Trends and seasonal patterns of nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and loads in two Mississippi Alluvial Plain watersheds following nutrient reduction efforts during 2010–22
The Mississippi Alluvial Plain ecoregion in Mississippi was historically part of the largest continuous wetland in North America but was clearcut and converted to row crop agriculture beginning in the late 1800s. To reduce the effects of agriculture on surface waters in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, nutrient reduction best management practices have been implemented throughout the region, particularly in two small watersheds: Harris Bayou watershed (174.04 square kilometers) and Porter Bayou watershed (267.15 square kilometers). Since 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, has collected water-quality samples monthly and during high-flow runoff events, at three locations within each watershed to monitor and assess nutrient trends following best management practice implementation. Here, we have analyzed long-term and seasonal trends in discharge, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads using a combination of quantile-Kendall analysis, quantile regression, generalized additive models, and weighted regression on time, discharge, and season. In Harris Bayou watershed, discharge values at a ~0.4–0.5 daily nonexceedance probability increased by 15 percent per year at the uppermost monitoring site. Additionally, TN concentrations decreased throughout the watershed over time, particularly in the spring and winter months. Reductions in TP were less apparent and only observed at one sampling location in Harris Bayou watershed. Nutrient concentrations in Porter Bayou watershed remained consistent over time and increased at one sampling location. However, despite discrepancies in concentration trends, flow-normalized TN and TP loads consistently decreased over time in both watersheds. At the mouth of both watersheds, peak TN and TP loads decreased between 37.7 and 56.9 percent. Collectively, these results provide evidence that best management practices may help reduce the effect of agricultural practices in the region, particularly in Harris Bayou watershed. Additionally, management efforts resulted in greater reductions in TN concentrations than in TP concentrations.