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Evelyn A. Roeloffs

Publications and source records attributed to Evelyn A. Roeloffs.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories. The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders. Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters. Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations. Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data. Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood. A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts: Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan. Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations. Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability. Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and analysis systems. Collaborate on research, development, and operation of affordable, high-precision seafloor geodetic methods that improve earthquake forecasting and event response. Advance computational techniques and instrumentation to enable use of strategies like repeat-pass imagery and low-cost geodetic sensors for earthquake response, monitoring, and research. Engage stakeholders and collaborate with partner institutions to foster operational and research objectives and to safeguard the continued health of geodetic infrastructure upon which we mutually depend. Maintaining a vibrant internal research program provides the foundation by which the EHP can remain an effective and trusted source for earthquake science. Exploiting abundant new data sources, evaluating and assimilating the latest science, and pursuing novel avenues of investigation are means to fulfilling the EHP’s core responsibilities and realizing the important scientific advances envisioned by its scientists. Central to the success of such a research program is engaging personnel with a breadth of competencies and a willingness and ability to adapt these to the program’s evolving priorities, enabling current staff to expand their skills and responsibilities, and planning holistically to meet shared workforce needs. In parallel, collaboration with external partners to support scientific investigations that complement ongoing internal research enables the EHP to strengthen earthquake information products by incorporating alternative perspectives and approaches and to study topics and geographic regions that cannot be adequately covered internally. With commensurate support from technical staff who possess diverse skills, including engineering, information technology, and proficiency in quantitative analysis combined with basic geophysical knowledge, the EHP can achieve the geodetic outcomes identified in this document.

Open-File Report

Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public. Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners. The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs: High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure; Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain); New tools to assess the potential for cascading hazards, such as landslides, tsunamis, coastal changes, and flooding caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions; Geospatial models of permanent, widespread land- and sea-level changes that may occur in the immediate aftermath of great ( M ≥8.0) subduction zone earthquakes; Strong partnerships between scientists and public safety providers for effective decision making during periods of elevated hazard and risk; Accurate forecasts of far-reaching hazards (for example, ash clouds, tsunamis) to avert catastrophes and unnecessary disruptions in air and sea transportation; Aftershock forecasts to guide decisions about when and where to re-enter, repair, or rebuild buildings and infrastructure, for all types of subduction zone earthquakes.

Circular

Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a &ldquo;prediction&rdquo; refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a &ldquo;forecast&rdquo; describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be &ldquo;operational earthquake forecasting.&rdquo; The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as &ldquo;forewarnings,&rdquo; but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered &ldquo;direct&rdquo; and &ldquo;indirect&rdquo; forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, &ldquo;models&rdquo; refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.

Cascadia region

Widespread groundwater-level offsets caused by the M w 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of 23 August 2011

Groundwater levels were offset in bedrock observation wells, measured by the U.S. Geological Survey or others, as far as 553 km from the M w 5.8 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake on 23 August 2011. Water levels dropped as much as 0.47 m in 34 wells and rose as much as 0.15 m in 12 others. In some wells, which are as much as 213 m deep, the water levels recovered from these deviations in hours to days, but in others the water-level offset may have persisted. The groundwater-level offsets occurred in locations where the earthquake was at least weakly felt, and the maximum water-level excursion increased with felt intensity, independent of epicentral distance. Coseismic static strain from the earthquake was too small and localized to have contributed significantly to the groundwater-level offsets. The relation with intensity is consistent with ground motion from seismic waves leading to the water-level offsets. Examination of the hydrographs indicates that short-period ground motion most likely affected the permeability of the bedrock aquifers monitored by the wells.

