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Gregg J. Wiche

Publications and source records attributed to Gregg J. Wiche.

29 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1996

Lake levels, streamflow, and surface-water quality in the Devils Lake area, North Dakota

The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-square-mile (mi 2 ) closed basin (fig. 1) in the Red River of the North Basin. About 3,320 mi 2 of the total 3,810 mi 2 is tributary to Devils Lake; the remainder is tributary to Stump Lake. Since glaciation, the lake level of Devils Lake has fluctuated from about 1,457 feet (ft) above sea level (asl), the natural spill elevation of the lake to the Sheyenne River, to 1,400 ft asl (Aronow, 1957). Although no documented records of lake levels are available before 1867, Upham (1895, p. 595), on the basis of tree-ring chronology, indicated that the lake level was 1,441 ft asl in 1830. Lake levels were recorded sporadically from 1867 to 1901 when the U.S. Geological Survey established a gaging station on Devils Lake. From 1867 to the present (1996), the lake level has fluctuated between a maximum of 1,438.4 ft asl in 1867 and a minimum of 1,400.9 ft asl in 1940 (fig. 2) . On July 31, 1996, the lake level was 1,437.8 ft asl, about 15.2 ft higher than the level recorded in February 1993 and the highest level in about 120 years. Since 1993, the lake level of Devils Lake (fig. 2) has risen rapidly in response to above-normal precipitation from the summer of 1993 to the present, and 30,000 acres of land around the lake have been flooded. The above-normal precipitation also has caused flooding elsewhere in the Devils Lake Basin. State highways near Devils Lake are being raised, and some local roads have been closed because of flooding. In response to the flooding, the Devils Lake Basin Interagency Task Force, comprised of many State and Federal agencies, was formed in 1995 to find and propose intermediate (5 years or less) solutions to reduce the effects of high lake levels. In addition to various planning studies being conducted by Federal agencies, the North Dakota State Water Commission has implemented a project to store water on small tracts of land and in the chain of lakes (Sweetwater Lake, Morrison Lake, Dry Lake, Mikes Lake, Chain Lake, Lake Alice, and Lake Irvine). Most of the planning studies include options to store water in the Devils Lake Basin and to provide an outlet to the Sheyenne River via Devils Lake or the Stump Lakes. If an outlet is constructed, water-quantity and -quality issues will be considered in designing the operating plan. Therefore, current and accurate hydrologic information is needed to assess the viability of the various options to lower the level of Devils Lake.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1996

Variations in surface-water quantity and quality as a result of the 1993 summer flood in the Devils Lake basin, North Dakota

Greater-than-normal precipitation during the summer of 1993 affected the hydrologic response and surface-water quality in the Devils Lake Basin. Large areas in the basin were flooded as a result of the precipitation, and water from these areas drained slowly through the chain of lakes into Devils Lake. This report summarizes the results of surface-water quantity and quality monitoring designed to document the effects of flooding in the Devils Lake Basin. Specific objectives are (1) to document the quantity and quality of streamflow in the Devils Lake Basin immediately before, during, and after the 1993 flood and (2) to document the hydrologic and chemical changes in the upstream chain of lakes and in Devils Lake during April through October 1993. Precipitation during June through August ranged from about 17 inches in the Mauvais Coulee subbasin to about 21.4 inches in the Edmore Coulee subbasin. Streamflow measured for Edmore Coulee Tributary indicated that 12.2 inches of runoff occurred during April through October 1993. This is one of the greatest runoffs in North Dakota for which records are available. During April through September, the cumulative volume of inflow to the chain of lakes was about 8 percent of the cumulative volume of rainfall and the measured cumulative volume of outflow from the chain of lakes was about 7 percent of the cumulative volume of rainfall. The cumulative volume of water stored in the chain of lakes increased from 6,350 acre-feet in April to 82,300 acre-feet in August and then decreased to 24,400 acre-feet in October. Devils Lake rose from 1,423.0 feet above sea level on June 10 to 1,427.0 feet above sea level on September 28, largely in response to direct precipitation on the lake. Nutrient concentrations for coulees that flow into the chain of lakes generally were at a maximum during the spring and a minimum during the late summer and fall. About 37 percent of the dissolved-solids load and about 43 percent of the total ammonia plus organic nitrogen load was attributed to Edmore Coulee Tributary. Between May and October, increases in the total ammonia plus organic nitrogen mass for the chain of lakes ranged from about 39 to 133 percent. Increases in the total phosphorus mass ranged from about 43 to 157 percent. Decreases in dissolved-solids concentrations from May to early August ranged from about 77 percent in Sixmile Bay to about 9 percent in Main Bay, Creel Bay, and East Devils Lake. Decreases in the dissolved-solids concentrations in Devils Lake and East Devils Lake may have been the result of dilution by direct precipitation. However, during the same period, dissolvedsolids concentrations increased about 6 percent in East Bay. Between May and October, the dissolved-solids mass for Devils Lake and East Devils Lake increased 500 million kilograms. Only about 25 percent of the increase can be attributed to streamflow. The total ammonia plus organic nitrogen mass for Devils Lake and East Devils Lake increased about 38 percent between May and October, and the total phosphorus mass increased about 79 percent.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1996

