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Geology topics

D.B. Fagre

Publications and source records attributed to D.B. Fagre.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2013

Feedback-driven response to multidecadal climatic variability at an alpine treeline

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has significant climatological and ecological effects in northwestern North America. Its possible effects and their modification by feedbacks are examined in the forest-tundra ecotone in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Tree ring samples were collected to estimate establishment dates in 10 quadrats. Age-diameter regressions were used to estimate the ages of uncored trees. The temporal pattern of establishment and survival was compared to the pattern of the PDO. A wave of establishment began in the mid-1940s, rose to a peak rate in the mid-1970s, and dropped precipitously beginning ca. 1980 to near zero for the 1990s. The period of establishment primarily coincided with the negative phase of the PDO, but the establishment and survival pattern is not correlated with the PDO index. The pattern indicates a period during which establishment was possible and was augmented by positive feedback from surviving trees. Snow may be the most important factor in the feedback, but studies indicate that its effects vary locally. Spatially differentiated analyses of decadal or longer periodicity may elucidate responses to climatic variation.

Montana↗
USGS2013

Influences of geomorphology and geology on alpine treeline in the American West - More important than climatic influences?

The spatial distribution and pattern of alpine treeline in the American West reflect the overarching influences of geological history, lithology and structure, and geomorphic processes and landforms, and geologic and geomorphic factors—both forms and processes—can control the spatiotemporal response of the ecotone to climate change. These influences occur at spatial scales ranging from the continental scale to fine scale processes and landforms at the slope scale. Past geomorphic influences, particularly Pleistocene glaciation, have also left their impact on treeline, and treelines across the west are still adjusting to post-Pleistocene conditions within Pleistocene-created landforms. Current fine scale processes include solifluction and changes on relict solifluction and digging by animals. These processes should be examined in detail in future studies to facilitate a better understanding of where individual tree seedlings become established as a primary response of the ecotone to climate change.

The Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2009

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2008

Spatial reconstructions and comparisons of historic snow avalanche frequency and extent using tree rings in Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.

Natural snow avalanches have periodically damaged infrastructure and disrupted railroad and highway traffic at the southwestern corner of Glacier National Park, Montana. The 94-year history of these disruptions constitutes an uncommon record of natural avalanches spanning over nine decades and presents a unique opportunity to examine how natural avalanche frequency and minimum extent have varied over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. This study compared the historic record of natural avalanches in one avalanche path with tree-ring evidence of avalanches from 109 cross sections and increment cores collected in the same path. Results from combined historic and tree-ring records yielded 27 avalanche years in the 1910-2003 chronology, with the historic record alone underestimating avalanche years by half. Mean return period was 3.2 years. Interpolated maps allowed for more spatially precise estimates of return periods throughout the runout zone than previous studies. The maps show return periods increase rapidly downslope from 2.3 to 25 years. Avalanche years were associated with positive Snow Water Equivalent anomalies at a nearby snow course. Minimum avalanche extent was highly variable but not associated with snowpack anomalies. Most avalanche years coincided with years in which the mean January-February Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 3.4 indices were neutral. The findings suggest that changes in Pacific climate patterns that influence snowfall could also alter the frequency of natural snow avalanches and could thus change disturbance patterns in the montane forests of the canyon. ?? 2008 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗
USGS2007

Watershed responses to climate change at Glacier National Park

We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and the potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activities: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic organism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mountain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which collectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs of ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, and snowpack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stream discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be significantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scenarios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scientific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park management.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

Development of a spatial analysis method using ground-based repeat photography to detect changes in the alpine treeline ecotone, Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.

Repeat photography is a powerful tool for detection of landscape change over decadal timescales. Here a novel method is presented that applies spatial analysis software to digital photo-pairs, allowing vegetation change to be categorized and quantified. This method is applied to 12 sites within the alpine treeline ecotone of Glacier National Park, Montana, and is used to examine vegetation changes over timescales ranging from 71 to 93 years. Tree cover at the treeline ecotone increased in 10 out of the 12 photo-pairs (mean increase of 60%). Establishment occurred at all sites, infilling occurred at 11 sites. To demonstrate the utility of this method, patterns of tree establishment at treeline are described and the possible causes of changes within the treeline ecotone are discussed. Local factors undoubtedly affect the magnitude and type of the observed changes, however the ubiquity of the increase in tree cover implies a common forcing mechanism. Mean minimum summer temperatures have increased by 1.5??C over the past century and, coupled with variations in the amount of early spring snow water equivalent, likely account for much of the increase in tree cover at the treeline ecotone. Lastly, shortcomings of this method are presented along with possible solutions and areas for future research. ?? 2007 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Montana↗
USGS2006

Divergent patterns of abundance and age-class structure of headwater stream tadpoles in burned and unburned watersheds

Wildfire is a potential threat to many species with narrow environmental tolerances like the Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus Mittleman and Myers, 1949), which inhabits a region where the frequency and intensity of wildfires are expected to increase. We compared pre- and post-fire counts of tadpoles in eight streams in northwestern Montana to determine the effects of wildfire on A. montanus . All streams were initially sampled in 2001, 2 years before four of them burned in a large wildfire, and were resampled during the 2 years following the fire. Counts of tadpoles were similar in the two groups of streams before the fire. After the fire, tadpoles were almost twice as abundant in unburned streams than in burned streams. The fire seemed to have the greatest negative effect on abundance of age-1 tadpoles, which was reflected in the greater variation in same-stream age-class structure compared with those in unburned streams. Despite the apparent effect on tadpoles, we do not expect the wildfire to be an extirpation threat to populations in the streams that we sampled. Studies spanning a chronosequence of fires, as well as in other areas, are needed to assess the effects of fires on streams with A. montanus and to determine the severity and persistence of these effects.

