Geology topics

Chris Farmer

Publications and source records attributed to Chris Farmer.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Fine-grained temporal population monitoring of a declining, critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

Annual point counts are commonly used to monitor birds to track population densities across space and time. Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are surveyed annually in the first quarter, but we recently instituted quarterly sampling that offers a unique opportunity to improve estimator precision. We conducted point-transect distance sampling point counts during the first quarter of 2020 through 2024, and the second through fourth quarters in 2022 and 2023, and the second quarter in 2024. The reduced sampling intensity during the quarterly counts, however, requires model-based methods to estimate abundance to the entire sampling frame. We modeled spatial and temporal correlation using a soap film smoother within a generalized additive modeling framework, a density surface model, fitted to palila counts each quarter for the five-year timeseries to track changes in population abundances. Our results indicate that palila maintained a high-density hotspot throughout the five-year timeseries; however, the extent of the hotspot declined substantially over the timeseries while densities within the hotspot declined from about 3 birds/ha in 2020 to about 1 bird/ha in 2024, which resulted in a 66% decline in palila abundances over 5 years. Density surface model estimates give on average a confidence interval width that was 74.7% shorter than the associated distance sampling confidence interval widths. Our results indicate that palila may benefit most if management actions were applied within the remaining hotspot. Additionally, this temporally fine-grained sampling provides information on seasonal movement patterns and resource tracking, and population response to management and conservation actions. Our spatially explicit, model-based approach is applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs, particularly those with inconsistent, opportunistic spatial coverage.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Nihoa and Laysan Island passerines population abundances, trends, and habitat utilization

Nihoa and Laysan Island, part of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, are host to three endangered passerine species—Nihoa finch (Telespiza ultima), Nihoa millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi), and Laysan finch (Telespiza cantans). Using point-transect distance sampling survey records from 2010 to 2022 for Nihoa and 2013 to 2019 for Laysan Island, we estimated the density and abundance of all three species. We also compared densities between habitats for both islands, classifying Nihoa habitat as Eragrostis (grass) or mixed shrub and Laysan Island as open or dense habitat. The population of Nihoa finch remained stable with slight fluctuations among years, with a population size of 6,592 (4,954–8,655) birds for the most recent sampling year, 2022. Laysan finch also remained stable with a total population in both dense and open habitat of 17,657 (11,994–23,320) for the most recent sampling year, 2019. The Nihoa millerbird significantly increased on both Nihoa and Laysan Island with a global population of 1,907 (1,291–2,766) in 2019, the most recent year both islands were sampled. Overall, the populations of these three endangered species were stable or increasing. The increase of Nihoa millerbird on Laysan Island, after being translocated to the island in 2011 and 2012, represents the successful establishment of a second viable population, leading to a decrease in the species’ IUCN extinction risk status (from critically endangered to endangered). Continued population monitoring of these endangered species can help inform future management actions and ensure their preservation into the future.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Evaluation of replicate sampling using hierarchical spatial modeling of population surveys accounting for imperfect detectability

Effective species management and conservation benefit from knowledge of species distribution and status. Surveys to obtain that information often involve replicate sampling, which increases survey effort and costs. We simultaneously modeled species distribution, abundance and spatial correlation, and compared the uncertainty in replicate abundance estimates of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) using hierarchical generalized additive models with a soap film smoother that incorporated random effects for visit. Based on survey coverage and detections, we selected the 2017 point-transect distance sampling survey on Mauna Kea, Hawai‘i Island, for our modeling. Our modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detections, control the effects of boundary features, and generate visit-specific density surface maps. We found that visit-specific smooths were nearly identical, indicating that little information was gained from a subsequent visit, and that most of the estimator uncertainty was derived from within-visit variability. Scaling back the palila survey to a single visit would halve the survey effort and logistical costs and increase efficiencies in data management and processing. Changing the sampling protocol warrants careful consideration and our findings may help management and regulatory agencies by maximizing efficiency and minimizing costs of surveying protocols, while providing guidelines on how to best collect information critical to species' conservation.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2022

Density surface and excursion sets modeling as an approach to estimating population densities

Effective species management and conservation require knowledge of species distribution and status. We used point-transect distance sampling surveys of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a honeycreeper currently found only on the Island of Hawai'i, USA, to generate robust estimates of total abundance and simultaneously model the distribution, abundance, and spatial correlation of the species as a density surface model (DSM). Point-transect distance sampling is a widely applied method to estimate bird densities accounting for imperfect detection probability. For the DSM we used a generalized additive model framework and soap film smoothers to control the effects of boundary features. This modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detection and propagate detection probability uncertainty. We compared the uncertainty in palila abundance estimates using standard point-transect distance sampling to estimates from the DSM. The DSM, accounting for both distance-sampling-derived detection probability variance and the generalized additive model density estimate variance, did not improve population estimator precision; however, it provided insight into the species' distribution, density, and uncertainty. We also applied excursion sets analysis to objectively identify areas where the species occurs in high densities. The 2017 global population of <2,000 individuals was limited to an excursion area of 1,500 ha. Our findings can help management and regulatory agencies by simultaneously mapping a species' distribution and density, improving survey protocols, and providing information important to species conservation.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale ( < "> < 50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale ( < "> < 3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio > "> > 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Evaluating the long-term management of introduced ungulates to protect the palila, an endangered bird, and its criticial habitat in subalpine forest of Mauna Kea, Hawai'i

