Geology topics

G.T. Pederson

Publications and source records attributed to G.T. Pederson.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2011

Northern Hemisphere modes of variability and the timing of spring in western North America

Spatial and temporal patterns of variability in spring onset are identified across western North America using a spring index (SI) model based on weather station minimum and maximum temperatures ( T min and T max , respectively). Principal component analysis shows that two significant and independent patterns explain roughly half of the total variance in the timing of spring onset from 1920 to 2005. However, these patterns of spring onset do not appear to be linear responses to the primary modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere: the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) and the northern annular mode (NAM). Instead, over the period when reanalysis data and the spring index model overlap (1950–2005), the patterns of spring onset are local responses to the state of both the PNA and NAM, which together modulate the onset date of spring by 10–20 days on interannual time scales. They do so by controlling the number and intensity of warm days. There is also a regionwide trend in spring advancement of about −1.5 days decade −1 from 1950 to 2005. Trends in the NAM and PNA can only explain about one-third (−0.5 day decade −1 ) of this trend.

Western United States and Canada↗

USGS2009

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2008

Spatial reconstructions and comparisons of historic snow avalanche frequency and extent using tree rings in Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.

Natural snow avalanches have periodically damaged infrastructure and disrupted railroad and highway traffic at the southwestern corner of Glacier National Park, Montana. The 94-year history of these disruptions constitutes an uncommon record of natural avalanches spanning over nine decades and presents a unique opportunity to examine how natural avalanche frequency and minimum extent have varied over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. This study compared the historic record of natural avalanches in one avalanche path with tree-ring evidence of avalanches from 109 cross sections and increment cores collected in the same path. Results from combined historic and tree-ring records yielded 27 avalanche years in the 1910-2003 chronology, with the historic record alone underestimating avalanche years by half. Mean return period was 3.2 years. Interpolated maps allowed for more spatially precise estimates of return periods throughout the runout zone than previous studies. The maps show return periods increase rapidly downslope from 2.3 to 25 years. Avalanche years were associated with positive Snow Water Equivalent anomalies at a nearby snow course. Minimum avalanche extent was highly variable but not associated with snowpack anomalies. Most avalanche years coincided with years in which the mean January-February Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 3.4 indices were neutral. The findings suggest that changes in Pacific climate patterns that influence snowfall could also alter the frequency of natural snow avalanches and could thus change disturbance patterns in the montane forests of the canyon. ?? 2008 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗

USGS2004

Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ???70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Montana↗

USGS2004

A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D

We present a tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which demonstrates that strong, low-frequency (60-100 yr) variability in basin-wide (0-70??N) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been a consistent feature of North Atlantic climate for the past five centuries. Intervention analysis of reconstructed AMO indicates that 20th century modes were similar to those in the preceding ???350 yr, and wavelet spectra show robust multidecadal oscillations throughout the reconstruction. Though the exact relationships between low-frequency SST modes, higher frequency (???7-25 yr) atmospheric modes (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation), and terrestrial climates must still be resolved, our results confirm that the AMO should be considered in assessments of past and future Northern Hemisphere climates. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