Geology topics
E. Lee Bray
Publications and source records attributed to E. Lee Bray.
Estimates of immediate effects on world markets of a hypothetical disruption to Russia’s supply of six mineral commodities
The potential immediate effects of a hypothetical shock to Russia’s supply of selected mineral commodities on the world market and on individual countries were determined and monetized (in 2014 U.S. dollars). The mineral commodities considered were aluminum (refined primary), nickel (refined primary), palladium (refined) and platinum (refined), potash, and titanium (mill products), and the regions and countries of primary interest were the United States, the European Union (EU–28), and China. The shock is assumed to have infinite duration, but only the immediate effects, those limited by a 1-year period, are considered. A methodology for computing and monetizing the potential impacts was developed. Then the data pertaining to all six mineral commodities were collected and the most likely effects were computed. Because of the uncertainties associated with some of the data, sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the validity of the results. Results indicate that the impact on the United States arising from a shock to Russia’s supply, in terms of the value of net exports, would range from a gain of \$336 million for titanium mill products to a loss of \$237 million for potash; thus, the overall effect of a supply shock is likely to be quite modest. The study also demonstrates that, taken alone, Russia’s share in the world production of a particular commodity is not necessarily indicative of the size of potential impacts resulting from a supply shock; other factors, such as prices, domestic production, and the structure of international commodity flows were found to be important as well.
Bauxite and alumina
The United States is reliant upon imports for nearly all of the bauxite that it consumes. Small amounts of bauxite and bauxitic clays are produced in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia for nonmetallurgical uses. Metallurgical-grade bauxite (crude dry) imports in 2012 totaled 10.3 Mt (11.3 million st), 8 percent more than the quantity imported in 2011. Jamaica (46 percent), Guinea (27 percent) and Brazil (25 percent) were the leading suppliers to the United States in 2012. In 2012, 84 kt (92,600 st) of refractory-grade calcined bauxite was imported, an 8-percent decrease compared with imports in 2011. Although domestic steel production increased by about 3 percent in 2012, compared with production in 2011, increased use of magnesia for refractory products may account for the decrease in refractory-grade calcined bauxite imports. Guyana (55 percent) and China (45 percent) were the sources of U.S. refractory-grade calcined bauxite imports. Imports of nonrefractory-grade calcined bauxite in 2012 totaled 323 kt (356,000 st), 24 percent more than the quantity imported in 2011. This increase was attributed to increased use of bauxite in cement, as proppants for hydraulic fracturing by the petroleum industry and by steel makers. Guyana (32 percent), Australia (29 percent) and Greece (25 percent) were the leading sources.
Mineral resource of the month: aluminum
The article offers information on aluminum, a mineral resource which is described as the third-most abundant element in Earth's crust. According to the article, aluminum is the second-most used metal. Hans Christian Oersted, a Danish chemist, was the first to isolate aluminum in the laboratory. Aluminum is described as lightweight, corrosion-resistant and an excellent conductor of electricity and heat.
Factors that Influence the Price of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Rare Earth Elements, and Zn
This report is based on a presentation delivered at The 12th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar, March 17-20, 2008, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., about the factors that influence prices for aluminum, cadmium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, nickel, rare earth elements, and zinc. These are a diverse group of metals that are of interest to the battery recycling industry. Because the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) closely monitors, yet neither buys nor sells, metal commodities, it is an unbiased source of metal price information and analysis. The authors used information about these and other metals collected and published by the USGS (U.S. production, trade, stocks, and prices and world production) and internationally (consumption and stocks by country) from industry organizations, because metal markets are influenced by activities and events over the entire globe. Long-term prices in this report, represented by unit values, were adjusted to 1998 constant dollars to remove the effects of inflation. A previous USGS study in this subject area was 'Economic Drivers of Mineral Supply' by Lorie A. Wagner, Daniel E. Sullivan, and John L. Sznopek (USGS Open File Report 02-335). By seeking a common cause for common behavior of prices among the various metal commodities, the authors found that major factors that influence prices of metal commodities were international events such as wars and recessions, and national events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and economic growth in China, which started its open door policy in the 1970s but did not have significant market impact until the 1990s. Metal commodity prices also responded to commodity-specific events such as tariff or usage changes or mine strikes. It is shown that the prices of aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc are at historic highs, that world stocks are at (or near) historic lows, and that China's consumption of these metals had increased substantially, making it the world's leading consumer of these metals.