Geology topics

Edward H. Koerkle

Publications and source records attributed to Edward H. Koerkle.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

Occurrence and trends in the concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria and the relation to field water-quality parameters in the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers and selected tributaries, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, 2001–09

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Allegheny County Health Department and Allegheny County Sanitary Authority, collected surface-water samples from the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers and selected tributaries during the period 2001–09 to assess the occurrence and trends in the concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria during both wet- and dry-weather conditions. A total of 1,742 water samples were collected at 52 main-stem and tributary sites. Quantifiable concentrations of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) were reported in 1,667 samples, or 97.0 percent of 1,719 samples; concentrations in 853 samples (49.6 percent) exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recreational water-quality criterion of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters (col/100 mL). Quantifiable concentrations of fecal coliform (FC) bacteria were reported in 1,693 samples, or 98.8 percent of 1,713 samples; concentrations in 780 samples (45.5 percent) exceeded the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania water contact criterion of 400 col/100 mL. Quantifiable concentrations of enterococci bacteria were reported in 912 samples, or 87.5 percent of 1,042 samples; concentrations in 483 samples (46.4 percent) exceeded the EPA recreational water-quality criterion of 61 col/100 mL. The median percentage of samples in which bacteria concentrations exceeded recreational water-quality standards across all sites with five or more samples was 48 for E. coli , 43 for FC, and 75 for enterococci. E. coli , FC, and enterococci concentrations at main-stem sites had significant positive correlations with streamflow under all weather conditions, with rho values ranging from 0.203 to 0.598. Seasonal Kendall and logistic regression were evaluated to determine whether statistically significant trends were present during the period 2001–09. In general, Seasonal Kendall tests for trends in E. coli and FC bacteria were inconclusive. Results of logistic regression showed no significant trends in dry-weather exceedance of the standards; however, significant decreases in the likelihood that wet-weather E. coli and FC bacteria concentrations will exceed EPA recreational standards were found at the USGS streamgaging station Allegheny River at 9th Street Bridge. Nonparametric correlation analysis, including Spearman’s rho and the paired Prentice-Wilcoxon test, was used to screen for associations among fecal indicator bacteria concentrations and the field characteristics streamflow, water temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved-oxygen concentration, and turbidity.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2012

Estimation of baseline daily mean streamflows for ungaged locations on Pennsylvania streams, water years 1960-2008

Water-resource managers use daily mean streamflows to generate streamflow statistics and analyze streamflow conditions. An in-depth evaluation of flow regimes to promote instream ecological health often requires streamflow information obtainable only from a time series hydrograph. Historically, it has been difficult to estimate daily mean streamflow for an ungaged location. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Susquehanna River Basin Commission, and The Nature Conservancy, has developed the Ba seline S treamflow E stimator (BaSE) to estimate baseline streamflow at a daily time scale for ungaged streams in Pennsylvania using data collected during water years 1960–2008. Baseline streamflow is minimally altered by regulation, diversion, or mining, and other anthropogenic activities. Daily mean streamflow is estimated in BaSE using a methodology that equates streamflow as a percentile from a flow duration curve for a particular day at an ungaged location with streamflow as a percentile from the flow duration curve for the same day at a reference streamgage that is considered to be hydrologically similar to the ungaged location. An appropriate reference streamgage is selected using map correlation, in which variogram models are developed that correlate streamflow at one streamgage with streamflows at all other streamgages. The percentiles from a flow duration curve for the ungaged location are converted to streamflow through the use of regression equations. Regression equations used to predict 17 flow-duration exceedance probabilities were developed for Pennsylvania using geographic information system-derived basin characteristics. The standard error of prediction for the regression equations ranged from 11 percent to 92 percent with the mean of 31 percent. The map correlation method for estimating streamflow was tested at locations within two pilot basins, the Upper Delaware River Basin and the Lower Susquehanna River Basin, before being applied statewide. Reference streamgages within the pilot basins were used as ungaged locations for analyzing the map correlation method. Correlation using Spearman’s rho and centroid distance performed as well as, or better than, the method using the closest streamgage as a reference streamgage. Map correlation using the correlation metrics identified in the pilot basins was applied to 156 streamgages in and near Pennsylvania. BaSE uses the map correlation method and flow-duration exceedance probability regression equations to estimate baseline daily mean streamflow for an ungaged location. The output from BaSE is a Microsoft Excel® report file that summarizes the reference streamgage and ungaged location information, including basin characteristics, percent difference in basin characteristics between the two locations, any warning associated with the basin characteristics, mean and median streamflow for the ungaged location, and a daily hydrograph of streamflow for water years 1960–2008 for the ungaged location. The daily mean streamflow for the ungaged location can be exported as a text file to be used as input into other statistical software packages. BaSE estimates daily mean streamflow for baseline conditions only, and any alterations to streamflow from regulation, large water use, or substantial mining are not reflected in the estimated streamflow.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2010