Lake-level frequency analysis for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Two approaches were used to estimate future lake-level probabilities for Devils Lake. The first approach is based on an annual lake-volume model, and the second approach is based on a statistical water mass-balance model that generates seasonal lake volumes on the basis of seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Autoregressive moving average models were used to model the annual mean lake volume and the difference between the annual maximum lake volume and the annual mean lake volume. Residuals from both models were determined to be uncorrelated with zero mean and constant variance. However, a nonlinear relation between the residuals of the two models was included in the final annual lakevolume model. Because of high autocorrelation in the annual lake levels of Devils Lake, the annual lake-volume model was verified using annual lake-level changes. The annual lake-volume model closely reproduced the statistics of the recorded lake-level changes for 1901-93 except for the skewness coefficient. However, the model output is less skewed than the data indicate because of some unrealistically large lake-level declines. The statistical water mass-balance model requires as inputs seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for Devils Lake. Analysis of annual precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for 1950-93 revealed no significant trends or long-range dependence so the input time series were assumed to be stationary and short-range dependent. Normality transformations were used to approximately maintain the marginal probability distributions; and a multivariate, periodic autoregressive model was used to reproduce the correlation structure. Each of the coefficients in the model is significantly different from zero at the 5-percent significance level. Coefficients relating spring inflow from one year to spring and fall inflows from the previous year had the largest effect on the lake-level frequency analysis. Inclusion of parameter uncertainty in the model for generating precipitation, evaporation, and inflow indicates that the upper lake-level exceedance levels from the water mass-balance model are particularly sensitive to parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity in the upper exceedance levels was caused almost entirely by uncertainty in the fitted probability distributions of the quarterly inflows. A method was developed for using long-term streamflow data for the Red River of the North at Grand Forks to reduce the variance in the estimated mean. Comparison of the annual lake-volume model and the water mass-balance model indicates the upper exceedance levels of the water mass-balance model increase much more rapidly than those of the annual lake-volume model. As an example, for simulation year 5, the 99-percent exceedance for the lake level is 1,417.6 feet above sea level for the annual lake-volume model and 1,423.2 feet above sea level for the water mass-balance model. The rapid increase is caused largely by the record precipitation and inflow in the summer and fall of 1993. Because the water mass-balance model produces lake-level traces that closely match the hydrology of Devils Lake, the water mass-balance model is superior to the annual lake-volume model for computing exceedance levels for the 50-year planning horizon.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS1995

Lake-level frequency analysis for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Two approaches were used to estimate future lake-level probabilities for Devils Lake. The first approach is based on an annual lake-volume model, and the second approach is based on a statistical water mass-balance model that generates seasonal lake volumes on the basis of seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Autoregressive moving average models were used to model the annual mean lake volume and the difference between the annual maximum lake volume and the annual mean lake volume. Residuals from both models were determined to be uncorrelated with zero mean and constant variance. However, a nonlinear relation between the residuals of the two models was included in the final annual lake-volume model. Because of high autocorrelation in the annual lake levels of Devils Lake, the annual lakevolume model was verified using annual lake-level changes. The annual lake-volume model closely reproduced the statistics of the recorded lake-level changes for 1901-93 except for the skewness coefficient However, the model output is less skewed than the data indicate because of some unrealistically large lake-level declines. The statistical water mass-balance model requires as inputs seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for Devils Lake. Analysis of annual precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for 1950-93 revealed no significant trends or long-range dependence so the input time series were assumed to be stationary and short-range dependent. Normality transformations were used to approximately maintain the marginal probability distributions; and a multivariate, periodic autoregressive model was used to reproduce the correlation structure. Each of the coefficients in the model is significantly different from zero at the 5-percent significance level. Coefficients relating spring inflow from one year to spring and fall inflows from the previous year had the largest effect on the lake-level frequency analysis. Inclusion of parameter uncertainty in the model for generating precipitation, evaporation, and inflow indicates that the upper lake-level exceedance levels from the water mass-balance model are particularly sensitive to parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity in the upper exceedance levels was caused almost entirely by uncertainty in the fitted probability distributions of the quarterly inflows. A method was developed for using long-term streamflow data for the Red River of the North at Grand Forks to reduce the variance in the estimated mean. Comparison of the annual lake-volume model and the water mass-balance model indicates the upper exceedance levels of the water mass-balance model increase much more rapidly than those of the annual lake-volume model. As an example, for simulation year 5, the 99-percent exceedance for the lake level is 1,417.6 feet above sea level for the annual lake-volume model and 1,423.2 feet above sea level for the water mass-balance model. The rapid increase is caused largely by the record precipitation and inflow in the summer and fall of 1993. Because the water mass-balance model produces lake-level traces that closely match the hydrology of Devils Lake, the water mass-balance model is superior to the annual lake-volume model for computing exceedance levels for the 50-year planning horizon.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1993

