Elizabeth M. Gray | USGS Science

USGS2015

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS1998

Breeding synchrony and extrapair fertilizations in two populations of red-winged blackbirds

We tested the relationship between synchrony of breeding and the frequency of extrapair fertilizations (EPFs) in two populations of red-winged blackbirds known to differ in female extrapair behavior. We found no association between the number of simultaneously fertilizable females (temporal neighbors) and EPF rate in either population, although a significant difference between populations in the direction of this relationship (positive where females initiated extrapair copulations and negative where males initiated them) suggested a modest difference in the influence of synchrony. Males losing offspring to EPFs tended to have more fertilizable females at that time than the actual sires in some analyses but not in others. We also tested several assumptions underlying two competing hypotheses for the effects of synchrony. We found no evidence that females pursued extrapair copulations more often when other females were synchronous. Rather, females were more likely to gain EFFs with exirapatr males whose social mates were not yet building their nests. Synchrony also did not consistently affect male pursuit of exirapair copulations or achievement of EPFs. These results suggest that timing of breeding has some effects on extrapair activity, but that those effects are both relatively weak and influenced by other factors that vary between years or populations.

Behavioral Ecology↗