Geology topics

Damon B. Lesmeister

Publications and source records attributed to Damon B. Lesmeister.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Listening for extinction: Range-wide occupancy highlights critical risks and priorities for northern spotted owls

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) continues to decline across its range, threatened by habitat disturbances and invasive barred owls ( Strix varia ). We conducted a range-wide spotted owl occupancy assessment using 2.1 million h of passive acoustic recordings from 4081 survey stations within 1027 randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons across six physiographic regions. Applying multistate occupancy models, we estimated probabilities of landscape use (by at least one northern spotted owl) and pair occupancy (occupied by both a male and a female), while accounting for imperfect and sex-biased detection probability. Detection probability of pairs was low in most regions, primarily due to undetected females, but increased with survey effort. If management decisions can only be made when there is a high probability of detecting both sexes when they are present, then longer surveys are one approach to support the decisions. Landscape use and pair occupancy were positively associated with old-growth forest structure and topographic diversity. We also found a pronounced latitudinal gradient in spotted owl landscape use rates with estimated mean landscape use of 0.17 (SE = 0.03) and 0.16 (SE = 0.02) in the two most northern regions, and 0.54 (SE = 0.04) and 0.52 (SE = 0.05) in the two most southern regions. Pair occupancy rates were higher in southern regions (0.29, SE = 0.03, 0.43, SE = 0.05) and very low in northern regions (0.04, SE = 0.01, 0.03, SE = 0.01). In contrast to spotted owls, barred owls were detected in 90% of northern hexagons and 50% of southern hexagons, and barred owl calling intensity was over eight times higher than spotted owls. These results highlight extinction risks in several regions and suggest that management actions, such as spatially targeted barred owl control and protection of structurally complex habitats, have a narrow temporal window in which they can be effective in lowering the probability of regional extirpations. We generated predictive maps of landscape use and pair occupancy, which could help guide regional conservation strategies. This study demonstrates how passive acoustic monitoring and machine learning can be used for broad-scale ecological monitoring, identifying extinction risk thresholds, supporting adaptive management, and improving conservation outcomes for wide-ranging and elusive species that can reliably be detected through unique vocalizations.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Fostering landscape resilience and species conservation in frequent fire landscapes

Restoration of dry forest landscapes of the Pacific Northwest often involves the removal of some closed-canopy forest that has expanded due to fire exclusion, but this can conflict with species conservation when species require closed-canopy forest as part of their habitat. Fire refugia—areas within fire perimeters that burn less severely or frequently—might provide a solution to this conflict. We used a species-specific approach to understanding fire refugia for northern spotted owls to model the post-fire persistence of nesting and roosting (NR) forest in the frequent fire landscapes of the eastern Washington Cascades and the Klamath province and parts of the southern Cascades. Persistent NR forest occurred in topographically sheltered locations and lower slope positions whereas less persistent NR forest occurred in topographically exposed locations. These patterns of persistence reflect historical vegetation patterns when complex interactions among topography, vegetation and weather maintained resilient landscapes. These vegetation patterns may also resemble higher quality heterogenous habitat for spotted owls. Our models can help managers achieve the dual objectives of maintaining viable populations of native species, including those that rely on closed-canopy forests, while also restoring resilient landscapes. In an era of rapid ecological change, we suggest that northern spotted owl conservation and fire-adapted landscape restoration are not opposing goals. By identifying the biophysical settings that promote persistent NR forest and acknowledging the role of heterogeneous landscapes for maintaining resilient ecosystems and high quality spotted owl habitat, the dual objectives of supporting long-term resilience for native species and ecosystems can be achieved.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Passive acoustic monitoring is a cost-effective approach to conduct inland surveys for marbled murrelets

