Elyse J. Wulfkuhle | USGS Science

USGS2022

Assessing climate change impacts on Pacific salmon using bioenergetics and spatiotemporal explicit river temperature predictions under varying riparian conditions

Pacific salmon and trout populations are affected by timber harvest, the removal and alteration of riparian vegetation, and the resulting physical changes to water quality, temperature, and associated delivery of high-quality terrestrial prey. Juvenile salmon and trout growth, a key predictor of survival, is poorly understood in the context of current and future (climate-change mediated) conditions, with resource managers needing information on how land use will impact future river conditions for these commercially and culturally important species. We used the Heat Source water temperature modeling framework to develop a spatiotemporal model to assess how riparian canopy and vegetation preservation and addition could influence river temperatures under future climate predictions in a coastal river fed by a moraine-dammed lake: the Quinault River in Washington State. The model predicted higher water temperatures under future carbon emission projections, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with varying magnitude based on different riparian vegetation scenarios. We used the daily average temperature output from these scenarios to predict potential juvenile fish growth using the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. A combination of riparian vegetation removal and continued high carbon emissions resulted in a predicted seven-day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) increase of 1.7°C in the lower river by 2080; increases in riparian shading mitigate this 7DADM increase to only 0.9°C. Under the current thermal regime, bioenergetics modeling predicts juvenile fish lose weight in the lower river; this loss of potential growth worsens by an average of 20–83% in the lower river by 2080, increasing with the loss of riparian shading. This study assess the impact of riparian vegetation management on future thermal habitat for Pacific salmon and trout under warming climates and provide a useful spatially explicit modeling framework that managers can use to make decisions regarding riparian vegetation management and its mechanistic impact to water temperature and rearing juvenile fish.

Washington↗

USGS2018

Water temperature in the Lower Quinault River, Olympic Peninsula, Washington, June 2016 - August 2017

The availability of cold-water refugia during summertime river-water temperature maximums is important for cold-water fish species including Endangered Species Act listed salmonids since water temperature influences metabolism, growth, and phenology. The U.S. Geological Survey monitored water temperature at 10 sites approximately evenly-spaced along the lower Quinault River on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, from June 2016 to August 2017 to assess thermal conditions in the lower river. During this 15-month period, there was a near-continuous, 15-minute record at 7 of the sites; complications with thermistors at 3 of the 10 sites limited the temperature dataset to include only summer 2016. In addition, near-streambed and water-surface temperatures were measured along the lower river during a longitudinal survey from August 9 to 12, 2016, during summer baseflow conditions to potentially identify cold or cooler water regions. Measured August water temperatures were warmer than model-predicted August temperatures for the period, 1993–2011. Summertime (July–September) daily minimum temperatures exceeded established salmon habitat threshold temperatures of 16 °C (core summer season) and 17.5 °C (spawning, rearing, and migration periods) for 122 and 65 days, respectively, on average at all monitoring sites with a complete 15-month record that included two summer baseflow periods. Summertime water temperatures at those sites were generally cooler in the downstream direction along the lower Quinault River but became warmer in the downstream direction during the rest of the year, suggesting the river was influenced by diffuse discharge of groundwater with a relatively constant annual temperature. The August longitudinal temperature survey did not detect cold-water refugia (features more than 3 °C cooler than ambient stream water), although it did identify 11 cooler water features (CWF) approximately 100–800 m in length that were 0.1 °C cooler than adjacent upstream or downstream water. The CWFs appeared to correspond to local geomorphic conditions. In August 2017, 10 of the 11 CWFs were field surveyed, and 5 appeared to be influenced by shading from solar radiation by riparian vegetation or steep cliff banks. In addition, field observations suggest that finer scale (that is, less than 10 m) CWFs, specifically individual side pools associated with large, in-channel wood, increased in frequency in the downstream direction along the lower Quinault River. However, this study did not quantify the density or water temperatures associated with these fine-scale features that may serve as cool- or cold-water pockets or patches.

Washington↗