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Geology topics

Daniel H. Monson

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel H. Monson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Abundance and distribution of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in the southcentral Alaska stock, 2014, 2017, and 2019

The Southcentral Alaska (SCAK) sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) stock is the northernmost stock of sea otters, a keystone predator known for structuring nearshore marine ecosystems. We conducted aerial surveys within the range of the SCAK sea otter stock to provide recent estimates of sea otter abundance and distribution. We defined three survey regions: (1) Eastern Cook Inlet (2017), (2) Outer Kenai Peninsula (2019), and (3) Prince William Sound (2014 and 2017). Combined, the three regional estimates yielded an overall abundance estimate of 21,617 sea otters (standard error [SE] = 2,190) with an average density of 1.96 sea otters per square kilometer (km 2 ; SE = 0.55). Sea otters were distributed unevenly across the survey regions and densities varied from 0.52 sea otters/km 2 (SE = 0.18) in the deep rock-walled glacial fjords along parts of the Outer Kenai Peninsula to nearly 20 sea otters/km 2 (SE = 6.70) in shallow soft-bottom communities such as those in Orca Inlet and Kachemak Bay. These survey results represent the best available contemporary information concerning the distribution, density, and abundance of sea otters across the range of the SCAK stock. Survey data files have been standardized and formatted in data releases associated with this report so that they can be queried and displayed with standard geographic information system and database management software. In addition to providing contemporary information on sea otter populations, this report details how an observer-based aerial survey method has been applied in Alaska over 2 decades.

Alaska

Evaluating the status of individuals and populations: Advantages of multiple approaches and time scales

The assessment of population status is a central goal of applied wildlife research and essential to the field of wildlife conservation. “Population status” has a number of definitions, the most widely used having to do with the current trajectory of the population (i.e., growing, stable, or declining), or the probability of persistence (i.e., extinction risk), perhaps without any specific knowledge as to the factors driving a population’s dynamics. In contrast, a population’s status relative to the carrying capacity of the environment ( K ) is an ecologically-based definition that explicitly provides information about a major mechanism of population control. That is, it relates to the relative per capita availability of resources to individuals in a population, which can also be used to infer the state of the environment itself. Sea otters in the North Pacific provide an excellent system with which to examine various approaches to assessing population status relative to K . This is because sea otters were nearly extirpated by historic commercial overexploitation in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, followed by natural and translocation-aided population recovery during the twentieth century, and this decline and recovery has been relatively well documented. This provided a unique opportunity to study populations at the extremes of the population status spectrum. Here we describe and review the approaches that have been utilized in sea otter research to understand the status of populations relative to resource abundance. Specifically, we will illustrate the utility of various indices of population status for understanding population dynamics using the case study of a second precipitous sea otter decline in the Western Aleutians. The indices or “tools” described here fit into several broad categories including (1) energetic, (2) morphological, and (3) demographic as well as a fourth category of emerging tools that have not yet been employed in many other situations including dietary diversity, community structure, spatial distribution, and gene expression. Overall, a variety of indices used to measure population status throughout the sea otter’s range have provided insights for understanding the mechanisms driving the trajectory of various sea otter populations, which a single index could not, and we suggest using multiple methods to measure a population’s status at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The work described here also illustrates the usefulness of long-term data sets and/or approaches that can be used to assess population status retrospectively, providing information otherwise not available. While not all systems will be as amenable to using all the approaches presented here, we expect innovative researchers could adapt analogous multi-scale methods to a broad range of habitats and species including apex predators occupying the top trophic levels, which are often of conservation concern.

Book chapter

Pacific blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus) abundance in the Gulf of Alaska: Synthesis of Gulf Watch data (2006-2013) and a consideration of major recruitment events (1989-2013)

Pacific blue mussels ( Mytilus trossulus ) are abundant and wide-spread primary consumers in the intertidal zone throughout the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). As a component of the Gulf Watch Alaska monitoring program, they represent a key member of intertidal communities and an important prey resource to a number of nearshore vertebrate predators. Our goal is to understand variation in abundance of M. trossulus over large temporal and spatial scales and over a variety of habitats in the northern GOA to determine the bottom-up factors that influence recruitment and the top-down forces that control total biomass. This information is needed to predict consequences of variation due to incremental climate change, periodic regime shifts, and catastrophic change caused by oil spills or natural events such as severe winters.