The marbled murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) is a seabird of conservation concern that nests in late-successional, old-growth forests in Oregon, Washington, and California, USA. Traditional audio-visual surveys have been the standard method for detecting murrelets in forests. Given that murrelets can be extremely cryptic in forest environments, audio-visual surveys are difficult, time consuming, and expensive to conduct. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) may be a useful and cost-effective alternative. Using a paired murrelet survey design, we compared detection probabilities across 88 survey points in forests of Oregon and Washington. We conducted 2–4 early morning audio-visual surveys and 13–53-day PAM surveys from 14 June through 5 August 2022 and 2023, when murrelets typically make the most frequent inland flights during the nesting season. We found the average detection probability for murrelets on any given day was higher for an audio-visual survey visit (0.40, SD = 0.17) than for a PAM survey day (0.19, SD = 0.10). However, the cumulative detection probability for PAM surveys was 0.98 (95% CI = 0.96–1.0) after 19 survey days, whereas the same cumulative detection probability would require 9 audio-visual survey visits. Using simulations to compare the cost-effectiveness of both methods, we found audio-visual surveys cost more when compared with PAM surveys in 61–91% of scenarios because they require specialized personnel training and additional pre-dawn visits. Further, PAM per survey costs decreased as the number of survey days per point increased and over time after initial costs were incurred, particularly when autonomous recording units were reused for multiple years. While audio-visual surveys are the standard method for murrelet surveys in forest habitats, PAM represents a more cost-effective approach to determine the presence of murrelets.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Simulated soundscapes and transfer learning boost the performance of acoustic classifiers under data scarcity

1. The biodiversity crisis necessitates spatially extensive methods to monitor multiple taxonomic groups for evidence of change in response to evolving environmental conditions. Programs that combine passive acoustic monitoring and machine learning are increasingly used to meet this need. These methods require large, annotated datasets, which are time-consuming and expensive to produce, creating potential barriers to adoption in data- and funding-poor regions. Recently released pre-trained avian acoustic classification models provide opportunities to reduce the need for manual labelling and accelerate the development of new acoustic classification algorithms through transfer learning. Transfer learning is a strategy for developing algorithms under data scarcity that uses pre-trained models from related tasks to adapt to new tasks. 2. Our primary objective was to develop a transfer learning strategy using the feature embeddings of a pre-trained avian classification model to train custom acoustic classification models in data-scarce contexts. We used three annotated avian acoustic datasets to test whether transfer learning and soundscape simulation-based data augmentation could substantially reduce the annotated training data necessary to develop performant custom acoustic classifiers. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis for hyperparameter choice and model architecture. We then assessed the generalizability of our strategy to increasingly novel non-avian classification tasks. 3. With as few as two training examples per class, our soundscape simulation data augmentation approach consistently yielded new classifiers with improved performance relative to the pre-trained classification model and transfer learning classifiers trained with other augmentation approaches. Performance increases were evident for three avian test datasets, including single-class and multi-label contexts. We observed that the relative performance among our data augmentation approaches varied for the avian datasets and nearly converged for one dataset when we included more training examples. 4. We demonstrate an efficient approach to developing new acoustic classifiers leveraging open-source sound repositories and pre-trained networks to reduce manual labelling. With very few examples, our soundscape simulation approach to data augmentation yielded classifiers with performance equivalent to those trained with many more examples, showing it is possible to reduce manual label-ling while still achieving high-performance classifiers and, in turn, expanding the potential for passive acoustic monitoring to address rising biodiversity monitoring needs.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty-five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard-mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine-scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2024

Passive acoustic monitoring and convolutional neural networks facilitate high-resolution and broadscale monitoring of a threatened species

