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David A. Haukos

Publications and source records attributed to David A. Haukos.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Simple bagged movement models for telemetry data

Determining which statistical methods are appropriate for data is both user and data dependent and prone to change as new methodology becomes available. This process encompasses model ideation, model selection, and determining appropriate use of statistical methods. Literature on models for animal movement emerging in the past two decades has yielded a rich collection of statistical methods garnering much deserved positive attention. Among such efforts, there is limited investigation of the broader place for simple machine learning methodology in animal movement modeling. We propose a bagged (i.e., bootstrap aggregated) animal movement model using simple, off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms. The model is intuitive, retains statistical inference about characteristics of animal movement (i.e., estimated from model-based summary statistics), and only requires knowledge of elementary statistical and machine learning analysis to understand. We show by simulation that our model can provide unbiased estimates of pertinent characteristics of animal movement (e.g., daily displacement) in the presence of large and realistic location error. We believe that increasing accessible literature on simple machine learning animal movement models provides valuable pedagogical and practical support for researchers using statistical models to study animal movement.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Estimation of contact time among animals from telemetry data

Continuous processes in most applications are measured discretely with error. This complicates the task of detecting intersections and the number of intersections between two continuous processes (i.e., when the processes have the same value). Intersections of continuous processes are scientifically important but challenging to estimate from data. For example, in the field of animal ecology, intersections of the paths of moving animals tracked with satellite technologies can be used to understand disease transmission. We illustrate how to quantify contact between animals using telemetry data (i.e., the recorded locations of an animal over time). We introduce our method to quantify contact time with accessible concepts from introductory stochastic process literature, such as Brownian motion. Then, we provide two data examples using white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) telemetry data in a region with high prevalence of chronic wasting disease. Our work provides a needed connection between existing model-based literature for animal movement and rule-based literature for animal interaction. Further, our work illustrates a unique statistical problem receiving minimal attention with broad applicability in human and livestock tracking.

The American Statistician↗
USGS2024

Discordance between taxonomy and population genomic data: An avian example relevant to the United States Endangered Species Act

Population genomics can reveal cryptic biological diversity that may impact fitness while simultaneously serving to delineate relevant conservation units. Here, we leverage the power of whole-genome resequencing for conservation by studying 433 individual lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ; LEPC, a federally endangered species of conservation concern in the United States) and greater prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ; GRPC, a legally huntable species throughout much of its range). The genomic diversity of two formally recognized distinct population segments (DPSs) of LEPCs is similar, but they are genetically distinct. Neither DPS is depleted of its genomic diversity, neither is especially inbred, and temporal diversity is relatively stable in both conservation units. Interspecific differentiation between the two species was only slightly higher than that observed between LEPC DPSs, due largely to bidirectional introgression. The high resolution provided by our dataset identified a genomic continuum between the two species such that individuals sampled from the hybrid zone were imperfectly assigned to their presumptive species when considering only their physical characteristics. The admixture between the two species is reflected in the spectrum of individual ancestry coefficients, which has legal implications for the “take” of individuals under the Endangered Species Act. Overall, our data highlight the recurring dissonance between static policies and dynamic species boundaries that are increasingly obvious in the population genomic era.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗
USGS2024

Treed Gaussian processes for animal movement modeling

Wildlife telemetry data may be used to answer a diverse range of questions relevant to wildlife ecology and management. One challenge to modeling telemetry data is that animal movement often varies greatly in pattern over time, and current continuous-time modeling approaches to handle such nonstationarity require bespoke and often complex models that may pose barriers to practitioner implementation. We demonstrate a novel application of treed Gaussian process (TGP) modeling, a Bayesian machine learning approach that automatically captures the nonstationarity and abrupt transitions present in animal movement. The machine learning formulation of TGPs enables modeling to be nearly automated, while their Bayesian formulation allows for the derivation of movement descriptors with associated uncertainty measures. We demonstrate the use of an existing R package to implement TGPs using the familiar Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We then use estimated movement trajectories to derive movement descriptors that can be compared across individuals and populations. We applied the TGP model to a case study of lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) to demonstrate the benefits of TGP modeling and compared distance traveled and residence times across lesser prairie-chicken individuals and populations. For broad usability, we outline all steps necessary for practitioners to specify relevant movement descriptors (e.g., turn angles, speed, contact points) and apply TGP modeling and trajectory comparison to their own telemetry datasets. Combining the predictive power of machine learning and the statistical inference of Bayesian methods to model movement trajectories allows for the estimation of statistically comparable movement descriptors from telemetry studies. Our use of an accessible R package allows practitioners to model trajectories and estimate movement descriptors, facilitating the use of telemetry data to answer applied management questions.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Broad-scale changes in lesser prairie-chicken habitat

Lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) populations of in the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado, USA, have declined sharply since the mid-1980s. Decreased quality and availability of habitat are believed to be the main drivers of declines. Our objective was to reconstruct broad-scale change in the ecoregion since 1985 as a potential factor in population declines. We assessed temporal change from 1985–2015 in landcover types and calculated landscape metrics using Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection imagery layers. We also documented presence of anthropogenic structures including oil wells and electrical transmission lines. Landcover type composition changed little since 1990 across the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion. However, anthropogenic structures (i.e., oil/gas wells, cell towers, wind farms, and transmission lines) notably increased, potentially causing functional habitat loss at a broad scale. Increased anthropogenic structures may have decreased habitat availability as well as the quality of existing habitat for lesser prairie-chickens, possibly contributing to recent population declines throughout the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2024

Melded integrated population models

Integrated population models provide a framework for assimilating multiple datasets to understand population dynamics. Understanding drivers of demography is key to improving wildlife management, and integrated population models have informed conservation practices for many species of conservation concern. Motivated by multiple surveys of lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), we developed a flexible integrated population modeling framework for assimilating demographic data with multiple surveys of abundance. Measurements of abundance are derived from aerial and ground surveys that vary in their observational uncertainty, sampling design, temporal coverage, and survey effort. Our proposed integrated population model draws from the strengths of each survey and prevents their sampling biases from compromising inference. We facilitate posterior inference for our integrated population model using chained Markov melding, which induces the joint distribution for all data sources by linking inference across several submodels. Using Markov melding, we extend the modeling framework previously proposed for analyzing the individual data sources while still obtaining joint Bayesian inference. We fit the melded model with a multistage Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that decreases run time and improves mixing. We assimilate data from several state and federal wildlife agencies and over a dozen independent researchers to infer lesser prairie-chicken abundance and vital rates across its entire range over the last 18 years. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2024

Lesser prairie-chicken dispersal after translocation: Implications for restoration and population connectivity

Conservation translocations are frequently inhibited by extensive dispersal after release, which can expose animals to dispersal-related mortality or Allee effects due to a lack of nearby conspecifics. However, translocation-induced dispersals also provide opportunities to study how animals move across a novel landscape, and how their movements are influenced by landscape configuration and anthropogenic features. Translocation among populations is considered a potential conservation strategy for lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ). We determined the influence of release area on dispersal frequency by translocated lesser prairie-chickens and measured how lesser prairie-chickens move through grassland landscapes through avoidance of anthropogenic features during their dispersal movements. We translocated 411 lesser prairie-chickens from northwest Kansas to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in 2016–2019. We used satellite GPS transmitters to track 115 lesser prairie-chickens throughout their post-release dispersal movements. We found that almost all lesser prairie-chickens that survived from their spring release date until June undergo post-translocation dispersal, and there was little variation in dispersal frequency by release area (96% of all tracked birds, 100% in Baca County, Colorado, 94% in Morton County, Kansas, n = 55). Dispersal movements (male: 103 ± 73 km, female: 175 ± 108 km, n = 62) led to diffusion across landscapes, with 69% of birds settling >5 km from their release site. During dispersal movements, translocated lesser prairie-chickens usually travel by a single 3.75 ± 4.95 km dispersal flight per day, selecting for steps that end far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. Due to this “stepping stone” method of transit, landscape connectivity is optimized when <5 km separates grassland patches on the landscape. Future persistence of lesser prairie-chicken populations can be aided through conservation of habitat and strategic placement of CRP to maximize habitat connectivity. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to objectives for regional, rather than site-specific, population augmentation for this species.

