Geology topics

Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen

Publications and source records attributed to Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Microgravity as a tool for eruption forecasting

Detection of gravity change over time has been used to better understand magmatic activity at volcanoes for decades, but the technique is not commonly applied to forecasting eruptions. In contrast, other tools, notably seismic, deformation, and gas monitoring have made exceptional strides in the past several decades and form the foundation for eruption forecasting, especially during the final buildup to an eruption. Reasons for this gap include the high cost and fragile nature of gravity instruments, and the ambiguous nature of many results. But this is changing. Instrumentation is becoming more robust and accurate, expenses may soon diminish thanks to technological advances, and the record of success in tracking subsurface mass change (either from magma or hydrothermal fluids) in volcanic areas is growing. Here we review how gravity change can be applied to forecasting volcanic eruptions across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We argue that microgravity has untapped potential as a forecasting tool in three specific ways: constraining probabilistic assessments, detecting long-term mass change that may occur prior to the onset of vigorous seismicity and deformation, and identifying transient activity that indicates magma ascent or other changes that immediately precede new eruptions or changes in ongoing eruptions. As with any volcano-monitoring method, microgravity has strengths and weaknesses, but the varied forms of data collection—for instance, campaign versus continuous, and relative versus absolute—offer the potential to record a broad range of signals at volcanoes with a diversity of magmatic systems. The technique is currently underutilized; additional attention, investment, and application at more volcanoes could help to realize its promise.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2022

The centenary of IAVCEI 1919–2019 and beyond: The people, places, and things of volcano geodesy

Over the first century of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI), volcano geodesy grew from roots as an accidental and incidental system of measurements to an important method for monitoring volcanic activity and forecasting eruptions. The first practitioners in volcano geodesy were experts in other disciplines, and it was not until the latter half of the twentieth century that specialists in the field emerged—scientists who developed new methods, measured geodetic change at volcanoes, and quantitatively interpreted the results in terms of magmatic processes. Much of the early work in the field was restricted to a few volcanoes and involved techniques that had been adapted from other applications; relatively few methods were developed specifically for use on volcanoes. These volcanoes, however, provided the natural laboratories needed to advance the field. By the start of the twenty-first century, geodetic studies, especially using space-based techniques, contributed to the recognition of deformation and gravity change at hundreds of volcanoes on Earth. In coming years, IAVCEI researchers will focus on comprehensive exploitation of the growing volumes of geodetic data to better model, forecast, and track activity at volcanoes worldwide. Meanwhile, the field needs to become more diverse, better representing people who live in the shadows of volcanoes around the globe.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2022

Microgravity change during the 2008-2018 Kı̄lauea summit eruption: Nearly a decade of subsurface mass accumulation

Results from nine microgravity campaigns from Kı̄lauea, Hawaiʻi, spanning most of the volcano's 2008–2018 summit eruption, indicate persistent mass accumulation at shallow levels. A weighted least squares approach is used to recover microgravity results from a network of benchmarks around Kı̄lauea's summit, eliminate instrumental drift, and restore suspected data tares. A total mass of 1.9 × 10 11 kg was determined from these microgravity campaigns to have accumulated below Kı̄lauea Caldera during 2009–2015 at an estimated depth of 1.3 km below sea level. Only a fraction of this mass is reflected in surface deformation, and this is consistent with previously reported discrepancies between subsurface mass accumulation and observed surface deformation. The discrepancy, amongst other independent evidence from gas emissions, seismicity, and continuous gravimetry, indicate densification of magma in the reservoirs below the volcano summit. This densification may have been driven by degassing through the summit vent. It is hypothesized that during the final years of the summit eruption, magma densification resulted in a buildup of pressure in the reservoirs that may have contributed to the lower East Rift Zone outbreak of 2018. The observed mass accumulation beneath Kı̄lauea could not have been detected through other techniques and illustrates the importance of microgravity measurements in volcano monitoring.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2021

Volcano geodesy: A critical tool for assessing the state of volcanoes and their potential for hazardous eruptive activity