Alaska

Temporal patterns in the foraging behavior of sea otters in Alaska

Activity time budgets in apex predators have been proposed as indicators of population status relative to resource limitation or carrying capacity. We used archival time-depth recorders implanted in 15 adult female and 4 male sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from the northernmost population of the species, Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, to examine temporal patterns in their foraging behavior. Sea otters that we sampled spent less time foraging during summer (females 8.8 hr/day, males 7.9 hr/day) than other seasons (females 10.1–10.5 hr/day, males 9.2–9.5 hr/day). Both sexes showed strong preferences for diurnal foraging and adjusted their foraging effort in response to the amount of available daylight. One exception to this diurnal foraging mode occurred after females gave birth. For approximately 3 weeks post-partum, females switched to nocturnal foraging, possibly in an effort to reduce the risk of predation by eagles on newborn pups. We used multilevel mixed regression models to assess the contribution of several biological and environmental covariates to variation in the daily foraging effort of parous females. In the random effects only model, 87% of the total variation in foraging effort was within-otter variation. The relatively small among-otter variance component (13%) indicates substantial consistency in the foraging effort of sea otters in this northern population. In the top 3 models, 17% of the within-otter variation was explained by reproductive stage, day length, wind speed, air temperature and a wind speed × air temperature interaction. This study demonstrates the potential importance of environmental and reproductive effects when using activity budgets to assess population status relative to carrying capacity.

Alaska

2013 update on sea otter studies to assess recovery from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

On March 24, 1989, the tanker vessel Exxon Valdez ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling an estimated 42 million liters of Prudhoe Bay crude oil. Oil spread in a southwesterly direction and was deposited on shores and waters in western Prince William Sound (WPWS). The sea otter (Enhydra lutris) was one of more than 20 nearshore species considered to have been injured by the spill. Since 1989, the U.S. Geological Survey has led a research program to evaluate effects of the spill on sea otters and assess progress toward recovery, as defined by demographic and biochemical indicators. Here, we provide an update on the status of sea otter populations in WPWS, presenting findings through 2013. To assess recovery based on demographic indicators, we used aerial surveys to estimate abundance and annual collections of sea otter carcasses to evaluate patterns in ages-at-death. To assess recovery based on biochemical indicators, we quantified transcription rates for a suite of genes selected as potential indicators of oil exposure in sea otters based on laboratory studies of a related species, the mink (Mustela vison). In our most recent assessment of sea otter recovery, which incorporated results from a subset of studies through 2009, we concluded that recovery of sea otters in WPWS was underway. This conclusion was based on increasing abundance throughout WPWS, including increasing numbers at northern Knight Island, an area that was heavily oiled in 1989 and where the local sea otter population had previously shown protracted injury and lack of recovery. However, we did not conclude that the WPWS sea otter population had fully recovered, due to indications of continuing reduced survival and exposure to lingering oil in sea otters at Knight Island, at least through 2009. Based on data available through 2013, we now conclude that the status of sea otters—at all spatial scales within WPWS—is consistent with the designation of recovery from the spill as defined by the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council. The support for this conclusion is based primarily on demographic data, including (1) a return to estimated pre-spill abundance of sea otters at northern Knight Island, and (2) a return to pre-spill mortality patterns. Gene transcription rates in 2012 were similar in sea otters from oiled, moderately oiled and unoiled areas, suggesting abatement of exposure effects in 2012. However, because 2012 gene transcription rates generally were low for sea otters from all areas relative to 2008, we cannot fully interpret these observations without data from a wider panel of genes. This slight uncertainty with respect to the data from the biochemical indicator is outweighed by the strength of the data for the demographic indicators. The return to pre-spill numbers and mortality patterns suggests a gradual dissipation of lingering oil over the past two decades, to the point where continuing exposure is no longer of biological significance to the WPWS sea otter population.

