Geology topics
Courtney L. Amundson
Publications and source records attributed to Courtney L. Amundson.
Rapid population decline in McKay's Bunting, an Alaskan endemic, highlights the species’ current status relative to international standards for vulnerable species
The McKay’s Bunting ( Plectrophenax hyperboreus ) is endemic to Alaska, breeds solely on the remote and uninhabited St. Matthew and Hall islands (332 km 2 ) in the central Bering Sea, and is designated as a species of high conservation concern due to its small population size and restricted range. A previous hypothesized population estimate (~2,800—6,000 individuals) was greatly increased (~31,200 individuals) after systematic surveys of the species’ entire breeding range in 2003, establishing McKay’s Bunting as one of the rarest passerines in North America. In 2018, we replicated the 2003 surveys and used density surface models to estimate breeding season densities, distributions, and population change over the intervening time period. Our results indicate that the McKay's Bunting population declined by 38% (95% CI: 27—48%) from ~31,560 to 19,481 individuals since 2003. Spatial model predictions showed no areas with an increase of birds on either St. Matthew or Hall islands but revealed declines across 13% (42 km 2 ) of St. Matthew Island. Declines disproportionately occurred both in marginal habitats with reduced rocky nesting substrate and in high-density hotspots along the coast of St. Matthew Island. The total area occupied by breeding adults decreased by 8%, and high-density hotspots shifted inland from the coast of St. Matthew Island to higher elevations on both islands, the latter potentially responses to exceptionally warm weather and reduced spring snow cover in 2018. Additionally, we observed low numbers of predators and interspecific competitors in 2018 suggesting these did not cause the decline. Our findings indicate that McKay’s Bunting meets international standards for elevating its conservation status from Least Concern to Endangered based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species ranking criteria. Additional population monitoring and studies to identify the causal mechanisms of the recent population decline of this rare species could assist future population assessments.
Evaluation of the analytical methods used to determine the elemental concentrations found in the stream geochemical dataset compiled for Alaska
A recent U.S. Geological Survey data compilation of stream-sediment geochemistry for Alaska contains decades of analyses collected under numerous Federal and State programs. The compiled data were determined by various analytical methods. Some samples were reanalyzed by a different analytical method than the original, resulting in some elements having concentrations reported by multiple analytical methods. Consideration of the analytical methods used to determine the elemental concentrations is an important step in a mineral prospectivity analysis. We used the compiled data to compare concentrations of barium (Ba), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) determined by different analytical methods to show how simple data comparisons can identify bias and provide a general sense of the comparability of different analytical methods. The elements were selected because they have a range of geochemical properties that may affect the performance of different analytical procedures. Generally, agreement between Ba, Co, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations is good for most quantitative methods that use a total decomposition of the sample. However, Cr concentrations typically were lower for methods using quantitative-instrumental analysis following a multi-acid dissolution technique that included hydrofluoric acid compared to those using sinter decomposition. Additionally, low- to middle-range concentrations for Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn by instrumental neutron activation (NA) and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDX) analyzed by the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program have high uncertainty. Concentrations determined by methods that use partial decomposition of the sample generally correspond well to concentrations determined by methods that use a total decomposition technique, except for Ba and Cr. For Ba and Cr, partial decomposition techniques yield lower concentrations than those determined by methods that use a total decomposition technique. Comparison of Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations determined by semiquantitative visual six-step direct-current arc emission spectrography (ES_SQ) to those determined by quantitative methods using either a total or partial decomposition technique consistently show scatter that exceeds the values expected based on the range represented by the semiquantitative concentration. The data compilation includes a best-value determination that was selected based on the analytical method from the all concentration data for that sample. Ba, Cr, Co, and Zn concentrations determined by NA usually are selected as the best-value determination. However, the NURE-NA method was designed for high throughput and the uncertainty associated with low- and mid-range concentrations is greater than that of the multi-acid method used to reanalyze many samples. Selection of the multi-acid method over the NURE-NA method for Ba, Co, and Zn could be warranted. Additionally, concentrations determined by ES_SQ usually are selected as the best-value determination over all methods that use a partial decomposition of the sample. Substitution of concentrations determined by methods that use a partial decomposition for those of ES_SQ may be warranted for Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn. Regardless of the selection of the best-value determination, the dataset remains a mixed method dataset and the uncertainty due to differences in analytical methodology must be considered when using the dataset.
