D. Kirschbaum | USGS Science

USGS2016

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake

The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

Science↗

USGS2014

Evaluating a slope-stability model for shallow rain-induced landslides using gage and satellite data

Improving prediction of landslide early warning systems requires accurate estimation of the conditions that trigger slope failures. This study tested a slope-stability model for shallow rainfall-induced landslides by utilizing rainfall information from gauge and satellite records. We used the TRIGRS model (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis) for simulating the evolution of the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Using a spatial subset of a well-characterized digital landscape from an earlier study, we considered shallow failure on a slope adjoining an urban transportation roadway near the Seattle area in Washington, USA. We ran the TRIGRS model using high-quality rain gage and satellite-based rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results with parameterized soil depth values suggest that the steeper slope values in this spatial domain have factor of safety values that are extremely close to the failure limit within an extremely narrow range of values, providing multiple false alarms. When the soil depths were constrained using a back analysis procedure to ensure that slopes were stable under initial condtions, the model accurately predicted the timing and location of the landslide observation without false alarms over time for gage rain data. The TRMM satellite rainfall data did not show adequately retreived rainfall peak magnitudes and accumulation over the study period, and as a result failed to predict the landslide event. These preliminary results indicate that more accurate and higher-resolution rain data (e.g., the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission) are required to provide accurate and reliable landslide predictions in ungaged basins.

Book chapter↗