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F.T. Van Manen

Publications and source records attributed to F.T. Van Manen.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2011

Geographic profiling to assess the risk of rare plant poaching in natural areas

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2010

Identifying sites for elk restoration in Arkansas

We used spatial data to identify potential areas for elk ( Cervus elaphus ) restoration in Arkansas. To assess habitat, we used locations of 239 elk groups collected from helicopter surveys in the Buffalo National River area of northwestern Arkansas, USA, from 1992 to 2002. We calculated the Mahalanobis distance ( D 2 ) statistic based on the relationship between those elk-group locations and a suite of 9 landscape variables to evaluate winter habitat in Arkansas. We tested model performance in the Buffalo National River area by comparing the D 2 values of pixels representing areas with and without elk pellets along 19 fixed-width transects surveyed in March 2002. Pixels with elk scat had lower D 2 values than pixels in which we found no pellets (logistic regression: Wald &chi; 2 = 24.37, P < 0.001), indicating that habitat characteristics were similar to those selected by the aerially surveyed elk. Our D 2 model indicated that the best elk habitat primarily occurred in northern and western Arkansas and was associated with areas of high landscape heterogeneity, heavy forest cover, gently sloping ridge tops and valleys, low human population density, and low road densities. To assess the potential for elk&ndash;human conflicts in Arkansas, we used the analytical hierarchy process to rank the importance of 8 criteria based on expert opinion from biologists involved in elk management. The biologists ranked availability of forage on public lands as having the strongest influence on the potential for elk&ndash;human conflict (33%), followed by human population growth rate (22%) and the amount of private land in row crops (18%). We then applied those rankings in a weighted linear summation to map the relative potential for elk&ndash;human conflict. Finally, we used white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) densities to identify areas where success of elk restoration may be hampered due to meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis ) transmission. By combining results of the 3 spatial data layers (i.e., habitat model, elk&ndash;human conflict model, deer density), our model indicated that restoration sites located in west-central and north-central Arkansas were most favorable for reintroduction.

Arkansas↗
USGS2010

Challenges of DNA-based mark-recapture studies of American black bears

We explored whether genetic sampling would be feasible to provide a region-wide population estimate for American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) in the southern Appalachians, USA. Specifically, we determined whether adequate capture probabilities ( p >0.20) and population estimates with a low coefficient of variation (CV <20%) could be achieved given typical agency budget and personnel constraints. We extracted DNA from hair collected from baited barbed-wire enclosures sampled over a 10-week period on 2 study areas: a high-density black bear population in a portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park and a lower density population on National Forest lands in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. We identified individual bears by their unique genotypes obtained from 9 microsatellite loci. We sampled 129 and 60 different bears in the National Park and National Forest study areas, respectively, and applied closed mark&ndash;recapture models to estimate population abundance. Capture probabilities and precision of the population estimates were acceptable only for sampling scenarios for which we pooled weekly sampling periods. We detected capture heterogeneity biases, probably because of inadequate spatial coverage by the hair-trapping grid. The logistical challenges of establishing and checking a sufficiently high density of hair traps make DNA-based estimates of black bears impractical for the southern Appalachian region. Alternatives are to estimate population size for smaller areas, estimate population growth rates or survival using mark&ndash;recapture methods, or use independent marking and recapturing techniques to reduce capture heterogeneity.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee↗
USGS2009

A habitat assessment for Florida panther population expansion into central Florida

One of the goals of the Florida panther ( Puma concolor coryi ) recovery plan is to expand panther range north of the Caloosahatchee River in central Florida. Our objective was to evaluate the potential of that region to support panthers. We used a geographic information system and the Mahalanobis distance statistic to develop a habitat model based on landscape characteristics associated with panther home ranges. We used cross-validation and an independent telemetry data set to test the habitat model. We also conducted a least-cost path analysis to identify potential habitat linkages and to provide a relative measure of connectivity among habitat patches. Variables in our model were paved road density, major highways, human population density, percentage of the area permanently or semipermanently flooded, and percentage of the area in natural land cover. Our model clearly identified habitat typical of that found within panther home ranges based on model testing with recent telemetry data. We identified 4 potential translocation sites that may support a total of approximately 36 panthers. Although we identified potential habitat linkages, our least-cost path analyses highlighted the extreme isolation of panther habitat in portions of the study area. Human intervention will likely be required if the goal is to establish female panthers north of the Caloosahatchee in the near term.

