Geology topics

David M. Wolock

Publications and source records attributed to David M. Wolock.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2020

The water-year water balance of the Colorado River Basin

Model‐estimated monthly water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff ( R )) for 146 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the CRB water balance for water years 1901 through 2014 (a water year is the period from October 1 of one year through September 30 of the following year). Results indicate that the CRB can be divided into six subregions with similar temporal variability in monthly R . The water balance analyses indicated that approximately 75% of total water‐year R is generated by just one CRB subregion and that most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus ( S ) water generated during the months of October through April. Furthermore, the analyses show that temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the northwestern conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the southeastern CONUS. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the North Pacific Ocean into the CRB, particularly the Upper CRB. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods in the CRB appears to be related to variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2020

Basinwide hydroclimatic drought in the Colorado River basin

The Colorado River basin (CRB) supplies water to approximately 40 million people and is essential to hydropower generation, agriculture, and industry. In this study, a monthly water balance model is used to compute hydroclimatic water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff) for the period 1901–2014 across the entire CRB. The time series of monthly runoff is aggregated to compute water-year runoff and then used to identify drought periods in the basin. For the 1901–2014 period, eight basinwide drought periods were identified. The driest drought period spanned years 1901–04, whereas the longest drought period occurred during 1943–56. The eight droughts were primarily driven by winter precipitation deficits rather than warm temperature anomalies. In addition, an analysis of prehistoric drought for the CRB—computed using tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index—indicates that during some past centuries drought frequency was higher than during the twentieth century and that some centuries experienced droughts that were much longer than those during the twentieth century. More frequent or longer droughts than those that occurred during the twentieth century, combined with continued warming associated with climate change, may lead to substantial future water deficits in the CRB.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2019

Severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes based on hydrologic metrics in the conterminous United States, 1980–2014

Alteration of the natural streamflow regime by land and water management, such as land-cover change and dams, is associated with aquatic ecosystem degradation. The severity and geographic extent of streamflow alteration at regional and national scales, however, remain largely unquantified. The primary goal of this study is to characterize the severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes for 1980–2014 based on hydrologic metrics at 3,355 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the conterminous United States. Twelve hydrologic metrics with known relevance to aquatic ecosystem health were used to characterize the streamflow regime. Alterations to the 12 hydrologic metrics were quantified by taking ratios of the metrics calculated from observed daily streamflow records divided by the same metrics predicted for natural conditions by random forest statistical models. Some level of streamflow alteration (diminishment or inflation of hydrologic metrics) compared to natural conditions was indicated at about 80 percent of the assessed streamgages across the conterminous United States. The severity of alteration differed among ecoregions because of differences in dominant land and water management practices. Finally, when compared over the period 1980–2014, climate variability generally played a minor role in the alteration of streamflows across the United States when compared to the effects of land and water management.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2019

Flow modification in the Nation’s streams and rivers

This report summarizes a national assessment of flowing waters conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Project and addresses several pressing questions about the modification of natural flows in streams and rivers. The assessment is based on the integration, modeling, and synthesis of monitoring data collected by the USGS and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at more than 7,000 streams and rivers across the conterminous United States from 1980 to 2014. Key findings include the following. First, flow in many of the Nation’s streams and rivers is different from what it would be under natural conditions. In particular, low flows are more frequent, are of shorter duration, and vary less from one year to the next than they would naturally. In addition, high flows have been reduced in magnitude, are of shorter duration, are less frequent, and vary less from one year to the next than they would naturally. Other characteristics of natural flows also have been modified. Second, over the last 60 years (1955–2014), climatic trends have caused a change of 50 percent or more in one or more streamflow attributes at two-thirds of climate-sensitive streamgaging sites. However, these climate-induced changes have been less influential on streamflow modification than have land and water-management practices. Third, in every region assessed, streamflow modification was associated with reduced ecological health, as indicated by two biological communities—invertebrates and fish. Biological communities were increasingly likely to be impaired (defined as having lost a statistically significant number of species) in streams with flows most different from natural conditions. Finally, several case studies are presented that illustrate viable management strategies for balancing the water needs of people and ecosystems.

