Geology topics

Christina M. Romagosa

Publications and source records attributed to Christina M. Romagosa.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Optimal control of an invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model and linear programming

Managing an invasive species is particularly challenging as little is generally known about the species’ biological characteristics in its new habitat. In practice, removal of individuals often starts before the species is studied to provide the information that will later improve control. Therefore, the locations and the amount of control have to be determined in the face of great uncertainty about the species characteristics and with a limited amount of resources. We propose framing spatial control as a linear programming optimization problem. This formulation, paired with a discrete reaction-diffusion model, permits calculation of an optimal control strategy that minimizes the remaining number of invaders for a fixed cost or that minimizes the control cost for containment or protecting specific areas from invasion. We propose computing the optimal strategy for a range of possible model parameters, representing current uncertainty on the possible invasion scenarios. Then, a best strategy can be identified depending on the risk attitude of the decision-maker. We use this framework to study the spatial control of the Argentine black and white tegus ( Salvator merianae ) in South Florida. There is uncertainty about tegu demography and we considered several combinations of model parameters, exhibiting various dynamics of invasion. For a fixed one-year budget, we show that the risk-averse strategy, which optimizes the worst-case scenario of tegus’ dynamics, and the risk-neutral strategy, which optimizes the expected scenario, both concentrated control close to the point of introduction. A risk-seeking strategy, which optimizes the best-case scenario, focuses more on models where eradication of the species in a cell is possible and consists of spreading control as much as possible. For the establishment of a containment area, assuming an exponential growth we show that with current control methods it might not be possible to implement such a strategy for some of the models that we considered. Including different possible models allows an examination of how the strategy is expected to perform in different scenarios. Then, a strategy that accounts for the risk attitude of the decision-maker can be designed.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Spatially explicit control of invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model

Invasive species, which can be responsible for severe economic and environmental damages, must often be managed over a wide area with limited resources, and the optimal allocation of effort in space and time can be challenging. If the spatial range of the invasive species is large, control actions might be applied only on some parcels of land, for example because of property type, accessibility, or limited human resources. Selecting the locations for control is critical and can significantly impact management efficiency. To help make decisions concerning the spatial allocation of control actions, we propose a simulation based approach, where the spatial distribution of the invader is approximated by a reaction–diffusion model. We extend the classic Fisher equation to incorporate the effect of control both in the diffusion and local growth of the invader. The modified reaction–diffusion model that we propose accounts for the effect of control, not only on the controlled locations, but on neighboring locations, which are based on the theoretical speed of the invasion front. Based on simulated examples, we show the superiority of our model compared to the state-of-the-art approach. We illustrate the use of this model for the management of Burmese pythons in the Everglades (Florida, USA). Thanks to the generality of the modified reaction–diffusion model, this framework is potentially suitable for a wide class of management problems and provides a tool for managers to predict the effects of different management strategies.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2012

Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park

Invasive species represent a significant threat to global biodiversity and a substantial economic burden. Burmese pythons, giant constricting snakes native to Asia, now are found throughout much of southern Florida, including all of Everglades National Park (ENP). Pythons have increased dramatically in both abundance and geographic range since 2000 and consume a wide variety of mammals and birds. Here we report severe apparent declines in mammal populations that coincide temporally and spatially with the proliferation of pythons in ENP. Before 2000, mammals were encountered frequently during nocturnal road surveys within ENP. In contrast, road surveys totaling 56,971 km from 2003–2011 documented a 99.3% decrease in the frequency of raccoon observations, decreases of 98.9% and 87.5% for opossum and bobcat observations, respectively, and failed to detect rabbits. Road surveys also revealed that these species are more common in areas where pythons have been discovered only recently and are most abundant outside the python's current introduced range. These findings suggest that predation by pythons has resulted in dramatic declines in mammals within ENP and that introduced apex predators, such as giant constrictors, can exert significant top-down pressure on prey populations. Severe declines in easily observed and/or common mammals, such as raccoons and bobcats, bode poorly for species of conservation concern, which often are more difficult to sample and occur at lower densities.

Florida↗