Geology topics

Guthrie S. Zimmerman

Publications and source records attributed to Guthrie S. Zimmerman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel ( Falco sparverius , hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s) largely unknown. As part of a collaborative effort to elucidate the drivers of kestrel population declines, we developed a continental-scale integrated population model using band-recovery data, productivity data, and Breeding Bird Survey indices from 1986 to 2019 to estimate indices of annual population sizes, survival, and productivity rates across the continental United States. We detected a decline in population size of ~1%–2% per year. Overall estimates of population growth from 1986 to 2019 suggest a 29% decline in population size (95% CI = −34% to −23%). There was little evidence of a trend in brood size. However, survival of juvenile birds (mean = −0.015, SD = 0.008 and mean = −0.024, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) and adult males (mean = −0.016, SD = 0.010) in the summer declined, suggesting that these vital rates could be contributing to declines in populations over time. Winter adult survival rates (mean = −0.004, SD = 0.009 and mean = −0.009, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) also declined but to a lesser extent than summer survival. For juvenile birds, winter survival increased (mean = 0.006, SD = 0.008 and mean = 0.002, SD = 0.009 for females and males, respectively); however, this was not enough to offset declines in summer survival and annual survival rates declined over the time series. Annual adult survival was also low relative to previous research on kestrel survival rates. Given the importance of survival to population trends, our findings provide support for several previously proposed broad classes of factors potentially contributing to observed population declines: declines in arthropod prey, second-generation rodenticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, and predation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2026

Status assessment of peregrine falcons in North America using integrated population models

Species status assessments require an understanding of underlying population dynamics and important drivers of species demography. Large-scale assessments can be difficult due to challenges collating data obtained through different methods and different sources at multiple scales. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework to combine multiple data sources and jointly estimate population parameters over a large spatiotemporal scale. We developed separate IPMs to estimate abundance and demographic rates for a northern (NMP) and southern (SMP) management population of peregrine falcons ( Falco peregrinus ) in North America from 2008 through 2019 (SMP) and 2020 (NMP). An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) starting in 2021 led us to extend our modeling effort to assess its impact on these management populations by updating both IPMs using index data of population size through 2024 in a predictive framework. Survival probabilities differed drastically between first-year and after-first-year individuals in both management populations. After-first-year survival was nearly identical between the NMP and SMP, but first-year survival was lower in the SMP. Mean productivity was significantly lower in the NMP compared to the SMP, whereas the probability of breeding was similar in both management populations. Estimated total abundance for the NMP was substantially larger than the SMP, representing most of the North American peregrine population. Population growth was positive for both management populations, albeit at a slower rate for the NMP. The NMP declined from 2017 to 2018 coinciding with a drop in 2018 estimated productivity. When we extended the IPMs with updated count data through 2024, the NMP slightly declined but estimated abundance remained above levels at the start of the time series analyzed. The SMP grew at a similar rate to that predicted during the period informed by demographic data. We did not detect a continental-scale change in population size or trajectory in either management population associated with the arrival of HPAI in 2021. Further monitoring can support determination of whether the declines in the NMP were temporary, can enhance understanding of the underlying mechanisms, and can be used to guide the conservation and management of the peregrine falcon population in North America.

North America↗

USGS2025

Estimated annual abundance of migratory Peale's Peregrine Falcons in coastal Washington, USA

Following the recovery of Peregrine Falcons ( Falco peregrinus ), the US Fish and Wildlife Service began a process to allow “take” (capture) of wild peregrines for falconry in the United States. Recently, that effort involved generating updated estimates of the collective abundance of the three North American peregrine subspecies: F. p. anatum , F. p. tundrius , and F. p. pealei (Peale's Peregrine Falcon). Because of the more limited distribution of F. p. pealei , we conducted an analysis specific to its geographic range. We analyzed data from a long-term banding and resighting program on three beaches on the southern coast of Washington, USA, to estimate the annual abundance of migrating and overwintering F. p. pealei , using the capture histories of 250 Peregrine Falcons, nearly all of which were captured during 1277 vehicle surveys between 1995 and 2024. Because we studied an open population of migratory individuals, we used a zero-inflated Poisson log-normal mark-resight model to estimate annual abundance. For the analyses, we partitioned our survey data into sighting periods, each of which extended from 1 September of one year to 31 May of the next. We anticipated that first-year F. p. pealei would be identified for falconry take, and our annual abundance estimates for first-year birds of this subspecies ranged from a high of 24.8 ± 6.1 (SE) individuals in the 2014–2015 sighting period to a low of 1.9 ± 1.4 individuals in the 2023–2024 sighting period. Peregrine Falcon abundance varied annually and appeared to decline during the last two sighting periods. Our sighting rate of marked peregrines was negatively associated with Bald Eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) encounter rate. There was a lesser relationship to human activity, and we suspect the change in sighting rate was a behavioral response by Peregrine Falcons to the threat of kleptoparasitism by Bald Eagles. We currently lack comprehensive information about the natal origin of the individual peregrines in our study area, which prevented us from assessing the degree to which falconry take from the pool of falcons migrating to or through Washington might potentially impact local or regional abundances. Although a better understanding of natal origins is needed, our data add clarity to the migration and overwinter abundance of F. p. pealei on the Washington coast and may inform decisions about the take of this subspecies for falconry.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Leveraging the strengths of citizen science and structured surveys to achieve scalable inference on population size

