Geology topics

Christine A. Buckel

Publications and source records attributed to Christine A. Buckel.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Forecasting marsh resilience in the Plum Island Estuary: Integrating uncertainty to inform coastal management

Salt marshes provide critical ecosystem services yet face increasing threats from accelerated relative sea-level rise (SLR). The long-term persistence of these habitats depends on their ability to vertically accrete and laterally migrate into adjacent uplands. Predicting the location and viability of these future marsh corridors is therefore a primary challenge for coastal managers; one often hindered by uncertainties in future water levels and topographic data accuracy, particularly in vegetated wetlands where light detection and ranging (lidar) data systematically overestimate elevation. This study applies an uncertainty-informed modeling framework to forecast marsh resilience in the Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts. We integrated the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) with a Monte Carlo error analysis, generating an ensemble of bias-corrected digital elevation models (DEMs) alongside three probabilistic SLR scenarios (Intermediate, Intermediate High, High) through 2100. We synthesized these simulations into a “marsh fate” classification map to distinguish between resilient core habitats, vulnerable zones requiring intervention, and likely migration corridors. While the marsh platform exhibits resilience under Intermediate scenarios, a critical tipping point emerges under the High SLR scenario. In this case, accelerating inundation overwhelms accretion capacities, driving a landscape-scale regime shift. By integrating the interacting uncertainties of SLR trajectories and initial marsh elevation, we project 2100 net marsh coverage outcomes ranging from a 10.5% gain to a 23.2% loss. These results demonstrate that incorporating elevation uncertainty is essential for detecting non-linear threshold behaviors that deterministic models often miss. The resulting framework empowers managers with a spatially explicit tool to prioritize land acquisition and restoration efforts in the face of climate uncertainty.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2026

Challenges and opportunities for national-scale projections of future coastal landscape change

Local to global scale projections of future coastal landscape change are essential to improve land and resource management decisions that aim to prepare for and reduce risk exposure to impending coastal hazards. However, the availability of actionable knowledge is often limited due to the complexity of drivers of change, their consequences, and uncertainties that span disciplines. Varying spatial and temporal scales of physical processes that occur on landscapes with differing levels of coastal development and modification complicate decision-making. This paper reviews advances in observational approaches, modeling, and quantification of uncertainty to support the next generation of coastal change projections. We also highlight transdisciplinary opportunities for making this information more accessible and useful to support decision-making in the coastal zone. This includes consideration of different levels of user engagement to address specific needs, as well as resources and mechanisms that can support knowledge transfer broadly. A central recommendation is the development of a coordinated framework to support research integration including three components: accounting for relevant drivers, processes, and feedbacks; working with users to identify their information needs; and generating meaningful projections and uncertainty. Actions that would support such frameworks include the evaluation of models through coordinated research approaches and multi-model comparisons; ongoing investments in observations and data-driven approaches necessary to understand this complex environment; expansion of modeling capabilities using novel techniques; prioritization of co-development efforts between researchers and users; and continued training and support for transdisciplinary research.

Alaska, California, Florida, New York↗

USGS2014

Invasion of Asian tiger shrimp, Penaeus monodon Fabricius, 1798, in the western north Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

After going unreported in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean for 18 years (1988 to 2006), the Asian tiger shrimp, Penaeus monodon , has recently reappeared in the South Atlantic Bight and, for the first time ever, in the Gulf of Mexico. Potential vectors and sources of this recent invader include: 1) discharged ballast water from its native range in Asia or other areas where it has become established; 2) transport of larvae from established non-native populations in the Caribbean or South America via ocean currents; or 3) escape and subsequent migration from active aquaculture facilities in the western Atlantic. This paper documents recent collections of P. monodon from the South Atlantic Bight and the Gulf of Mexico, reporting demographic and preliminary phylogenetic information for specimens collected between North Carolina and Texas from 2006 through 2012. The increased number of reports in 2011 and 2012, ranging from 102 mm to 298 mm total length, indicates that an adult population is present in densities sufficient for breeding, which is indicative of incipient establishment. Based on these reports of P. monodon , its successful invasion elsewhere, and its life history, we believe that this species will become common in the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico in less than 10 years. Penaeus monodon is an aggressive predator in its native range and, if established, may prey on native shrimps, crabs, and bivalves. The impacts of an established P. monodon population are potentially widespread (e.g., alterations in local commercial fisheries, direct and indirect pressures on native shrimp, crab and bivalve populations, and subsequent impacts on the populations of other predators of those organisms) and should be considered by resource managers. The impacts of P. monodon on native fauna and the source(s) or vector(s) of the invasion, however, remain unknown at this time.

Atlantic Ocean;Gulf Of Mexico;South Atlantic Bight↗