Geology topics
Diana C. Roman
Publications and source records attributed to Diana C. Roman.
Quantifying eruptive and background seismicity, deformation, degassing, and thermal emissions at volcanoes in the United States during 1978–2020
An important aspect of volcanic hazard assessment is determination of the level and character of background activity at a volcano so that deviations from background (called unrest) can be identified. Here, we compile the instrumentally recorded eruptive and noneruptive activity for 161 US volcanoes between 1978 and 2020. We combine monitoring data from four techniques: seismicity, ground deformation, degassing, and thermal emissions. To previous work, we add the first comprehensive survey of US volcanoes using medium-spatial resolution satellite thermal observations, newly available field surveys of degassing, and new compilations of seismic and deformation data. We report previously undocumented thermal activity at 30 volcanoes using data from the spaceborne ASTER sensor during 2000–2020. To facilitate comparison of activity levels for all US volcanoes, we assign a numerical classification of the Activity Intensity Level for each monitoring technique, with the highest ranking corresponding to an eruption. There are 96 US volcanoes (59%) with at least one type of detected activity, but this represents a lower bound: For example, there are 12 volcanoes where degassing has been observed but has not yet been quantified. We identify dozens of volcanoes where volcanic activity is only measured by satellite (45% of all thermal observations), and other volcanoes where only ground-based sensors have detected activity (e.g., all seismic and 62% of measured degassing observations). Our compilation provides a baseline against which future measurements can be compared, demonstrates the need for both ground-based and remote observations, and serves as a guide for prioritizing future monitoring efforts.
Modulation of seismic activity in Kīlauea’s Upper East Rift Zone by summit pressurization
Kīlauea Volcano is underlain by a complex, laterally-extensive magmatic plumbing system. Although in recent decades it has mainly erupted through vents along the middle East Rift Zone and summit caldera, eruptions can occur anywhere along its two laterally extensive rift zones, as demonstrated by the dramatic eruptive activity of 2018. Forecasting eruptive activity requires an understanding of whether an episode of volcano-seismic unrest at Kīlauea or a similar volcano is caused directly at the edges of an active magmatic intrusion or reservoir, or in a volume of wall rock at a distance from the intrusion. Seismic unrest in Kīlauea’s Upper East Rift Zone (UERZ) has to date been interpreted as the result of either magma intrusion in this region of the volcano or of stresses due to seaward flank migration. However, recent observations suggest that UERZ seismicity may result from variable pressurization of Kīlauea’s summit magma system. We analyze seismic and deformation (multi-temporal InSAR and GPS) data during a period of variable summit deformation and UERZ seismicity in mid- to late-2007 and calculate Coulomb stress changes on UERZ faults due to modeled summit inflation or deflation. UERZ seismicity during our study period can be explained entirely by stresses arising from pressure changes within Kīlauea’s two summit reservoirs. Furthermore, a comparison of UERZ fault plane solutions (FPS) calculated for this study to published UERZ FPS for previous periods suggests the UERZ has undergone a transition from a mechanically-strong, discontinuous and immature magma transport system to a mature, mechanically-weak and fully-connected transport system over the course of the 1983-2018 eruption.
Mw 4.2 Delaware Earthquake of 30 November 2017
The 30 November 2017 Delaware earthquake with magnitude MW 4.2 occurred beneath the northeastern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula near Dover, Delaware. The earthquake and its aftershocks provide an opportunity to evaluate seismicity in a passive margin setting using much improved coverage by high-quality permanent broadband seismometers at regional distance ranges in the central and eastern United States. This is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in Delaware and triggered a collaborative rapid-response effort by seismologists at five institutions along the mid-Atlantic. As a result of this effort, eighteen portable seismographs were deployed in the epicentral region within 24 hours of the mainshock. High-quality seismic recordings at over 380 permanent regional broadband seismographic stations in the eastern United States show a remarkably small decrease in amplitude with distance between 800-2000 km. The mainshock focal mechanism shows predominantly strike-slip motion with a significant thrust component. The orientation of the subhorizontal P-axis is consistent with that of earthquakes in the nearby Reading-Lancaster seismic zone in Pennsylvania, but are rotated counter-clockwise about 45º from that of the MW 5.8 Mineral, Virginia earthquake. We detected small aftershocks below the normal event detection threshold by using a waveform cross-correlation detection method. This demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach for earthquake studies and hazard evaluation in the eastern United States. Based on their waveform similarities, repeating earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 1.5 are detected in 2010, 2015, and 2017. While there is a large time interval between events, 5 years and 2.2 years respectively, the events occur within a spatially tight cluster located near the 2017 Dover DE earthquake mainshock.