Population size is a key metric for management and policy decisions, yet wildlife monitoring programmes are often limited by the spatial and temporal scope of surveys. In these cases, citizen science data may provide complementary information at higher resolution and greater extent. We present a case study demonstrating how data from the eBird citizen science programme can be combined with regional monitoring efforts by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to produce high-resolution estimates of golden eagle abundance. We developed a model that uses aerial survey data from the western United States to calibrate high-resolution annual estimates of relative abundance from eBird. Using this model, we compared regional population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information with those based on aerial survey data alone. Population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information had strong correspondence to estimates from aerial survey data in two out of four regions, and population trajectories based on the two approaches showed high correlations. We demonstrate how the combination of citizen science data and targeted surveys can be used to (a) increase the spatial resolution of population size estimates, (b) extend the spatial extent of inference and (c) predict population size beyond the temporal period of surveys. Findings based on this case study can be used to refine policy metrics used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and inform permitting regulations (e.g. mortality/harm associated with wind energy development). Policy implications : Our results demonstrate the ability of citizen science data to complement targeted monitoring programmes and improve the efficacy of decision frameworks that require information on population size or trajectory. After validating citizen science data against survey-based benchmarks, agencies can harness strengths of citizen science data to supplement information needs and increase the resolution and extent of population size predictions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Survival rates of band-tailed pigeons estimated using passive integrated transponder tags

Obtaining survival estimates on the Interior population of band-tailed pigeons ( Patagioenas fasciata ) is challenging because they are trap shy, but the joint use of passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and bands is a potential solution. We investigated the use of PIT tags to passively recapture band-tailed pigeon at 3 locations in New Mexico, USA, to estimate survival. From 2013–2015, we captured, banded, and marked >600 individual band-tailed pigeons with PIT tags. To estimate annual survival rates, we used a Barker multi-state joint live and dead encounters and resighting model. Survival models excluding transience had survival estimates across site, sex, and year of 0.86 (95% CI = 0.84–0.88) for after hatch year birds and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.48–0.76) for hatch year birds. These results are consistent with other survival estimates reported for the Interior population of band-tailed pigeons using band return data and potentially provide an effective alternative method of monitoring survival of this population.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

Age-specific survival rates, causes of death, and allowable take of golden eagles in the western United States

In the United States, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act prohibits take of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) unless authorized by permit, and stipulates that all permitted take must be sustainable. Golden eagles are unintentionally killed in conjunction with many lawful activities (e.g., electrocution on power poles, collision with wind turbines). Managers who issue permits for incidental take of golden eagles must determine allowable take levels and manage permitted take accordingly. To aid managers in making these decisions in the western United States, we used an integrated population model to obtain estimates of golden eagle vital rates and population size, and then used those estimates in a prescribed take level (PTL) model to estimate the allowable take level. Estimated mean annual survival rates for golden eagles ranged from 0.70 (95% credible interval = 0.66–0.74) for first-year birds to 0.90 (0.88–0.91) for adults. Models suggested a high proportion of adult female golden eagles attempted to breed and breeding pairs fledged a mean of 0.53 (0.39–0.72) young annually. Population size in the coterminous western United States has averaged ~31,800 individuals for several decades, with λ = 1.0 (0.96–1.05). The PTL model estimated a median allowable take limit of ~2227 (708–4182) individuals annually given a management objective of maintaining a stable population. We estimate that take averaged 2572 out of 4373 (59%) deaths annually, based on a representative sample of transmitter-tagged golden eagles. For the subset of golden eagles that were recovered and a cause of death determined, anthropogenic mortality accounted for an average of 74% of deaths after their first year; leading forms of take over all age classes were shooting (~670 per year), collisions (~611), electrocutions (~506), and poisoning (~427). Although observed take overlapped the credible interval of our allowable take estimate and the population overall has been stable, our findings indicate that additional take, unless mitigated for, may not be sustainable. Our analysis demonstrates the utility of the joint application of integrated population and prescribed take level models to management of incidental take of a protected species.

