Geology topics

Daniel Slosky

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Slosky.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Critical ShakeCast lifeline users and their response protocols

ShakeCast is a US Geological Survey (USGS) software application that automatically retrieves ShakeMap shaking estimates and performs analyses using fragility functions for buildings and lifelines. The ShakeCast system aims to identify which facilities or lifeline segments are most likely impacted by an earthquake—and thus which ones should be prioritized for inspection and response—and sends notifications to responders in the minutes after an event. By focusing inspection efforts on the most damage-susceptible facilities in the severely shaken areas, ShakeCast can improve critical lifeline inspection prioritization and reduce response time in the aftermath of a significant earthquake. Overviews and technical specifications of the ShakeCast system and software have been presented at earlier conferences; here we discuss ShakeCast users and their response protocols to provide further insight into the use of the ShakeCast system. We focus on case histories of ShakeCast users who are responsible for monitoring and response for critical infrastructure. We emphasize the inventory, fragility, and notification issues pertinent to these users, their efforts in developing protocols for post-earthquake inspections, and response.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

The US Geological Survey ground failure product: Near-real-time estimates of earthquake-triggered landslides and liquefaction

Since late 2018, the US Geological Survey (USGS) ground failure (GF) earthquake product has provided publicly available spatial estimates of earthquake-triggered landslide and liquefaction hazards, along with the qualitative hazard and population exposure-based alerts for M > 6 earthquakes worldwide and in near real time (within ∼30 min). Earthquake losses are oftentimes greatly aggravated by the impacts due to ground failure, yet those particular events with dramatic additional losses have not, heretofore, been rapidly identifiable. The GF product now provides situational awareness about the potential extent and severity of ground failure in the crucial time period before direct observations are available. We describe our implementation of the GF product and the lessons learned from the earthquakes that have occurred since the GF product was released. We describe the product design process, the underlying GF models, the methods we have developed for modeling uncertainty, and the development of the alert levels. The GF product has been produced in near real time for 320 events over the 2-year period since its public implementation in late 2018 through early 2021. The majority of these events yielded the lowest level (green) alerts for all ground-failure types, with 25 resulting in elevated hazard or exposure to landslides and 47 for liquefaction. In a qualitative comparison between the GF product alerts and GF occurrence information, we found that the product succeeds at assigning appropriate alert levels in the majority of cases. Based on our experience with the product, we have identified the following priorities for future improvements: (1) refinements of the underlying probabilistic models to incorporate severity and explicitly model the type of landslide/liquefaction; (2) development of models for fatalities and economic losses due to ground failure; and (3) estimation of the impacts of ground failure on infrastructure.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2020

Earthquakes, ShakeCast

ShakeCast® – short for ShakeMap Broadcast – is a fully automated software system for delivering specific ShakeMap products to critical users and for triggering established post-earthquake response protocols. ShakeCast is a freely available, postearthquake situational awareness software application that automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap to compare ground shaking intensity measures against users’ facilities (Lin and Wald 2008). ShakeCast then generates potential damage assessment and inspection priority notifications, maps, and web-based products for critical users, emergency managers, and those on a need-to-know basis.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

An update of USGS bear-real-time earthquake shaking and impact products

We report on advancements in both hazard and consequence modeling that form the core of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) strategy to improve rapid earthquake shaking and loss estimates. Whereas our primary goal is to improve our operational capabilities of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, the science, software, and datasets behind these systems continue to advance uses and studies of earthquake shaking and impact by the seismological, engineering, financial, and risk modeling communities. Several important updates to our integrated shaking and impact products are outlined and we introduce new earthquake information products that have recently been brought online, including rapid ground failure estimates and more spatially refined loss estimates domestically (in the U.S). We continue to compile, develop, and refine key openly available models and datasets that contribute to calibrating these systems and report on the collection and storage of new inventories. We also describe some of the basic operational considerations in the current generation of these shaking and loss-estimation systems. A key aspect of the product integration and development is leveraging earthquake-hazard and loss-modeling science done internally (within the USGS) and by external researchers and collaborators. Lastly, we outline new opportunities for further research and development by emphasizing scientific, data, and application gaps and challenges that must be solved in order to improve our shaking and impact information tools.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2018