Monitoring annual trends in abundance of eelgrass (Zostera marina) at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, 2018
A lagoon-wide, point-sampling survey of eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) abundance was conducted in Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, August 7–16, 2018, the ninth year of annual surveys (2007–11, 2015–18). Mean predicted aboveground biomass of eelgrass across 116 sampled points was 238 grams per square meter (g m-2) (95 percent confidence interval: 203–278 g m-2) in 2018, an increase of 240 percent from the previous year’s low estimate of 97 g m-2 (95 percent confidence interval: 78–120 g m-2). The increase marked the third year since 2015 where eelgrass biomass was above the long-term mean (158 g m-2). Eelgrass biomass was stable over the 9 years of this survey. A separate (transect) survey for eelgrass abundance at Grant Point-Old Boat Launch showed annual trends in eelgrass biomass similar to the lagoon-wide survey, but over a slightly longer time (2007–18). The estimates of above-average eelgrass biomass in Izembek Lagoon were likely influenced by relatively warm air temperatures and little or no ice in winter (air temperatures 2.7 degrees Celsius greater than the 12-year mean) and average (cool) air temperatures during the growing season (April–August) in 2018.
Spatio-temporal population change of Arctic-breeding waterbirds on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska
Rapid physical changes that are occurring in the Arctic are primary drivers of landscape change and thus may drive population dynamics of Arctic-breeding birds. Despite the importance of this region to breeding and molting waterbirds, lack of a comprehensive analysis of historic data has hindered quantifying avian population change. We estimated distribution, abundance, and spatially explicit population trend of 20 breeding waterbird species using 25 years (1992–2016) of aerial survey data collected on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP), Alaska. The ACP is an extensive wetland complex on Alaska’s North Slope that supports millions of breeding waterbirds and includes portions of the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. We summarized annual counts into approximately 6-km by 6-km grid cells and analyzed data with generalized linear mixed models that accounted for survey timing and spatio-temporal autocorrelation. Geese and swans were most abundant along the coast between Admiralty Bay and Prudhoe Bay. Sea ducks, generalist predators (i.e., jaeger, gulls, terns), and loons were most abundant between Utqiaġvik and Point Lay, Alaska. Important areas for most species included the coastal fringe near Teshekpuk Lake, the Colville River Delta, and Admiralty Bay. The National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska was an important area for all species examined. Conversely, density on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge was greater than average for 20% of species. Annual population growth rates over the 25-year survey period were variable: 13 increased (range: 1.4%–13.8%), one decreased (-3.4%), and six were stable. However, even species with no overall population trend had areas of changing population size, suggesting localized conditions affected waterbird distributions on the ACP. Our results can be used to better inform land use decisions, improve monitoring of waterbird populations, and increase understanding of avian response to ecological change in the Arctic.