GSA Special Papers

Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (<10%) for effective normal stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

British Columbia, Washington

Working with strainmeter data

The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO), the geodetic component of the U.S. National Science Foundation–funded Earthscope program, includes 75 borehole and 6 laser strainmeters ( http://pbo.unavco.org ). The strainmeters are installed at several locations: on the Cascadia forearc in Washington state and on Vancouver Island, Canada; in arrays of two to nine instruments along the North American–Pacific plate boundary in California; at Mount St. Helens; and in Yellowstone National Park. For deformation signals seconds to weeks in duration, strainmeters have a resolution and a signal-to-noise ratio superior to those of seismometers and GPS. However, this high sensitivity can introduce nontectonic signals into strain data, presenting data interpretation challenges, especially for borehole strainmeters.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Borehole observations of continuous strain and fluid pressure: Chapter 9

Strain is expansion, contraction, or distortion of the volcanic edifice and surrounding crust. As a result of magma movement, volcanoes may undergo enormous strain prior to and during eruption. Global Positioning System (GPS) observations can in principle be used to determine strain by taking the difference between two nearby observations and dividing by the distance between them. Two GPS stations 1 km apart, each providing displacement information accurate to the nearest millimeter, could detect strain as small as 2 mm km -1 , or 2 &times; 10 -6 . It is possible, however, to measure strains at least three orders of magnitude smaller using borehole strainmeters. In fact, it is even possible to measure strains as small as 10 -8 using observations of groundwater levels in boreholes.

Book chapter

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

California

Preliminary report on the 22 December 2003, M 6.5 San Simeon, California earthquake

The M w 6.5 San Simeon earthquake struck the central California coast on 22 December 2003 at 19:15:56 UTC (11:15:56 am local time.) The epicenter was located 11 km northeast of the town of San Simeon, and 39 km west-northwest of Paso Robles ( Figure 1 ), as reported by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN, the California region of the Advanced National Seismic System [ANSS]). The mainshock nucleated at 35.702°N, 121.108°W and a depth of 7.1 km, and the rupture propagated unilaterally to the southeast. The strong directivity of the rupture resulted in a concentration of damage and aftershock activity to the southeast of the hypocenter. The worst earthquake damage occurred in Paso Robles, where two people died in the collapse of an unreinforced masonry building. The accurate and rapid earthquake information provided in near real-time by CISN/ANSS to the Governor's Office of Emergency Services made it possible to focus emergency response in the source area, although the earthquake was felt from San Francisco to Los Angeles. The San Simeon earthquake occurred on a reverse fault striking northwest and most likely dipping to the northeast. Although motion along the Pacific-North America plate boundary in California is dominantly strike-slip, there is a small compressional component through central California. Repeated thrust earthquakes such as the San Simeon event accommodate this compression and build the Coast Ranges. Other recent thrust earthquakes in central California include the 1983 Coalinga (M 6.4) and the 1985 Kettleman Hills (M 6.0) earthquakes. Prior earthquakes in the vicinity of the San Simeon event include a M 5-6 earthquake in 1853, a M 5.7 earthquake in 1906, and the M L 6.2 Bryson earthquake of 1952 ( Figure 1 ) ( McLaren and Savage, 2001 .) The San Simeon earthquake occurred on a previously unknown blind thrust fault. No surface rupture associated with the earthquake has been identified. A number of roads, including State Highway 46, buckled due to the earthquake, but this deformation appears mainly to be failure of road fill due to ground shaking and not the result of tectonic surface rupture. Extrapolation of the fault plane to the surface would roughly align with the surface trace of the Oceanic Fault, but this is thought to be a vertical strike-slip fault. Two models for the kinematics of the region have previously been proposed. The first is a fault-propagation fold model developed by Namson and Davis ( 1990 ) for the Santa Lucia mountains ∼30 km to the southeast of the San Simeon sequence. The mainshock geometry is similar to, although more steeply dipping than, the main blind thrust of this model, implying that this model may be applicable to the San Simeon region as well. The second is the model of McLaren and Savage ( 2001 ), in which the region is dominated by strike-slip faulting with shortening on high-angle reverse faults. This model also may be applicable, although the dip of the San Simeon mainshock is shallower than predicted. The San Simeon earthquake was followed by a vigorous aftershock sequence, with 165 events above M 3 reported by CISN within the first week of the mainshock. Although the event triggered many aftershocks, it did not significantly impact the seismicity rates of other nearby faults such as the San Andreas Fault and the San Simeon-Hosgri fault zone. The only triggered seismicity seems to be a few small events within the mainshock coda at the Geysers geothermal area, north of San Francisco. The San Simeon earthquake did, however, trigger shallow creep on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield and hydrologic changes in hot springs in Paso Robles.