western United States↗

USGS2022

Estimating allowable take for an increasing bald eagle population in the United States

Effectively managing take of wildlife resulting from human activities poses a major challenge for applied conservation. Demographic data essential to decisions regarding take are often expensive to collect and are either not available or based on limited studies for many species. Therefore, modeling approaches that efficiently integrate available information are important to improving the scientific basis for sustainable take thresholds. We used the prescribed take level (PTL) framework to estimate allowable take for bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) in the conterminous United States. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) that incorporates multiple sources of information and then use the model output as the scientific basis for components of the PTL framework. Our IPM is structured to identify key parameters needed for the PTL and to quantify uncertainties in those parameters at the scale at which the United States Fish and Wildlife Service manages take. Our IPM indicated that mean survival of birds >1 year old was high and precise (0.91, 95% CI = 0.90–0.92), whereas mean survival of first-year eagles was lower and more variable (0.69, 95% CI = 0.62–0.78). We assumed that density dependence influenced recruitment by affecting the probability of breeding, which was highly imprecise and estimated to have declined from approximately 0.988 (95% CI = 0.985–0.993) to 0.66 (95% CI = 0.34–0.99) between 1994 and 2018. We sampled values from the posterior distributions of the IPM for use in the PTL and estimated that allowable take (e.g., permitted take for energy development, incidental collisions with human made structures, or removal of nests for development) ranged from approximately 12,000 to 20,000 individual eagles depending on risk tolerance and form of density dependence at the scale of the conterminous United States excluding the Southwest. Model-based thresholds for allowable take can be inaccurate if the assumptions of the underlying framework are not met, if the influence of permitted take is under-estimated, or if undetected population declines occur from other sources. Continued monitoring and use of the IPM and PTL frameworks to identify key uncertainties in bald eagle population dynamics and management of allowable take can mitigate this potential bias, especially where improved information could reduce the risk of permitting non-sustainable take.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2022

The potential of semi-structured citizen science data as a supplement for conservation decision-making: Validating the performance of eBird against targeted avian monitoring efforts

Methods are being developed to capitalize on citizen science data for research and monitoring, but these data are rarely used within established decision-making frameworks of wildlife agencies. Citizen science data are often collected at higher resolution and extent than targeted monitoring programs, and may provide complementary information. Here, we demonstrate that carefully filtered semi-structured citizen science observations, when paired with targeted survey data, can produce ecological predictions at higher resolution and extent than targeted surveys alone, and both datasets can represent complementary aspects of species' ecology. We present case studies demonstrating how citizen science data can enhance or supplement decision-making of government and conservation organizations. First, we show how the continuous spatial coverage of citizen science projects, when coupled with targeted surveys, can improve estimates of metrics used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in regulatory processes to estimate population size, and inform take limits of federally managed species nationwide. Second, we show that the spatial coverage of citizen science accommodates dynamic avian space use patterns during key times of the year, relative to standardized monitoring protocols carried out by the Illinois Natural History Survey. Lastly, we demonstrate that citizen science information can replicate estimates of migratory chronologies for the Illinois Natural History Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for some waterfowl species, and in some contexts can supplement missing data on abundance. These findings illustrate the value of integrating validated information from semi-structured citizen science into the current evidence base used to justify, inform, and evaluate conservation decision-making.

California, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri↗

USGS2021

Evaluation of a two-season banding program to estimate and model migratory bird survival

The management of North American waterfowl is predicated on long-term, continental scale banding implemented prior to the hunting season (i.e., July–September) and subsequent reporting of bands recovered by hunters. However, single-season banding and encounter operations have a number of characteristics that limit their application to estimating demographic rates and evaluating hypothesized limiting factors throughout the annual cycle. We designed and implemented a 2-season banding program for American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ), mallards ( A . platyrhynchos ), and hybrids in eastern North America to evaluate potential application to annual life cycle conservation and sport harvest management. We assessed model fit and compared estimates of annual survival among data types (i.e., pre-hunting season only [July–September], post-hunting season only [January–March], and 2-season [pre- and post-hunting season]) to evaluate model assumptions and potential application to population modeling and management. There was generally high agreement between estimates of annual survival derived using 2-season and pre-season only data for all age and sex cohorts. Estimates of annual survival derived from post-season banding data only were consistently higher for adult females and juveniles of both sexes. We found patterns of seasonal survival varied by species, age, and to a lesser extent, sex. Hunter recovered birds exhibited similar spatial distributions regardless of banding season suggesting banded samples were from the same population. In contrast, Goodness-Of-Fit tests suggest this assumption was statistically violated in some regions and years. We conclude that estimates of seasonal and annual survival for black ducks and mallards based on the 2-season banding program are valid and accurate based on model fit statistics, similarity in survival estimates across data and models, and similarities in the distribution of recoveries. The 2-season program provides greater precision and insight into the survival process and will improve the ability of researchers and managers to test competing hypotheses regarding population regulation resulting in more effective management.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2020

Detection probabilities of bird carcasses along sandy beaches and marsh edges in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We estimated detection probabilities of bird carcasses along sandy beaches and in marsh edge habitats in the northern Gulf of Mexico to help inform models of bird mortality associated with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We also explored factors that may influence detection probability, such as carcass size, amount of scavenging, location on the beach, habitat type, and distance into the marsh. Detection probability for medium-sized carcasses (200–500 g) ranged from 0.82 (SE = 0.09) to 0.93 (SE = 0.04) along sandy beaches. Within sandy beaches, we found that intact/slightly scavenged carcasses were easier to detect than heavily scavenged ones and did not find strong effects of location on the beach on detection probability. We estimated detection rate for each combination of scavenging state, carcass size, and position along sandy beaches. In marsh edge habitats, detection ranged from 0.04 (SE = 0.04) to 0.86 (SE = 0.10), with detection rates rapidly increasing from small (< 200 g) to medium carcass sizes and leveling off between medium and extra-large (> 1000 g) carcasses regardless of vegetation type ( Spartina or Phragmites ). Carcasses of all sizes were generally harder to locate in Spartina -dominated marshes than in Phragmites -dominated ones. A subset of the data for which we could adequately assess the effect of distance into the marsh indicated that detection rates generally declined the farther a carcass was into marsh vegetation. Based on power analyses, our ability to identify predictors that influence detection rates would be higher with larger numbers of carcasses, greater numbers of search trials per carcass, or more balanced sampling distributions across predictor values.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2020

Using integrated population models for insights into monitoring programs: An application using pink-footed geese

Development of integrated population models (IPMs) assume the absence of systematic bias in monitoring programs, yet many potential sources of systematic bias in monitoring data exist (e.g., under-counts of abundance). By integrating multiple sources of data, we can assess whether various sources of monitoring data provide consistent inferences about changes in population size and, thus, whether monitoring programs appear unbiased. For the purposes of understanding how IPMs could provide insights for monitoring programs, we used the Svalbard breeding population of pink-footed goose ( Anser brachyrhynchus ) as a case study. The Svalbard pink-footed goose is a well-studied species, the focus of the first adaptive-harvest-management program in Europe, and the subject of a variety of long-term monitoring programs. We examined two formulations of an IPM, but ultimately relied on the one that provided a satisfactory fit to all the available data as based on Chi-squared goodness of fit tests. Our analyses suggest a negative bias in November counts (-20 %), a negative bias in capture-mark-recapture estimates of survival (-3 %), and a negative bias in indices of productivity (-23 %). We offer possible explanations for these biases, whether the degree of bias seems reasonable considering those explanations, and how bias might be investigated directly and ultimately avoided or corrected. Finally, we discuss implications of our work for developing IPMs and associated monitoring programs for managing pink-footed geese and other waterbird species.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2019

Multi-species duck harvesting using dynamic programming and multi-criteria decision analysis

