Geology topics

Gari C. Mayberry

Publications and source records attributed to Gari C. Mayberry.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano , Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

Sinabung volcano↗

USGS2008

Volcanic hazards to airports

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies, Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries—USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom—have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2008

Compilation of Disruptions to Airports by Volcanic Activity (Version 1.0, 1944-2006)

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. To more fully characterize the nature and scope of volcanic hazards to airports, we collected data on incidents of airports throughout the world that have been affected by volcanic activity, beginning in 1944 with the first documented instance of damage to modern aircraft and facilities in Naples, Italy, and extending through 2006. Information was gleaned from various sources, including news outlets, volcanological reports (particularly the Smithsonian Institution's Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network), and previous publications on the topic. This report presents the full compilation of the data collected. For each incident, information about the affected airport and the volcanic source has been compiled as a record in a Microsoft Access database. The database is incomplete in so far as incidents may not have not been reported or documented, but it does present a good sample from diverse parts of the world. Not included are en-route diversions to avoid airborne ash clouds at cruise altitudes. The database has been converted to a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. To make the PDF version of table 1 in this open-file report resemble the spreadsheet, order the PDF pages as 12, 17, 22; 13, 18, 23; 14, 19, 24; 15, 20, 25; and 16, 21, 26. Analysis of the database reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were impacted on 171 occasions from 1944 through 2006 by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. The number of affected airports (101) probably is better constrained than the number of incidents (171) because recurring disruptions at a given airport may have been lumped together or not reported by news agencies, whereas the initial disruption likely is noticed and reported and thus the airport correctly counted.

Open-File Report↗