California

Water-level changes induced by local and distant earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

Distant as well as local earthquakes have induced groundwater-level changes persisting for days to weeks at Long Valley caldera, California. Four wells open to formations as deep as 300 m have responded to 16 earthquakes, and responses to two earthquakes in the 3-km-deep Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) show that these changes are not limited to weathered or unconsolidated near-surface rocks. All five wells exhibit water-level variations in response to earth tides, indicating they can be used as low-resolution strainmeters. Earthquakes induce gradual water-level changes that increase in amplitude for as long as 30 days, then return more slowly to pre-earthquake levels. The gradual water-level changes are always drops at wells LKT, LVEW, and CH-10B, and always rises at well CW-3. At a dilatometer just outside the caldera, earthquake-induced strain responses consist of either a step followed by a contractional strain-rate increase, or a transient contractional signal that reaches a maximum in about seven days and then returns toward the pre-earthquake value. The sizes of the gradual water-level changes generally increase with earthquake magnitude and decrease with hypocentral distance. Local earthquakes in Long Valley produce coseismic water-level steps; otherwise the responses to local earthquakes and distant earthquakes are indistinguishable. In particular, water-level and strain changes in Long Valley following the 1992 M7.3 Landers earthquake, 450 km distant, closely resemble those initiated by a M4.9 local earthquake on November 22, 1997, during a seismic swarm with features indicative of fluid involvement. At the LKT well, many of the response time histories are identical for 20 days after each earthquake, and can be matched by a theoretical solution giving the pore pressure as a function of time due to diffusion of a nearby, instantaneous, pressure drop. Such pressure drops could be produced by accelerated inflation of the resurgent dome by amounts too small to be detected by the two-color electronic distance-measuring network. Opening-mode displacement in the south moat, inferred to have followed a M4.9 earthquake on November 22, 1997, could also create extensional strain on the dome and lead to water-level changes similar to those following dome inflation. Contractional strain that could account for earthquake-induced water-level rises at the CW-3 well is inconsistent with geodetic observations. We instead attribute these water-level rises to diffusion of elevated fluid pressure localized in the south moat thermal aquifer. For hydraulic diffusivities appropriate to the upper few hundred meters at Long Valley, an influx of material at temperatures of 300°C can thermally generate pressure of 6 m of water or more, an order of magnitude larger than needed to account for the CW-3 water-level rises. If magma or hot aqueous fluid rises to within 1 km of the surface in the eastern part of the south moat, then hydraulic diffusivities are high enough to allow fluid pressure to propagate to CW-3 on the time scale observed. The data indicate that seismic waves from large distant earthquakes can stimulate upward movement of fluid in the hydrothermal system at Long Valley.

California

Water-level changes in response to the 20 December 1994 earthquake near Parkfield, California

We analyze co-seismic changes of water level in nine wells near Parkfield, California, produced by an M D 4.7 earthquake on 20 December 1994 in order to test the hypothesis that co-seismic water-level changes are proportional to co-seismic volumetric strain. For each well, a quantitative relationship between water level and volumetric strain can be inferred from water-level fluctuations due to earth tides and barometric pressure. The observed co-seismic water-level changes, which ranged from −16 to +34 cm, can therefore be compared with volumetric strain recorded by borehole strainmeters or calculated using a dislocation model of the earthquake. We were able to find a dislocation model of the earthquake rupture that predicts volumetric expansion at five of the six wells where water level fell co-seismically, as well as volumetric contraction at one of the two sites where water level rose. Strain predicted by the dislocation model is in good quantitative agreement with the strain inferred from water-level changes observed at four of the well sites, as well as strain recorded by three borehole strainmeters. Water-level changes at two more well sites correspond to strain somewhat greater than predicted by the model but agree in sign with model-calculated strains. At three of the well sites, however, water-level changes took place that cannot be explained as responses to co-seismic volumetric strain for any plausible dislocation model of the earthquake rupture. At two of these sites, one in and one near the San Andreas fault, large water-level drops are probably influenced by co-seismic fault creep. The third site has a history of large water-level rises in response to earthquakes at distances up to several hundred kilometers. This data set shows that co-seismic water-level changes in many wells are proportional to volumetric strain but that other wells exist in which different mechanisms dominate co-seismic response.

