Geology topics

Evan H. Campbell Grant

Publications and source records attributed to Evan H. Campbell Grant.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2019

A three-pipe problem: Dealing with complexity to halt amphibian declines

Natural resource managers are increasingly faced with threats to managed ecosystems that are largely outside of their control. Examples include land development, climate change, invasive species, and emerging infectious diseases. All of these are characterized by large uncertainties in timing, magnitude, and effects on species. In many cases, the conservation of species will only be possible through concerted action on the limited elements of the system that managers can control. However, before an action is taken, a manager must decide how to act, which is, if done well, not easy. In addition to dealing with uncertainty, managers must balance multiple potentially competing objectives, often in cases when the management actions available to them are limited. Guidance in making these types of challenging decisions can be found in the practice known as decision analysis. We demonstrate how using a decision-analytic approach to frame decisions can help identify and address impediments to improved conservation decision making. We demonstrate the application of decision analysis to two high-elevation amphibian species. An inadequate focus on the decision-making process, and an assumption that scientific information is adequate to solve conservation problems, must be overcome to advance the conservation of amphibians and other highly threatened taxa.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2019

Overview of emerging amphibian pathogens and modeling advances for conservation-related decisions

One of the leading causes of global amphibian decline is emerging infectious disease. We summarize the disease ecology of four major emerging amphibian infectious agents: chytrids, ranaviruses, trematodes, and Perkinsea. We focus on recently developed quantitative advances that build on well-established ecological theories and aid in studying epizootic and enzootic disease dynamics. For example, we identify ecological and evolutionary selective forces that determine disease outcomes and transmission pathways by borrowing ideas from population and community ecology theory. We outline three topics of general interest in disease ecology: (i) the relationship between biodiversity and disease risk, (ii) individual, species, or environmental transmission heterogeneity, and (iii) pathogen coinfections. Finally, we identify specific knowledge gaps impeding the success of conservation-related decisions for disease mitigation and the future of amphibian conservation success.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2019

Proactive management of amphibians: Challenges and opportunities

Delaying species management reduces the chance of successful recovery, increases the risk of extinction, and can be expensive. Acting before major declines are realized affords access to a greater suite of cost-effective management actions to sustain populations, reducing the likelihood of declines warranting protected status. It is clear that reactive management approaches are not sufficient for amphibian conservation and a successful path forward will require novel proactive approaches and strong leadership. We describe how conservation timelines and structured decision making can help explicitly evaluate management options available to species given current, and often limited, knowledge about populations or distributions. We illustrate this framework using common and widespread amphibians, as many species are in decline, including those found in protected conservation areas. We promote the development of explicit management objectives, management triggers and advocate for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of actions before species declines are observed.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2019

Estimating occurrence, prevalence, and detection of amphibian pathogens: Insights from occupancy models

Understanding the distribution of pathogens across landscapes and their prevalence within host populations is a common aim of wildlife managers. Despite the need for unbiased estimates of pathogen occurrence and prevalence for planning effective management interventions, many researchers fail to account for imperfect pathogen detection. Instead raw data are often reported, which may lead to ineffective, or even detrimental, management actions. We illustrate the utility of occupancy models for generating unbiased estimates of disease parameters by 1) providing a written tutorial describing how to fit these models in Program PRESENCE and 2) presenting a case study with the pathogen ranavirus. We analyzed ranavirus detection data from a wildlife refuge (Maryland, US) using occupancy modeling, which yields unbiased estimates of pathogen occurrence and prevalence. We found ranavirus prevalence was underestimated by up to 30% if imperfect pathogen detection was ignored. The unbiased estimate of ranavirus prevalence in larval wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ; 0.73) populations was higher than in larval spotted salamander ( Ambystoma maculatum ; 0.56) populations. In addition, the odds of detecting ranavirus in tail samples were 6.7 times higher than detecting ranavirus in liver samples. Therefore, tail samples presented a nonlethal sampling method for ranavirus that may be able to detect early (nonsystemic) infections.

Maryland↗

USGS2018

Linking variability in climate to wetland habitat suitability: Is it possible to forecast regional responses from simple climate measures?