Simulation of Runoff and Reservoir Inflow for Use in a Flood-Analysis Model for the Delaware River, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York, 2004-2006

A model was developed to simulate inflow to reservoirs and watershed runoff to streams during three high-flow events between September 2004 and June 2006 for the main-stem subbasin of the Delaware River draining to Trenton, N.J. The model software is a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The PRMS model simulates time periods associated with main-stem flooding that occurred in September 2004, April 2005, and June 2006 and uses both daily and hourly time steps. Output from the PRMS model was formatted for use as inflows to a separately documented reservoir and riverrouting model, the HEC-ResSim model, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center to evaluate flooding. The models were integrated through a graphical user interface. The study area is the 6,780 square-mile watershed of the Delaware River in the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York that drains to Trenton, N.J. A geospatial database was created for use with a geographic information system to assist model discretization, determine land-surface characterization, and estimate model parameters. The USGS National Elevation Dataset at 100-meter resolution, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), was used for model discretization into streams and hydrologic response units. In addition, geospatial processing was used to estimate initial model parameters from the DEM and other data layers, including land use. The model discretization represents the study area using 869 hydrologic response units and 452 stream segments. The model climate data for point stations were obtained from multiple sources. These sources included daily data for 22 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Climate Station network stations, hourly data for 15 stations from the National Climatic Data Center, hourly data for 1 station from the NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center records, and daily and hourly data for 7 stations operated by the New York City Department of Environmental Protection. The NWS Multisensor Precipitation Estimate data set for 2001-2007 was used for computing daily precipitation for the model and for computing hourly precipitation for storm simulation periods. Calibration of the PRMS model included regression and optimization algorithms, as well as manual adjustments of model parameters. The general goal of the calibration procedure was to minimize the difference between discharge measured at USGS streamgages and the corresponding discharge simulated by the model. Daily streamflow data from 35 USGS streamgages were used in model calibration. The streamflow data represent areas draining from 20.2 to 6,780 square miles. The PRMS model simulates reservoir inflow and watershed runoff for use as input into HECResSim for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the effects of different watershed conditions on main-stem flooding in the Delaware River watershed draining to Trenton, N.J. The PRMS model is useful as a planning tool to simulate the effects of land-use changes and different antecedent conditions on local runoff and reservoir inflow and, as input to the HEC-ResSim model, on flood flows in the main stem of the Delaware River.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Hydrogeologic setting and conceptual hydrologic model of the Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pennsylvania, June 2005

The Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pa., is experiencing some of the most rapid growth and development within the Commonwealth. This trend has resulted in land-use changes and increased water use, which will affect the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, surface water, ground water, and aquatic resources within the basin. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ClearWater Conservancy (CWC), Spring Creek Watershed Community (SCWC), and Spring Creek Watershed Commission (SCWCm), has developed a Watershed Plan (Plan) to assist decision makers in water-resources planning. One element of the Plan is to provide a summary of the basin characteristics and a conceptual model that incorporates the hydrogeologic characteristics of the basin. The report presents hydrogeologic data for the basin and presents a conceptual model that can be used as the basis for simulating surface-water and ground-water flow within the basin. Basin characteristics; sources of data referenced in this text; physical characteristics such as climate, physiography, topography, and land use; hydrogeologic characteristics; and water-quality characteristics are discussed. A conceptual model is a simplified description of the physical components and interaction of the surface- and ground-water systems. The purpose for constructing a conceptual model is to simplify the problem and to organize the available data so that the system can be analyzed accurately. Simplification is necessary, because a complete accounting of a system, such as Spring Creek, is not possible. The data and the conceptual model could be used in development of a fully coupled numerical model that dynamically links surface water, ground water, and land-use changes. The model could be used by decision makers to manage water resources within the basin and as a prototype that is transferable to other watersheds.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2003