Colorado, Kansas↗
USGS2024

Recovery of working grasslands following a megafire in the southern mixed-grass prairie

While fire is a necessary ecological driver for grassland systems, Great Plains grasslands have undergone extensive land use change following European settlement (conversion, fragmentation, fire suppression, intensive grazing, etc.). Recent studies have documented the benefits of re-introducing fire to grasslands, but work has largely focused on small-scale, low-intensity fire, often at a pasture scale (i.e., prescribed fire). Over the last 30–40 years, the size and frequency of wildfires in the Great Plains has increased due to long-term fire suppression, woody encroachment, and climate change, resulting in megafires (wildfire >40,000 ha). While there is a wealth of information regarding effects of prescribed fire on Great Plains grasslands, knowledge of how large megafire events affect modern, fragmented working grasslands (i.e., grazed grasslands) is lacking and needed in the face of increasing megafire activity. To assess grassland response and recovery following a 2017 megafire (~254,000 ha), we compared vegetation characteristics pre- (2014–2015) and post-fire (2018–2019) in the mixed-grass prairie of Kansas, USA. We examined linkages between vegetation characteristics and a metric of burn severity (differenced normalized burn ratio [dNBR]) and evaluated megafire effects on limiting reproductive habitat for a declining grassland species, the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ). One-year post-fire, we documented increased bare ground (+59%) and decreased visual obstruction (−39%), litter depth (−31%), and forb cover (−35%). Decreased visual obstruction and increased bare ground led to an 81% decrease of lesser prairie-chicken nest habitat in the first-year post-fire, but grassland structure, functional group cover, and available nest habitat largely recovered 2.5 years post-fire. Recovery to pre-fire conditions 2.5 years post-fire was primarily due to elevated growing season precipitation received in the years following the fire (>700 mm/year). Percent cover of grass (β = 0.38) and bare ground (β = −0.36) exhibited the strongest relationships with burn severity pre-fire, but overall grassland structure and functional group cover were not strongly influenced dNBR burn severity post-fire. While our results suggested that recovering grasslands were more homogenous due to the large size of megafire, working grasslands in the mixed-grass prairie appeared largely resilient to the effects of megafire.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2023

Assessment of lesser prairie-chicken translocation through survival and lek surveys

Translocation is a management tool used to restore or augment wildlife populations, but outcomes of translocations are often poorly documented and can have varying levels of success for improving wildlife population declines. The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is a prairie grouse endemic to the southern Great Plains. In response to declining abundance and distribution, in 2023 lesser prairie-chickens were listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act in different states. Translocation is a potential management response to population declines when there is an availability of unoccupied habitats, but translocation efficacy has not been evaluated for lesser prairie-chickens. We translocated 411 lesser prairie-chickens seasonally from 2016-2019 and monitored the translocated lesser prairie-chicken population from 2017–2022. To assess translocation as a management tool for lesser prairie-chickens, we estimated survival for 2017–2020 and conducted lek surveys during 2017–2022. Over a fifth (22.8%, n = 94) of translocated birds either died or went missing within the first 2 weeks following release. Survival rates of translocated birds during the breeding (0.44 ± 0.02 [SE]) and nonbreeding (0.55 ± 0.03 [SE]) seasons were relatively low compared to nontranslocated lesser prairie-chickens in other studies (0.63–0.93 for breeding season; 0.43–0.87 for non-breeding season). Twenty-seven percent of translocated birds survived to the breeding season after release (i.e., >1 year). Translocated lesser prairie-chickens initiated 28 lekking sites over the study period. We estimated 77% of males available >2 weeks post release participated in lekking activity. The number of leks and male high counts on leks in the study area increased after translocation, peaking one year post-translocation (an overall increase of 250% and 340%, respectively). However, both the number of leks and male high counts decreased (48% and 39%, respectively) within 3 years after translocation cessation. Establishment of leks and increasing lek attendance directly following translocation initially suggested that translocation could be a viable management tool. However, survival rates after translocation and declining lek counts following translocation indicates that the increased population abundance and occupied range from this translocation effort may be unsustainable. Our results highlight the necessity of monitoring to determine outcomes of a large lesser prairie-chicken translocation. Other management strategies, such as targeted grassland restoration and management in areas of greatest lesser prairie-chicken density, could be more beneficial for conservation of lesser prairie-chicken populations.