Temporary wetlands have value to both ecological and social systems. Interactions between local climate and the surrounding landscape result in patterns of hydrology that are unique to temporary wetlands. These seasonal and annual fluctuations in wetland inundation contribute to community composition and richness. Thus, predicting wetland community responses to environmental change is tied to the ability to predict wetland hydroregime. Detailed monitoring of wetland hydroregime is resource-intensive, limiting the scope and scale of forecasting. As an alternative, we determine which freely available measures of water availability best predict one component of wetland hydroregime, habitat suitability (i.e., the predictability of water in a wetland) within and among geographic regions. We used data from three North American regions to determine the climate index that best explained year-to-year variation in habitat suitability during a key phenological period—amphibian breeding. We demonstrate that simple, short-term climate indices based solely on precipitation data best predict habitat suitability in vernal pools in the northeast, montane wetlands in the west and coastal plain wetlands in the southeast. These relationships can help understand how changes in short-term precipitation patterns as a result of climate change may influence the overall hydroregime, and resulting biodiversity, of temporary wetlands across disparate biomes.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗

USGS2018

Eco‐evolutionary rescue promotes host–pathogen coexistence

Emerging infectious pathogens are responsible for some of the most severe host mass mortality events in wild populations. Yet, effective pathogen control strategies are notoriously difficult to identify, in part because quantifying and forecasting pathogen spread and disease dynamics is challenging. Following an outbreak, hosts must cope with the presence of the pathogen, leading to host–pathogen coexistence or extirpation. Despite decades of research, little is known about host–pathogen coexistence post‐outbreak when low host abundances and cryptic species make these interactions difficult to study. Using a novel disease‐structured N‐mixture model, we evaluate empirical support for three host–pathogen coexistence hypotheses (source–sink, eco‐evolutionary rescue, and spatial variation in pathogen transmission) in a Neotropical amphibian community decimated by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) in 2004. During 2010–2014, we surveyed amphibians in Parque Nacional G. D. Omar Torríjos Herrera, Coclé Province, El Copé, Panama. We found that the primary driver of host–pathogen coexistence was eco‐evolutionary rescue, as evidenced by similar amphibian survival and recruitment rates between infected and uninfected hosts. Average apparent monthly survival rates of uninfected and infected hosts were both close to 96%, and the expected number of uninfected and infected hosts recruited (via immigration/reproduction) was less than one host per disease state per 20‐m site. The secondary driver of host–pathogen coexistence was spatial variation in pathogen transmission as we found that transmission was highest in areas of low abundance but there was no support for the source–sink hypothesis. Our results indicate that changes in the host community (i.e., through genetic or species composition) can reduce the impacts of emerging infectious disease post‐outbreak. Our disease‐structured N‐mixture model represents a valuable advancement for conservation managers trying to understand underlying host–pathogen interactions and provides new opportunities to study disease dynamics in remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2018

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2018

Prepublication communication of research results

Publishing of scientific findings is central to the scientific process, and it is traditional to consider findings “provisional” until accepted by a peer-reviewed journal. Until publication, communication of provisional findings beyond participants in the study is typically limited. This practice helps assure scientific integrity. However, a dilemma arises when a provisional finding has urgent societal consequences that may be exacerbated by delay. This dilemma may be particularly pronounced when a discovery concerns wildlife health, which could have implications for conservation, public health (i.e., zoonoses), or domestic animal health (e.g., avian influenza). A scientist may see a need for prepublication communication but consider such communication to be problematic. We suggest that common concerns about directed prepublication communication are generally misplaced. Our perspective comes from natural resources science and management, but we suspect that this situation could arise in any branch of science and that discussing these issues will help scientists who may not routinely work with public officials navigate an unfamiliar situation.

EcoHealth↗

USGS2018

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the “warm edge” of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two‐species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species’ interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high‐elevation habitats will directly affect the species’ distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.

Virginia↗

USGS2018

Two-species occupancy modeling accounting for species misidentification and nondetection