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the White Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi 2 ) in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Water from the basin is used for recreation, drinking water supply, and to support aquatic life. The Christina River Basin includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, White Clay Creek, and Red Clay Creek. The White Clay Creek is the second largest of the subbasins and drains an area of 108 mi 2 . Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the streams. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in non point-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the three major subbasins and for the Christina River, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base- flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the White Clay Creek subbasin and at nine sites in the other subbasins. The HSPF model for the White Clay Creek Basin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into 17 reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.37 to 13 mi 2 . Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the White Clay Creek Basin are agricultural, forested, residential, and urban. The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and primarily calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Additional calibration was done using data from two other USGS streamflow-measurement stations with periods of record shorter than the calibration period. Daily precipitation data from two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gages and hourly precipitation and other meteorological data for one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between simulated and observed streamflow volume ranged from -0.9 to 1.8 percent for the 4-year period at the two calibration sites with 4-year records. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error. For example, at a site near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 89.1 mi 2 ), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -5.8 to 14.4 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -0.9 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the two calibration sites for total volume, low-flowrecession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the hourly rainfall data. The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using data collected by the USGS and state agencies at three USGS streamflow-measurement stations with variable water-quality monitoring periods ending October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended solids may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to ﬁve storms in 1998 at each of the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites in the White Clay Creek Basin indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual events. The accuracy of the water-quality calibration under stormﬂow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of water-quality data available for the White Clay Creek Basin. Users of the White Clay Creek HSPF model should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamﬂow and water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated, but the model performance is reasonable when evaluated over longer periods of time; the observed ﬂow-duration curve for the simulation period is similar to the long-term ﬂow-duration curve at White Clay Creek near Newark, Del., indicating that the calibration period is representative of all but highest 0.1 percent and lowest 0.1 percent of ﬂows at that site; relative errors in streamﬂow and water-quality simulations are greater for smaller drainage areas than for larger areas; and calibration for water-quality was based on sparse data.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Relations of biological indicators to nutrient data for lakes and streams in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, 1990-98

The Clean Water Action Plan of 1998 provides a blueprint for federal agencies to work with states, tribes, and other stakeholders to protect and restore the Nation's water resources. The plan includes an initiative that addresses the nutrient-enrichment problem of lakes and streams across the United States. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is working to set nutrient criteria by nationwide nutrient ecoregions that are an aggregation of the Omernik level III ecoregions. Because low levels of nutrients are necessary for healthy streams and elevated concentrations can cause algal blooms that deplete available oxygen and kill off aquatic organisms, criteria levels are to be set, in part, using the relation between chlorophyll a and concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus. Data from Pennsylvania and West Virginia, collected between 1990 and 1998, were analyzed for relations between chlorophyll a , nutrients, and other explanatory variables. Both phytoplankton and periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations from lakes and streams were analyzed separately within each of the USEPA nutrient ecoregions located within the boundaries of the two states. These four nutrient ecoregions are VII (Mostly Glaciated Dairy), VIII (Nutrient Poor, Largely Glaciated Upper Midwest and Northeast), IX (Southeastern Temperate Forested Plains and Hills), and XI (Central and Eastern Forested Uplands). Phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations in lakes were related to total nitrogen, total phosphorus, Secchi depth, concentration of dissolved oxygen, pH, water temperature, and specific conductivity. In nutrient ecoregion VII, nutrients were not significant predictors of chlorophyll a concentrations. Total nitrogen, Secchi depth, and pH were significantly related to phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations in nutrient ecoregion IX. Lake periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations from nutrient ecoregion XI were related to total phosphorus rather than total nitrogen, Secchi depth, and pH. In all cases, Secchi depth was inversely related to the chlorophyll a concentrations in a lake. Nutrient ecoregion VIII had too few samples for any type of analysis. Streams within the different nutrient ecoregions had many variables that were significantly related to periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations. These variables consisted of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, drainage area, percent forest cover, several macroinvertebrate indices, pH, basin slope, total residue, total suspended solids, and water temperature. Nutrients were not significantly related to periphyton chlorophyll a in streams within nutrient ecoregions VII or IX but were in nutrient ecoregion XI. Drainage area, percent forest cover, and several invertebrate indices were significant variables in nutrient ecoregion VII. Percent forest cover and several invertebrate indices had a negative relation with chlorophyll a concentrations in these streams. Percent forest cover and basin slope had a negative effect on periphyton in nutrient ecoregion IX streams. Light availability was more critical to periphyton growth in streams than nutrients. Ecoregion XI had enough samples to do seasonal analyses. Summer-season periphyton chlorophyll a concentrations in nutrient ecoregion XI streams were positively related to total phosphorus and drainage area but negatively related to percent forest cover. Summer-season phytoplankton in streams was related to different variables within the same nutrient ecoregion. Both total nitrogen and total phosphorus were positively related with chlorophyll a concentrations as well as basin slope, total residue, and total suspended solids but negatively related to pH. The winter stream phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations were related to water temperature only.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Red Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi 2 ) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, Brandywine Creek, and Christina River. The Red Clay Creek is the smallest of the subbasins and drains an area of 54 mi 2 . Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking-water supply, and to support aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency, waterquality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpointsource contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpointsource evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at 1 site in the Red Clay Creek subbasin and at 10 sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin. The HSPF model for the Red Clay Creek subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.7 to 10 mi 2 . One of the reaches contains a regulated reservoir. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Red Clay Creek subbasin are agricultural, forested, residential, and urban. The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data from three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data from one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gage and hourly data from one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated stream- flow volume ranged from -0.8 to 2.1 percent for the 4-year period at the three calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error for the 4-year period. For example, at a site near Stanton, Del., near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 50.2 mi 2 ), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -5.8 to 6.0 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -0.8 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the three calibration sites for total volume, low-flow-recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data. The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using nonpoint-source monitoring data collected in 1998 at one USGS streamflowmeasurement station and other water-quality monitoring data collected at three USGS streamflowmeasurement stations. The period of record for waterquality monitoring was variable at the stations, with an end date of October 1998 but the start date ranging from October 1994 to January 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspendedsediment concentrations, although suspended solids may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for ﬁve storms in 1998 at the one nonpoint-source monitoring site at Wooddale, Del., indicates that simulation error commonly is as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved utrients than particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual storm events. Assessment of the accuracy of the water-quality calibration under stormﬂow conditions is limited by the sparsity of available water-quality data in the basin. Users of the Red Clay Creek HSPF model should be aware of model limitations and consider the following when predictive scenarios are desired: streamﬂow-duration curves indicate the model simulates stream-ﬂow reasonably well when evaluated over a broad range of conditions and time, although streamﬂow and the corresponding water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated; streamﬂow-duration curves for the simulation period compare well with duration curves for the 57.5-year period ending in 2001 at Wooddale, Del., and include all but the extreme high-ﬂow and low-ﬂow events; calibration for water quality was based on sparse data, with the result of increasing uncertainty in the water-quality simulation.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Christina River subbasin and overview of simulations in other subbasins of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, 1994-98