Colorado, Kansas↗
USGS2023

Lesser Prairie-chicken incubation behavior and nest success most influenced by nest vegetation structure

Incubation breaks are necessary for any nesting bird but can increase the mortality risk of the nest or attending parent. How intrinsic and extrinsic variables affect nest attentiveness—the proportion of time a female is on nest during incubation— and subsequent survival of the nest remains unclear for uniparental species. We related female nest attentiveness to nest survival and tested the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic variables on nest attentiveness by female Lesser Prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) using GPS locations of 87 females at 109 nest sites in 3 study areas in Kansas during 2013–2015. Daily nest survival increased by 39% when nest attentiveness increased from 21% to 98%. Female Lesser Prairie-chickens were 18% less attentive as body mass increased from 600 to 920 g. Daily precipitation and temperature, controlled for days into the incubation period, had interactive effects on nest attentiveness with nest attentiveness lowest on cool, wet days and increasing as temperature increased, regardless of precipitation (41% attentiveness at 16°C and 79 mm of precipitation to 90% attentiveness at 37°C and 41 mm of precipitation). Nest attentiveness increased by 11% as the quantity of grass at the nest site increased from 5% to 78% when visual obstruction was at 1 and 2 decimeters (dm) and increased 9% as the quantity of grass at the nest site increased from 5% to 83% when visual obstruction was at its maximum (3 dm). Our findings reveal the critical importance of nest attentiveness and incubation behavior, not only in relation to demography, but within the context of changing environmental conditions. As warmer temperatures and extreme precipitation events become more common and change the growth rates of vegetation, species like the Lesser Prairie-chicken that are ground-nesting, rely on vegetation cover, and exhibit uniparental care could experience negative demographic consequences.

Kansas↗
USGS2023

Waterfowl and wetland birds

The future of wetland bird habitat and populations is intrinsically connected with the conservation of rangelands in North America. Many rangeland watersheds are source drainage for some of the highest functioning extant wetlands. The Central and Pacific Flyways have significant overlap with available rangelands in western North America. Within these flyways, the importance of rangeland management has become increasingly recognized by those involved in wetland bird conservation. Within the array of wetland bird species, seasonal habitat needs are highly variable. During the breeding period, nest survival is one of the most important drivers of population growth for many wetland bird species and rangelands often provide quality nesting cover. Throughout spring and fall, rangeland wetlands provide key forage resources that support energetic demands needed for migration. In some areas, stock ponds developed for livestock water provide migration stopover and wintering habitat, especially in times of water scarcity. In the Intermountain West, drought combined with water demands from agriculture and human population growth are likely headed to an ecological tipping point for wetland birds and their habitat in the region. In the Prairie Pothole Region, conversion of rangeland and draining of wetlands for increased crop production remains a significant conservation issue for wetland birds and other wildlife. In landscapes dominated by agricultural production, rangelands provide some of the highest value ecosystem services, including water quality and wetland function. Recent research has shown livestock grazing, if managed properly, is compatible and at times beneficial to wetland bird habitat needs. Either directly, or indirectly, wetland bird populations and their habitat needs are supported by healthy rangelands. In the future, rangeland and wetland bird managers will benefit from increased collaboration to aid in meeting ultimate conservation objectives.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

A highly-contiguous and annotated genome assembly of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus).

The Lesser Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ; LEPC) is an iconic North American prairie grouse, renowned for ornate and spectacular breeding season displays. Unfortunately, the species has disappeared across much of its historical range, with corresponding precipitous declines in contemporary population abundance, largely due to climatic and anthropogenic factors. These declines led to a 2022 US Fish and Wildlife decision to identify and list two distinct population segments (DPSs; i.e., northern and southern DPSs) as threatened or endangered under the 1973 Endangered Species Act. Herein, we describe an annotated reference genome that was generated from a LEPC sample collected from the southern DPS. We chose a representative from the southern DPS because of the potential for introgression in the northern DPS, where some populations hybridize with the Greater Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ). This new LEPC reference assembly consists of 206 scaffolds, an N50 of 45 Mb, and 15,563 predicted protein-coding genes. We demonstrate the utility of this new genome assembly by estimating genome-wide heterozygosity in a representative LEPC and in related species. Heterozygosity in a LEPC sample was 0.0024, near the middle of the range (0.0003–0.0050) of related species. Overall, this new assembly provides a valuable resource that will enhance evolutionary and conservation genetic research in prairie grouse.