Alaska Volcano Observatory alert and forecasting timeliness: 1989–2017
The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors volcanoes in Alaska and issues notifications and warnings of volcanic unrest and eruption. We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of eruption forecasts for 53 eruptions at 20 volcanoes, beginning with Mount Redoubt's 1989–1990 eruption. Successful forecasts are defined as those where AVO issued a formal warning before eruption onset. These warning notifications are now part of AVO's Aviation Color Code and Volcanic Alert Level. This analysis considers only the start of an eruption, although many eruptions have multiple phases of activity. For the 21 eruptions at volcanoes with functioning local seismic networks, AVO has high forecasting success at volcanoes with: >15 years repose intervals and magmatic eruptions (4 out of 4, 100%); or larger eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 3 or greater; 6 out of 10, 60%). Therefore, AVO successfully forecast all four monitored, longer-repose period, VEI 3+ eruptions: Redoubt 1989–1990 and 2009, Spurr 1992, and Augustine 2005–2006. For volcanoes with functioning seismic monitoring networks, success rates are lower for: volcanoes with shorter repose periods (3 out of 16, 19%); more mafic compositions (3 out of 18, 17%); or smaller eruption size (VEI 2 or less, 1 out of 11, 9%). These eruptions (Okmok, Pavlof, Veniaminof, and Shishaldin) often lack detectable precursory signals. For 32 eruptions at volcanoes without functioning local seismic networks, the forecasting success rate is much lower (2, 6%; Kasatochi 2008 and Shishaldin 2014). For remote volcanoes where the main hazard is to aviation, rapid detection is a goal in the absence of in situ monitoring. Eruption detection has improved in recent years, shown by a decrease in the time between eruption onset and notification. Even limited seismic monitoring can detect precursory activity at volcanoes with certain characteristics (intermediate composition, longer repose times, larger eruptions), but difficulty persists in detecting subtle precursory activity at frequently active volcanoes with more mafic compositions. This suggests that volcano-specific characteristics should be considered when designing monitoring programs and evaluating forecasting success. More proximally-located sensors and data types are likely needed to forecast eruptive activity at frequently-active, more mafic volcanoes that generally produce smaller eruptions.
Joint analysis of geodetic and earthquake fault-plane solution data to constrain magmatic sources: A case study from Kīlauea Volcano
A joint analysis of geodetic and seismic datasets from Kīlauea Volcano during a period of magmatic unrest in 2006 demonstrates the effectiveness of this combination for testing and constraining models of magma dynamics for a complex, multi-source system. At the end of 2003, Kīlauea's summit began a four-year-long period of inflation due to a surge in magma supply to the volcano. In 2006, for the first time since 1982, Kīlauea's Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) also experienced inflation. To investigate the characteristics of active magma sources and the nature of their interactions with faults in the SWRZ during 2006, we integrate, through Coulomb stress modeling, contemporary geodetic data from InSAR and GPS with a new catalogue of double-couple fault-plane solutions for volcano-tectonic earthquakes. We define two periods of inflation during 2006 based on the rate of deformation measured in daily GPS data, spanning February to 15 March 2006 (Period 1) and 16 March to 30 September 2006 (Period 2). InSAR data for these two periods are inverted to determine the position, change in size, and shape of inflation sources in each period. Our new models are consistent with microseismic activity from each period. They suggest that, during Period 1, deformation in the SWRZ can be explained by pressurization of magma in a spherical reservoir beneath the south caldera, and that, during Period 2, magma was also aseismically intruded farther to the southwest into the SWRZ along a sub-horizontal plane. Our Coulomb stress analysis shows that the microseismicity recorded in the SWRZ is induced by overpressurization of the south caldera reservoir, and not by magma intrusion into the SWRZ. This study highlights the importance of a joint analysis of independent geophysical datasets to fully constrain the nature of magma accumulation.