Under the multiple-use paradigm, conflicts may arise when protection of an endangered species must compete with other management objectives. To resolve such a conflict in the Critical Habitat of the endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper, palila (Loxioides bailleui), federal courts ordered the eradication of introduced ungulates responsible for damaging the māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) forest on which palila depend. During 1980–2011, a total of 18,130 sheep (Ovis aries and O. gmelini musimon) and 310 goats (Capra hircus) were removed from Palila Critical Habitat (PCH) primarily by public hunters (54%) and secondarily by aerial shooting. Nevertheless, our analysis indicates that ungulates have increased over time. Palila numbers have declined sharply since 2003 due to long-term habitat degradation by ungulates and drought. Although culling ungulate populations has allowed some habitat improvement, their complete removal is necessary for palila to recover, especially given the potential for continued drought. Introduced predators are being controlled to reduce palila mortality, māmane and other native trees are being planted to restore some areas, and fencing is being constructed to prevent ungulate immigration. Funds are recently available for more effective eradication efforts, which are urgently needed to eliminate browsing damage in PCH and protect the palila from extinction.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Long-distance translocations to create a second millerbird population and reduce extinction risk

Translocation is a conservation tool used with increasing frequency to create additional populations of threatened species. In addition to following established general guidelines for translocations, detailed planning to account for unique circumstances and intensive post-release monitoring to document outcomes and guide management are essential components of these projects. Recent translocation of the critically endangered Nihoa millerbird ( Acrocephalus familiaris kingi ) provides an example of this planning and monitoring. The Nihoa millerbird is a passerine bird endemic to Nihoa Island in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The closely related, ecologically similar Laysan millerbird ( Acrocephalus familiaris familiaris ) went extinct on Laysan Island in the early 20th century when the island was denuded by introduced rabbits. To reduce extinction risk, we translocated 50 adult Nihoa millerbirds more than 1000 km by sea to Laysan, which has recovered substantially in the past century and has ample habitat and a rich prey-base for millerbirds. Following five years of intensive background research and planning, including development of husbandry techniques, fundraising, and regulatory compliance, translocations occurred in 2011 and 2012. Of 11 females in each cohort, 8 (2011 cohort) and 11 (2012 cohort) produced at least one brood of fledglings during their first year on Laysan. At the conclusion of monitoring in September 2014, 37 of the translocated birds were known to survive, and the population was estimated at 164 birds. The reintroduction of millerbirds to Laysan represents a milestone in the island's ongoing restoration.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird ( Acrocephalus familiaris kingi ) and Nihoa Finch ( Telespiza ultima )—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2015

Palila Restoration Research, 1996−2012. Summary and management implications

The Palila Restoration Project was initiated in 1996 by the U.S. Geological Survey to assist government agencies mitigate the effects of realigning Saddle Road (Highway 200) through Palila Critical Habitat (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1998, Federal Highway Administration 1999). Ecological research on the palila (Loxioides bailleui), an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly organized as the Research Division of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) since 1987 and research conducted by the Palila Restoration Project provided the scientific bases for developing a recovery strategy (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2006) and its adaptive implementation. The main objectives of the Palila Restoration Project were to develop techniques for reintroducing the palila to a portion of its former range, investigate the biological threats to the palila and its habitat, and synthesize the existing body of ecological knowledge concerning the palila. Five broad study themes formed the research framework: 1. Population reintroduction and restoration 2. Demography and breeding ecology 3. Habitat use and food ecology 4. Vegetation ecology 5. Predator ecology and management An element that was not included in the research program of the project was the ecology and management of introduced ungulates, which has historically constituted the single greatest threat to Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009). The absence of ungulate studies should not be interpreted to mean that we believe ungulates no longer damage palila habitat. Other research has already established that removing alien browsers and grazers from Mauna Kea is essential for the recovery of the subalpine forest on which palila now depend (Scowcroft and Giffin 1983; Scowcroft and Sakai 1983; Scowcroft and Conrad 1988, 1992; Hess et al. 1999). Moreover, the Federal District Court of Hawai‘i has ordered the State of Hawai‘i to remove browsing ungulates from Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009, Hess and Banko 2011). This final report summarizes results of Palila Restoration Project research from December 1996 to December 2012. Even though some results contained in this report have been published in scientific journals and other technical reports (Appendix I), they are included here to provide a comprehensive chronicle of all project activities.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Palila restoration research, 1996−2012

