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Geology topics

Christina L. Tague

Publications and source records attributed to Christina L. Tague.

5 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2018

Before the storm: Antecedent conditions as regulators of hydrologic and biogeochemical response to extreme climate events

While the influence of antecedent conditions on watershed function is widely recognized under typical hydrologic regimes, gaps remain in the context of extreme climate events (ECEs). ECEs are those events that far exceed seasonal norms of intensity, duration, or impact upon the physical environment or ecosystem. In this synthesis, we discuss the role of source availability and hydrologic connectivity on antecedent conditions and propose a conceptual framework to characterize system response to ECEs at the watershed scale. We present four case studies in detail that span a range of types of antecedent conditions and type of ECE to highlight important controls and feedbacks. Because ECEs have the potential to export large amounts of water and materials, their occurrence in sequence can disproportionately amplify the response. In fact, multiple events may not be considered extreme in isolation, but when they occur in close sequence they may lead to extreme responses in terms of both supply and transport capacity. Therefore, to advance our understanding of these complexities, we need continued development of a mechanistic understanding of how antecedent conditions set the stage for ECE response across multiple regions and climates, particularly since monitoring of these rare events is costly and difficult to obtain. Through focused monitoring of critical ecosystems during rare events we will also be able to extend and validate modeling studies. Cross-regional comparisons are also needed to define characteristics of resilient systems. These monitoring, modeling, and synthesis efforts are more critical than ever in light of changing climate regimes, intensification of human modifications of the landscape, and the disproportionate impact of ECEs in highly populated regions.

Biogeochemistry↗
USGS2015

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects – bark beetles and defoliators – which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree–insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2013

An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains

Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

Jemez Mountains, Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2013

Watering the forest for the trees: An emerging priority for managing water in forest landscapes

Widespread threats to forests resulting from drought stress are prompting a re-evaluation of priorities for water management on forest lands. In contrast to the widely held view that forest management should emphasize providing water for downstream uses, we argue that maintaining forest health in the context of a changing climate may require focusing on the forests themselves and on strategies to reduce their vulnerability to increasing water stress. Management strategies would need to be tailored to specific landscapes but could include thinning, planting and selecting for drought-tolerant species, irrigating, and making more water available to plants for transpiration. Hydrologic modeling reveals that specific management actions could reduce tree mortality due to drought stress. Adopting water conservation for vegetation as a priority for managing water on forested lands would represent a fundamental change in perspective and potentially involve trade-offs with other downstream uses of water.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