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D. J. Varnes

Publications and source records attributed to D. J. Varnes.

16 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region

The seismic cycle for the San Francisco Bay region is synthesized by a model combining the pre- and post-1906 seismic histories. The long-term acceleration of seismic release (seismic moment, Benioff strain release, or event count) in the seismic cycle and the shorter-term accelerations preceding the larger earthquakes within that cycle are modeled using an empirical predictive technique, called a time-to-failure analysis, in which rate of seismic release is proportional to an inverse power of the remainng time to failure. The exponent of time to failure in the accelerating sequences appears to be scale invariant, and the length of the full cycle is estimated at 269±50 yr. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake should have been predictable with an uncertainty of two years in time and 0.5 in magnitude, although the specific location (at Loma Prieta) was not predictable by this technique. If the model is correct, the San Francisco Bay region should be entering a relatively long (20-50 yr) period of seismic quiescence above magnitude 6.

California↗
USGS1996

The cyclic and fractal seismic series preceding an mb 4.8 earthquake on 1980 February 14 near the Virgin Islands

Seismic activity in the 10 months preceding the 1980 February 14, m b 4.8 earthquake in the Virgin Islands, reported on by Frankel in 1982, consisted of four principal cycles. Each cycle began with a relatively large event or series of closely spaced events, and the duration of the cycles progressively shortened by a factor of about 3/4. Had this regular shortening of the cycles been recognized prior to the earthquake, the time of the next episode of seismicity (the main shock) might have been closely estimated 41 days in advance. That this event could be much larger than the previous events is indicated from time-to-failure analysis of the accelerating rise in released seismic energy, using a non-linear time- and slip-predictable foreshock model. Examination of the timing of all events in the sequence shows an even higher degree of order. Rates of seismicity, measured by consecutive interevent times, when plotted on an iteration diagram of a rate versus the succeeding rate, form a triangular circulating trajectory. The trajectory becomes an ascending helix if extended in a third dimension, time. This construction reveals additional and precise relations among the time intervals between times of relatively high or relatively low rates of seismic activity, including period halving and doubling. The set of 666 time intervals between all possible pairs of the 37 recorded events appears to be a fractal; the set of time points that define the intervals has a finite, non-integer correlation dimension of 0.70. In contrast, the average correlation dimension of 50 random sequences of 37 events is significantly higher, close to 1.0. In a similar analysis, the set of distances between pairs of epicentres has a fractal correlation dimension of 1.52. Well-defined cycles, numerous precise ratios among time intervals, and a non-random temporal fractal dimension suggest that the seismic series is not a random process, but rather the product of a deterministic dynamic system.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1994

Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region

The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or more M???7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994-1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type "A" zones), while others show deceleration (type "D" zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes-in 1957, 1964, and 1965-originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1990

A suggested method for reporting a landslide

The Landslide Report is a Suggested Method developed by the International Geotechnical Societies' UNESCO Working Party on World Landslide Inventory for reporting the position, date, type, geometry, volume and damage of significant landslides.

Bulletin of the International Association of Engin↗
USGS1990

Suggested nomenclature for landslides

The IAEG Commission on Landslides and other Mass Movements on Slopes has proposed English and French names for 19 identifiable features of slope movements and for 7 dimensions of those features. The Commission intends to publish this list in other languages and to supplement and revise it from time to time.

Bulletin of the International Association of Engin↗
USGS1989

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1976

Gravitational spreading of steep-sided ridges ("sackung") in western United States

Large-scale gravitational spreading and movement along fractures of steep-sided ridges in the mountainous areas of the western United States are characterized by linear fissures, trenches, and uphill-facing scarps on tops and sides of ridges. Spreading appears to take place by movement along disconnected planes and/or by slow plastic deformation of a rock mass. In some places, valleyward squeezing out of weak shales overlain by rigid rocks causes extensional fracturing and outward movement of the rigid layers, as illustrated by extension of two laccoliths overlying Mancos Shale, one at Dolores Peak and another at Crested Butte in western Colorado. Gravitational forces acting on a ridge of more homogeneous material causes tensional spreading of the ridge parallel to its long axis, for example in fractured granitic rock north of Mt. Massive in central Colorado, where a survey course has been established to monitor the movement. Recognition and understanding of these large-scale gravitational features and the mechanism that causes them are pertinent to site selection and design of engineering structures in high mountains. If fractures extend to considerable depth and if movement is continuing, engineering structures in valleys or tunnels through the spreading ridges could be damaged.