Circular↗

USGS2019

Streamflow—Water year 2018

The maps and graphs in this summary describe national streamflow conditions for water year 2018 (October 1, 2017, to September 30, 2018) in the context of streamflow ranks relative to the 89-year period of water years 1930–2018. The illustrations are based on observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow Network. Annual runoff in the Nation’s rivers and streams during water year 2018 was higher than the long-term (water years 1930–2018) mean annual runoff of 9.33 inches. Nationwide, the 2018 streamflow ranked 33d highest out of the 89 years.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2019

Regional-scale associations between indicators of biological integrity and indicators of streamflow modification

Although streamflow is widely recognized as a controlling factor in stream health, empirical relations between indicators of anthropogenic modification of streamflow and ecological indicators have been elusive. The objective of this report is to build upon specific findings reported in recent publications by providing a library of empirical models that describe the relations between streamflow modification and indicators of biological integrity. Biological monitoring data from 812 streams and rivers across the United States were matched with sites where daily streamflow was also monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey. Of these sites, 118 were sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey along gradients of streamflow modification within 3 regional focus studies. The integrity of invertebrate and fish communities was expressed as a binary variable, “impaired” or “unimpaired,” signifying whether or not the composition and structure of the biological community was statistically reduced relative to regional reference sites. Streamflow modification at each gaged site was quantified with 509 streamflow statistics scaled to express the ratio of observed streamflow conditions to site-specific expected conditions in the absence of human influences on watershed hydrology. For each region, generalized additive modeling was used to examine relations between each indicator of streamflow modification and indicators of biological integrity (response variable). In every region examined, statistically defensible and ecologically realistic relations were found between indicators of streamflow modification and indicators of biological integrity. These findings can aid practitioners and managers seeking to (1) propose empirically based hypotheses about the specific components of streamflow regimes that are critical to aquatic communities, which can subsequently be explored in detail in a region or river basin of interest; and (2) predict biological responses to anthropogenic modification of specific components of the streamflow regime.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [ R ]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8-digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R . The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water-year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus ( S ) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo-climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.

Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS2019

A new indicator framework for quantifying the intensity of the terrestrialwater cycle

A quantitative framework for characterizing the intensity of the water cycle over land is presented, and illustrated using a spatially distributed water-balance model of the conterminous United States (CONUS). We approach water cycle intensity (WCI) from a landscape perspective; WCI is defined as the sum of precipitation (P) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) over a spatially explicit landscape unit of interest, averaged over a specified time period (step) of interest. The time step may be of any length for which data or simulation results are available (e.g., sub-daily to multi-decadal). We define the storage-adjusted runoff (Q0) as the sum of actual runoff (Q) and the rate of change in soil moisture storage (DS/Dt, positive or negative) during the time step of interest. The Q0 indicator is demonstrated to be mathematically complementary to WCI, in a manner that allows graphical interpretation of their relationship. For the purposes of this study, the indicators were demonstrated using long-term, spatially distributed model simulations with an annual time step. WCI was found to increase over most of the CONUS between the 1945 to 1974 and 1985 to 2014 periods, driven primarily by increases in P. In portions of the western and southeastern CONUS, Q0 decreased because of decreases in Q and soil moisture storage. Analysis of WCI and Q0 at temporal scales ranging from sub-daily to multi-decadal could improve understanding of the wide spectrum of hydrologic responses that have been attributed to water cycle intensification, as well as trends in those responses.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2018

A database of natural monthly streamflow estimates from 1950 to 2015 for the conterminous United States