Alaska

Synthesis of nearshore recovery following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill: sea otter liver pathology and survival in Western Prince William Sound, 2001 – 2008

We examined livers and liver biopsies collected from captured sea otters in WPWS, 2001–2008, to determine whether indicators of liver health correlated with history of oil contamination from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Sea otters captured in oiled areas had a significantly higher proportion of livers with gross pathological change, based on visual inspection at the time of capture, than those from unoiled areas. Of the 10 histopathology variables scored on liver biopsies, only two (vacuolar change and pigment) differed between animals from oiled and unoiled areas, and neither correlated with gross pathology scores. Vacuolar change indicates physiological disturbance, which is consistent with potential effects from oil exposure but also could be influenced by a number of other factors. We concluded that, as of 2008, some differences in liver health were evident between sea otters from oiled and unoiled areas; these differences were consistent with, but not specific to, effects that might be expected with sublethal exposure to lingering Exxon Valdez oil. We also quantified variation in survival of radiomarked sea otters within oiled areas of WPWS in relation to age, sex, body condition, selected blood serum chemistry variables, and histological scores indicative of liver health. Of the variables considered, only the serum enzyme aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and the ratio of serum proteins albumin and globulin (A/G) were correlated with survival, with higher levels of AST and lower levels of A/G associated with increased likelihood of mortality. High AST and low A/G both may be indicative of liver disease. Taken together, results reported here suggest that liver health of sea otters in oiled areas was slightly poorer than those from unoiled areas and, ifurther, that this may have translated to poorer survival through 2008, nearly 2 decades after the spill. More recently collected information indicated that mortality patterns and abundance had returned to pre-spill conditions between 2010 and 2013, suggesting that the effects that we detected through 2008 may have represented the end of effects related to exposure to lingering oil.

Alaska

Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m 2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

PLoS ONE

Quantifying long-term risks to sea otters from the 1989 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill: reply to Harwell & Gentile (2013)

Recovery of sea otter populations in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, has been delayed for more than 2 decades following the 1989 ‘Exxon Valdez’ oil spill. Harwell & Gentile (2013; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 488:291–296) question our conclusions in Bodkin et al. (2012; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 447:273-287) regarding adverse effects that oil lingering in the environment may have on sea otters. They agree that exposure may continue, but disagree that it constitutes a significant risk to sea otters. In Bodkin et al. (2012), we suggested that subtle effects of chronic exposure were the most reasonable explanation for delayed recovery of the sea otter population in areas of western PWS, where shorelines were most heavily oiled. Here, we provide additional information on the ecology of sea otters that clarifies why the toxicological effects of oral ingestion of oil do not reflect all effects of chronic exposure. The full range of energetic, behavioral, and toxicological concerns must be considered to appraise how chronic exposure to residual oil may constrain recovery of sea otter populations.

Alaska

Long-term effects of the 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill: Sea otter foraging in the intertidal as a pathway of exposure to lingering oil

The protracted recovery of some bird and mammal populations in western Prince William Sound (WPWS), Alaska, and the persistence of spilled 'Exxon Valdez' oil in intertidal sediments, suggests a pathway of exposure to consumers that occupy nearshore habitats. To evaluate the hypothesis that sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) foraging allows access to lingering oil, we contrast spatial relations between foraging behavior and documented oil distribution. We recovered archival time-depth recorders implanted in 19 sea otters in WPWS, where lingering oil and delayed ecosystem recovery are well documented. Sea otter foraging dives ranged from +2.7 to -92 m below sea level (MLLW), with intertidal accounting for 5 to 38% of all foraging. On average, female sea otters made 16050 intertidal dives per year and 18% of these dives were at depths above the +0.80 m tidal elevation. Males made 4100 intertidal dives per year and 26% of intertidal foraging took place at depths above the +0.80 m tidal elevation. Estimated annual oil encounter rates ranged from 2 to 24 times yr -1 for females, and 2 to 4 times yr -1 for males. Exposure rates increased in spring when intertidal foraging doubled and females were with small pups. In summer 2008, we found sea otter foraging pits on 13.5 of 24.8 km of intertidal shoreline surveyed. Most pits (82%) were within 0.5 m of the zero tidal elevation and 15% were above 0.5 m, the level above which most (65%) lingering oil remains. In August 2008, we detected oil above background concentrations in 18 of 41 (44%) pits excavated by sea otters on beaches with prior evidence of oiling, with total PAH concentrations up to 56000 ng g−1 dry weight. Our estimates of intertidal foraging, the widespread presence of foraging pits in the intertidal, and the presence of oil in and near sea otter foraging pits documents a pathway of exposure from lingering intertidal oil to sea otters foraging in WPWS.