In occupancy studies, species misidentification can lead to false‐positive detections, which can cause severe estimator biases. Currently, all models that account for false‐positive errors only consider omnibus sources of false detections and are limited to single‐species occupancy. However, false detections for a given species often occur because of the misidentification with another, closely related species. To exploit this explicit source of false‐positive detection error, we develop a two‐species occupancy model that accounts for misidentifications between two species of interest. As with other false‐positive models, identifiability is greatly improved by the availability of unambiguous detections at a subset of site x occasions. Here, we consider the case where some of the field observations can be confirmed using laboratory or other independent identification methods (“confirmatory data”). We performed three simulation studies to (1) assess the model's performance under various realistic scenarios, (2) investigate the influence of the proportion of confirmatory data on estimator accuracy and (3) compare the performance of this two‐species model with that of the single‐species false‐positive model. The model shows good performance under all scenarios, even when only small proportions of detections are confirmed (e.g. 5%). It also clearly outperforms the single‐species model. We illustrate application of this model using a 4‐year dataset on two sympatric species of lungless salamanders: the US federally endangered Shenandoah salamander Plethodon shenandoah , and its presumed competitor, the red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus . Occupancy of red‐backed salamanders appeared very stable across the 4 years of study, whereas the Shenandoah salamander displayed substantial turnover in occupancy of forest habitats among years. Given the extent of species misidentification issues in occupancy studies, this modelling approach should help improve the reliability of estimates of species distribution, which is the goal of many studies and monitoring programmes. Further developments, to account for different forms of state uncertainty, can be readily undertaken under our general approach.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Decision making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander ( Salamandra salamandra ) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. Synthesis and applications . Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori .

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2018

Identifying management-relevant research priorities for responding to disease-associated amphibian declines

A research priority can be defined as a knowledge gap that, if resolved, identifies the optimal course of conservation action. We (a group of geographically distributed and multidisciplinary research scientists) used tools from nominal group theory and decision analysis to collaboratively identify and prioritize information needs within the context of disease-associated amphibian decline , in order to develop a strategy that would support US management agency needs. We developed iterated influence diagrams to create and assess a unified research strategy. We illustrated a transparent process for identifying specific knowledge gaps in amphibian disease ecology relevant to environmental management, and then constructed a research plan to address these uncertainties. The resulting priorities include a need to: (1) understand the drivers of the community-disease relationship, (2) determine the mechanisms by which exposure to contaminants influence disease outcomes, (3) identify elements of terrestrial and aquatic habitats that stabilize host-pathogen dynamics, (4) discuss how metapopulations may be managed to reduce the speed and intensity of disease outbreaks, and (5) define the relationship between habitat management and the environmental and host microbiomes. Along with identifying research priorities for disease management, we present the details of the process used to develop a consensus plan for addressing disease-related declines in amphibians on federally managed lands of the United States.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2018

Characterizing local and range wide variation in demography and adaptive capacity of a forest indicator species

The red-backed salamander ( Plethodon cinereus ) is considered an indicator of forest health. The range of the species covers much of the eastern and central US, and is often locally abundant where it occurs, primarily in deciduous forest. While there are expectations that changes in climate will result in changes in forest ecosystems, the ability of a forest indicator such as the red-backed salamanderto adapt to those changes, has not been assessed. We found that the red-backed salamander may have little adaptive capacity, but that changes in climate conditions may be buffered by salamander behavior, including its typical response to retreat underground during times of high temperature or during short-term drought. Effective conservation measures will likely need to increase the range of within-population climate tolerance in order for populations to persist locally.

Final Report↗

USGS2017

Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning

The pervasive and unabated nature of global amphibian declines suggests common demographic responses to a given driver, and quantification of major drivers and responses could inform broad-scale conservation actions. We explored the influence of climate on demographic parameters (i.e., changes in the probabilities of survival and recruitment) using 31 datasets from temperate zone amphibian populations (North America and Europe) with more than a decade of observations each. There was evidence for an influence of climate on population demographic rates, but the direction and magnitude of responses to climate drivers was highly variable among taxa and among populations within taxa. These results reveal that climate drivers interact with variation in life-history traits and population-specific attributes resulting in a diversity of responses. This heterogeneity complicates the identification of conservation ‘rules of thumb’ for these taxa, and supports the notion of local focus as the most effective approach to overcome global-scale conservation challenges.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2017

Imperfect pathogen detection from non-invasive skin swabs biases disease inference

