Geology topics

Deborah A. Reusser

Publications and source records attributed to Deborah A. Reusser.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2014

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ‐ New functionality for predicting changes in distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in response to sea level rise

Introduction Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) is an ecologically important habitat world‐wide. In Pacific Northwest (PNW) estuaries, SAV in the lower intertidal and shallow subtidal habitats are dominated by the native seagrass, Zostera marina Linnaeus, 1753. Within this report, SAV and seagrass refer to Z. marina seagrass beds in PNW estuaries. Z. marina provides important habitat for juvenile salmon, dungeness crabs, migratory shore birds, and benthic assemblages (e.g., Philips, 1984; Williamson, 2006; Ferraro and Cole, 2007; Shaughnessy et al., 2012). Z. marina typically occurs in a narrow depth range. For example, in Oregon estuaries Zostera marina primarily occurs within the depth range of ‐1 to +1 m relative to Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) (Young et al. 2012). Because of their narrow depth range, the distribution of these seagrass beds are potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) through increased water depths and associated reductions in underwater light levels, alterations in tidal variations, altered water movement and wave action, and increased seawater intrusion (Short and Neckles, 1999). The “Sea‐Level Affecting Marshes Model” (SLAMM) is a moderate resolution model used to predict the effects of sea level rise on marsh habitats (Craft et al. 2009). SLAMM has been used extensively on both the west coast (e.g., Glick et al., 2007) and east coast (e.g., Geselbracht et al., 2011) of the United States to evaluate potential changes in the distribution and extent of tidal marsh habitats. However, a limitation of the current version of SLAMM, (Version 6.2) is that it lacks the ability to model distribution changes in seagrass habitat resulting from sea level rise. Because of the ecological importance of SAV habitats, U.S. EPA, USGS, and USDA partnered with Warren Pinnacle Consulting to enhance the SLAMM modeling software to include new functionality in order to predict changes in Zostera marina distribution within Pacific Northwest estuaries in response to sea level rise. Specifically, the objective was to develop a SAV model that used generally available GIS data and parameters that were predictive and that could be customized for other estuaries that have GIS layers of existing SAV distribution. This report describes the procedure used to develop the SAV model for the Yaquina Bay Estuary, Oregon, appends a statistical script based on the open source R software to generate a similar SAV model for other estuaries that have data layers of existing SAV, and describes how to incorporate the model coefficients from the site‐specific SAV model into SLAMM to predict the effects of sea level rise on Zostera marina distributions. To demonstrate the applicability of the R tools, we utilize them to develop model coefficients for Willapa Bay, Washington using site‐specific SAV data.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Structure and vulnerability of Pacific Northwest tidal wetlands – A summary of wetland climate change research by the Western Ecology Division, U.S. EPA

Climate change poses a serious threat to the tidal wetlands of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the U.S. In response to this threat, scientists at the Western Ecology Division of the U.S. EPA at and the Western Fisheries Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, along with other partners, initiated a series of studies on the structure and vulnerability of tidal wetlands to climate change. One research thrust was to evaluate community structure of PNW marshes, experimentally assess the vulnerability of marsh plants to inundation and salinity stress (as would happen with sea level rise), and evaluate the utility of the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) classification system. Another research thrust was to develop tools that provide insights into possible impacts of climate change. This effort included enhancing the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to predict the effects of sea level rise on submerged aquatic vegetation (Zostera marina) distributions, evaluating changes in river flow into coastal estuaries in response to precipitation changes, and synthesizing Pacific Coast estuary, watershed, and climate data in a downloadable tool. Because the research resulting from these efforts was published in multiple venues, we summarized them in this document. We anticipate that future research efforts by the U.S. EPA will continue with a focus on climate change impacts on a regional scale.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2013

Geographic range and structure of cryptic genetic diversity among Pacific North American populations of the non-native amphipod Grandidierella japonica