1.Multiple species are often exposed to a common hunting season, but harvest and population objectives may not be fully achieved if harvest potential varies among species and/or species abundances are not correlated through time. Our goal was to develop an approach for setting a common hunting season that would recognize heterogeneity in species productivity and would select annual hunting seasons conditioned on the status of individual species. 2.We first used stochastic dynamic programming to generate optimal, state‐dependent harvest strategies for 18 candidate regulatory scenarios. We simulated the performance of these strategies, and then used multi‐criteria decision making to identify preferred regulatory scenarios for duck hunting seasons in the Atlantic Flyway of the U.S. 3.Generally, estimates of annual population size were not correlated among species. Mallards had the highest estimated intrinsic rate of growth, green‐winged teal, wood ducks, and ring‐necked ducks had intermediate values, and goldeneyes were the least productive. Estimated carrying capacity was highest for mallards and lowest for green‐winged teal. 4.Managers had greatest interest in maximizing season length (33%) and aggregate duck abundance (28%), and less interest in maximizing aggregate harvest (19%) and the number of years between a change in hunting season regulations (19%). Several regulatory scenarios provided acceptable tradeoffs among these objectives. 5.Synthesis and applications. Separate hunting seasons for various species of game may be untenable, either due to the added cost and regulatory complexity, or because selective harvesting of stocks may be difficult due to problems in species identification. Rather than averaging species‐specific productivities, or basing hunting seasons on the least (or most) productive species, we describe an approach in which productivity and annual population status are considered explicitly for each species. By combining stochastic dynamic programming with multi‐criteria decision analysis, we can identify a regulatory strategy that can address a diverse set of objectives and explicitly recognize the tradeoffs among them. To meet the Atlantic Flyway's objectives as identified by waterfowl managers, our results suggest a regulatory strategy in which the harvest is targeted at 98% of aggregate maximum sustainable yield, most emphasis is placed on accumulating harvests of mallards and wood ducks, and by using a set of regulatory options that are more conservative than those currently in use.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2019

Survival rates and stopover persistence of American Woodcock using Cape May, New Jersey during fall migration

Cape May, New Jersey is an important stopover area for American woodcock ( Scolopax minor , hereafter woodcock) during fall migration along the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Previous research has indicated that many woodcock stop at Cape May prior to crossing Delaware Bay; however, little is known about survival of woodcock while using Cape May. To better understand woodcock survival on Cape May during fall migration and estimate emigration rates for woodcock migrating through Cape May, we captured and marked a total of 271 woodcock with VHF transmitters and radio-tracked them weekly from November through early January, 2010-2013. Of the 271 marked woodcock, our radio-tracking efforts indicated that 131 migrated from Cape May, 57 remained on Cape May, 72 died, and 11 were censored. We used a multi-state model within Program MARK to estimate weekly survival and emigration probabilities for marked woodcock. Our best-supported model indicated that survival rate varied by year, but was constant by week within years. Weekly survival rate estimates ranged from 0.894 (95% CI = 0.834 – 0.934) in 2010 to 0.962 (95% CI = 0.928 – 0.981) in 2011, which equates to a 9-week period survival rate ranging from 0.365 (95% CI = 0.185 – 0.545) to 0.706 (95% CI = 0.541 – 0.870), respectively. The 2010-2011 field season was marked by several large snowstorms during which a large percentage of marked woodcock died, whereas the other 3 years had more mild conditions and higher woodcock survival rates. Our best-supported model indicated that weekly emigration rates varied by year and week with each year showing a different pattern of emigration from Cape May. Survival and emigration information will be useful in the development of future demographic-based population models for woodcock migrating along the Atlantic Coast.

New Jersey↗

USGS2018

Allowable take of black vultures in the eastern United States

Black vultures ( Coragyps atratus ) have been increasing in density and expanding their range in the eastern United States since at least the 1960s. In many areas, their densities have increased to the level where they are causing damage to property and livestock and the number of requests for allowable take permits has increased throughout these areas. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) requires updated information to help inform the number of take permits that could reduce conflicts while meeting obligations under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. We expanded analyses used to estimate allowable take in Virginia to cover the range of black vultures in the eastern United States. We used the prescribed take level approach, which integrates demographic rates, population size estimates, and management objectives into an estimate of allowable take. We provide estimates of allowable take at 4 different scales: individual states, Bird Conservation Regions, USFWS administrative regions, and flyways. Our updated population time series provides evidence of rapidly increasing black vulture populations in many regions of the eastern United States, with an overall population estimate of approximately 4.26 million in 2015 in the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyways. Estimated allowable take ranged from a few hundred individuals per year in states at the northern end of the species range to approximately 287,000/year over the entire eastern United States. The USFWS has no legal mandate regarding the spatial scale at which take should be managed and we found little biological evidence of subpopulation structure for black vultures in the eastern United States. We suggest that allowable take for the species be implemented at a scale that meets stakeholder objectives (e.g., reducing conflict, and ensuring that black vultures are not extirpated from local areas) and is efficient for administrative and monitoring purposes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Evaluation of harvest and information needs for North American sea ducks