Alaska

Could residual oil from the Exxon Valdez spill create a long-term population "sink" for sea otters in Alaska?

Over 20 years ago, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spilled 42 million L of crude oil into the waters of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. At the time of the spill, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population inhabiting the spill area suffered substantial acute injuries and loss. Subsequent research has resulted in one of the best-studied species responses to an oil spill in history. However, the question remains: Is the spill still influencing the Prince William Sound sea otter population? Here we fit time-varying population models to data for the sea otter population of western Prince William Sound to quantify the duration and extent of mortality effects from the spill. We hypothesize that the patchy nature of residual oil left in the environment has created a source-sink population dynamic. We fit models using the age distributions of both living and dying animals and estimates of sea otter population size to predict the number of sea otters in the hypothesized sink population and the number lost to this sink due to chronic exposure to residual oil. Our results suggest that the sink population has remained at just over 900 individuals (95% CI: 606-960) between 1990 and 2009, during which time prime-age survival remained 2-6% below pre-spill levels. This reduced survival led to chronic losses of ???900 animals over the past two decades, which is similar in magnitude to the number of sea otter deaths documented in western Prince William Sound during the acute phase of the spill. However, the unaffected source population appears to be counterbalancing these losses, with the model indicating that the sea otter population increased from ???2150 individuals in 1990 to nearly 3000 in 2009. The most optimistic interpretation of our results suggests that mortality effects dissipated between 2005 and 2007. Our results suggest that residual oil can affect wildlife populations on time scales much longer than previously believed and that cumulative chronic effects can be as significant as acute effects. Further, source-sink population dynamics can explain the slow recovery observed in the spill-affected western Prince William Sound sea otter population and are consistent with available data. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications

Assessment of clinical pathology and pathogen exposure in sea otters (Enhydra lutris) bordering the threatened population in Alaska

Northern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris kenyoni ) abundance has decreased dramatically over portions of southwest Alaska, USA, since the mid-1980s, and this stock is currently listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. In contrast, adjacent populations in south central Alaska, USA, and Russia have been stable to increasing during the same period. Sea otters bordering the area classified in the recent decline were live-captured during 2004–2006 at Bering Island, Russia, and the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska, USA, to evaluate differences in general health and current exposure status to marine and terrestrial pathogens. Although body condition was lower in animals captured at Bering Island, Russia, than it was at Kodiak, USA, clinical pathology values did not reveal differences in general health between the two regions. Low prevalences of antibodies (>5%) were found in Kodiak, USA, and on Bering Island, Russia, to Toxoplasma gondii , Sarcocystis neurona , and Leptospira interrogans . Exposure to phocine herpesvirus-1 was found in both Kodiak, USA (15.2%), and Bering Island, Russia (2.3%). Antibodies to Brucella spp. were found in 28% of the otters tested on Bering Island, Russia, compared with only 2.7% of the samples from Kodiak, USA. Prevalence of exposure to Phocine distemper virus (PDV) was 41% in Kodiak, USA, but 0% on Bering Island, Russia. Archived sera from southwest and south-central Alaska dating back to 1989 were negative for PDV, indicating exposure occurred in sea otters in Kodiak, USA, in recent years. Because PDV can be highly pathogenic in naïve and susceptible marine mammal populations, tissues should be examined to explore the contribution of this virus to otter deaths. Our results reveal an increase in exposure to pathogens in sea otters in Kodiak, Alaska, USA, since the 1990s.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Activity budgets derived from time-depth recorders in a diving mammal