Reconstructing the invasion history of aquatic invasive species can enhance understanding of invasion risks by recognizing areas most susceptible to invasion and forecasting future spread based on past patterns of population expansion. Here we reconstruct the invasion history of the Japanese amphipod Grandidierella japonica Stephensen 1938 combining information from historical collection data with molecular genetic data to better understand post-invasion range expansion and anthropogenic connectivity across the Pacific coast of North America. Compilation of collection data from bays and estuaries of the Pacific North American coast show many new localities have been colonized in the last two decades, moving outward from harbors and bays with high commercial traffic into smaller coastal locations dominated by local recreational traffic. DNA barcode sequence data for G. japonica reveals two distinct clades: one found in San Francisco Bay and sites to the north, and one also found in San Francisco Bay and sites to the south. The two clades differ by an average 7.28 % genetic distance, large enough to consider these invasive amphipods two separate species. Both northern and southern clades exhibit low levels of genetic diversity, suggesting a single introduction event for each. The presence of cryptic diversity within this invasive amphipod highlights the need for more extensive study of the invasive and native populations of aquatic invasive invertebrates to address questions of taxonomy, diversity, and invasion history.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2013

Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10–100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of <10 organisms with body size >50 μm per m 3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards

As a vector by which foreign species invade coastal and freshwater waterbodies, ballast water discharge from ships is recognized as a major environmental threat. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) drafted an international treaty establishing ballast water discharge standards based on the number of viable organisms per volume of ballast discharge for different organism size classes. Concerns that the IMO standards are not sufficiently protective have initiated several state and national efforts in the United States to develop more stringent standards. We evaluated seven approaches to establishing discharge standards for the >50-μm size class: (1) expert opinion/management consensus, (2) zero detectable living organisms, (3) natural invasion rates, (4) reaction–diffusion models, (5) population viability analysis (PVA) models, (6) per capita invasion probabilities (PCIP), and (7) experimental studies. Because of the difficulty in synthesizing scientific knowledge in an unbiased and transparent fashion, we recommend the use of quantitative models instead of expert opinion. The actual organism concentration associated with a “zero detectable organisms” standard is defined by the statistical rigor of its monitoring program; thus it is not clear whether such a standard is as stringent as other standards. For several reasons, the natural invasion rate, reaction–diffusion, and experimental approaches are not considered suitable for generating discharge standards. PVA models can be used to predict the likelihood of establishment of introduced species but are limited by a lack of population vital rates for species characteristic of ballast water discharges. Until such rates become available, PVA models are better suited to evaluate relative efficiency of proposed standards rather than predicting probabilities of invasion. The PCIP approach, which is based on historical invasion rates at a regional scale, appears to circumvent many of the indicated problems, although it may underestimate invasions by asexual and parthenogenic species. Further research is needed to better define propagule dose–responses, densities at which Allee effects occur, approaches to predicting the likelihood of invasion from multi-species introductions, and generation of formal comparisons of approaches using standardized scenarios.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Counting at low concentrations: the statistical challenges of verifying ballast water discharge standards

Discharge from the ballast tanks of ships is one of the primary vectors of nonindigenous species in marine environments. To mitigate this environmental and economic threat, international, national, and state entities are establishing regulations to limit the concentration of living organisms that may be discharged from the ballast tanks of ships. The proposed discharge standards have ranged from zero detectable organisms to <10 organisms/m 3 . If standard sampling methods are used, verifying whether ballast discharge complies with these stringent standards will be challenging due to the inherent stochasticity of sampling. Furthermore, at low concentrations, very large volumes of water must be sampled to find enough organisms to accurately estimate concentration. Despite these challenges, adequate sampling protocols comprise a critical aspect of establishing standards because they help define the actual risk level associated with a standard. A standard that appears very stringent may be effectively lax if it is paired with an inadequate sampling protocol. We describe some of the statistical issues associated with sampling at low concentrations to help regulators understand the uncertainties of sampling as well as to inform the development of sampling protocols that ensure discharge standards are adequately implemented.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Tidal wetlands of the Yaquina and Alsea River estuaries, Oregon: Geographic Information Systems layer development and recommendations for National Wetlands Inventory revisions