Nesting ecology of a naturalized population of Mallards Anas platyrhynchos in New Zealand
Investigating the reproductive ecology of naturalized species provides insights into the role of the source population's characteristics vs. post‐release adaptation that influence the success of introduction programmes. Introduced and naturalized Mallards Anas platyrhynchos are widely established in New Zealand (NZ), but little is known regarding their reproductive ecology. We evaluated the nesting ecology of female Mallards at two study sites in NZ (Southland and Waikato) in 2014–15. We radiotagged 241 pre‐breeding females with abdominal‐implant transmitters and measured breeding incidence, nesting chronology and re‐nesting propensity. We monitored 271 nests to evaluate nest survival, clutch and egg size, egg hatchability and partial clutch depredation. Breeding incidence averaged (mean ± se) 0.91 ± 0.03, clutch size averaged 9.9 ± 0.1 eggs, 94 ± 2% of eggs hatched in successful nests, partial depredation affected 6 ± 1% of eggs in clutches that were not fully destroyed by predators, and re‐nesting propensity following failure of nests or broods was 0.50 ± 0.003. Nesting season (first nest initiated to last nest hatched) lasted 4.5 months and mean initiation date of first detected nest attempts was 28 August ± 3.3 days. Smaller females were less likely to nest, but older, larger or better condition females nested earlier, re‐nested more often and laid larger clutches than did younger, smaller or poorer condition females. Younger females in Southland had higher nest survival; cumulative nest survival ranged from 0.25 ± 0.007 for adult females in Waikato to 0.50 ± 0.007 for yearling females in Southland. Compared with Mallards in their native range, the nesting season in NZ was longer, clutches and eggs were larger, and nest survival was generally greater. Different predators and climate, introgression with native heterospecifics and/or the sedentary nature of Mallards in NZ may have contributed to these differences.
Montane-breeding bird distribution and abundance across national parks of southwestern Alaska
Between 2004 and 2008, biologists conducted an inventory of breeding birds during May–June primarily in montane areas (>100 m above sea level) in Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve (Aniakchak NMP), Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai NPP), and Lake Clark National Park and Preserve (Lake Clark NPP) in southwestern Alaska. Observers conducted 1,021 point counts along 169 transects within 63 10-km × 10-km plots that were randomly selected and stratified by ecological subsection. We created hierarchical N-mixture models to estimate detection probability and abundance for 15 species, including 12 passerines, 2 galliforms, and 1 shorebird. We first modeled detection probability relative to observer, date within season, and proportion of dense vegetation cover around the point, then modeled abundance as a function of land cover composition (proportion of seven coarse-scale land cover types) within 300 m of the survey point. Land cover relationships varied widely among species but most showed selection for low to tall shrubs (0.2–5 m tall) and an avoidance of alpine and 2 dwarf shrub–herbaceous cover types. After adjusting for species not observed, we estimated a minimum of 107 ± 9 species bred in the areas surveyed within the three parks combined. Species richness was negatively associated with elevation and associated land cover types. At comparable levels of survey effort (n = 721 birds detected), species richness was greatest in Lake Clark NPP (75 ± 12 species), lowest in Aniakchak NMP (45 ± 6 species), and intermediate at Katmai NPP (59 ± 10 species). Species richness was similar at equivalent survey effort (n = 973 birds detected) within the Lime Hills, Alaska Range, and Alaska Peninsula ecoregions (68 ± 8; 79 ± 11; 67 ± 11, respectively). Species composition was similar across all three parks and across the three major ecoregions (Alaska Range, Alaska Peninsula, Lime Hills) that encompass them. Our results provide baseline estimates of relative abundance and models of abundance and species richness relative to land cover that can be used to assess future changes in avian distribution. Additionally, these subarctic montane parks may serve as signals of landscape change and barometers for the assessment of population and distributional changes as a result of warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.
