USGS Science⌕ Search

Geology topics

David M. Bjerklie

Publications and source records attributed to David M. Bjerklie.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Watershed scale response to climate change--Pomperaug River Watershed, Connecticut

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Pomperaug River Basin at Southbury, Connecticut.

Connecticut↗

Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the New Haven area and from new information on groundwater levels collected during October 2009-June 2010. For the scenario with a 3-ft rise in sea level and no increase in recharge, simulated groundwater levels near the coast rose 3 ft; this increased water level tapered off toward a discharge area at the only nontidal stream in the study area. Simulated stream discharge increased at the nontidal stream because of the increased gradient. Although groundwater levels rose, the simulated difference between the groundwater levels in the aquifer and the increased sea level declined, indicating that the depth to the interface between freshwater and saltwater may possibly decline. Simulated water levels were affected by rise in sea level even in areas where the water table was at 17-24 ft (5.2-7.3 m) above current (2011) sea level. For the scenario with increased recharge, simulated groundwater levels were as much as an additional foot higher at some locations in the study area. The results of this preliminary investigation indicate that groundwater levels in coastal areas can be expected to rise and may rise higher if groundwater recharge also increases. This finding has implications for the disposal of stormwater through infiltration, a low-impact development practice designed to improve water quality and reduce overland peak discharge. Other implications include increased risk of basement flooding and increased groundwater seepage into underground sewer pipes and utility corridors in some areas. These implications will present engineering challenges to New Haven and Yale University. The preliminary model developed for this study can be the starting point for further simulation of future alternative scenarios for sea-level rise and recharge. Further simulations could identify those areas of New Haven where infrastructure may be at greatest risk from rising levels of groundwater. The simulations described in this report have limitations due to the preliminary scope of the work. Approaches to improve simulations include but are not limited to incorporating: * The variable density of seawater into the model in order to understand the current and future location of the interface between freshwater and saltwater; * Collection of additional data in order to better resolve temporal and spatial patterns in water levels in the aquifer; * Improved estimates of recharge through direct and indirect measurements of freshwater discharge from the study area; and * Transient simulations for greater understanding of the amount of time required for water levels and the position of the interface between freshwater and saltwater to adjust to changes in sea level and recharge.

Connecticut↗

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulations of historical and future trends in snowfall and groundwater recharge for basins draining to Long Island Sound

A regional watershed model was developed for watersheds contributing to Long Island Sound, including the Connecticut River basin. The study region covers approximately 40 900 km 2 , extending from a moderate coastal climate zone in the south to a mountainous northern New England climate zone dominated by snowmelt in the north. The input data indicate that precipitation and temperature have been increasing for the last 46 years (1961– 2006) across the region. Minimum temperature has increased more than maximum temperature over the same period (1961–2006). The model simulation indicates that there was an upward trend in groundwater recharge across most of the modeled region. However, trends in increasing precipitation and groundwater recharge are not significant at the 0.05 level if the drought of 1961–67 is removed from the time series. The trend in simulated snowfall is not significant across much of the region, although there is a significant downward trend in southeast Connecticut and in central Massachusetts. To simulate future trends, two input datasets, one assuming high carbon emissions and one assuming low carbon emissions, were developed from GCM forecasts. Under both of the carbon emission scenarios, simulations indicate that historical trends will continue, with increases in groundwater recharge over much of the region and substantial snowfall decreases across Massachusetts, Connecticut, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire. The increases in groundwater recharge and decreases in snowfall are most pronounced for the high emission scenario.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode I↗

Connecticut Highlands technical report— Documentation of the regional rainfall-runoff model

This report provides the supporting data and describes the data sources, methodologies, and assumptions used in the assessment of existing and potential water resources of the Highlands of Connecticut and Pennsylvania (referred to herein as the “Highlands”). Included in this report are Highlands groundwater and surface-water use data and the methods of data compilation. Annual mean streamflow and annual mean base-flow estimates from selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations were computed using data for the period of record through water year 2005. The methods of watershed modeling are discussed and regional and sub-regional water budgets are provided. Information on Highlands surface-water-quality trends is presented. USGS web sites are provided as sources for additional information on groundwater levels, streamflow records, and ground- and surface-water-quality data. Interpretation of these data and the findings are summarized in the Highlands study report.

