Geology topics
Claire Welty
Publications and source records attributed to Claire Welty.
Transport and fate of microbial pathogens in agricultural settings
An understanding of the transport and survival of microbial pathogens (pathogens hereafter) in agricultural settings is needed to assess the risk of pathogen contamination to water and food resources, and to develop control strategies and treatment options. However, many knowledge gaps still remain in predicting the fate and transport of pathogens in runoff water, and then through the shallow vadose zone and groundwater. A number of transport pathways, processes, factors, and mathematical models often are needed to describe pathogen fate in agricultural settings. The level of complexity is dramatically enhanced by soil heterogeneity, as well as by temporal variability in temperature, water inputs, and pathogen sources. There is substantial variability in pathogen migration pathways, leading to changes in the dominant processes that control pathogen transport over different spatial and temporal scales. For example, intense rainfall events can generate runoff and preferential flow that can rapidly transport pathogens. Pathogens that survive for extended periods of time have a greatly enhanced probability of remaining viable when subjected to such rapid-transport events. Conversely, in dry seasons, pathogen transport depends more strongly on retention at diverse environmental surfaces controlled by a multitude of coupled physical, chemical, and microbiological factors. These interactions are incompletely characterized, leading to a lack of consensus on the proper mathematical framework to model pathogen transport even at the column scale. In addition, little is known about how to quantify transport and survival parameters at the scale of agricultural fields or watersheds. This review summarizes current conceptual and quantitative models for pathogen transport and fate in agricultural settings over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The authors also discuss the benefits that can be realized by improved modeling, and potential treatments to mitigate the risk of waterborne disease transmission.
Revisiting the cape cod bacteria injection experiment using a stochastic modeling approach
Bromide and resting-cell bacteria tracer tests conducted in a sandy aquifer at the U.S. Geological Survey Cape Cod site in 1987 were reinterpreted using a three-dimensional stochastic approach. Bacteria transport was coupled to colloid filtration theory through functional dependence of local-scale colloid transport parameters upon hydraulic conductivity and seepage velocity in a stochastic advection - dispersion/attachment - detachment model. Geostatistical information on the hydraulic conductivity (K) field that was unavailable at the time of the original test was utilized as input. Using geostatistical parameters, a groundwater flow and particle-tracking model of conservative solute transport was calibrated to the bromide-tracer breakthrough data. An optimization routine was employed over 100 realizations to adjust the mean and variance ofthe natural-logarithm of hydraulic conductivity (InK) field to achieve best fit of a simulated, average bromide breakthrough curve. A stochastic particle-tracking model for the bacteria was run without adjustments to the local-scale colloid transport parameters. Good predictions of mean bacteria breakthrough were achieved using several approaches for modeling components of the system. Simulations incorporating the recent Tufenkji and Elimelech (Environ. Sci. Technol. 2004, 38, 529-536) correlation equation for estimating single collector efficiency were compared to those using the older Rajagopalan and Tien (AIChE J. 1976, 22, 523-533) model. Both appeared to work equally well at predicting mean bacteria breakthrough using a constant mean bacteria diameter for this set of field conditions. Simulations using a distribution of bacterial cell diameters available from original field notes yielded a slight improvement in the model and data agreement compared to simulations using an average bacterial diameter. The stochastic approach based on estimates of local-scale parameters for the bacteria-transport process reasonably captured the mean bacteria transport behavior and calculated an envelope of uncertainty that bracketed the observations in most simulation cases.
Stochastic analysis of transverse dispersion in density‐coupled transport in aquifers
Spectral perturbation techniques have been used previously to derive integral expressions for dispersive mixing in concentration‐dependent transport in three‐dimensional, heterogeneous porous media, where fluid density and viscosity are functions of solute concentration. Whereas earlier work focused on evaluating longitudinal dispersivity in isotropic media and incorporating the result in a mean one‐dimensional transport model, the emphasis of this paper is on evaluation of the complete dispersion tensor, including the more general case of anisotropic media. Approximate analytic expressions for all components of the macroscopic dispersivity tensor are derived, and the tensor is shown to be asymmetric. The tensor is separated into its symmetric and antisymmetric parts, where the symmetric part is used to calculate the principal components and principal directions of dispersivity, and the antisymmetric part of the tensor is shown to modify the velocity of the solute body compared to that of the background fluid. An example set of numerical simulations incorporating the tensor illustrates the effect of density‐coupled dispersivity on a sinking plume in an aquifer. The simulations show that the effective transverse vertical spreading in a sinking plume to be significantly greater than would be predicted by a standard density‐coupled transport model that does not incorporate the coupling in the dispersivity tensor.
Stochastic analysis of virus transport in aquifers
A large-scale model of virus transport in aquifers is derived using spectral perturbation analysis. The effects of spatial variability in aquifer hydraulic conductivity and virus transport (attachment, detachment, and inactivation) parameters on large-scale virus transport are evaluated. A stochastic mean model of virus transport is developed by linking a simple system of local-scale free-virus transport and attached-virus conservation equations from the current literature with a random-field representation of aquifer and virus transport properties. The resultant mean equations for free and attached viruses are found to differ considerably from the local-scale equations on which they are based and include effects such as a free-virus effective velocity that is a function of aquifer heterogeneity as well as virus transport parameters. Stochastic mean free-virus breakthrough curves are compared with local model output in order to observe the effects of spatial variability on mean one-dimensional virus transport in three-dimensionally heterogeneous porous media. Significant findings from this theoretical analysis include the following: (1) Stochastic model breakthrough occurs earlier than local model breakthrough, and this effect is most pronounced for the least conductive aquifers studied. (2) A high degree of aquifer heterogeneity can lead to virus breakthrough actually preceding that of a conservative tracer. (3) As the mean hydraulic conductivity is increased, the mean model shows less sensitivity to the variance of the natural-logarithm hydraulic conductivity and mean virus diameter. (4) Incorporation of a heterogeneous colloid filtration term results in higher predicted concentrations than a simple first-order adsorption term for a given mean attachment rate. (5) Incorporation of aquifer heterogeneity leads to a greater range of virus diameters for which significant breakthrough occurs. (6) The mean model is more sensitive to the inactivation rate of viruses associated with solid surfaces than to the inactivation rate of viruses in solution.