Population monitoring is an essential component of biodiversity conservation and management, but low detection probabilities for rare and/or cryptic species makes estimating abundance and occupancy challenging. Passive acoustic monitoring combined with machine learning algorithms represents a potential path forward to effectively and efficiently monitor the occurrence of rare vocalizing species across entire forest landscapes. Our objectives were to develop and implement a convolutional neural network (PNW-Cnet) to identify vocalizations of a rare and threatened forest nesting bird species – the marbled murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) – in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A., 2018–2021. We used PNW-Cnet predictions from broadscale passive acoustic monitoring data to examine spatiotemporal patterns in the distribution of murrelets. PNW-Cnet showed sufficiently high prediction accuracy (overall precision > 0.9) to enable broadscale population monitoring. Spatiotemporal analysis showed that annual peak murrelet call abundance occurs in ordinal weeks 28–32 (late July–Mid August) but this varied by study area. The greatest number of detections typically occurred in the Olympic Peninsula and Oregon Coast Range where late-successional forest dominates and nearer to ocean habitats. We demonstrate that passive acoustic monitoring can be used to understand intensity of use across broad scales for a rare and cryptic species in addition to the typical detection/non-detection data that are often collected. Passive acoustic monitoring combined with PNW-Cnet offers considerable promise for species distribution modeling and long-term population monitoring for rare species.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Estimating northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) pair detection probabilities based on call-back surveys associated with long-term mark-recapture studies, 1993–2018

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ; hereinafter NSO) was listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 and population declines have continued since that listing. Given the species’ protected status, any proposed activities on Federal lands that might impact NSO require consultation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and part of that consultation often includes surveys to determine presence and occupancy status of the species in the proposed activity area. The objective of this report is to present study-area specific estimates of the probability of detection for NSO pairs from twelve 2-week seasonal survey periods using data from a recent range-wide meta-analysis. These estimates were a by-product of pair occupancy modeling but might provide insight into potential changes in the effect of the invasive barred owl on NSO detection rates. We used two-species multi-season occupancy models to estimate the probability of detection for NSOs on each of 11 study areas for each 2-week survey period and relative to the range-wide effect of barred owl presence or absence. Detection probabilities within the season generally increased from the earliest surveys in March through mid-season, decreasing again in the late season on five study areas. For three other study areas, detection rates were highest during the earliest survey periods in late March or early April. Estimates of cumulative seasonal detection of NSO (across a maximum of six within-season surveys) were less than 0.90 when barred owls (BO) were present on all but one study area, regardless of when surveys were conducted within a season. However, despite low detection rates, the probability that a territory was occupied when an NSO pair was not detected over six within-season surveys was also very low. When BO are not present on a territory, a six-survey protocol had a high probability of detecting an NSO pair at least once during the season on all study areas, except for the very lowest per-survey estimates. Conducting most surveys earlier in the season, when the probability of detecting pairs is highest (through May on most areas) could improve seasonal detection rates. However, alternative methods of population monitoring—such as the use of passive acoustic recorders—may be needed to continue monitoring NSO for research and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Long-term monitoring in transition: Resolving spatial mismatch and integrating multistate occupancy data

The success of long-term wildlife monitoring programs can be influenced by many factors and study designs often represent compromises between spatial scales and costs. Adaptive monitoring programs can iteratively manage this tension by adopting new cost-efficient technologies, which can provide projects the opportunity to reallocate costs to address new hypotheses, adapt to changing ecological conditions, or adjust sampling scale or resolution. If there is interest in longer time series of monitoring data, methodological transitions may necessitate integrated models to link newer data with historical data. However, data integration can be difficult if spatial or temporal scales are mismatched. Here, we develop an integrated multistate site-occupancy model and resolve sample unit spatial mismatch to link datasets from two northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) monitoring schemes that broadly overlapped during a methodological transition. The first dataset was obtained from a decades-long spotted owl monitoring program using call-playback and mark-resight surveys on historical territories of varying size and shape. This monitoring program has recently transitioned to passive acoustic monitoring of randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons over larger spatial extents. Both monitoring datasets overlapped with areas in which barred owl ( Strix varia ), an invasive competitor that has played an important role in northern spotted owl declines, were being removed experimentally. Reconciling spatial mismatch substantially increased the representation of the call-playback dataset and integrating the two datasets increased precision of spotted owl use and paired occupancy estimates relative to single dataset estimates. Estimates of spotted owl pair occupancy across the study area were lower than previous territory-based estimates based on call-playback surveys. Our integrated model further showed that a concurrent barred owl removal experiment increased landscape use and site occupancy by pairs of spotted owls. Our empirical application of an integrated modelling approach demonstrates a useful analytical framework for long-term monitoring efforts undergoing methodological transitions (e.g. mark-recapture to non-invasive population monitoring). This framework allows monitoring programs to maintain continuity of monitoring objectives across methodological transitions, rigorously incorporate previous findings, and adaptively respond to changing ecological conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the sub-species geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did and did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Feather corticosterone reveals developmental challenges in a long-term study of juvenile northern spotted owls