Long‐term trends in fall age ratios of black brant
Accurate estimates of the age composition of populations can inform past reproductive success and future population trajectories. We examined fall age ratios (juveniles:total birds) of black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ; brant) staging at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska, USA, 1963 to 2015. We also investigated variation in fall age ratios associated with sampling location, an index of flock size, survey effort, day of season, observer, survey platform (boat‐ or land‐based) and tide stage. We analyzed data using logistic regression models implemented in a Bayesian framework. Mean predicted fall age ratio controlling for survey effort, day of year, and temporal and spatial variation was 0.24 (95% CL = 0.23, 0.25). Overall trend in age ratios was −0.6% per year (95% CL = −1.3%, 0.2%), resulting in an approximate 26% decline in the proportion of juveniles over the study period. We found evidence for variation across a range of variables implying that juveniles are not randomly distributed in space and time within Izembek Lagoon. Age ratios varied by location within the study area and were highly variable among years. They decreased with the number of birds aged (an index of flock size) and increased throughout September before leveling off in early October and declining in late October. Age ratios were similar among tide stages and observers and were lower during boat‐based (offshore) than land‐based (nearshore) surveys. Our results indicate surveys should be conducted annually during early to mid‐October to ensure the entire population is present and available for sampling, and throughout Izembek Lagoon to account for spatiotemporal variation in age ratios. Sampling should include a wide range of flock sizes representative of their distribution and occur in flocks located near and off shore. Further research evaluating the cause of declining age ratios in the fall population is necessary to inform management and predict long‐term population dynamics of brant.
Effects of surgically implanted transmitters on reproduction and survival in mallards
Abdominally implanted radiotransmitters have been widely used in studies of waterbird ecology; however, the longer handling times and invasiveness of surgical implantation raise important concerns about animal welfare and potential effects on data quality. Although it is difficult to assess effects of handling and marking wild animals by comparing them with unmarked controls, insights can often be obtained by evaluating variation in handling or marking techniques. Here, we used data from 243 female mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and mallard–grey duck hybrids ( A. platyrhynchos × A. superciliosa ) equipped with fully encapsulated abdominally implanted radiotransmitters from 2 study sites in New Zealand during 2014–2015 to assess potential marking effects. We evaluated survival, dispersal, and reproductive effort (e.g., breeding propensity, nest initiation date, clutch size) in response to 3 different attributes of handling duration and procedures: 1) processing time, including presurgery banding, measurements, and blood sampling of unanaesthetized birds; 2) surgery time from initiation to cessation of anesthetic; and 3) total holding time from first capture until release. We found no evidence that female survival, dispersal probability, or reproductive effort were negatively affected by holding, processing, or surgery time and concluded that we collected reliable data without compromising animal welfare. Our results support previous research that techniques using fully encapsulated abdominal-implant radiotransmitters are suitable to enable researchers to obtain reliable estimates of reproductive performance and survival.
Duckling survival of mallards in Southland, New Zealand
The southern portion of New Zealand's South Island is a productive area for mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) despite a notable lack of permanent or semi-permanent wetlands. Most broods are reared in pastures that may or may not be flooded with ephemeral water. In recent years, there has been an increased conversion from continuous to sporadic grazing that has resulted in a functional change in the emergent and upland vegetation available for broods. In 2014, we investigated mallard duckling survival on different pastures relative to a suite of characteristics pertaining to the adult female, clutch, brood, weather, and habitat. We monitored 438 ducklings from 50 radio-marked females to 30 days post-hatch. Duckling survival was unaffected by pasture type but increased with duckling age, the presence of ephemeral water, and with greater distance from the nearest anthropogenic structure. Survival was lower for broods of second year (SY) females than for broods of after-second year (ASY) females, in areas with more dense cover, and when ducklings moved, on average, greater daily distances. Cumulative 30-day duckling survival ranged from 0.11 for ducklings of SY females without ephemeral water present to 0.46 for ducklings of ASY females with ephemeral water present. Therefore, increasing available seasonal water sources may increase duckling survival. Further, narrow, linear patches of dense cover present in our study could support a greater abundance of predators or increase their foraging efficiency. As such, managers could consider increasing patch sizes of dense cover to reduce predator efficiency, and employing predator removal in these areas to improve duckling survival.