Since the beginning of the 20th century, volcano geodesy has evolved from time- and personnel-intensive methods for collecting discrete measurements to automated and/or remote tools that provide data with exceptional spatiotemporal resolution. By acknowledging and overcoming limitations related to data collection and interpretation, geodesy becomes a powerful tool for forecasting the onset and tracking the evolution of volcanic eruptions. In addition, geodetic data can be used for novel applications, such as mapping surface and topographic change due to the emplacement of volcanic deposits, detecting volcanic plumes, and constraining the properties of magmatic systems. These collective capabilities provide critical support for understanding magmatic processes at erupting volcanoes, while also offering important baseline data in advance of potential volcanic unrest. Future developments in volcano geodesy will involve not just new technology, but also advanced modeling and automated analysis methods that will provide a new understanding of the volcanic activity.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Insight into the May 2015 summit inflation event at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

We use ground and space geodetic data to study surface deformation at Kīlauea Volcano from January to September 2015. This period includes an episode of heightened activity in April and May 2015 that culminated in a magmatic intrusion beneath the volcano's summit. The data set consists of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), tilt, visual and seismic time series along with 25 descending and 15 ascending acquisitions of the Sentinel-1 satellite. We identify four different stages of surface deformation and volcanic activity, which we attribute to pressure changes and the movement of magma in response to an imbalance between magma supply and withdrawal in the shallow plumbing system, eventually leading to an intrusion beneath the summit area. In particular, we model the deformation as due to pressure changes in two subsurface magma bodies: the Halema‘uma‘u Reservoir (HMMR) and South Caldera Reservoir (SCR). The SCR was best described by an ellipsoidal source at 2.8 (2.65–3.07 at 95% confidence) km depth below the south caldera region. The HMMR was modeled as a point source located just east of Halema‘uma‘u crater at 1.5 (0.95–2.62) km depth. We suggest that a short-term increase in the magma supply rate to the volcano is a potential mechanisms for the intrusion, although other factors, like the filling of available void space or a reduced efficiency of magma transport through the volcano's East Rift Zone, may also play a role.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Post-collapse gravity increase at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi

We conducted gravity surveys of the summit area of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, in November 2018 and March 2019, with the goal of determining whether there was any mass change at depth following the volcano's May–August 2018 caldera collapse. Surface deformation between the two surveys was minimal, but we measured a gravity increase (maximum 44 μGal) centered on the caldera that can be modeled as mass accumulation in a region ~1 km beneath the surface. We interpret this mass increase to be mostly magma accumulation in void space that was created during the summit collapse. Caldera uplift was evident by April 2019, indicating that the magma volume had reached a point where pressurization could be sustained. Modeled gravity change suggests a maximum magma storage rate at Kīlauea's summit during November 2018 to March 2019 that is much less than the pre‐2018 magma supply rate to the volcano.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Assessing seasonal changes in microgravity at Yellowstone caldera

Microgravity time series at active volcanoes can provide an indication of mass change related to subsurface magmatic processes, but uncertainty is often introduced by hydrologic variations and other noise sources that cannot easily be isolated. We empirically assessed seasonality and noise by conducting four surveys over the course of May-October 2017 at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming. Yellowstone experiences frequent changes in the rates and styles of seismicity and surface deformation, but the mechanisms of these changes are poorly understood because the characteristics of the driving fluids are not clear. Past gravity data from the caldera have yielded ambiguous results, possibly due to hydrologic noise. Given the strong visually observable changes in surface water and snow conditions over the course of our surveys, we expected to see significant variations in gravity. The net change in gravity, however, was less than 20 µGal at most sites, and there was no strong correlation with river and lake levels or snow conditions. Seasonal changes in gravity are therefore small compared to those that would be expected from magmatic activity, although they may be on the same order as those associated with Yellowstone’s hydrothermal system. We did find that noise levels in gravity data were highly dependent on site characteristics, with bedrock sites away from trees yielding the lowest levels of noise, and thin concrete pads in forested areas the highest. These results can be used to plan future surveys at Yellowstone and to reinterpret past data, and they provide guidance in terms of best practices for repeat gravity work on volcanoes worldwide.

Wyoming↗