Corticosterone is a steroid hormone integral to a variety of physiological pathways and is strongly associated with the vertebrate stress response. In avian species, circulating corticosterone is sequestered into developing feathers and is used as an indicator of energy allocation during feather growth and widely applied in conservation physiology. The northern spotted owl Strix occidentalis caurina is a federally threatened old-growth forest obligate of conservation concern endemic to the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. The effects of landscape characteristics and individual variation on early development in spotted owls remain unstudied despite long recognition of this knowledge gap and its potential importance to species conservation. We quantified corticosterone concentrations in 4,720 feathers from 1,056 juvenile spotted owls across seven study areas between 2001 and 2017. We used an information-theoretic approach to examine the environmental and individual factors related to feather corticosterone in juvenile spotted owls as an indicator of challenges during early development. Feather corticosterone was positively related to temperature and precipitation, and negatively related to juvenile mass at banding. We found strong support for an interaction between mass and precipitation, with greater amounts of precipitation being associated with higher levels of feather corticosterone in lighter juveniles. The temperature and precipitation metric with the strongest relationship with feather corticosterone occurred during the fledging period, suggesting that this period presents an energetic challenge for juvenile spotted owls. Greater juvenile mass decreased the effect of precipitation, suggesting that greater mass was important for juveniles to maintain homeostasis during fledgling. Feather corticosterone in juvenile spotted owls provided insights to the challenges faced during early development, adding to our understanding of spotted owl life history and potential for population recovery.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Differential landscape use by forest owls two years after a mixed-severity wildfire

Owls are important avian predators in forested systems, but little is known about landscape use by most forest-adapted owl species in environments impacted by mixed-severity wildfire. To better understand species-specific patterns of post-wildfire landscape use within an owl guild, we used passive acoustic monitoring using autonomous recording units. The technology is effective for multi-species surveys, especially if some species are rare, nocturnal, or difficult to detect by traditional means. In 2017, we surveyed the interior and adjacent unburned areas of a 10,700-ha mixed-severity wildfire that burned in 2015 in southwest Oregon. We used occupancy modeling to identify patterns of landscape use by five species of forest owls: barred owls ( Strix varia ), great horned owls ( Bubo virginianus ), western screech-owls ( Megascops kennicottii ), northern pygmy-owls ( Glaucidium gnoma ), and northern saw-whet owls ( Aegolius acadicus ). Our results showed a positive relationship between increasing fire severity and probability of use by western screech-owls and a similar but somewhat weaker relationship for northern pygmy-owls. Barred owls were rarely detected in severely burned areas and their use decreased with increased fire severity. We observed generally low landscape use for great horned owls, which decreased with increased fire severity and at higher elevations. Thus, four out of the five species appeared to use recently burned forests at different levels, with only northern saw-whet owls showing near-complete avoidance of the burned area. These findings increase our understanding of the basic ecology of each species and highlight the varied use of burned areas within this community. These previously undocumented patterns of landscape use in burned landscapes should provide insights to managers and policymakers in the Pacific Northwest as climate shifts, and fires may increase in size, frequency, and severity.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Conspecific and congeneric interactions shape increasing rates of breeding dispersal of northern spotted owls