Connecticut↗

Estimation of the effects of land use and groundwater withdrawals on streamflow for the Pomperaug River, Connecticut

A precipitation runoff model for the Pomperaug River watershed, Connecticut was developed to address issues of concern including the effect of development on streamflow and groundwater recharge, and the implications of water withdrawals on streamflow. The model was parameterized using a strategy that requires a minimum of calibration and optimization by establishing basic relations between the parameter value and physical characteristics of individual hydrologic response units (HRUs) that comprise the model. The strategy was devised so that the information needed can be obtained from Geographic Information System and other general databases for Connecticut. Simulation of groundwater recharge enabled evaluation of the temporal and spatial mapping of recharge variation across the watershed and the spatial effects of changes in land cover on base flow and surface runoff. The modeling indicated that over the course of a year, groundwater provides between 60 and 70 percent of flow in the Pomperaug River; the remainder is generated by more rapid flow through the shallow subsurface and runoff from impermeable surfaces and saturated ground. Groundwater is recharged primarily during periods of low evapotranspiration in the winter, spring, and fall. The largest amount of recharge occurs in the spring in response to snowmelt. During floods, the Weekeepeemee and Nonnewaug Rivers (tributaries that form the Pomperaug River) respond rapidly with little flood peak attenuation due to flood-plain storage. In the Pomperaug River, flood-plain storage is more important in attenuating floods; abandoned quarry ponds (O&G ponds) adjacent to the river provide substantial flood storage above specific river stages when flow from the river spills over the banks and fills the ponds. Discharge from the ponds also helps to sustain low flows in the Pomperaug River. Similarly, releases from the Bronson-Lockwood reservoir sustain flow in the Nonnewaug River and tend to offset the effect of groundwater withdrawals from a well field adjacent to the river during periods of natural low flow. The model indicated that under the current zoning, future development could reduce low flows by as much as 10 percent at the 99 percent exceedance level (99 percent of flows are greater than or equal to this flow), but would not substantially increase the highest flows. Simulation of projected and hypothetical development in the watershed shows, depending on how stormwater is managed, that between 10 and 20 percent effective impervious area in an HRU results in streamflow becoming dominated by the surface-runoff component. This shift from a groundwater-dominated system would likely result in substantial changes in water quality and instream habitat characteristics of the river. Base flow to streams in the Pomperaug River watershed is reduced by both increased impervious surface and increased groundwater withdrawals. For the watershed as a whole, increasing groundwater withdrawals have the potential for causing greater overall reductions in flow compared to increased development and impervious surfaces. Additionally, on the basis of groundwater-modeling simulations, the projected increase in development across the watershed and, to a lesser extent the increase in groundwater withdrawals, will increase the number of local losing reaches experiencing dry conditions and the duration of these dry periods. The location of the losing reaches tends to be in areas near the transition from the uplands to the valley bottoms that are filled with coarse glacial stratified deposits. The simulated increase in the duration and extent of localized dry stream reaches is most sensitive to local increase in impervious surface. Conversion of land from forest or developed land cover to pasture or agricultural land increases groundwater recharge and discharge to streams, while at the same time increasing overall streamflow (the opposite effect as increased impervious surface). These resu

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeology and numerical simulation of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer in the Pootatuck River Basin, Newtown, Connecticut

A study of the groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction in the Pootatuck River Basin, Newtown, Connecticut, was conducted to analyze the effect of production wells on the groundwater levels and streamflow in the Pootatuck River as part of a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey and Newtown, Connecticut. This study will help address concerns about the increasing competition for water for human uses and protection of aquatic habitat. The groundwater-flow model developed in the study was designed for use as a tool to assist planners in assessing the effects of potential future development, which will change the amount and distribution of recharge available to the groundwater system. Several different techniques were used to investigate the interconnection between the stream and the aquifer. Temperature, groundwater levels, stream stage, and stable-isotope data collected during aquifer tests at the principal production wells in the Pootatuck River Basin, as well as groundwater-flow simulations of the system, indicate that more than half of the water pumped from the wells comes from the Pootatuck River. This finding potentially has a large effect on approaches for protecting the water quality of the pumped water. Increases in the amount of impervious surface from future development will reduce and redistribute recharge to the groundwater system. The simulation of future development scenarios showed a decrease in the simulated base flow in the main stem of the Pootatuck River and in all of the 26 simulated subbasins, with some of the subbasins showing a decrease of more than 20 percent when new development had 85 percent impervious area. The groundwater-flow model and particle tracking were used to determine areas that contribute recharge to the five production wells available for use in the Pootatuck River Basin. These areas included narrow portions of the aquifer that extended beyond the immediate upgradient areas, probably because of deeper groundwater-flow paths.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Comparison of constitutive flow resistance equations based on the Manning and Chezy equations applied to natural rivers

A set of conceptually derived in‐bank river discharge–estimating equations (models), based on the Manning and Chezy equations, are calibrated and validated using a database of 1037 discharge measurements in 103 rivers in the United States and New Zealand. The models are compared to a multiple regression model derived from the same data. The comparison demonstrates that in natural rivers, using an exponent on the slope variable of 0.33 rather than the traditional value of 0.5 reduces the variance associated with estimating flow resistance. Mean model uncertainty, assuming a constant value for the conductance coefficient, is less than 5% for a large number of estimates, and 67% of the estimates would be accurate within 50%. The models have potential application where site‐specific flow resistance information is not available and can be the basis for (1) a general approach to estimating discharge from remotely sensed hydraulic data, (2) comparison to slope‐area discharge estimates, and (3) large‐scale river modeling.

Water Resources Research↗