Geology topics

H.A. Seligson

Publications and source records attributed to H.A. Seligson.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2018

Development of a domestic earthquake alert protocol combining the USGS pager and FEMA Hazus systems

The U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER automated alert system provides rapid (10-20 min) loss estimates in terms of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for all significant earthquakes around the globe. In contrast, FEMA’s Hazus software, which is currently operated manually by FEMA personnel internally within several hours of any large domestic earthquake, provides more detailed loss information quantified in terms of physical damage to the building stock, as well as a broad range of social and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolution (census-tract level). Hazus was originally designed for FEMA’s mitigation planning, but has been used of late for post-earthquake situational awareness. While the quick alerts generated automatically by the PAGER system are a suitable way to initially identify consequences for earthquakes, there remains a need to provide detailed loss information for facilitating a wider array of post-earthquake decisions among emergency managers. As such, we have developed a prototype summary product that takes advantage of the benefits of both these loss models for significant domestic earthquakes. The signature product, a new twoPAGER report, will serve as a supplement to the widely deployed standard onePAGER product for all significant domestic earthquakes. Page one is the standard, automated PAGER alert content, with summary alert levels for overall fatality and economic loss estimates, as well as summary content on recent earthquakes, structure vulnerability, and historical secondary hazards. As soon as the Hazus run using the most up-to-date version of the USGS ShakeMap is completed and reviewed by both agencies, the second alert page will be generated and delivered via the USGS website as an update. This second page will contain a summary of the more comprehensive Hazus model results, including spatially distributed estimates of: affected population, economic impact, non-fatal injuries, displaced households, and damage to structures (including potential building safety evaluation requirements). This enhancement does not affect the timeliness and the importance of the initial (onePAGER) alerting content for significant earthquakes; however, the twoPAGER report will provide more detailed, damage and loss/impact content for the Nation in the critical hours following a damaging earthquake.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a M w 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km 2 . A custom HAZUS ®MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes $ 87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total $ 191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shake-related building and content damage ( $ 46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages ( $ 24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study.

Calfornia↗

USGS2005

Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