1. Conservation managers rely on accurate estimates of disease parameters, such as pathogen prevalence and infection intensity, to assess disease status of a host population. However, these disease metrics may be biased if low-level infection intensities are missed by sampling methods or laboratory diagnostic tests. These false negatives underestimate pathogen prevalence and overestimate mean infection intensity of infected individuals. 2. Our objectives were two-fold. First, we quantified false negative error rates of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis on non-invasive skin swabs collected from an amphibian community in El Copé, Panama. We swabbed amphibians twice in sequence, and we used a recently developed hierarchical Bayesian estimator to assess disease status of the population. Second, we developed a novel hierarchical Bayesian model to simultaneously account for imperfect pathogen detection from field sampling and laboratory diagnostic testing. We evaluated the performance of the model using simulations and varying sampling design to quantify the magnitude of bias in estimates of pathogen prevalence and infection intensity. 3. We show that Bd detection probability from skin swabs was related to host infection intensity, where Bd infections < 10 zoospores have < 95% probability of being detected. If imperfect Bd detection was not considered, then Bd prevalence was underestimated by as much as 16%. In the Bd-amphibian system, this indicates a need to correct for imperfect pathogen detection caused by skin swabs in persisting host communities with low-level infections. More generally, our results have implications for study designs in other disease systems, particularly those with similar objectives, biology, and sampling decisions. 4. Uncertainty in pathogen detection is an inherent property of most sampling protocols and diagnostic tests, where the magnitude of bias depends on the study system, type of infection, and false negative error rates. Given that it may be difficult to know this information in advance, we advocate that the most cautious approach is to assume all errors are possible and to accommodate them by adjusting sampling designs. The modeling framework presented here improves the accuracy in estimating pathogen prevalence and infection intensity.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2017

Effects of host species and environment on the skin microbiome of Plethodontid salamanders

The amphibian skin microbiome is recognized for its role in defence against pathogens, including the deadly fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Yet, we have little understanding of evolutionary and ecological processes that structure these communities, especially for salamanders and closely related species. We investigated patterns in the distribution of bacterial communities on Plethodon salamander skin across host species and environments. Quantifying salamander skin microbiome structure contributes to our understanding of how host-associated bacteria are distributed across the landscape, among host species, and their putative relationship with disease. We characterized skin microbiome structure (alpha-diversity, beta-diversity and bacterial operational taxonomic unit [OTU] abundances) using 16S rRNA gene sequencing for co-occurring Plethodon salamander species (35 Plethodon cinereus , 17 Plethodon glutinosus , 10 Plethodon cylindraceus ) at three localities to differentiate the effects of host species from environmental factors on the microbiome. We sampled the microbiome of P. cinereus along an elevational gradient ( n = 50, 700–1,000 m a.s.l.) at one locality to determine whether elevation predicts microbiome structure. Finally, we quantified prevalence and abundance of putatively anti-Bd bacteria to determine if Bd-inhibitory bacteria are dominant microbiome members. Co-occurring salamanders had similar microbiome structure, but among sites salamanders had dissimilar microbiome structure for beta-diversity and abundance of 28 bacterial OTUs. We found that alpha-diversity increased with elevation, beta-diversity and the abundance of 17 bacterial OTUs changed with elevation (16 OTUs decreasing, 1 OTU increasing). We detected 11 putatively anti-Bd bacterial OTUs that were present on 90% of salamanders and made up an average relative abundance of 83% ( SD ± 8.5) per salamander. All salamanders tested negative for Bd. We conclude that environment is more influential in shaping skin microbiome structure than host differences in these congeneric species, and suggest that environmental characteristics that covary with elevation influence microbiome structure. High prevalence and abundance of anti-Bd bacteria may contribute to low Bd levels in these populations of Plethodon salamanders.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2017

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2017

Design tradeoffs in long-term research for stream salamanders

Long-term research programs can benefit from early and periodic evaluation of their ability to meet stated objectives. In particular, consideration of the spatial allocation of effort is key. We sampled 4 species of stream salamanders intensively for 2 years (2010–2011) in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA to evaluate alternative distributions of sampling locations within stream networks, and then evaluated via simulation the ability of multiple survey designs to detect declines in occupancy and to estimate dynamic parameters (colonization, extinction) over 5 years for 2 species. We expected that fine-scale microhabitat variables (e.g., cobble, detritus) would be the strongest determinants of occupancy for each of the 4 species; however, we found greater support for all species for models including variables describing position within the stream network, stream size, or stream microhabitat. A monitoring design focused on headwater sections had greater power to detect changes in occupancy and the dynamic parameters in each of 3 scenarios for the dusky salamander ( Desmognathus fuscus ) and red salamander ( Pseudotriton ruber ). Results for transect length were more variable, but across all species and scenarios, 25-m transects are most suitable as a balance between maximizing detection probability and describing colonization and extinction. These results inform sampling design and provide a general framework for setting appropriate goals, effort, and duration in the initial planning stages of research programs on stream salamanders in the eastern United States.

Maryland↗