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi 2 ) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, and Christina River. The Christina River subbasin (exclusive of the Brandywine, Red Clay, and White Clay Creek subbasins) drains an area of 76 mi 2 . Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking water supply, and support of aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point- and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpoint-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in small subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint- source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the Christina River subbasin and nine sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin. The HSPF model for the Christina River subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 3.8 to 21.9 mi 2 . Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Christina River subbasin are residential, urban, forested, agricultural, and open. The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data from one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologic station and hourly data from one NOAA meteorologic station were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated streamflow volume ranged from -2.3 to 5.3 percent for a 10-month portion of the calibration period at the two calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error for the 4-year period. For example, at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, near the bottom of the free-flowing part of the subbasin (drainage area of 21 mi 2 ), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -6.9 to 6.5 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -1.1 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the three calibration sites for total volume, low-flow recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data. The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using nonpoint-source monitoring data collected at two USGS streamflow-measurement stations and other water-quality monitoring data. The period of record for water-quality monitoring was variable at the stations, with a start date ranging from October 1994 to January 1998 and an end date of October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended-solids data may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulaion. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to six storms in 1998 at the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites (Little Mill Creek near Newport and Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del.) indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria; much larger errors are possible for individual events. Assessment of the water-quality calibration under stormﬂow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of available water-quality data in the subbasin. Users of the Christina River subbasin HSPF model and HSPF models for other subbasins in the Christina River Basin should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamﬂow-duration curves suggest the model simulates streamﬂow reasonably well when measured over a broad range of conditions and time although streamﬂow and the corresponding water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated; streamﬂow-duration curves for the simulation period compare well with duration curves for the 8-year period ending in 2001 at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del., and include all but the extreme high-ﬂow and low-ﬂow events; and calibration for water quality was based on limited data, with the result of increasing uncertainty in the water-quality simulation.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2000

Trends in surface-water quality during implementation of best-management practices in Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

Analyses of water samples collected over a 5-year period (1993-98) in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins during implementation of agricultural best-management practices (BMP’s) indicate statistically significant trends in the concentrations of several nutrient species and in nonfilterable residue (suspended solids). The strongest trends identified were those indicated by a more than 50- percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus and total residue in base flow in the two streams. Analyses of stormflow samples showed a 31-percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentration of total phosphorus in Mill Creek and a 54-percent decrease in total nonfilterable residue in Muddy Run. A 58-percent increase in the flow-adjusted concentration of total ammonia nitrogen in stormflow was found at Muddy Run. Although the effects of a specific BMP on the indicated trends is uncertain, results of statistical trend tests of the data suggest that stream fencing, possibly in concert with other practices, such as stream crossings for livestock, barnyard runoff control, manure-storage facilities, and rotational grazing, was effective in improving water quality during base flow and probably low to moderate stormflow conditions. Additional improvements in water quality in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins seems likely as the implementation of BMP’s is expected to continue. Thus, the full effect of BMP implementation in the two basins may not be observed for some time.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1997