The Palila Restoration Project was initiated in 1996 by the U.S. Geological Survey to assist government agencies mitigate the effects of realigning Saddle Road (Highway 200) through Palila Critical Habitat (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1998, Federal Highway Administration 1999). Ecological research on the palila (Loxioides bailleui), an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly organized as the Research Division of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) since 1987 and research conducted by the Palila Restoration Project provided the scientific bases for developing a recovery strategy (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2006) and its adaptive implementation. The main objectives of the Palila Restoration Project were to develop techniques for reintroducing the palila to a portion of its former range, investigate the biological threats to the palila and its habitat, and synthesize the existing body of ecological knowledge concerning the palila. Five broad study themes formed the research framework: 1. Population reintroduction and restoration 2. Demography and breeding ecology 3. Habitat use and food ecology 4. Vegetation ecology 5. Predator ecology and management An element that was not included in the research program of the project was the ecology and management of introduced ungulates, which has historically constituted the single greatest threat to Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009). The absence of ungulate studies should not be interpreted to mean that we believe ungulates no longer damage palila habitat. Other research has already established that removing alien browsers and grazers from Mauna Kea is essential for the recovery of the subalpine forest on which palila now depend (Scowcroft and Giffin 1983; Scowcroft and Sakai 1983; Scowcroft and Conrad 1988, 1992; Hess et al. 1999). Moreover, the Federal District Court of Hawai‘i has ordered the state of Hawai‘i to remove browsing ungulates from Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009, Hess and Banko 2011). This final report summarizes results of Palila Restoration Project research from December 1996 to December 2012. Even though some results contained in this report have been published in scientific journals and other technical reports (Appendix I), they are included here to provide a comprehensive chronicle of all project activities.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

Response of palila and other subalpine Hawaiian forest bird species to prolonged drought and habitat degradation by feral ungulates

Extinction has claimed half of all historically-known Hawaiian passerines, and today many extant species are increasingly threatened due to the combined effects of invasive species and climate change. Habitat disturbance has affected populations of feeding specialists most profoundly, and our results indicate that specialists continue to be most vulnerable, although even some abundant, introduced, generalist species also may be affected. Surveys of passerines during 1998–2011 in subalpine woodland habitat on Mauna Kea Volcano, Island of Hawai′i, revealed that the abundance of the critically endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a seed specialist, declined by 79% after 2003. The ′akiapōlā′au ( Hemignathus munroi ), an endangered specialist insectivore, was not detected in the survey area after 1998. The Hawai′i ′amakihi ( Hemignathus virens virens ), a generalist feeder and the most abundant species on Mauna Kea, was the only native species to maintain a stable population. The Japanese white-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), a well-entrenched generalist and one of the three most common introduced species, declined. Drought prevailed in 74% of months during 2000–2011, and dry conditions contributed to the recent decline of the palila by reducing the annual māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seed pod crop, which influences palila breeding and survival. Sustained browsing by introduced ungulates also lowered habitat carrying capacity, and their elimination should reduce the effects of drought and promote forest restoration. Our results illustrate how the feeding ecology of a species can influence its response to interacting environmental perturbations, and they underscore the value of long-term monitoring to detect population trends of sensitive species.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2012

Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

This report describes the results of a comparative study of bird survey methods undertaken for the purpose of improving assessments of the conservation status for the two endemic passerines on the Island of Nihoa—Nihoa Millerbird (Sylviidae: Acrocephalus familiaris kingi ) and Nihoa Finch (Fringilidae: Telespiza ultima ; also referred herein as millerbird and finch)—both listed as endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Hawai`i Revised Statutes 195D. The current survey protocol, implemented since 1967, has produced a highly variable range of counts for both the millerbird and finch, making difficult assessments of population size and trend. This report details the analyses of bird survey data collected in 2010 and 2011 in which three survey methods were compared―strip-transect, line-transect, and point-transect sampling―and provides recommendations for improved survey methods and protocols. Funding for this research was provided through a Science Support Partnership grant sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

Hawaii↗

USGS2010

Survival of feral cats, Felis catus (Carnivora: Felidae), on Mauna Kea, Hawai'i, based on tooth cementum lines

Feral cats ( Felis catus ) have spread throughout anthropogenic and insular environments of the world. They now threaten many species of native wildlife with chronic depredation. Knowledge of feral cat population dynamics is necessary to understand their ecological effects and to develop effective control strategies. However, there are few studies worldwide regarding annual or lifetime survival rates in remote systems, and none on Pacific islands. We constructed the age distribution and estimated survival of feral cats in a remote area of Hawai'i Island using cementum lines present in lower canine teeth. Our data suggest annual cementum line formation. A log-linear model estimated annual survival ≥ 1 yr of age to be 0.647. Relatively high survival coupled with high reproductive output allows individual cats to affect native wildlife for many years and cat populations to rebound quickly after control efforts.

Hawaii↗