State transportation agencies partner to deploy and enhance ShakeCast

The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) is organizing and leading a three-year Transportation Pooled Fund (TPF) project, Connecting the Dots: Implementing ShakeCast Across Multiple State Departments of Transportation for Rapid Post-Earthquake Response. Ten state Departments of Transportation (DOT)—CA, ID, MO, MS, OK, OR, SC, TX, UT, AND WA—have partnered and combined research funds to pursue implementation and advancement of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) ShakeCast system. ShakeCast is a software application that automatically retrieves ShakeMap shaking estimates and performs analyses using fragility functions for bridges, buildings, and other structures. The ShakeCast system identifies which facilities are most likely impacted by an earthquake and sends notifications to responders in the minutes after an earthquake. By focusing inspection efforts on the most damage-susceptible facilities in the severely shaken areas, ShakeCast can reduce response time and priorities for bridge inspections in the aftermath of a significant earthquake. The goal of the TPF project is to establish or enhance operational ShakeCast instances for all the partner DOTs, while advancing transportation-focused aspects of the software platform. DOTs are uniquely able to take advantage of the ShakeCast technology in that bridge fragilities can be readily derived from the National Bridge Inventory (NBI). DOTs also share the need for prioritized response strategies given their very large numbers of facilities—over wide areas—that have varying vulnerabilities, many of which could potentially be affected by earthquake shaking. The ten-state TPF project will also explore opportunities for DOT-specific ShakeCast software modifications, for example, for enhanced neighboring-state situational awareness and response coordination as well as for long-term maintenance and operations of their ShakeCast systems.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Development and utilization of USGS ShakeCast for rapid post-earthquake assessment of critical facilities and infrastructure

The ShakeCast system is an openly available, near real-time post-earthquake information management system. ShakeCast is widely used by public and private emergency planners and responders, lifeline utility operators and transportation engineers to automatically receive and process ShakeMap products for situational awareness, inspection priority, or damage assessment of their own infrastructure or building portfolios. The success of ShakeCast to date and its broad, critical-user base mandates improved software usability and functionality, including improved engineering-based damage and loss functions. In order to make the software more accessible to novice users—while still utilizing advanced users’ technical and engineering background—we have developed a “ShakeCast Workbook”, a well documented, Excel spreadsheet-based user interface that allows users to input notification and inventory data and export XML files requisite for operating the ShakeCast system. Users will be able to select structure based on a minimum set of user-specified facility (building location, size, height, use, construction age, etc.). “Expert” users will be able to import user-modified structural response properties into facility inventory associated with the HAZUS Advanced Engineering Building Modules (AEBM). The goal of the ShakeCast system is to provide simplified real-time potential impact and inspection metrics (i.e., green, yellow, orange and red priority ratings) to allow users to institute customized earthquake response protocols. Previously, fragilities were approximated using individual ShakeMap intensity measures (IMs, specifically PGA and 0.3 and 1s spectral accelerations) for each facility but we are now performing capacity-spectrum damage state calculations using a more robust characterization of spectral deamnd.We are also developing methods for the direct import of ShakeMap’s multi-period spectra in lieu of the assumed three-domain design spectrum (at 0.3s for constant acceleration; 1s or 3s for constant velocity and constant displacement at very long response periods). As part of ongoing ShakeCast research and development, we will also explore the use of ShakeMap IM uncertainty estimates and evaluate the assumption of employing multiple response spectral damping values rather than the single 5%-damped value currently employed. Developing and incorporating advanced fragility assignments into the ShakeCast Workbook requires related software modifications and database improvements; these enhancements are part of an extensive rewrite of the ShakeCast application.

Conference Paper↗