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) layers of current, and likely former, tidal wetlands in two Oregon estuaries were generated by enhancing the 2010 National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) data with expert local field knowledge, Light Detection and Ranging-derived elevations, and 2009 aerial orthophotographs. Data were generated for two purposes: First, to enhance the NWI by recommending revised Cowardin classifications for certain NWI wetlands within the study area; and second, to generate GIS data for the 1999 Yaquina and Alsea River Basins Estuarine Wetland Site Prioritization study. Two sets of GIS products were generated: (1) enhanced NWI shapefiles; and (2) shapefiles of prioritization sites. The enhanced NWI shapefiles contain recommended changes to the Cowardin classification (system, subsystem, class, and/or modifiers) for 286 NWI polygons in the Yaquina estuary (1,133 acres) and 83 NWI polygons in the Alsea estuary (322 acres). These enhanced NWI shapefiles also identify likely former tidal wetlands that are classified as upland in the current NWI (64 NWI polygons totaling 441 acres in the Yaquina estuary; 16 NWI polygons totaling 51 acres in the Alsea estuary). The former tidal wetlands were identified to assist strategic planning for tidal wetland restoration. Cowardin classifications for the former tidal wetlands were not provided, because their current hydrology is complex owing to dikes, tide gates, and drainage ditches. The scope of this project did not include the field evaluation that would be needed to determine whether the former tidal wetlands are currently wetlands, and if so, determine their correct Cowardin classification. The prioritization site shapefiles contain 49 prioritization sites totaling 2,177 acres in the Yaquina estuary, and 39 prioritization sites totaling 1,045 acres in the Alsea estuary. The prioritization sites include current and former (for example, diked) tidal wetlands, and provide landscape units appropriate for basin-scale wetland restoration and conservation action planning. Several new prioritization sites (not included in the 1999 prioritization) were identified in each estuary, consisting of NWI polygons formerly classified as nontidal wetland or upland. The GIS products of this project improve the accuracy and utility of the NWI data, and provide useful tools for estuarine resource management.

Oregon↗

USGS2012

Moderate-resolution sea surface temperature data and seasonal pattern analysis for the Arctic Ocean ecoregions

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important environmental characteristic in determining the suitability and sustainability of habitats for marine organisms. In particular, the fate of the Arctic Ocean, which provides critical habitat to commercially important fish, is in question. This poses an intriguing problem for future research of Arctic environments - one that will require examination of long-term SST records. This publication describes and provides access to an easy-to-use Arctic SST dataset for ecologists, biogeographers, oceanographers, and other scientists conducting research on habitats and/or processes in the Arctic Ocean. The data cover the Arctic ecoregions as defined by the "Marine Ecoregions of the World" (MEOW) biogeographic schema developed by The Nature Conservancy as well as the region to the north from approximately 46°N to about 88°N (constrained by the season and data coverage). The data span a 29-year period from September 1981 to December 2009. These SST data were derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument measurements that had been compiled into monthly means at 4-kilometer grid cell spatial resolution. The processed data files are available in ArcGIS geospatial datasets (raster and point shapefiles) and also are provided in text (.csv) format. All data except the raster files include attributes identifying latitude/longitude coordinates, and realm, province, and ecoregion as defined by the MEOW classification schema. A seasonal analysis of these Arctic ecoregions reveals a wide range of SSTs experienced throughout the Arctic, both over the course of an annual cycle and within each month of that cycle. Sea ice distribution plays a major role in SST regulation in all Arctic ecoregions.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2012