Breeding dispersal, the movement from one breeding territory to another, is rare for philopatric species that evolved within relatively stable environments, such as the old-growth coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest. Although dispersal is not inherently maladaptive, the consequences of increased dispersal on population dynamics in populations whose historical dispersal rates are low could be significant, particularly for a declining species. We examined rates and possible causes of breeding dispersal based on a sample of 4,118 northern spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) monitored in seven study areas over 28 yr, 1990–2017, in Oregon and Washington, USA. Using a multistate mark–resight analysis, we investigated the potential impacts of an emergent congeneric competitor (barred owl Strix varia ) and forest alteration (extrinsic factors), and social and individual conditions (intrinsic factors) on 408 successive and 1,372 nonsuccessive dispersal events between years. The annual probability of breeding dispersal increased for individual owls that had also dispersed in the previous year and decreased for owls on territories with historically high levels of reproduction. Intrinsic factors including pair status, prior reproductive success, and experience at a site, were also associated with breeding dispersal movements. The percent of monitored owls dispersing each year increased from ˜7% early in the study to ˜25% at the end of the study, which coincided with a rapid increase in numbers of invasive and competitively dominant barred owls. We suggest that the results presented here can inform spotted owl conservation efforts as we identify factors contributing to changing rates of demographic parameters including site fidelity and breeding dispersal. Our study further shows that increasing rates of breeding dispersal associated with population declines contribute to population instability and vulnerability of northern spotted owls to extinction, and the prognosis is unlikely to change unless active management interventions are undertaken.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Invader removal triggers competitive release in a threatened avian predator

Invasive species can cause extinctions of native species and widespread biodiversity loss. Invader removal is a common management response, but the use of long-term field experiments to characterize effectiveness of removals in benefitting impacted native species is rare. We used a large-scale removal experiment to investigate the demographic response of a threatened native species, the northern spotted owl, to removal of an invasive competitor species, the barred owl. Removal of barred owls had a strong, positive effect on survival of spotted owls, which arrested long-term population declines of spotted owls. The results demonstrate that the long-term persistence of spotted owls will depend heavily on reducing the negative impacts of barred owls while simultaneously addressing other threats, such as habitat loss.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Range-wide declines of northern spotted owl populations in the Pacific Northwest: A meta-analysis

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls ( Strix varia ), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess population trends and factors affecting those trends in northern spotted owls using 26 years of survey and capture-recapture data from 11 study areas across the owls' geographic range to analyze demographic traits, rates of population change, and occupancy parameters for spotted owl territories. We found that northern spotted owl populations experienced significant declines of 6–9% annually on 6 study areas and 2–5% annually on 5 other study areas. Annual declines translated to ≤35% of the populations remaining on 7 study areas since 1995. Barred owl presence on spotted owl territories was the primary factor negatively affecting apparent survival, recruitment, and ultimately, rates of population change. Analysis of spotted and barred owl detections in an occupancy framework corroborated the capture-recapture analyses with barred owl presence increasing territorial extinction and decreasing territorial colonization of spotted owls. While landscape habitat components reduced the effect of barred owls on these rates of decline, they did not reverse the negative trend. Our analyses indicated that northern spotted owl populations potentially face extirpation if the negative effects of barred owls are not ameliorated while maintaining northern spotted owl habitat across their range.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Simulating the effort necessary to detect changes in northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) populations using passive acoustic monitoring

Passive acoustic monitoring is a promising method for monitoring rare and nocturnal species, and for tracking changes in forest wildlife biodiversity. We conducted simulations to compare and evaluate various passive acoustic sampling designs effectiveness for monitoring spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) population trends. We found that each design was effective for detecting a decline (or stability) in spotted own populations within 10 years with even a moderate amount of sampling. There are however, important considerations and tradeoffs among the various design options. Often, estimated changes in use of the landscape were biased with a consistently lower magnitude of change compared to simulated changes in the population. Although this method has challenges, passive acoustic monitoring can be used to effectively monitor northern spotted owls in the Pacific Northwest.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Effects of barred owl (Strix varia) removal on population demography of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in Washington and Oregon—2019 annual report