Surface-water quality changes after 5 years of nutrient management in the Little Conestoga Creek headwaters, Pennsylvania, 1989-91

A 5.82-square-mile drainage basin in the headwaters of the Little Conestoga Creek in Lancaster County, Pa., was investigated from October 1989 through September 1991 as part of a longer-term effort to determine the effects of nutrient management on surface-water quality. A previous investigation found no statistical evidence that implementation of nutrient management from 1986 to 1989 affected water quality. Basin land use is 68 percent agriculture and includes all or part of 51 farms. Agricultural land under nutrient management ranged from 55 percent in 1989 to 80 percent in 1991. Nitrate nitrogen, the dominant nonpoint-source contaminant, averaged about 7.5 milligrams per liter in base flow. Implementation of nutrient management on 90 percent of applicable land in a 1.42-square-mile subbasin resulted in a 7 percent decrease in nitrogen applications from before nutrient management. Recognizing that some uncertainty exists in the nutrient-application data, the decrease consisted of a 44-percent decrease in commercial fertilizer nitrogen combined with a 3-percent increase in manure nitrogen applications. Manure accounted for 83 percent of the applied nitrogen. Amounts of nitrate nitrogen in the top 4 feet of soil ranged from 43 to 315 pounds per acre in the subbasin and were not substantially reduced from before nutrient management. Statistical analysis of nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations detected few significant step trends in water quality in a comparison with water quality before nutrient management. A decrease in base-flow concentrations of dissolved ammonium and suspended sediment was detected at a site draining a 1.43-square-mile subbasin with 40-percent implementation of nutrient-management plans. An increase in base-flow concentrations of suspended sediment was detected at a site draining the 1.42-square-mile subbasin with 90-percent implementation. A comparison of the dissolved nitrate plus nitrite in base-flow relations between paired subbasins detected no change from 1984-86 (before nutrient management) to 1989-91. Mean concentrations in stormflow were not reduced significantly from 1984-86 to 1989-91. Data collected during the entire 1986-91 nutrient-management period suggest a reduction in nitrogen input as large as the 30-percent reduction recorded from 1986-89 is needed to effect a 0.5-milligram-per-liter decrease in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS1997

Herbicide concentrations in and loads transported by the Conestoga River and Pequea Creek, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, 1992-95

Water samples were collected from four streams in Lancaster County from 1992 through 1995 and analyzed for selected herbicides. Samples were collected from the Little Conestoga Creek near Churchtown, Mill Creek (a tributary to the Conestoga River) at Elshelman Mill Road near Lyndon, the Conestoga River at Conestoga, and Pequea Creek at Martic Forge. Most samples were collected from stormflow that occurred during the growing season. Samples were analyzed for alachlor, aldrin, atrazine, chlordane, cyanazine, dieldrin, malathion, metolachlor, propazine, simazine, and toxaphene. Most samples had detectable concentrations of alachlor, atrazine, metolachlor, and simazine, and the loads of these constituents that were transported during each of the 4 years were computed. Of the samples collected from each of the streams—Little Conestoga Creek, Mill Creek, Conestoga River, and Pequea Creek—10, 12, 15, and 18 percent, respectively, had atrazine concentrations greater than 3.0 micrograms per liter, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level. Loads of atrazine, metolochlor, and simazine were greater than loads of any other herbicides. The largest loads were transported during 1994. Loads of atrazine transported by the four streams during periods of storm- flow from May to September 1994 totaled 3.46, 28.3, 263, and 46.8 pounds, respectively. The total loads of atrazine transported by the four streams?Little Conestoga Creek, Mill Creek, Conestoga River, and Pequea Creek—during calendar year 1994 were 6.48, 54.1, 498, and 102 pounds, respectively. A little less than half the atrazine load transported by each stream—45, 39, 42, and 42 percent, respectively—was transported during storms that occurred from May through September. Average annual yields of atrazine for the period 1992-95 were 0.59, 0.64, 0.68, and 0.51 pounds per square mile from the Little Conestoga Creek, Mill Creek, Conestoga River, and Pequea Creek, respectively. Average annual yields of simazine were 0.36, 1.2, 0.54, and 0.48 pounds per square mile, respectively, and average annual yields of metolachlor were 0.46, 0.49, 0.54, and 0.31 pounds per square mile, respectively. Less than 1 percent of both the atrazine and metolachlor that was applied to all basins was transported by streamflow.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