Florida↗
USGS2006

A spatial modeling approach to identify potential butternut restoration sites in Mammoth Cave National Park

Incorporation of disease resistance is nearly complete for several important North American hardwood species threatened by exotic fungal diseases. The next important step toward species restoration would be to develop reliable tools to delineate ideal restoration sites on a landscape scale. We integrated spatial modeling and remote sensing techniques to delineate potential restoration sites for Butternut (Juglans cinerea L.) trees, a hardwood species being decimated by an exotic fungus, in Mammoth Cave National Park (MCNP), Kentucky. We first developed a multivariate habitat model to determine optimum Butternut habitats within MCNP. Habitat characteristics of 54 known Butternut locations were used in combination with eight topographic and land use data layers to calculate an index of habitat suitability based on Mahalanobis distance (D2). We used a bootstrapping technique to test the reliability of model predictions. Based on a threshold value for the D2 statistic, 75.9% of the Butternut locations were correctly classified, indicating that the habitat model performed well. Because Butternut seedlings require extensive amounts of sunlight to become established, we used canopy cover data to refine our delineation of favorable areas for Butternut restoration. Areas with the most favorable conditions to establish Butternut seedlings were limited to 291.6 ha. Our study provides a useful reference on the amount and location of favorable Butternut habitat in MCNP and can be used to identify priority areas for future Butternut restoration. Given the availability of relevant habitat layers and accurate location records, our approach can be applied to other tree species and areas. ?? 2006 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2005

Geostatistical analysis of allele presence patterns among American black bears in eastern North Carolina

Highways are one of the leading causes of wildlife habitat fragmentation and may particularly affect wide-ranging species, such as American black bears (Ursus americanus). We initiated a research project in 2000 to determine potential effects of a 4-lane highway on black bear ecology in Washington County, North Carolina. The research design included a treatment area (highway construction) and a control area and a pre- and post-construction phase. We used data from the pre-construction phase to determine whether we could detect scale dependency or directionality among allele occurrence patterns using geostatistics. Detection of such patterns could provide a powerful tool to measure the effects of landscape fragmentation on gene flow. We sampled DNA from roots of black bear hair at 70 hair-sampling sites on each study area for 7 weeks during fall of 2000. We used microsatellite analysis based on 10 loci to determine unique multi-locus genotypes. We examined all alleles sampled at ???25 sites on each study area and mapped their presence or absence at each hair-sample site. We calculated semivariograms, which measure the strength of statistical correlation as a function of distance, and adjusted them for anisotropy to determine the maximum direction of spatial continuity. We then calculated the mean direction of spatial continuity for all examined alleles. The mean direction of allele frequency variation was 118.3?? (SE = 8.5) on the treatment area and 172.3?? (SE = 6.0) on the control area. Rayleigh's tests showed that these directions differed from random distributions (P = 0.028 and P < 0.001, respectively), indicating consistent directional patterns for the alleles we examined in each area. Despite the small spatial scale of our study (approximately 11,000 ha for each study area), we observed distinct and consistent patterns of allele occurrence, suggesting different directions of gene flow between the study areas. These directions seemed to coincide with the primary orientation of the best habitat areas. Furthermore, the patterns we observed suggest directions of potential source populations beyond the 2 study areas. Indeed, nearby areas classified as core black bear habitat exist in the directions indicated by our analysis. Geostatistical analysis of allele occurrence patterns may provide a useful technique to identify potential barriers to gene flow among bear populations.

Ursus↗