Precipitation in the upper Mississippi River basin, January 1 through July 31, 1993

Excessive precipitation produced severe flooding in a nine-State area in the upper Mississippi River Basin during spring and summer 1993. Following a spring that was wetter than average, weather patterns that persisted from early June through July caused the upper Midwest to be deluged with an unusually large amount of rainfall. Monthly precipitation data were examined at 10 weather-station locations in the flood-affected region to illustrate precipitation patterns and amounts in the flood-affected area. In 1993, all 10 of the selected locations received greater than the normal rainfall for January through June 1961-90, 8 of the 10 locations received more than 200 percent of the normal rainfall for July 1961-90, and 3 received more than 400 percent of the normal rainfall for July. (The average rainfall for any given 30-year period is termed the 'normal' rainfall for the given period.) May through July 1993 was the wettest or nearly the wettest such period on record at many locations in the flooded area. Of the 10 locations, 6 received more rainfall in the first 7 months of 1993 than generally is received in a year.

upper Mississippi River basin↗
USGS1989

Streamflow at selected gaging stations on the James River in North Dakota and South Dakota, 1953-82, with a section on climatology

Historic stream flow data were compiled and record extension techniques were used, when necessary, to develop a monthly stream flow record for 1953-82 at streamflow-gaging stations on the James River in North Dakota and South Dakota. The record extension techniques included both Maintenance of Variance Extension Type 1 and Ordinary Least Squares. In addition to the historic stream flow record, synthesized unregulated streamflow was computed for gaging stations on the James River for 1953-82 by eliminating the effects of Jamestown Reservoir, Pipestem Reservoir, Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge, and the consumptive surface-water withdrawals. Maintenance of Variance Extension Type 1, Ordinary Least Squares regression, water-balance procedures, and drainage-area ratio methods were used to compute the unregulated streamflows. Mean annual historic stream flow of the James River at Jamestown is about 7,000 acre-feet less than the mean annual unregulated streamflow. Mean monthly unregulated streamflow is greater than mean monthly historic streamflow during March, April, and May; during all other months, unregulated stream flow is less than historic streamflow. The climate during 1953-82 was compared to the climate records, which range in length from 53 to 102 years, in the James River basin to determine if the climate during 1953-82 was similar to the climate that has occurred during the last 90 years. On the basis of the climate analysis, the data-development period (1953-82) does not represent an abnormally wet or dry period. Thus, the streamflow during the data-development period represents a range of streamflows that might be expected to occur during the last 90 years.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1988

Hydrology of the chain of lakes tributary to Devils Lake and water-level simulations of Devils Lake, northeastern North Dakota

