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Greg Balco

Publications and source records attributed to Greg Balco.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Cosmogenic 21Ne exposure ages on late Pleistocene moraines in Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, USA

We report new cosmogenic 21 Ne in quartz exposure ages from 18 samples on three distinct moraines deposited in the Lost Creek drainage, approximately 3–7 km down-valley from Lassen Peak in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Although measuring 21 Ne in quartz is generally straightforward, accurate 21 Ne exposure dating of deposits of late Pleistocene is rarely possible due to the significant quantities of non-cosmogenic 21 Ne present in most lithologies. Young quartz-bearing volcanic rocks have been observed to be an exception. We take advantage of moraine boulders sourced from the ∼ 28 ka dacite of Lassen Peak to generate a chronology of alpine deglaciation in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Ages from three distinct moraines are in stratigraphic order at 22.1 ± 3.8, 20.2 ± 2.4, and 15.3 ± 3.8 ka and generally agree with other terminal and some recessional moraine ages across the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada of the western United States. To date, these are among the youngest surfaces ever dated using cosmogenic 21 Ne and provide a cost-effective proof-of-concept approach to dating moraines where applicable.

California

Validation of earthquake ground-motion models in southern California, USA, using precariously balanced rocks

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10 Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The ground-motion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid ground-motion model resulted in a 2–7% reduction in the mean and a 10–36% reduction in the 5th–95th fractile uncertainty of the ground-motion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates.

California