Crustal stress and structure at Kīlauea Volcano inferred from seismic anisotropy
Seismic anisotropy, measured through shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis, can be indicative of the state of stress in Earth's crust. Changes in SWS at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, associated with the onset of summit eruptive activity in 2008 hint at the potential of the technique for tracking volcanic activity. To use SWS observations as a monitoring tool, however, it is important to understand the cause of seismic anisotropy at the volcano throughout the eruptive cycle. To address this need, we analyzed SWS results from across Kīlauea in combination with macroscopic surface structures (mapped fractures, faults, and fissures) and stress orientations inferred from fault plane solutions. Seismic anisotropy seems to be due to pervasive aligned structures in most regions of the volcano. The upper East and Southwest Rift Zones, however, show a bimodality in stress and SWS, suggesting a stress discontinuity with depth, perhaps related to magma conduits that trend obliquely to the dominant structure. Other areas in and around Kīlauea Caldera display principal stresses of similar magnitudes, indicating that small stress perturbations can rotate the maximum horizontal compressive stress direction by up to 90 ° . In these locations, static structures generally control SWS, but dynamic conditions due to magmatic activity can override the structural control. Monitoring of SWS may therefore provide important signs of impending volcanism.
Moderate-magnitude earthquakes induced by magma reservoir inflation at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i
Although volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes often occur in response to magma intrusion, it is rare for them to have magnitudes larger than ~ M 4. On 24 May 2007, two shallow M 4+ earthquakes occurred beneath the upper part of the east rift zone of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. An integrated analysis of geodetic, seismic, and field data, together with Coulomb stress modeling, demonstrates that the earthquakes occurred due to strike-slip motion on pre-existing faults that bound Kīlauea Caldera to the southeast and that the pressurization of Kīlauea's summit magma system may have been sufficient to promote faulting. For the first time, we infer a plausible origin to generate rare moderate-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea by reactivation of suitably oriented pre-existing caldera-bounding faults. Rare moderate- to large-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea and other volcanoes can therefore result from reactivation of existing fault planes due to stresses induced by magmatic processes.
Source mechanisms of persistent shallow earthquakes during eruptive and non-eruptive periods between 1981 and 2011 at Mount St. Helens, Washington
Shallow seismicity between 0 and 3-km depth has persisted at Mount St. Helens, Washington (MSH) during both eruptive and non-eruptive periods for at least the past thirty years. In this study we investigate the source mechanisms of shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes at MSH by calculating high-quality hypocenter locations and fault plane solutions (FPS) for all VT events recorded during two eruptive periods (1981–1986 and 2004–2008) and two non-eruptive periods (1987–2004 and 2008–2011). FPS show a mixture of normal, reverse, and strike-slip faulting during all periods, with a sharp increase in strike-slip faulting observed in 1987–1997 and an increase in normal faulting in 1998–2004. FPS P-axis orientations show a ~ 90° rotation with respect to regional σ1 (N23°E) during 1981–1986 and 2004–2008, bimodal orientations (~ N-S and ~ E-W) during 1987–2004, and bimodal orientations at ~ N-E and ~ S-W from 2008–2011. We interpret these orientations to likely be due to pressurization accompanying the shallow intrusion and subsequent eruption of magma as domes during 1981–1986 and 2004–2008 and the buildup of pore pressure beneath a seismogenic volume (located at 0–1 km) with a smaller component due to the buildup of tectonic forces during 1987–2004 and 2008–2011.