User’s guide and metada for the PICES Nonindigenous Species Information System

Introduction Welcome to the PICES Nonindigenous Species Information System, a Microsoft Access database that displays the biogeographic distributions, invasion status, vectors, and key life history attributes of the approximately 740 reported nonindigenous species (NIS) in the estuarine and near-coastal habitats of the North Pacific and Hawaii. This database was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey under the auspices of Working Group 21 (Invasive Species) of the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PCIES). The PICES database contains the data used to generate the “Atlas of Nonindigenous Marine and Estuarine Species in the North Pacific” (Lee and Reusser, 2012; herein referred to as the “Atlas”). The User’s Guide provides instructions on how to use the PICES database as well as metadata for the database and the Atlas. We note that for most users, the Atlas provides a simpler approach to accessing key information on NIS in the PICES countries than the database, though the database does provide additional information on species and sources as well as allowing users to extract information on specific taxa and/or locations (see Section 4). The PICES database also includes species reported from the PICES Rapid Assessment Surveys (RAS). PICES sponsored four rapid assessment surveys with the objective of quickly characterizing the native, non-native, and cryptogenic species present in different locations. Surveys were sponsored in Dalian, China in 2008, Jeju, Korea in 2009, Newport, Oregon, USA in 2010, and Peter the Great Bay, near Vladivostok and Nakhodka, Russia in 2011 ( http://www.pices.int/publications/pices_press/volume19/v19_n1/pp_30-31_Kobe-WS_f.pdf , http://www.pices.int/publications/pices_press/volume20/v20_n1/pp_26-29_RAS-2011.pdf ). The PICES database contains the RAS species that were made available in time for inclusion. Thus, the database does not capture all the species found in these surveys. In addition, much of the information on the RAS species was provided by the experts conducting the survey, and their distributions, environmental requirements, and life history attributes were not evaluated to the same level of detail by the PICES authors as the North Pacific NIS. In lieu of the more extensive review as conduced with the Atlas species, the information on the RAS species needs to be considered preliminary. Additionally, it is important to use the “Map All Distributions” option (see Section 3.6.6) when mapping their distribution or conducting a query. The general reference for the RAS surveys in the PICES database is “PICES Working Group 21, YEAR SURVEY”. The overall goal of both the database and Atlas was to simplify and standardize the dissemination of distributional, habitat, and life history characteristics of near-coastal and estuarine nonindigenous species. This database provides a means of querying these data and displaying the information in a consistent format. The specific classes of information the database captures include: Regional and global ranges of native and nonindigenous near-coastal and estuarine species at different hierarchical spatial scales. Habitat and physiological requirements of near-coastal and estuarine species. Life history characteristics of near-coastal and estuarine species. Invasion history and vectors for nonindigenous species. This standardized and synthesized data in the database and the Atlas provide the basic information needed to address a number of managerial and scientific needs. Thus, users will be able to: Create a baseline on the extent of invasion by region in order to assess new invasions. Use existing geographical patterns of invasion to gain some insights into potential new invaders. Use existing geographical patters of invasion to gain some insights into mechanisms affecting relative invasibility of different areas. Use life history attributes and environmental requirements of the reported nonindigenous species to evaluate traits of invaders. Understand the potential spread of invaders based on their habitat and environmental requirements. Understand importance of different vectors of introduction of nonindigenous species by region. The data in the Atlas of Nonindigenous Marine and Estuarine Species in the North Pacific (Lee and Reusser, 2012) are up-to-date as of June 2012. Updates to the PICES database were made in September 2012.

Report↗

USGS2012

Atlas of nonindigenous marine and estuarine species in the North Pacific

Executive Summary Marine and estuarine nonindigenous species (NIS) are found across the world’s oceans, and designing effective management strategies to mitigate this economic, ecological and human health threat requires a basic understanding of the existing invasion patterns at regional to global scales. However, to date, syntheses at ocean basin scales have essentially been nonexistent. To fill the gap for the North Pacific, we synthesized the distributions, invasion history, environmental tolerances, and natural history of the near-coastal nonindigenous species (NIS) reported from the member countries of the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES; United States, Canada, China, Republic of Korea, Japan, and Russia). The hierarchical “Marine Ecoregions of the World” (MEOW) biogeographic schema was used as the framework for assessing species’ distributions, with the modification that we added a “region” level to differentiate eastern and western sides of oceans. The two North Pacific regions are the Northeast Pacific (NEP), which extends from the Gulf of California to the Aleutian Islands, and the Northwest Pacific (NWP), which extends from the East China Sea to the Kamchatka Shelf. To have complete coverage of the United States, we included the MEOW Hawaii Ecoregion as a separate reporting unit. To have complete coverage of Japan and China, we combined five MEOW ecoregions in southern China and Japan into the North Central-Indo Pacific (NCIP) Region. The various types of information were synthesized in a Microsoft Access database, the “PICES Nonindigenous Species Information System”, which is further described in the “User’s Guide and Metadata for the PICES Nonindigenous Species Information System” (Lee et al., 2012). The PICES database was then used to generate two-page “species profiles” that map the native and introduced distributions of each species and provide a standardized summary of its invasion history, environmental tolerances, and natural history. These species profiles form the bulk of the “Atlas of Nonindigenous Marine and Estuarine Species in the North Pacific”. A total of 747 near-coastal nonindigenous species were identified in the PICES countries, with four phyla (Arthropoda, Chordata, Mollusca, and Annelida) constituting more than 70% of these invaders. The NEP and Hawaii have similar numbers of reported nonindigenous species, 368 and 347, respectively. In comparison, the NWP has about 60% of the number of reported NIS, 208. The NCIP contains only 73 NIS, though there is limited information for these ecoregions. When evaluated at an individual MEOW ecoregion scale, the Hawaii Ecoregion was the most invaded with 347 invaders, followed by the Northern California Ecoregion, which includes the San Francisco Estuary, with 287 NIS. The most invaded ecoregion in the NWP was the Central Kuroshio Current Ecoregion, which includes Tokyo Bay, with 87 reported NIS. Eight potential reasons for this geographical discrepancy in the extent of invasion were considered. The two most important appear to be: 1) the milder temperature regimes in the NEP and Hawaii are more conducive for NWP species to invade the NEP and Hawaii than the reverse and 2) there has been a greater search effort for NIS in Hawaii and the NEP at least for certain taxonomic groups. In terms of how the NIS were transported, hull fouling was potentially the most important vector in the NEP, NWP, and Hawaii, with ballast water discharges the second most important in all three regions. Intentional stocking and aquaculture escapees were relatively more important in the NWP than the NEP or Hawaii, reflecting the extensive aquaculture in Asia. Aquaculture associated species (i.e., aquaculture hitchhikers) was relatively important in the NEP, reflecting the historical influx of invaders with the importation of Atlantic and Pacific oysters.