Bulletin of the International Association of Engin↗
USGS1976

Landslides - Cause and effect

Landslides can cause seismic disturbances; landslides can also result from seismic disturbances, and earthquake-induced slides have caused loss of life in many countries. Slides can cause disastrous flooding, particularly when landslide dams across streams are breached, and flooding may trigger slides. Slope movement in general is a major process of the geologic environment that places constraints on engineering development. In order to understand and foresee both the causes and effects of slope movement, studies must be made on a regional scale, at individual sites, and in the laboratory. Areal studies — some embracing entire countries — have shown that certain geologic conditions on slopes facilitate landsliding; these conditions include intensely sheared rocks; poorly consolidated, fine-grained clastic rocks; hard fractured rocks underlain by less resistant rocks; or loose accumulations of fine-grained surface debris. Field investigations as well as mathematical- and physical-model studies are increasing our understanding of the mechanism of slope movement in fractured rock, and assist in arriving at practical solutions to landslide problems related to all kinds of land development for human use. Progressive failure of slopes has been studied in both soil and rock mechanics. New procedures have been developed to evaluate earthquake response of embankments and slopes. The finite element method of analysis is being extensively used in the calculation of slope stability in rock broken by joints, faults, and other discontinuities.

Bulletin of the International Association of Engin↗
USGS1969

Model for simulation of residual stress in rock

Rocks in mines, quarries, and many outcrops commonly show evidence of being under high stress. Saw cuts and drillholes close in, partly mined coal bursts violently, and pillars crush and rock spalls in mines even at moderate depths. Similarly, strong and massive rocks such as granite and sandstone naturally divide themselves into sheets that lie more or less parallel to their outward topographic form. The sheets may be either convex or concave. Thin plates of bare rock surfaces bow up and buckle. Such effects often cannot be explained by the obvious loads now acting on the rock, that is, by loads resulting from overburden, topographic irregularities, or stress concentration around openings. The stresses exceed those that would result from such loads. Two interpretations of such excess stresses have been made. In one, the stresses are assigned in origin to now active tectonic forces. In the other, they are regarded as leftover and locked in from some previous state at which higher pressures prevailed. These two sources may both operate and they generally cannot be distinguished easily in the field. There are other complicating sources of stress such as temperature gradients and chemical alteration. Nevertheless, some bodies of rock, by exfoliating, show evidence of high internal stress even though they are practically unweathered and so isolated topographically that the presence in them of significant stress due to exterior loads or active tectonic forces seems unlikely. Moreover, completely isolated rocks are known to change density shape, or size; to expand under constant compressive stress; and even to disintegrate without the intervention of weathering processes. The stresses involved here must be truly residual in the sense long used by metallurgists; that is, residual stresses in a body are those that remain, aside from the effect of gravity or temperature gradients, even after the boundaries are freed from loads. Residual stress within rock can exist only in a system of internally balanced forces. The existence of such balanced forces has been recognized for a long time--at least 180 years--to judge from an incomplete survey of the literature. Discussions have been presented more recently by Voight, Friedman, Emery, Price, Denkhaus, Kieslinger, and other engineers and geologists. Briefly, a simple version of the concept is that if a granite crystallizes at depth and is then unloaded by uplift and erosion, the compressed mineral grains cannot completely relax, owing to interlocking boundaries and mutual interference. A sandstone that becomes cemented while constituent grains are under high pressure cannot completely relax when cut free. Thus, a balance is achieved between forces of expansion in the interior of the crystalline grains and those of restraint at grain boundaries or in the cement.

Conference Paper↗