Harvest dynamics and annual survival of mallards and grey ducks
We examined how hunter behavior, environmental covariates, and mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and grey duck ( A. superciliosa ) population indices affected per capita harvest, hunter effort (i.e., hours hunted), and hunter participation (i.e., license sales) between 1997 and 2012 in the Eastern Fish and Game Region of New Zealand. Additionally, we examined how total annual hunter effort and harvest affected annual survival and harvest rates (i.e., the proportion of the population that is harvested). Per capita harvest increased with hunter effort and bag limits; hunter effort decreased over time, but effort and participation increased with mallard population size. Juvenile harvest rates were greater than for adults and negatively associated with population size. The relationship between harvest regulations and harvest rates was inconsistent. The 44‐day seasons had greater juvenile harvest rates than the 57‐ and 72‐day seasons. Similarly, years with a 7‐bag limit had higher juvenile harvest rates than years with a 10‐bag limit. Hunter effort affected annual survival rates, especially for females. Alternatively or concordantly, hunter effort may be a surrogate for population size and thus, survival rate may have been density dependent. The relationship between harvest and density‐dependent mortality may in part be augmented by hunter behavior; fewer hunters hunted for fewer hours in years with relatively few birds. Our results suggest bag limits are more effective than season length at managing harvest; reducing bag limits to <2 birds/day from ≥7 could decrease harvest by as much as 50%. Furthermore, regulation consistency, better education, and enforcement of season regulations may improve harvest management; 58% of active hunters reported they shot mallards or grey ducks after the close of the 31‐day season, which accounted for 13% of total harvest.
Waterfowl populations are resilient to immediate and lagged impacts of wildfires in the boreal forest
Summary 1. Wildfires are the principal disturbance in the boreal forest, and their size and frequency are increasing as the climate warms. Impacts of fires on boreal wildlife are largely unknown, especially for the tens of millions of waterfowl that breed in the region. This knowledge gap creates significant barriers to the integrative management of fires and waterfowl, leading to fire policies that largely disregard waterfowl. 2. Waterfowl populations across the western boreal forest of North America have been monitored annually since 1955 by the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (BPOP), widely considered the most extensive wildlife survey in the world. Using these data, we examined impacts of forest fires on abundance of two waterfowl guilds – dabblers and divers. We modelled waterfowl abundance in relation to fire extent (i.e. amount of survey transect burned) and time since fire, examining both immediate and lagged fire impacts. 3. From 1955 to 2014, >1100 fires in the western boreal forest intersected BPOP survey transects, and many transects burned multiple times. Nonetheless, fires had no detectable impact on waterfowl abundance; annual transect counts of dabbler and diver pairs remained stable from the pre- to post-fire period. 4. The absence of fire impacts on waterfowl abundance extended from the years immediately following the fire to those more than a decade afterwards. Likewise, the amount of transect burned did not influence waterfowl abundance, with similar pair counts from the pre- to post-fire period for small (1–20% burned), medium (21–60%) and large (>60%) burns. 5. Policy implications. Waterfowl populations appear largely resilient to forest fires, providing initial evidence that current policies of limited fire suppression, which predominate throughout much of the boreal forest, have not been detrimental to waterfowl populations. Likewise, fire-related management actions, such as prescribed burning or targeted suppression, seem to have limited impacts on waterfowl abundance and productivity. For waterfowl managers, our results suggest that adaptive models of waterfowl harvest, which annually guide hunting quotas, do not need to emphasize fires when integrating climate change effects.
Helminth community structure in two species of arctic-breeding waterfowl
Climate change is occurring rapidly at high latitudes, and subsequent changes in parasite communities may have implications for hosts including wildlife and humans. Waterfowl, in particular, harbor numerous parasites and may facilitate parasite movement across broad geographic areas due to migratory movements. However, little is known about helminth community structure of waterfowl at northern latitudes. We investigated the helminth communities of two avian herbivores that breed at high latitudes, Pacific black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ), and greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ), to examine effects of species, geographic area, age, and sex on helminth species richness, aggregation, prevalence, and intensity. We collected 83 and 58 black brant and white-fronted geese, respectively, from Arctic and Subarctic Alaska July-August 2014. We identified 10 known helminth species ( Amidostomum anseris , Amidostomum spatulatum , Drepanidotaenia lanceolata , Epomidiostomum crami , Heterakis dispar , Notocotylus attenuatus , Tetrameres striata , Trichostrongylus tenuis , Tschertkovilepis setigera , and Wardoides nyrocae ) and 1 previously undescribed trematode. All geese sampled were infected with at least one helminth species. All helminth species identified were present in both age classes and species, providing evidence of transmission at high latitudes and suggesting broad host susceptibility. Also, all but one helminth species were present at both sites, suggesting conditions are suitable for transmission across a large latitudinal/environmental gradient. Our study provides important baseline information on avian parasites that can be used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on host-parasite distributions.