Report↗

USGS2011

Evolution of natural history information in the 21st century – developing an integrated framework for biological and geographical data

Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuarine scale to invasive species and climate change at regional and global scales. To help address research questions across these scales, we provide here a standardized framework for a biogeographical information system containing queriable biological data that allows extraction of information on multiple species, across a variety of spatial scales based on species distributions, natural history attributes and habitat requirements. As scientists shift from research on localized impacts on individual species to regional and global scale threats, macroecological approaches of studying multiple species over broad geographical areas are becoming increasingly important. The standardized framework described here for capturing and integrating biological and geographical data is a critical first step towards addressing these macroecological questions and we urge organizations capturing biogeoinformatics data to consider adopting this framework.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2011

Moderate-resolution sea surface temperature data for the nearshore North Pacific

Coastal sea surface temperature (SST) is an important environmental characteristic in determining the suitability of habitat for nearshore marine and estuarine organisms. This publication describes and provides access to an easy-to-use coastal SST dataset for ecologists, biogeographers, oceanographers, and other scientists conducting research on nearshore marine habitats or processes. The data cover the Temperate Northern Pacific Ocean as defined by the 'Marine Ecosystems of the World' (MEOW) biogeographic schema developed by The Nature Conservancy. The spatial resolution of the SST data is 4-km grid cells within 20 km of the shore. The data span a 29-year period - from September 1981 to December 2009. These SST data were derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument measurements compiled into monthly means as part of the Pathfinder versions 5.0 and 5.1 (PFSST V50 and V51) Project. The processing methods used to transform the data from their native Hierarchical Data Format Scientific Data Set (HDF SDS) to georeferenced, spatial datasets capable of being read into geographic information systems (GIS) software are explained. In addition, links are provided to examples of scripts involved in the data processing steps. The scripts were written in the Python programming language, which is supported by ESRI's ArcGIS version 9 or later. The processed data files are also provided in text (.csv) and Access 2003 Database (.mdb) formats. All data except the raster files include attributes identifying realm, province, and ecoregion as defined by the MEOW classification schema.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Impacts of climate change on Oregon's coasts and estuaries

Earth’s changing climate is expected to have significant physical impacts along the coast and estuarine shorelands of Oregon, ranging from increased erosion and inundation of low lying areas, to wetland loss and increased estuarine salinity. The environmental changes associated with climate change include rising sea levels, increased occurrences of severe storms, rising air and water temperatures, and ocean acidification. The combination of these processes and their climate controls are important to beach and property erosion, flood probabilities, and estuarine water quality, with the expectation of significant changes projected for the 21st century. In the following sections we attempt to summarize the most recent literature documenting historical changes as well as what may be expected to occur in response to climate change. Where little information is available we draw preliminary conclusions about the potential for specific impacts. When possible we highlight what research is needed to bridge knowledge gaps to improve our ability to identify climate change impacts more precisely, ultimately allowing for future projections.

Oregon↗

USGS2008

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Conservation Biology↗