Quantifying and understanding the natural streamflow regime, defined as expected streamflow that would occur in the absence of anthropogenic modification to the hydrologic system, is critically important for the development of management strategies aimed at protecting aquatic ecosystems. Water balance models have been applied frequently to estimate natural flows, but are limited in the number of predictor variables that can be included. Here, a statistical machine learning technique — random forest modeling — was applied to estimate natural flows at a monthly time‐step from 1950 to 2015 for >2.5 million stream reaches in the conterminous United States (U.S.) using 200 potential predictor variables. We describe the development and documentation of this dataset and assess model performance. Model fit statistics (mean Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.85; observed/expected ratio = 0.94) indicate good correspondence between predicted and observed flows at nearly 2,000 streamgages. As an example application of the dataset, the observed streamflow record at a site prior to and after the construction of an upstream reservoir was compared with estimated natural flows to demonstrate the magnitude of seasonal depletions in streamflow due to the reservoir. This dataset can be applied to quantify natural and anthropogenic processes contributing to streamflow depletion or augmentation, and assess associated ecological effects.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2018

Streamflow - Water Year 2017

The maps and graphs in this summary describe national streamflow conditions for water year 2017 (October 1, 2016, to September 30, 2017) in the context of streamflow ranks relative to the 88-year period of 1930–2017, unless otherwise noted. The illustrations are based on observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Streamflow Network (U.S. Geological Survey, 2018a). The period of 1930–2017 was used because the number of streamgages before 1930 was too small to provide representative data for computing statistics for most regions of the country. In the summary, reference is made to the term “runoff,” which is the depth to which a river basin, State, or other geographic area would be covered with water if all the streamflow within the area during a specified period was uniformly distributed on it. The value of runoff quantifies the magnitude of water flowing through the Nation’s rivers and streams in measurement units that can be compared from one area to another. In this summary, runoff for a specified period and geographic area is computed from all streamgages with complete record in the geographic area. In all the graphics, a rank of 1 indicates the highest annual flow of all years analyzed and 88 indicates the lowest annual flow of all years. Rankings of streamflow are grouped into much below normal, below normal, normal, above normal, and much above normal based on percentiles of flow (less than 10 percent, 10–24 percent, 25–75 percent, 76–90 percent, and greater than 90 percent, respectively; U.S. Geological Survey, 2018b). States or water-resources regions are presented in the text in order of ranking; a highest or lowest rank is not shown when there are ties in the rankings. Some of the data used to produce the maps and graphs are provisional and subject to change.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2018

Warming is driving decreases in snow fractions while runoff efficiency remains mostly unchanged in snow-covered areas of the western United States

Winter snowfall and accumulation is an important component of the surface water supply in the western United States. In these areas, increasing winter temperatures T associated with global warming can influence the amount of winter precipitation P that falls as snow S . In this study we examine long-term trends in the fraction of winter P that falls as S (Sfrac) for 175 hydrologic units (HUs) in snow-covered areas of the western United States for the period 1951–2014. Because S is a substantial contributor to runoff R across most of the western United States, we also examine long-term trends in water-year runoff efficiency [computed as water-year R /water-year P (Reff)] for the same 175 HUs. In that most S records are short in length, we use model-simulated S and R from a monthly water balance model. Results for Sfrac indicate long-term negative trends for most of the 175 HUs, with negative trends for 139 (~79%) of the HUs being statistically significant at a 95% confidence level ( p = 0.05). Additionally, results indicate that the long-term negative trends in Sfrac have been largely driven by increases in T . In contrast, time series of Reff for the 175 HUs indicate a mix of positive and negative long-term trends, with few trends being statistically significant (at p = 0.05). Although there has been a notable shift in the timing of R to earlier in the year for most HUs, there have not been substantial decreases in water-year R for the 175 HUs.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2018

Variability of hydrological droughts in the conterminous United States, 1951 through 2014

Spatial and temporal variability in the frequency, duration, and severity of hydrological droughts across the conterminous United States (CONUS) was examined using monthly mean streamflow measured at 872 sites from 1951 through 2014. Hydrological drought is identified as starting when streamflow falls below the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months and ending when streamflow remains above the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months. Mean drought frequency for all aggregated ecoregions in CONUS is 16 droughts per 100 years. Mean drought duration is 5 months, and mean drought severity is 39 percent on a scale ranging from 0 percent to 100 percent (with 100% being the most severe). Hydrological drought frequency is highest in the Western Mountains aggregated ecoregion and lowest in the Eastern Highlands, Northeast, and Southeast Plains aggregated ecoregions. Hydrological drought frequencies of 17 or more droughts per 100 years were found for the Central Plains, Southeast Coastal Plains, Western Mountains, and Western Xeric aggregated ecoregions. Drought duration and severity indicate spatial variability among the sites, but unlike drought frequency, do not show coherent spatial patterns. A comparison of an older period (1951–82) with a recent period (1983–2014) indicates few sites have statistically significant changes in drought frequency, drought duration, or drought severity at a 95-percent confidence level.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

