Geology topics

Dustin William Kincaid

Publications and source records attributed to Dustin William Kincaid.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Reservoir releases and land cover interact to drive event-scale nitrate export in a large agricultural basin

Understanding the drivers of nitrate export in rivers is critical for developing effective nutrient management strategies. However, few studies have explored event-scale drivers of export in large river basins with human modifications like reservoirs. Here, we analyzed nitrate concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships from 215 events at the outlet of the Kansas River Basin, USA (155,690 km 2 ) from 2014 to 2022 to (1) characterize event-scale nitrate export behaviors in a large agricultural basin, and (2) determine how different event characteristics are linked to these behaviors. We found that C-Q behaviors varied greatly, with 60% of events producing nitrate enrichment (n = 130) and 40% of events producing nitrate dilution (n = 85). These behaviors were correlated with complex spatial interlinkages between climate and land cover: across most of the basin, nitrate enrichment was correlated with drier antecedent conditions, but in wetter areas with higher proportions of urban and forested land cover, enrichment was more strongly correlated with precipitation magnitude/intensity. This difference in hydroclimatic controls on nitrate export might be related to differential distributions of nitrate sources within these land covers. Upstream of major reservoirs, however, neither variable was strongly correlated with C-Q behavior, suggesting that nitrate attenuation within reservoirs decouples event-scale concentration signals in upstream waters from those downstream. Reservoir outflows had variable impacts on C-Q behavior, reflecting reservoir-specific variations in nitrate attenuation efficiency. Together, these results identify specific complex interactions between hydroclimate, land cover, reservoir positioning, and individual reservoir properties that control event-scale nitrate export from large basins.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska↗

USGS2025

Changes in phosphorus concentration and flux from 2011 to 2023 in major U.S. tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes

Reducing phosphorus (P) flux to the Great Lakes is critical for improving water quality and controlling eutrophication. We used 13 water years (2011–2023) of U.S. Geological Survey data from 24 major U.S. tributaries (representing 47% of the U.S. Great Lakes watershed area) to evaluate temporal changes in orthophosphate (PO 4 -P) and total P (TP) using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season. We assessed actual and flow-normalized P concentrations and fluxes. Between 2011 and 2023, P concentrations and fluxes declined in many tributaries, although the extent and significance of these declines varied. Decreases were more common and statistically likely for TP than PO 4 -P, and several high-loading watersheds had modest or non-significant changes. Flow-normalized PO 4 -P:TP flux ratios increased in over half the tributaries, suggesting that even where P reductions occurred, reductions in the more bioavailable P fraction were proportionally smaller. Actual P fluxes were strongly correlated with streamflow, and year-to-year variability in actual fluxes was, on average, three times greater than variability related to trends in flow-normalized fluxes. This underscores the role of hydrology in modulating P export and highlights how changing precipitation and runoff patterns can obscure or counteract management progress. Spring accounted for the largest share of annual P flux in most tributaries, though many showed declining spring contributions. Our basin-wide analysis reveals that while management efforts may have yielded progress in reducing TP in many watersheds, additional strategies would be needed to address PO 4 -P reductions and account for changing hydrology, especially in high-contributing watersheds.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