Geology topics

D.J. Hayes

Publications and source records attributed to D.J. Hayes.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change ( γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C −1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2015

North America's net terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO 2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO 2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO 2 , with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr −1 , where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr −1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr −1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO 2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr −1 and assuming the estimate of −472 Tg C yr −1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO 2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2015

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Nature↗

USGS2013

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2011

Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?

Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high-latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr-1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th century. Our results suggest that CO 2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of (1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and (2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2010

An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006

This study used several model-based tools to analyse the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr -1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr -1 . Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO 2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr -1 , which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO 2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH 4 yr -1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH 4 yr -1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH 4 . Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH 4 emissions is much greater than the CO 2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