Montana↗
USGS2005

Estimated ultraviolet radiation doses in wetlands in six national parks

Ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B, 280–320-nm wavelengths) doses were estimated for 1024 wetlands in six national parks: Acadia (Acadia), Glacier (Glacier), Great Smoky Mountains (Smoky), Olympic (Olympic), Rocky Mountain (Rocky), and Sequoia/Kings Canyon (Sequoia). Estimates were made using ground-based UV-B data (Brewer spectrophotometers), solar radiation models, GIS tools, field characterization of vegetative features, and quantification of DOC concentration and spectral absorbance. UV-B dose estimates were made for the summer solstice, at a depth of 1 cm in each wetland. The mean dose across all wetlands and parks was 19.3 W-h m −2 (range of 3.4–32.1 W-h m −2 ). The mean dose was lowest in Acadia (13.7 W-h m −2 ) and highest in Rocky (24.4 W-h m −2 ). Doses were significantly different among all parks. These wetland doses correspond to UV-B flux of 125.0 μW cm −2 (range 21.4–194.7 μW cm −2 ) based on a day length, averaged among all parks, of 15.5 h. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), a key determinant of water-column UV-B flux, ranged from 0.6 (analytical detection limit) to 36.7 mg C L −1 over all wetlands and parks, and reduced potential maximal UV-B doses at 1-cm depth by 1%–87 %. DOC concentration, as well as its effect on dose, was lowest in Sequoia and highest in Acadia (DOC was equivalent in Acadia, Glacier, and Rocky). Landscape reduction of potential maximal UV-B doses ranged from zero to 77% and was lowest in Sequoia. These regional differences in UV-B wetland dose illustrate the importance of considering all aspects of exposure in evaluating the potential impact of UV-B on aquatic organisms.

Acadia National Park, Glacier National Park, Great↗
USGS2005

Distribution patterns of lentic-breeding amphibians in relation to ultraviolet radiation exposure in western North America

An increase in ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation has been posited to be a potential factor in the decline of some amphibian population. This hypothesis has received support from laboratory and field experiments showing that current levels of UV-B can cause embryo mortality in some species, but little research has addressed whether UV-B is influencing the distribution of amphibian populations. We compared patterns of amphibian presence to site-specific estimates of UV-B dose at 683 ponds and lakes in Glacier, Olympic, and Sequoia–Kings Canyon National Parks. All three parks are located in western North America, a region with a concentration of documented amphibian declines. Site-specific daily UV-B dose was estimated using modeled and field-collected data to incorporate the effects of elevation, landscape, and water-column dissolved organic carbon. Of the eight species we examined ( Ambystoma gracile, Ambystoma macrodactylum, Bufo boreas, Pseudacris regilla, Rana cascadae, Rana leuteiventris, Rana muscosa, Taricha granulosa ), two species ( T. granulosa and A. macrodactylum ) had quadratic relationships with UV-B that could have resulted from negative UV-B effects. Both species were most likely to occur at moderate UV-B levels. Ambystoma macrodactylum showed this pattern only in Glacier National Park. Occurrence of A. macrodactylum increased as UV-B increased in Olympic National Park despite UV-B levels similar to those recorded in Glacier. We also found marginal support for a negative association with UV-B for P. regilla in one of the two parks where it occurred. We did not find evidence of a negative UV-B effect for any other species. Much more work is still needed to determine whether UV-B, either alone or in concert with other factors, is causing widespread population losses in amphibians.

California, Montana, Washington↗
USGS2004

Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ???70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Montana↗
USGS2003

Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100

The glaciers in the Blackfoot–Jackson Glacier Basin of Glacier National Park, Montana, decreased in area from 21.6 square kilometers (km 2 ) in 1850 to 7.4 km 2 in 1979. Over this same period global temperatures increased by 0.45°C (± 0.15°C). We analyzed the climatic causes and ecological consequences of glacier retreat by creating spatially explicit models of the creation and ablation of glaciers and of the response of vegetation to climate change. We determined the melt rate and spatial distribution of glaciers under two possible future climate scenarios, one based on carbon dioxide–induced global warming and the other on a linear temperature extrapolation. Under the former scenario, all glaciers in the basin will disappear by the year 2030, despite predicted increases in precipitation; under the latter, melting is slower. Using a second model, we analyzed vegetation responses to variations in soil moisture and increasing temperature in a complex alpine landscape and predicted where plant communities are likely to be located as conditions change.