We describe a method to convert continuously collected time–depth data from archival time–depth recorders (TDRs) into activity budgets for a benthic-foraging marine mammal. We used data from 14 TDRs to estimate activity-specific time budgets in sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) residing near Cross Sound, southeast Alaska, USA. From the TDRs we constructed a continuous record of behavior for each individual over 39–46 days during summer of 1999. Behaviors were classified as foraging (diving to the bottom), other diving (traveling, grooming, interacting), and nondiving (assumed resting). The overall average activity budget (proportion of 24-hr/d) was 0.37 foraging (8.9 hr/d), 0.11 in other diving (2.6 hr/d), and 0.52 nondiving time (12.5 hr/d). We detected significant differences in activity budgets among individuals and between groups within our sample. Historically, the sea otter population in our study area had been expanding and sequentially reoccupying vacant habitat since their reintroduction to the area in the 1960s, and our study animals resided in 2 adjacent yet distinct locations. Males ( n = 5) and individuals residing in recently occupied habitat ( n = 4) spent 0.28–0.30 of their time foraging (6.7–7.2 hr/d), 0.17–0.18 of their time in other diving behaviors (4.1–4.3 hr/d), and 0.53–0.54 of their time resting (12.7–13.0 hr/d). In contrast, females ( n = 9) and individuals residing in longer occupied habitat ( n = 10) spent 0.40 of their time foraging (9.6 hr/d), 0.08–0.09 of their time in other diving behaviors (1.9–2.2 hr/d), and 0.51–0.52 of their time resting (12.2–12.5 hr/d). Consistent with these differences, sea otters residing in more recently occupied habitat captured more and larger clams ( Saxidomus spp., Protothaca spp., Macoma spp., Mya spp., Clinocardium spp.) and other prey, and intertidal clams were more abundant and larger in this area. We found that TDRs provided data useful for measuring activity time budgets and behavior patterns in a diving mammal over long and continuous time periods. Fortuitous contrasts in time budgets between areas where our study animals resided suggest that activity time budgets estimated from TDRs may be a sensitive indicator of population status, particularly in relation to prey availability.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Stress-related hormones and genetic diversity in sea otters (Enhydra lutris)

Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) once ranged throughout the coastal regions of the north Pacific, but were extirpated throughout their range during the fur trade of the 18th and 19th centuries, leaving only small, widely scattered, remnant populations. All extant sea otter populations are believed to have experienced a population bottleneck and thus have lost genetic variation. Populations that undergo severe population reduction and associated inbreeding may suffer from a general reduction in fitness termed inbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression may result in decreased testosterone levels in males, and reduced ability to respond to stressful stimuli associated with an increase in the stress-related adrenal glucocorticoid hormones, cortisol and corticosterone. We investigated correlations of testosterone, cortisol, and corticosterone with genetic diversity in sea otters from five populations. We found a significant negative correlation between genetic diversity and both mean population-level ( r 2 = 0.27, P < 0.001) and individual-level ( r 2 = 0.54, P < 0.001) corticosterone values, as well as a negative correlation between genetic diversity and cortisol at the individual level ( r 2 = 0.17, P = 0.04). No relationship was found between genetic diversity and testosterone ( P = 0.57). The strength of the correlations, especially with corticosterone, suggests potential negative consequences for overall population health, particularly for populations with the lowest genetic diversity.