A conceptual framework for effectively anticipating water-quality changes resulting from changes in agricultural activities

Agricultural activities can affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems; many water-quality issues originate with the movement of water, agricultural chemicals, and eroded soil from agricultural areas to streams and groundwater. Most agricultural activities are designed to sustain or increase crop production, while some are designed to protect soil and water resources. Numerous soil- and water-protection practices are designed to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff and increase infiltration. This report presents a conceptual framework that combines generalized concepts on the movement of water, the environmental behavior of chemicals and eroded soil, and the designed functions of various agricultural activities, as they relate to hydrology, to create attainable expectations for the protection of—with the goal of improving—water quality through changes in an agricultural activity. The framework presented uses two types of decision trees to guide decision making toward attainable expectations regarding the effectiveness of changing agricultural activities to protect and improve water quality in streams. One decision tree organizes decision making by considering the hydrologic setting and chemical behaviors, largely at the field scale. This decision tree can help determine which agricultural activities could effectively protect and improve water quality in a stream from the movement of chemicals, or sediment, from a field. The second decision tree is a chemical fate accounting tree. This decision tree helps set attainable expectations for the permanent removal of sediment, elements, and organic chemicals—such as herbicides and insecticides—through trapping or conservation tillage practices. Collectively, this conceptual framework consolidates diverse hydrologic settings, chemicals, and agricultural activities into a single, broad context that can be used to set attainable expectations for agricultural activities. This framework also enables better decision making for future agricultural activities as a means to reduce current, and prevent new, water-quality issues.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Evidence that recent warming is reducing upper Colorado River flows

The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past three decades have resulted in a mean UCRB water-year streamflow departure of −1306 million m 3 (or −7% of mean water-year streamflow). Additionally, warm-season (April through September) temperature has had a larger effect on variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than the cool-season (October through March) temperature. The greater contribution of warm-season temperature, relative to cool-season temperature, to variability of UCRB flow suggests that evaporation or snowmelt, rather than changes from snow to rain during the cool season, has driven recent reductions in UCRB flow. It is expected that as warming continues, the negative effects of temperature on water-year UCRB streamflow will become more evident and problematic.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Estimating discharge and nonpoint source nitrate loading to streams from three end‐member pathways using high‐frequency water quality data

The myriad hydrologic and biogeochemical processes taking place in watersheds occurring across space and time are integrated and reflected in the quantity and quality of water in streams and rivers. Collection of high‐frequency water quality data with sensors in surface waters provides new opportunities to disentangle these processes and quantify sources and transport of water and solutes in the coupled groundwater‐surface water system. A new approach for separating the streamflow hydrograph into three components was developed and coupled with high‐frequency nitrate data to estimate time‐variable nitrate loads from chemically dilute quick flow, chemically concentrated quick flow, and slowflow groundwater end‐member pathways for periods of up to 2 years in a groundwater‐dominated and a quick‐flow‐dominated stream in central Wisconsin, using only streamflow and in‐stream water quality data. The dilute and concentrated quick flow end‐members were distinguished using high‐frequency specific conductance data. Results indicate that dilute quick flow contributed less than 5% of the nitrate load at both sites, whereas 89 ± 8% of the nitrate load at the groundwater‐dominated stream was from slowflow groundwater, and 84 ± 25% of the nitrate load at the quick‐flow‐dominated stream was from concentrated quick flow. Concentrated quick flow nitrate concentrations varied seasonally at both sites, with peak concentrations in the winter that were 2–3 times greater than minimum concentrations during the growing season. Application of this approach provides an opportunity to assess stream vulnerability to nonpoint source nitrate loading and expected stream responses to current or changing conditions and practices in watersheds.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2017

