Geology topics

Frank E. Marshall

Publications and source records attributed to Frank E. Marshall.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2020

Estimating late 19th century hydrology in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: An integration of paleoecologic data and models

Determining hydrologic conditions prior to instrumental records is a challenge for restoration of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Paleoecologic data provide this information on past conditions and when these data are used to adjust hydrologic models, allow conditions to be hindcast that may not be directly estimated from the paleo-data alone. In this context, the paleo-data provide real-world estimates as input to the models. Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem requires this understanding of the hydrology of the natural system prior to significant alterations due to water management and land use. Large scale models such as the Natural Systems Model (NSM 4.6.2) have been used by the South Florida Water Management District and other agencies responsible for restoration to estimate past hydrologic conditions; however, these models typically portray a drier natural system for the beginning of the 20th century than what is indicated by paleoecologic analyses and historical data. The purpose of this study is to estimate pre-20th century water levels, hydroperiods and flow in the freshwater wetlands of the Everglades by using pollen assemblage data in three sediment cores to adjust the Natural Systems Model. This study is designed to further test estimates of flow through the Everglades derived from analysis of sediment cores collected in Florida Bay. The results demonstrate that the NSM 4.6.2 underestimates water levels and hydroperiods in the Everglades compared to the paleo-adjusted NSM 4.6.2 model outputs. Flow models that use the paleo-adjusted water levels as input indicate flow through Shark River Slough in the late 19th century was approximately two times flow between 1990 and 2000, and flow through Taylor Slough was approximately three times flow between 1990 and 2000. The flow estimates derived from this study agree with the estimates derived from earlier studies using estuarine cores. This integration of paleoecologic information and hydrologic models provides resource managers with the best available estimates of past conditions and allows them to set realistic targets for restoration of freshwater ecosystems.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Estimates of natural salinity and hydrology in a subtropical estuarine ecosystem: implications for Greater Everglades restoration

Disruption of the natural patterns of freshwater flow into estuarine ecosystems occurred in many locations around the world beginning in the twentieth century. To effectively restore these systems, establishing a pre-alteration perspective allows managers to develop science-based restoration targets for salinity and hydrology. This paper describes a process to develop targets based on natural hydrologic functions by coupling paleoecology and regression models using the subtropical Greater Everglades Ecosystem as an example. Paleoecological investigations characterize the circa 1900 CE (pre-alteration) salinity regime in Florida Bay based on molluscan remains in sediment cores. These paleosalinity estimates are converted into time series estimates of paleo-based salinity, stage, and flow using numeric and statistical models. Model outputs are weighted using the mean square error statistic and then combined. Results indicate that, in the absence of water management, salinity in Florida Bay would be about 3 to 9 salinity units lower than current conditions. To achieve this target, upstream freshwater levels must be about 0.25 m higher than indicated by recent observed data, with increased flow inputs to Florida Bay between 2.1 and 3.7 times existing flows. This flow deficit is comparable to the average volume of water currently being diverted from the Everglades ecosystem by water management. The products (paleo-based Florida Bay salinity and upstream hydrology) provide estimates of pre-alteration hydrology and salinity that represent target restoration conditions. This method can be applied to any estuarine ecosystem with available paleoecologic data and empirical and/or model-based hydrologic data.

Florida↗

USGS2008

A simulation of historic hydrology and salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling paleoecologic assemblage data with regression models

Restoration of Florida’s Everglades requires scientifically supportable hydrologic targets. This study establishes a restoration baseline by developing a method to simulate hydrologic and salinity conditions prior to anthropogenic changes. The method couples paleoecologic data on long-term historic ecosystem conditions with statistical models derived from observed meteorologic and hydrologic data that provide seasonal and annual variation. Results indicate that pre-drainage freshwater levels and hydroperiods in major sloughs of the Everglades were about 0.15 m higher and two to four times greater, respectively, on average compared to today’s values. Pre-drainage freshwater delivered to the wetlands and estuaries is estimated to be 2.5 to four times greater than the modern-day flow, and the largest deficit is during the dry season. In Florida Bay, salinity has increased between 5.3 and 20.1 with the largest differences in the areas near freshwater outflow points. These results suggest that additional freshwater flows to the Everglades are needed for restoration of the freshwater marshes of the Everglades and estuarine environment of Florida Bay, particularly near the end of the dry season.

Estuaries and Coasts↗