A broader definition of occupancy: A reply to Hayes and Monofils
Occupancy models are widely used to analyze presence–absence data for a variety of taxa while accounting for observation error (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2006; Tyre et al. 2003; Royle and Dorazio 2008). Hayes and Monfils (2015) question their use for analyzing avian point count data based on purported violations of model assumptions incurred by avian mobility. Animal mobility is an important consideration, not just for occupancy models, but for a variety of population and habitat models (Boyce 2006, Royle et al. 2009, Manning and Goldberg 2010, Dormann et al. 2013, Renner et al. 2015). Nevertheless, we believe the ultimate conclusions of Hayes and Monfils are shortsighted mainly due to a narrow interpretation of occupancy. Rather than turn away from the use of occupancy models, we believe they remain an appropriate method for analyzing many data sets collected from avian point count surveys. Further, we suggest that there is value in having a broader and more nuanced interpretation of occupancy that incorporates the potential for animal movement.
Landscape and local effects on occupancy and densities of an endangered wood-warbler in an urbanizing landscape
Context Golden-cheeked warblers ( Setophaga chrysoparia ), an endangered wood-warbler, breed exclusively in woodlands co-dominated by Ashe juniper ( Juniperus ashei ) in central Texas. Their breeding range is becoming increasingly urbanized and habitat loss and fragmentation are a main threat to the species’ viability. Objectives We investigated the effects of remotely sensed local habitat and landscape attributes on point occupancy and density of warblers in an urban preserve and produced a spatially explicit density map for the preserve using model-supported relationships. Methods We conducted 1507 point-count surveys during spring 2011–2014 across Balcones Canyonlands Preserve (BCP) to evaluate warbler habitat associations and predict density of males. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate multiple components of detection probability and evaluate covariate effects on detection probability, point occupancy, and density. Results Point occupancy was positively related to landscape forest cover and local canopy cover; mean occupancy was 0.83. Density was influenced more by local than landscape factors. Density increased with greater amounts of juniper and mixed forest and decreased with more open edge. There was a weak negative relationship between density and landscape urban land cover. Conclusions Landscape composition and habitat structure were important determinants of warbler occupancy and density, and the large intact patches of juniper and mixed forest on BCP (>2100 ha) supported a high density of warblers. Increasing urbanization and fragmentation in the surrounding landscape will likely result in lower breeding density due to loss of juniper and mixed forest and increasing urban land cover and edge.