Strix occidentalis caurina (northern spotted owl; hereinafter referred to as spotted owl) have rapidly declined throughout the subspecies’ geographic range. Competition with invading Strix varia (barred owl) has been identified as an immediate cause of those declines. A pilot study in California showed that removal of barred owls coupled with conservation of suitable habitat conditions can slow or even reverse population declines of spotted owls. It is unknown, however, whether similar results can be obtained in areas with different forest conditions, greater densities of barred owls, and fewer remaining spotted owls. We used a before-after-control-impact experimental design on three study areas with long-term demographic information on spotted owls to determine if removal of barred owls can improve population trends of spotted owls. This report summarizes research accomplishments and initial results from the first 4.5 years (from March 2015 to August 2019) of implementing barred owl removal experiments in Washington and Oregon.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Passive acoustic monitoring effectively detects Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls over a range of forest conditions

Passive acoustic monitoring using autonomous recording units (ARUs) is a fast-growing area of wildlife research especially for rare, cryptic species that vocalize. Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) populations have been monitored since the mid-1980s using mark–recapture methods. To evaluate an alternative survey method, we used ARUs to detect calls of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls ( S. varia ), a congener that has expanded its range into the Pacific Northwest and threatens Northern Spotted Owl persistence. We set ARUs at 30 500-ha hexagons (150 ARU stations) with recent Northern Spotted Owl activity and high Barred Owl density within Northern Spotted Owl demographic study areas in Oregon and Washington, and set ARUs to record continuously each night from March to July, 2017. We reviewed spectrograms (visual representations of sound) and tagged target vocalizations to extract calls from ~160,000 hr of recordings. Even in a study area with low occupancy rates on historical territories (Washington’s Olympic Peninsula), the probability of detecting a Northern Spotted Owl when it was present in a hexagon exceeded 0.95 after 3 weeks of recording. Environmental noise, mainly from rain, wind, and streams, decreased detection probabilities for both species over all study areas. Using demographic information about known Northern Spotted Owls, we found that weekly detection probabilities of Northern Spotted Owls were higher when ARUs were closer to known nests and activity centers and when owls were paired, suggesting passive acoustic data alone could help locate Northern Spotted Owl pairs on the landscape. These results demonstrate that ARUs can effectively detect Northern Spotted Owls when they are present, even in a landscape with high Barred Owl density, thereby facilitating the use of passive, occupancy-based study designs to monitor Northern Spotted Owl populations.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Is your ad hoc model selection strategy affecting your multimodel inference?

(Yackulic) 1. Ecologists routinely fit complex models with multiple parameters of interest, where hundreds or more competing models are plausible. To limit the number of fitted models, ecologists often define a model selection strategy composed of a series of stages in which certain features of a model are compared while other features are held constant. Defining these multi-stage strategies requires making a series of decisions, which may potentially impact inferences, but have not been critically evaluated. 2. We begin by identifying key features of strategies, introducing descriptive terms when they did not already exist in the literature. Strategies differ in how they define and order model building stages. Sequential-by-sub-model strategies focus on one sub-model (parameter) at a time with modeling of subsequent sub-models dependent on the selected model structures from the previous stages. Secondary candidate set strategies model sub-models independently and combine the top set of models from each sub-model for selection in a final stage. Build-up approaches define stages across sub-models and increase in complexity at each stage. Strategies also differ in how the top set of models is selected in each stage and whether they use null or more complex model structures for non-target sub-models. 3. We tested the performance of different model selection strategies using four datasets and three model types. For each dataset, we determined the “true” distribution of AIC weights by fitting all plausible models. Then, we calculated the number of models that would have been fitted and the portion of “true” AIC weight we recovered under different model selection strategies. 4. Sequential-by-sub-model strategies often performed poorly. Build-up or secondary candidate sets were more reliable, provided all models within 5 AIC of the top model were carried forward to subsequent stages. The structure of non-target sub-models was less important. 5. Multi-stage approaches cannot compensate for a lack of critical thought in selecting covariates and building models to represent competing a priori hypotheses. However, even when competing hypotheses for different sub-models are limited, thousands or more models may be possible so strategies to explore candidate model space reliably and efficiently will be necessary.

Ecosphere↗