High water levels of the chain of lakes tributary to Devils Lake, North Dakota have, in recent years, caused flooding of cropland and county roads, thus disrupting agricultural interests. High water levels of Devils Lake pose a flood threat to the city of Devils Lake, Camp Grafton National Guard Camp, and road, sewer, and lagoon systems of several communities. The chain of lakes acts as an evaporation and storage basin. During the spring and summer of 1985, about 25,980 acre-feet of runoff flowed into the chain of lakes from upstream tributaries. About 10,180 acre-feet (about 39 percent) of that runoff flowed out of the chain of lakes. By September 30, 1985, about 440 acre-feet (less than 2 percent of the runoff that flowed into the chain of lakes) remained in storage in the chain of lakes upstream of Devils Lake. The other 15,360 acre-feet (about 59 percent of the runoff that flowed into the chain of lakes) was removed from the chain of lakes, mainly by evaporation. High-runoff conditions for Devils Lake were simulated on the basis of records of hydrologic and climatologic data for the years 1985-2032, and a low-runoff condition for Devils Lake was simulated for the years 1985-1990. The January 1985 water level of 1,426.12 feet above sea level was used for the initial lake level. A combination of storage conditions in the upstream chain of lakes and different hydrologic and climatologic variables were used for the high-runoff-condition simulations. For existing storage conditions in the chain of lakes, Devils Lake would have a maximum water level ranging from 1,432.0 to 1,442.6 feet above sea level. For midlevel storage conditions, maximum water levels of Devils Lake would range from 1,432.4 to 1,441.4 feet above sea level. For highlevel storage conditions, maximum water levels of Devils Lake would range from 1,431.3 to 1,439.9 feet above sea level. The low-runoff condition simulation indicates that Devils Lake would have a minimum water level of 1,420.7 feet above sea level.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1988

Analysis of alternative modifications for reducing backwater at the Interstate Highway 10 crossing of the Pearl River near Slidell, Louisiana

In April 1979 and April 1980, major flooding along the lower Pearl River caused extensive damage to homes located on the flood plain in the Slidell, Louisiana, area. In response to questions about causes of these floods and means of mitigating future floods, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Office of Highways, and the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, used a two-dimensional finite-element surface-water flow-modeling system to study the effect of four alternative modifications for improving the hydraulic characteristics of the Interstate Highway 10 crossing of the flood plain near Slidell. The analysis used the model's capability to simulate changes in flood-plain topography, flood-plain vegetative cover, and highway-embankment geometry. Compared with the existing highway crossing, the four alternative modifications reduce backwater and average velocities through bridge openings for a flood of the magnitude of the 1980 flood. The four alternatives also eliminate roadway overtopping during such a flood. For the four modifications, maximum backwater on the west side of the flood plain ranges from 0.3 to 1.1 feet and on the east side from 0.3 to 0.7 foot. Results of the alternative-model simulations show that backwater is greater on the west side of the flood plain than on the east side, but upstream from Interstate Highway 10 backwater decreases more rapidly in the upstream direction on the west side of the flood plain than on the east side. Downstream from Interstate Highway 10, modeling of the four alternatives indicates that backwater and drawdown still occur on the east and west sides of the flood plain, respectively, but are less than the values computed for the April 1980 flood with Interstate Highway 10 in place. In addition to other highway-crossing modifications, alternatives 2 and 3 include simulation of a new 2,000-foot bridge opening, and ,alternative 4 includes simulation of a 1,000-foot bridge opening. The new bridge conveys 25, 23, and 21 percent of the total computed discharge in alternatives 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The average velocity through the new bridge is 2.0, 1.9, and 3.4 feet per second for alternatives 2, 3, and 4, respectively.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS1986

Hydrologic and climatologic factors affecting water levels of Devils Lake, North Dakota

High water levels of Devils Lake, North Dakota, and other terminal lakes, have, in recent years, threatened highways, agricultural land, recreational cabins, and communities located near these lakes. This study was undertaken to describe the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin and to determine how to estimate future water level probabilities. Analysis of the available hydrologic and climatologic data indicates the water level of Devils Lake fluctuates largely in response to climatic variability. Average annual net storage gain has varied from 70 ,000 acre-feet for 1969-83 to as little as 4,530 acre-feet for 1931-40. In addition to the influence of climatic variability on the inflow to Devils Lake, an interconnected chain of lakes upstream of Devils Lake retains runoff and acts as an evaporation basin for runoff from the Devils Lake basin. During 1965-67, at least 112,000 acre-feet of water was stored in this upstream chain of lakes. A review of research conducted on other terminal lakes indicated that the water level in these lakes fluctuated primarily in response to climate variability. There is agreement between water level fluctuations of terminal lakes in Western North America and water level fluctuations of Devils lake during times of climatic extremes. No standardized methods are available for computing water level probabilities of terminal lakes. Most of the development of a method for determining future water level probabilities has been focused on Great Salt Lake, Utah. A number of techniques have been used to estimate the future water-level probabilities for Great Salt Lake; however, they provide a wide range in probability of occurrence for any given water level. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