Genome Biology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Ring-necked Pheasant brood habitat selection and movements in an intensive agricultural landscape

Management of row crops can greatly influence wildlife populations in an agriculturally intensive landscape. Many upland gamebird populations, including Phasianus colchicus L. (Ringnecked Pheasant; hereafter pheasant) are experiencing contemporary population declines in such landscapes throughout the Midwest United States. Reduced availability of quality brood habitat may be a factor in these declines. Alternative practices, such as spring cover crops, may increase brood survival and benefit local pheasant populations. Our objectives were to follow radio-tagged females and assess pheasant brood 1) movements among available habitat patches within landscapes including spring cover crops and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) fields, 2) relative use of available cover types within a landscape, 3) selection of vegetation structure, vegetation composition, and invertebrate community structure by brood-rearing hens in landscapes dominated by row-crop agriculture, and 4) survival rates. Broods were found primarily in grassy areas (native grass, pasture, train track right-of-way, and grass strips) and spring cover crop fields even though cover crops were the least common cover type in all study areas. Brood movements were limited with broods staying near nest locations for 30 days after hatch. Though movements were small, broods were found in multiple cover types, averaging 2.8 out of 6 available cover types. There was no difference between used and random locations for invertebrate metrics including total counts, biomass, and richness; order-specific biomass; and order-specific counts. Visual obstruction and vegetation composition were similar between used and random locations. Across our study sites, we found little support for point-site selection (i.e., within-patch 4th order selection) but significant support for patch-site selection by female pheasants attending broods. Spring cover crops (<5%) and CRP (<15%) comprised a small percentage of the landscape area, but were selected by females attending broods as each contained approximately 25% of brood locations. Apparent survival of pheasant broods was low compared to other studies. Female pheasants selected for spring cover crops and CRP when attending broods, both are alternatives to current row-crop farming practices. As pheasants continue to respond to changes in western Kansas landscapes, homogeneity of cover types found in agricultural landscapes can be detrimental if practices continue to shift from quality pheasant habitat but can be advantageous if practices shift towards favorable management practices.

Kansas↗
USGS2022

Demographic effects of a megafire on a declining prairie grouse in the mixed-grass prairie

Recent studies have documented benefits of small, prescribed fire and wildfire for grassland-dependent wildlife, such as lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicintus ), but wildlife demographic response to the scale and intensity of megafire (wildfire >40,000 ha) in modern, fragmented grasslands remains unknown. Limited available grassland habitat makes it imperative to understand if increasing frequency of megafires could further reduce already declining lesser prairie-chicken populations, or if historical evolutionary interactions with fire make lesser prairie-chickens resilient. To evaluate lesser prairie-chicken demographic response to megafires, we compared lek counts, nest density, and survival rates of adults, nests, and chicks before (2014–2016) and after (2018–2020) a 2017 megafire in the mixed-grass prairie of Kansas, USA (Starbuck fire ~254,000 ha). There was a 67% decline in attending males on leks post-fire and a 57% decline in occupied leks post-fire. Despite population declines as indicated by lek counts, adult female breeding season survival ( Ŝ ) was similar pre- ( Ŝ = 0.65 ± 0.08 [SE]) and post-fire (0.61 ± 0.08), as was chick survival (pre-fire: 0.23 ± 0.07; post-fire: 0.27 ± 0.11). Nest survival appeared lower post-fire (pre-fire: 0.38 ± 0.06; post-fire: 0.20 ± 0.06), but did not differ at the 95% confidence interval. Nest density of marked females declined 73% in areas burned by megafire. Although lesser prairie-chickens persisted in the study area and we documented minimal effects on most demographic rates, reduced lesser prairie-chicken abundance and reproductive output suggests full recovery may take >3 years. Increased propensity for megafire resulting from suppression of smaller fires, compounded by climate change and woody encroachment, may impose a short-term (3–5 year) threat to already declining lesser prairie-chicken populations.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Availability of lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat impairs restoration success

Regional populations of lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) have been declining irregularly since the early 1900s (Jensen et al. 2000). Populations in the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion of Kansas and Colorado, USA, have been experiencing declines during the last 2 decades. Ecoregion-wide declines included the Cimarron and Comanche National Grasslands in southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado, respectively, from which lesser prairie-chickens were nearly extirpated by 2016. In 2014, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)–Forest Service created a vegetation management plan to restore lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat on the National Grasslands. We used management plan recommendations to evaluate available nesting habitat on National Grasslands and surrounding areas for 394 transmitter-marked lesser prairie-chickens translocated to the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion during 2016–2019. We found that a small proportion of vegetation measurements met the USDA–Forest Service's 100% visual obstruction guidelines of 25.4 to 38.1 cm (Cimarron: 5.3–21.8% of observations among cover types; Comanche: 1.5–3.0%), and grass species with a high value for nesting were rare (Cimarron: 0.5–20.1% of observations within each cover type; Comanche: 1.5–3.0%). Lesser prairie-chickens selected for 2 of the 10 National Grasslands' cover types (shrubland state and warm season shortgrass state) during breeding season movements, but only shrubland state was selected for during nesting. Our results indicate that nesting habitat for lesser prairie-chickens is limited on Cimarron and Comanche National Grasslands. As private grassland was also avoided during nesting, lesser prairie-chickens in Baca and Morton counties are currently primarily relying on Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands to meet nesting habitat thresholds (Morton, KS: 17.7% CRP; Baca, CO: 16.6% CRP), which may be insufficient to sustain a viable population. Due to the impermanence of CRP, efforts to sustain local populations are likely to depend on increased improved lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat on National Grasslands. Grazing strategies such as rest-rotation and year-long deferments may provide opportunities to restore lesser prairie-chicken habitat on sand sagebrush prairie.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2022