Streamflow of 2016—Water year summary

The maps and graphs in this summary describe national streamflow conditions for water year 2016 (October 1, 2015, to September 30, 2016) in the context of streamflow ranks relative to the 87-year period of 1930–2016, unless otherwise noted. The illustrations are based on observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Streamflow Network. The period of 1930–2016 was used because the number of streamgages before 1930 was too small to provide representative data for computing statistics for most regions of the country. In the summary, reference is made to the term “runoff,” which is the depth to which a river basin, State, or other geographic area would be covered with water if all the streamflow within the area during a specified period was uniformly distributed on it. Runoff quantifies the magnitude of water flowing through the Nation’s rivers and streams in measurement units that can be compared from one area to another. In all the graphics, a rank of 1 indicates the highest flow of all years analyzed and 87 indicates the lowest flow of all years. Rankings of streamflow are grouped into much below normal, below normal, normal, above normal, and much above normal based on percentiles of flow (less than 10 percent, 10–24 percent, 25–75 percent, 76–90 percent, and greater than 90 percent, respectively). Some of the data used to produce the maps and graphs are provisional and subject to change.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2017

Streamflow alteration and habitat ramifications for a threatened fish species in the Central United States

In the Central United States, the Arkansas darter ( Etheostoma cragini ) is listed as a threatened fish species by the State of Kansas. Survival of the darter is threatened by loss of habitat caused by changing streamflow conditions, in particular flow depletion. Future management of darter populations and habitats requires an understanding of streamflow conditions and how those conditions may have changed over time in response to natural and anthropogenic factors. In Kansas, streamflow alteration was assessed at 9 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in 6 priority basins with no pronounced long-term trends in precipitation. The assessment was based on a comparison of observed (O) and predicted expected (E) reference conditions for 29 flow metrics. The O/E results indicated a likely or possible diminished flow condition in 2 basins; the primary cause of which is groundwater-level declines resulting from groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture. In these 2 basins, habitat characteristics adversely affected by flow depletion may include stream connectivity, pools, and water temperature. The other 4 basins were minimally affected, or unaffected, by flow depletion and therefore may provide the best opportunity for preservation of darter habitat. Through the O/E analysis, anthropogenic streamflow alteration was quantified and the results will enable better-informed decisions pertaining to the future management of darters in Kansas.

Kansas↗

USGS2017

Predictability and selection of hydrologic metrics in riverine ecohydrology

The natural flow regime is critical to the health of riverine ecosystems. Many hydrologic metrics (HMs) have been developed to describe natural flow regimes, quantify flow alteration, and provide the hydrologic foundation for the development of environmental flow standards. Many applications require the use of models to predict expected natural values of HMs from basin characteristics at sites with no observed records of unimpaired flows. However, the error associated with HM estimation has not been evaluated. The primary goal of our study was to provide guidance for river scientists and managers in the selection, use, and interpretation of HMs for stream classification and hydroecological investigations of river ecosystems. We evaluated the predictability of a broad suite of HMs for the conterminous USA based on random forest statistical models. We also examined how the predictability of metrics varied among unique components of the flow regime. Roughly 40% of 612 HMs we examined could be predicted reliably from basin characteristics. The predictable metrics were disproportionately represented in 5 flow components: asymmetry, seasonality, magnitude, variability, and average monthly flows. Most metrics that represent extreme hydrological events (i.e., high and low flows) could not be reliably predicted. Roughly ⅔ of the evaluated HMs were incalculable or highly biased at intermittent/ephemeral streams because of the need for logarithmic transformations or scaling by other HMs, such as mean flows or percentile flow thresholds. Scaling metrics by drainage area tended to improve predictability. We recommend that the predictability of HMs be given greater consideration in studies and applications in which they are used to characterize and assess alteration of streamflow regimes.

Freshwater Science↗