Wildlife managers routinely seek to establish sustainable limits of sport harvest or other regulated forms of take while confronted with considerable uncertainty. A growing body of ecological research focuses on methods to describe and account for uncertainty in management decision-making and to prioritize research and monitoring investments to reduce the most influential uncertainties. We used simulation methods incorporating measures of demographic uncertainty to evaluate risk of overharvest and prioritize information needs for North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini ). Sea ducks are popular game birds in North America, yet they are poorly monitored and their population dynamics are poorly understood relative to other North American waterfowl. There have been few attempts to assess the sustainability of harvest of North American sea ducks, and no formal harvest strategy exists in the U.S. or Canada to guide management. The popularity of sea duck hunting, extended hunting opportunity for some populations (i.e., special seasons and/or bag limits), and population declines have led to concern about potential overharvest. We used Monte Carlo simulation to contrast estimates of allowable harvest and observed harvest and assess risk of overharvest for 7 populations of North American sea ducks: the American subspecies of common eider ( Somateria mollissima dresseri ), eastern and western populations of black scoter ( Melanitta americana ) and surf scoter ( M . perspicillata ), and continental populations of white-winged scoter ( M . fusca ) and long-tailed duck ( Clangula hyemalis ). We combined information from empirical studies and the opinions of experts through formal elicitation to create probability distributions reflecting uncertainty in the individual demographic parameters used in this assessment. Estimates of maximum growth ( r max ), and therefore of allowable harvest, were highly uncertain for all populations. Long-tailed duck and American common eider appeared to be at high risk of overharvest (i.e., observed harvest < allowable harvest in 5–7% and 19–26% of simulations, respectively depending on the functional form of density dependence), whereas the other populations appeared to be at moderate risk to low risk (observed harvest < allowable harvest in 22–68% of simulations, again conditional on the form of density dependence). We also evaluated the sensitivity of the difference between allowable and observed harvest estimates to uncertainty in individual demographic parameters to prioritize information needs. We found that uncertainty in overall fecundity had more influence on comparisons of allowable and observed harvest than adult survival or observed harvest for all species except long-tailed duck. Although adult survival was characterized by less uncertainty than individual components of fecundity, it was identified as a high priority information need given the sensitivity of growth rate and allowable harvest to this parameter. Uncertainty about population size was influential in the comparison of observed and allowable harvest for 5 of the 6 populations where it factored into the assessment. While this assessment highlights a high degree of uncertainty in allowable harvest, it provides a framework for integration of improved data from future research and monitoring. It could also serve as the basis for harvest strategy development as management objectives and regulatory alternatives are specified by the management community.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2017

Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks ( Aix sponsa ) are important harvested birds in the Atlantic Flyway (AF) that are difficult to detect during aerial surveys because they prefer forested habitat. We integrated Wood Duck count data from a ground-plot survey in the northeastern U.S. with AF-wide BBS, banding, parts collection, and harvest data to derive estimates of population size for the AF. Overlapping results between the smaller-scale intensive ground-plot survey and the BBS in the northeastern U.S. provided a means for scaling BBS indices to the breeding population size estimates. We applied these scaling factors to BBS results for portions of the AF lacking intensive surveys. Banding data provided estimates of annual survival and harvest rates; the latter, when combined with parts-collection data, provided estimates of recruitment. We used the harvest data to estimate fall population size. Our estimates of breeding population size and variability from the integrated population model (N̄ = 0.99 million, SD = 0.04) were similar to estimates of breeding population size based solely on data from the AF ground-plot surveys and the BBS (N̄ = 1.01 million, SD = 0.04) from 1998 to 2015. Integrating BBS data with other data provided reliable population size estimates for Wood Ducks at a scale useful for harvest and habitat management in the AF, and allowed us to derive estimates of important demographic parameters (e.g., seasonal survival rates, sex ratio) that were not directly informed by data.

The Condor↗

USGS2016

State-dependent resource harvesting with lagged information about system states

Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest) even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2016

A full annual cycle modeling framework for American black ducks

American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density-dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.

Natural Resource Modeling↗