A hierarchical model combining distance sampling and time removal to estimate detection probability during avian point counts
Imperfect detection during animal surveys biases estimates of abundance and can lead to improper conclusions regarding distribution and population trends. Farnsworth et al. (2005) developed a combined distance-sampling and time-removal model for point-transect surveys that addresses both availability (the probability that an animal is available for detection; e.g., that a bird sings) and perceptibility (the probability that an observer detects an animal, given that it is available for detection). We developed a hierarchical extension of the combined model that provides an integrated analysis framework for a collection of survey points at which both distance from the observer and time of initial detection are recorded. Implemented in a Bayesian framework, this extension facilitates evaluating covariates on abundance and detection probability, incorporating excess zero counts (i.e. zero-inflation), accounting for spatial autocorrelation, and estimating population density. Species-specific characteristics, such as behavioral displays and territorial dispersion, may lead to different patterns of availability and perceptibility, which may, in turn, influence the performance of such hierarchical models. Therefore, we first test our proposed model using simulated data under different scenarios of availability and perceptibility. We then illustrate its performance with empirical point-transect data for a songbird that consistently produces loud, frequent, primarily auditory signals, the Golden-crowned Sparrow ( Zonotrichia atricapilla ); and for 2 ptarmigan species ( Lagopus spp.) that produce more intermittent, subtle, and primarily visual cues. Data were collected by multiple observers along point transects across a broad landscape in southwest Alaska, so we evaluated point-level covariates on perceptibility (observer and habitat), availability (date within season and time of day), and abundance (habitat, elevation, and slope), and included a nested point-within-transect and park-level effect. Our results suggest that this model can provide insight into the detection process during avian surveys and reduce bias in estimates of relative abundance but is best applied to surveys of species with greater availability (e.g., breeding songbirds).
A multiscale assessment of tree avoidance by prairie birds
In North America, grassland bird abundances have declined, likely as a result of loss and degradation of prairie habitat. Given the expense and limited opportunity to procure new grasslands, managers are increasingly focusing on ways to improve existing habitat for grassland birds, using techniques such as tree removal. To examine the potential for tree removal to benefit grassland birds, we conducted 446 point counts on 35 grassland habitat patches in the highly fragmented landscape of west-central Minnesota during 2009–2011. We modeled density of four grassland bird species in relation to habitat composition at multiple scales, focusing on covariates that described grass, woody vegetation (trees and large shrubs), or combinations of grass and woody vegetation. The best-supported models for all four grassland bird species incorporated variables measured at multiple scales, including local features such as grass height, litter depth, and local tree abundance, as well as landscape-level measures of grass and tree cover. Savannah Sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), Sedge Wrens ( Cistothorus platensis ), and Bobolinks ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ) responded consistently and negatively to woody vegetation, but response to litter depth, grass height, and grassland extent were mixed among species. Our results suggest that reducing shrub and tree cover is more likely to increase the density of grassland birds than are attempts to improve grass quality or quantity. In particular, tree removal is more likely to increase density of Savannah Sparrows and Sedge Wrens than any reasonable changes in grass quality or quantity. Yet tree removal may not result in increased abundance of grassland birds if habitat composition is not considered at multiple scales. Managers will need to either manage at large scales (80–300 ha) or focus their efforts on removing trees in landscapes that contain some grasslands but few nearby wooded areas.
Using sightability-adjusted brood-pair ratios to estimate waterfowl productivity
Historically, biologists used brood-pair ratios (BPRs) as an index to waterfowl productivity to help guide management decisions and evaluate conservation practices. However, BPRs are biased by imperfect detection probabilities, especially for broods. We conducted roadside surveys for breeding waterfowl pairs on 7–8 study sites in the springs of 2006–2008 in northeastern North Dakota, USA. Later each year, we conducted replicate counts of broods on the same wetlands and used mark–recapture methods to estimate sightability-adjusted BPRs (SA-BPRs). Traditional roadside brood surveys detected only 30–45% of the available broods, depending on species. We explored the potential for using SA-BPRs to measure hen success (i.e., the probability a female hatches ≥1 egg across all nesting attempts) for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and other upland-nesting dabbling ducks (Anas spp.). We found that SA-BPRs explained 40% of the variation in hen success over 5 species of dabbling ducks, and we were able to detect an effect of predator reduction on hen success in combined dabblers, but not in mallards alone. However, we found no relationship between SA-BPRs and mallard fledging rates (hen success × initial brood size × duckling survival). Our results suggest that SA-BPRs can provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional measures of productivity such as nesting success, but not to measures of duckling survival. Nevertheless, SA-BPRs may be useful in areas where traditional measures of waterfowl productivity are logistically or financially challenging.