Montana↗
USGS2002

Interannual variations in snowpack in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem

Ecosystem changes such as glacier recession and alpine treeline advance have been documented over the previous 150 years in the Rocky Mountains of northern Montana and southern British Columbia and Alberta, a region known as the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE). Such changes are controlled, at least partially, by variations in snowpack. The CCE consists primarily of public lands, the majority of which is undeveloped or wilderness. Consequently, this region is well suited for an examination of long-term snowpack variation and associated ecosystem change. Data from nine SNOTEL sites provide an indication of the daily accumulation and ablation of snowpack over the period 1977-2001, as well as the relationship between precipitation, temperature and snowpack. 1 April data from 21 snow courses indicated the extent of regional snowpack variation and trends over the period 1950-2001, and 1 May data from three snow courses in Glacier National Park allow this record to be extended back to 1922. SNOTEL data suggest CCE snowpacks are larger and more persistent than in most regions of the western USA, and that water year precipitation is the primary control on 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE). Snow course data indicate that variations in both 1 April and 1 May mean SWE are closely tied to the Pacific decadal oscillation, an El Nino-southern oscillation-like interdecadal pattern of Pacific Ocean climate variability. Despite relatively stable snowpacks and summer temperatures since 1922, the glaciers in Glacier National Park have receded steadily during this period, implying a significant climatic shift between their Little Ice Age glacial maxima (ca 1860) and 1922. Published in 2002 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Montana↗
USGS2002

A half century of change in alpine treeline patterns at Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A.

Using sequential aerial photography, we identified changes in the spatial distribution of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) habitat at the alpine treeline ecotone. Six 40-ha study sites in the McDonald Creek drainage of Glacier National Park contained subalpine fir forests that graded into alpine tundra. Over a 46-yr period, altitudinal changes in the location of alpine treeline ecotone were not observed. However, over this 46-yr period the area of krummholz, patch-forest, and continuous canopy forest increased by 3.4%, and tree density increased within existing patches of krummholz and patch-forest. Change in subalpine fir vegetation patterns within 100 m of trails was also compared to areas without trails. Within 100 m of trails, the number of small, discrete krummholz stands increased compared to areas without trails, but there was no significant change in total krummholz area. We used historical terrestrial photography to expand the period (to 70 yr) considered. This photography supported the conclusions that a more abrupt ecotone transition developed from forest to tundra at alpine treeline, that tree density within forested areas increased, and that krummholz became fragmented along trails. This local assessment of fine-grained change in the alpine treeline ecotone provides a comparative base for looking at ecotone change in other mountain regions throughout the world.

Montana↗
USGS2002

Spatial and temporal snowpack variation in the crown of the continent ecosystem

Snowpack related ecosystem changes such as glacier recession and alpine treeline advance have been documented in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) over the course of the previous 150 years. Using data from the Natural Resource Conservation Service's SNOTEL sites and snow course surveys, we examined the spatial and temporal variation in snowpack in the region. SNOTEL data suggest CCE snowpacks are larger and more persistent than in most regions of the Western U.S., and that water year precipitation, rather than mean temperature, is the primary control on April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Snow course data indicate a statistically significant downward trend in mean April 1 SWE for the period 1950-2001 but no statistically significant trend in mean May 1 SWE for the longer period 1922-2001. Further analysis reveals that variations in both April 1 and May 1 mean SWE are closely tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an ENSO-like interdecadal pattern of Pacific Ocean climate variability. Despite no significant trend in mean May 1 SWE between 1922-2001, glaciers in Glacier National Park receded steadily during this period, implying changing climatic conditions crossed a threshold for glacier mass balance maintenace sometime between the Little Ice Age glacial maxima and 1922.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2000

Management of land use conflicts in the United States Rocky Mountains

People have long been attracted to the beauty and grandeur of the Rocky Mountains. Until very recently, however, the Rocky Mountain region was sparsely populated and its use mostly extractive. Commodities removed in massive quantities included first beaver, then precious metals, timber, energy, and finally water. There has been a fundamental change in migration patterns since the 1980s. Populations are expanding not only in urban areas; many rural areas are also growing faster. In an affluent and mobile society, Americans are moving to the West for aesthetic reasons, often based on perceptions that have little to do with regional roots, family ties, or economic opportunities. Wallace Stegner described the West into the 1980s as a colony for the rest of the nation. “It seems to be almost like a continuous repetitive act of God that the western resources should be mined …, that populations should rush in and have to rush out again, or trickle out again…. Get in, get rich, get out….Every boom and bust leaves the West physically a little poorer, a little worse damaged” ( Stegner 1996 ). In an article about actor and director Robert Redford, writer Richard Raynor talks about unexpected side effects Redford's movies have had on American behavior. “A River Runs Through It" dangerously swelled the banks of American rivers with novice fishermen. It seems likely that Redford's loving rendition of ranch life in The Horse Whisperer … will have a similar effect on western Montana, filling it with even more people in a nostalgic search for American rapture and simplicity” (1998).

Rocky Mountains↗