Trends of lesser prairie-chicken habitat extent and distribution on the Southern High Plains

The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) is a species of prairie grouse that occupies grassland ecosystems in the Southern and Central High Plains of the Great Plains. Reduced abundance and occupied ranges have led to increased conservation efforts throughout the species’ range. Habitat loss is considered the predominant cause of these declines. In the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico, lesser prairie-chicken habitat corresponds to the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie Ecoregion, which is comprised of a mixture of sand shinnery oak ( Quercus havardii) -dominated grasslands, sand sagebrush ( Artemisia filifolia )-dominated grasslands, and mixed grasslands. In sand shinnery oak–grassland communities, conversion to row-crop agriculture, continuous unmanaged livestock grazing, restriction of natural fire, invasive plant species (e.g., mesquite ( Prosopis spp. )), extensive use of herbicides, energy development, and a variety of other factors have also negatively affected ecosystem extent and function. We integrated historical maps and remote sensing-derived information to measure trends in the extent and geographical distribution of sand shinnery oak prairies in eastern New Mexico and northwest Texas. Potential lesser prairie-chicken habitat was reduced by 56% from a potential of 43,258 km 2 to 18,908 km 2 in ~115 years (since pre-settlement). Our assessment indicated both mixed grasslands and sand shinnery oak-dominated grasslands were transformed from large parcels of existing vegetation communities to urban settlements, row crops, roads, and industrial land uses by the 1970s. Currently, potential habitat is highly fragmented and restricted to isolated locations in Texas and New Mexico, with an increasing dominance in mixed grasslands, especially in the southeastern portion of the lesser prairie-chicken range. Sand shinnery oak-dominated grasslands have been declining rapidly, from 69% of its potential extent in 1985, 65% in 1995, 54% in 2005, to 42% in 2015. Mixed grasslands drastically declined to 50% of its potential distribution by 1985. Since then, it has been stable until the 2005–2015 period when it declined to 45% of its potential extent. Based on the 2015 assessment, the current potential habitat for lesser prairie chicken is estimated at 18,908 km 2 (1,890,800 ha or 4.6 million acres), where 13,126 km 2 corresponds to mixed grasslands and 5782 km 2 corresponds to sand shinnery oak-dominated grasslands.

New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2022

Changes in waterfowl migration phenologies in central North America: Implications for future waterfowl conservation

Globally, migration phenologies of numerous avian species have shifted over the past half-century. Despite North American waterfowl being well researched, published data on shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies remain scarce. Understanding shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies along with potential drivers is critical for guiding future conservation efforts. Therefore, we utilized historical (1955–2008) nonbreeding waterfowl survey data collected at 21 National Wildlife Refuges in the mid- to lower portion of the Central Flyway to summarize changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. We examined changes in the timing of peak abundance from survey data at monthly intervals for each refuge and species (or species group; n = 22) by year and site-specific temperature for spring (Jan–Mar) and autumn (Oct–Dec) migration periods. For spring ( n = 187) and autumn ( n = 194) data sets, 13% and 9% exhibited statistically significant changes in the timing of peak migration across years, respectively, while the corresponding numbers for increasing temperatures were 4% and 9%. During spring migration, ≥80% of significant changes in the timing of spring peak indicated advancements, while 67% of significant changes in autumn peak timing indicated delays both across years and with increasing temperatures. Four refuges showed a consistent pattern across species of advancing spring migration peaks over time. Advancements in spring peak across years became proportionally less common among species with increasing latitude, while delays in autumn peak with increasing temperature became proportionally more common. Our study represents the first comprehensive summary of changes in spring and autumn migration phenology for Central Flyway waterfowl and demonstrates significant phenological changes during the latter part of the twentieth century.

Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