Marine Mammal Science

Using stable isotopes to investigate individual diet specialization in California sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis)

Differences in diet composition among conspecifics (dietary specialization) have been documented across a broad range of taxonomic groups and habitats, and such variation at the individual level is increasingly recognized as an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. Accurate identification of individual dietary specialization, however, requires longitudinal dietary records that are labor-intensive and cost-prohibitive to obtain for many species. Here we explore the use of stable isotopes (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) as a promising technique for detecting and quantifying patterns of individual dietary specialization. Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) offer a unique opportunity for testing this approach because (1) they consume a wide variety of prey that span multiple trophic levels, habitats, and ecologically defined functional groups; and (2) individual diet specialization can be validated with existing observational data. We analyzed the isotopic composition of sea otter vibrissae ( n = 31) in order to characterize inter- and intra-individual variation in sea otter diets at Monterey Bay, California, USA. At the population level, sea otters showed substantial variation in both δ 13 C and δ 15 N values, occupying nearly all of the “isotopic space” created by the diversity of isotopic signatures of potential prey taxa. Most of the variation in sea otter vibrissae was accounted for by differences between individuals, with much less contributed by within-individual variation. A majority of sea otters (∼80%) showed relatively little temporal variability in isotopic composition, suggesting that the proportional composition of most individuals' diets is relatively constant over time; a few individuals (∼20%) exhibited a high degree of intra-vibrissa isotopic variability, suggesting seasonal shifts in diet composition. These results and our interpretation of them were supported by long-term observational data on the diets of radio-tagged sea otters from the same population ( n = 23). Our results demonstrate that stable isotopes can provide an efficient tool for measuring individual- and population-level dietary breadth and may be useful for studying populations where longitudinal data on individuals would otherwise be impossible to acquire. This will be critical for examining the causes and consequences of dietary variation within and among consumer populations, thereby improving our understanding of these important ecological and evolutionary processes at the community level.

Ecology

Enumeration of Pacific walrus carcasses on beaches of the Chukchi Sea in Alaska following a mortality event, September 2009

On September 14, 2009, we encountered substantial numbers of fresh walrus carcasses on the Alaskan shores of the Chukchi Sea near Icy Cape. We enumerated 131 carcasses using geo-referenced strip transect photography and visual counts of solitary carcasses. All appeared to be young animals based on review of aerial photographs and reference to 12 carcasses that we examined on the ground. The events that led to the death of these animals are unknown, but appear to be related to the loss of sea ice over the Chukchi Sea continental shelf. In years prior to this event, other investigators have linked walrus deaths at other Chukchi Sea coastal haulouts to trampling, exhaustion from prolonged exposure to open sea conditions, and separation of calves from their mothers.

Open-File Report

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Ecology

Experimental recovery of sea otter carcasses at Kodiak Island, Alaska, following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

ound, Alaska, spilling approximately 11 million barrels of crude oil. Oil was deposited on beaches nearly 700 km from the spill site (Galt and Payton 1990, Piatt et al. 1990), affecting thousands of hectares of sea otter (Enhydra lutris) habitat. Two of the principal limitations in determining the initial effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on sea otter populations were a lack of recent population data, and a lack of information on the proportion of the total number of sea otters killed by the spill that were actually recovered. ound, Alaska, spilling approximately 11 million barrels of crude oil. Oil was deposited on beaches nearly 700 km from the spill site (Galt and Payton 1990, Piatt et al. 1990), affecting thousands of hectares of sea otter (Enhydra lutris) habitat. Two of the principal limitations in determining the initial effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on sea otter populations were a lack of recent population data, and a lack of information on the proportion of the total number of sea otters killed by the spill that were actually recovered. On 24 March 1989, the T/V Exxon Valdez ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling approximately 11 million barrels of crude oil. Oil was deposited on beaches nearly 700 km from the spill site (Galt and Payton 1990, Piatt et al . 1990), affecting thousands of hectares of sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) habitat. Two of the principal limitations in determining the initial effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on sea otter populations were a lack of recent population data, and a lack of information on the proportion of the total number of sea otters killed by the spill that were actually recovered. In late April and early May oil spread to the Kodiak Archipelago. With the oil came wildlife rescue, beach cleanup, and other spill-response activities including searches for dead birds and mammals. We took this opportunity to assess experimentally the recovery of sea otter carcasses in the Kodiak Island area. Specifically, we were interested in the proportion of the total number of dead sea otters the recovered carcasses represented.

Alaska

Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves. 2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves. 3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s. 4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation. 5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered l x function) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations). 6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation.

Journal of Animal Ecology