California

An updated numerical simulation of the ground-water flow system for the Castle Lake debris dam, Mount St. Helens, Washington, and implications for dam stability against heave

A numerical simulation of the ground-water flow system in the Castle Lake debris dam, calibrated to data from the 1991 and 1992 water years, was used to estimate factors of safety against heave and internal erosion. The Castle Lake debris dam, 5 miles northwest of the summit of Mount St. Helens, impounds 19,000 acre-ft of water that could pose a flood hazard in the event of a lake breakout. A new topographic map of the Castle Lake area prior to the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was prepared and used to calculate the thickness of the debris avalanche deposits that compose the dam. Water levels in 22 piezometers and discharges from seeps on the dam face measured several times per year beginning in 1990 supplemented measurements in 11 piezometers and less frequent seep discharge measurements made since 1983. Observations in one group of piezometers reveal heads above the land surface and head gradients favoring upward flow that correspond to factors of safety only slightly greater than 2. The steady-state ground-water flow system in the debris dam was simulated using a threedimensional finite difference computer program. A uniform, isotropic model having the same shape as the dam and a hydraulic conductivity of 1.55 ft/day simulates the correct water level at half the observation points, but is in error by 10 ft or more at other points. Spatial variations of hydraulic conductivity were required to calibrate the model. The model analysis suggests that ground water flows in both directions between the debris dam and Castle Lake. Factors of safety against heave and internal erosion were calculated where the model simulated upward flow of ground water. A critical gradient analysis yields factors of safety as low as 2 near the piezometers where water level observations indicate low factors of safety. Low safety factors are also computed near Castle Creek where slumping was caused by a storm in January, 1990. If hydraulic property contrasts are present in areas of the debris dam unsampled by piezometers, then low safety factors may exist that are not evident in the numerical model analysis. Numerical model simulations showed that lowering Castle Lake by 40 feet increases many factors of safety by 0.1, but increases greater than 1 are limited to the area of 1990 slumping.

Washington

The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Preseismic observations

The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., Ms=7.1 earthquake provided the first opportunity in the history of fault monitoring in the United States to gather multidisciplinary preearthquake data in the near field of an M=7 earthquake. The data obtained include observations on seismicity, continuous strain, long-term ground displacement, magnetic field, and hydrology. The papers in this chapter describe these data, their implications for fault-failure mechanisms, the scale of prerupture nucleation, and earthquake prediction in general. Of the 10 papers presented here, about half identify preearthquake anomalies in the data, but some of these results are equivocal. Seismicity in the Loma Prieta region during the 20 years leading up to the earthquake was unremarkable. In retrospect, however, it is apparent that the principal southwest-dipping segment of the subsequent Loma Prieta rupture was virtually aseismic during this period. Two M=5 earthquakes did occur near Lake Elsman near the junction of the Sargent and San Andreas faults within 2.5 and 15 months of, and 10 km to the north of, the Loma Prieta epicenter. Although these earthquakes were not on the subsequent rupture plane of the Loma Prieta earthquake and other M=5 earthquakes occurred in the preceding 25 years, it is now generally accepted that these events were, in some way, foreshocks to the main event.

California

Plane-strain shear dislocations moving steadily in linear elastic diffusive solids

This paper derives the stress and pore pressure fields induced by a plane-strain shear (gliding edge) dislocation moving steadily at a constant speed V in a linear elastic, fluid-infiltrated (Biot) solid. Solutions are obtained for the limiting cases in which the plane containing the moving dislocation (y = 0) is permeable and impermeable to the diffusing species. Although the solutions for the permeable and impermeable planes are required to agree with each other and with the ordinary elastic solution in the limits of V = 0 (corresponding to drained response) and V = ∞ (corresponding to undrained response), the stress and pore pressure fields differ considerably for finite nonzero velocities. For the dislocation on the impermeable plane, the pore pressure is discontinuous on y = 0 and attains values which are equal in magnitude and opposite in sign as y = 0 is approached from above and below. The solution reveals the surprising result that the pore pressure on the impermeable plane is zero everywhere behind the moving dislocation (x < 0). For the dislocation on the permeable plane, the pore pressure is zero on y = 0 and attains its maximum at about (2c/V, 2c/V) where c is the diffusivity, and the origin of the coordinate system coincides with the dislocation. For the impermeable plane, the largest pore pressure change occurs at the origin.

Journal of Applied Mechanics