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Cheryl A. Buchwald

Publications and source records attributed to Cheryl A. Buchwald.

15 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Harmonization of a water withdrawal dataset for the conterminous United States

The U.S. Geological Survey is developing nationally consistent water-use modeling approaches to replace previous methods relying on locally specific reported and estimated data. These national assessments require datasets that incorporate water withdrawal variability across the United States and over long periods. However, source data often have unclear definitions, missing or varied units, differing temporal resolutions, varied data quality, and inconsistent formats, which hinder automation and require individualized processing. The public-supply datasets described in this paper were used in machine learning models to estimate annual and monthly public-supply water use for 2000–2020 for the conterminous United States (CONUS) and in a model to estimate public-supply deliveries. Public-supply withdrawal data were acquired for the CONUS and the District of Columbia; however, 11 states had annual data for only 1 year, and 10 states had no monthly data. Annual withdrawal data were acquired for 81% of public-supply water service areas, and monthly withdrawal data were acquired for 47% for at least 1 year from 2000 to 2020. These datasets and methods provide the most comprehensive collection of reported public-supply withdrawals to date and can be used by water-use managers, the scientific community, and the broader public. The extensive data processing described herein can be applicable to datasets representing other categories of water use.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Public supply water delivery analysis and estimation for the conterminous United States

Public supply water withdrawals represent 14% of all withdrawals in the conterminous United States (CONUS), supplying approximately 87% of the population with fresh water. Deliveries for public water supply are crucial for associating water use amounts with populations because they often differ from total withdrawals due to wholesales, transfers, losses, and other factors. Understanding these differences helps identify the drivers for each type of delivery. The goal of this study was to compile all available public water supply delivery data for the CONUS and develop a data-driven model to estimate deliveries for all water service areas within the CONUS. Annual deliveries were estimated between 2010 and 2020, encompassing total water deliveries; combined commercial, industrial, and institutional deliveries (CII); and domestic deliveries. Data were compiled for 2,744 water service areas to produce the most comprehensive public water supply delivery data set for the CONUS to date. Three ensemble modeling approaches were developed to estimate total, CII, and domestic per capita (DPC) deliveries using a gradient boosted regression tree modeling approach. Estimates of daily domestic and CII per capita deliveries were generated from these models for approximately 18,800 water service areas, covering most public water systems in the CONUS. Domestic delivery was found to be lowest in the midwestern region and higher in the southern and southwest regions of the United States. Results indicate that climate and land use can be associated with regional differences in DPC delivery. Population metrics and land use were identified as significant contributors to CII delivery estimates.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

Data and knowledge gaps of a water bottling facility inventory and select water-use dataset, United States

In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a national inventory of water bottling facilities for the United States, including information about locations, water sources, water use, and a collection of other attributes. The purpose of the inventory was to provide information about water bottling facilities needed to assess and improve understanding of local-, regional-, and national-scale hydrologic and socioeconomic effects resulting from water extraction for bottling. Beverage types coded in the North American Industry Classification System under subsector 312 (Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing) were compiled; however, facility information was often not publicly available, time intensive to search manually, and difficult to verify because there are no nationally available facility lists. A separate evaluation of facilities in the Great Lakes region identified some facilities that were missing and some with incorrect information. Ancillary facility attributes were primarily available from a proprietary business dataset and water-use data could only be acquired for a small subset of facilities. These limitations and deficiencies may affect the types of analyses that can be done using the inventory information. Therefore, the following data-quality aspects are used to describe the information compiled in the facility and water-use tables: completeness, uniqueness, validity, timeliness, accuracy, consistency, and accessibility. The resulting implications of the data and knowledge gaps are that users of the data may need to make additional evaluations of the inventory information for some analyses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Next generation public supply water withdrawal estimation for the conterminous United States using machine learning and operational frameworks

Estimation of human water withdrawals is more important now than ever due to uncertain water supplies, population growth, and climate change. Fourteen percent of the total water withdrawal in the United States is used for public supply, typically including deliveries to domestic, commercial, and occasionally including industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric water withdrawal. Stewards of water resources in the USA require estimates of water withdrawals to manage and plan for future demands and sustainable water supplies. This study compiled the most comprehensive conterminous United States water withdrawal data set to date and developed a machine learning framework for estimating public supply withdrawals and associated uncertainty for the period 2000–2020. The modeling approach provides service area resolution estimates to allow for annual and monthly water withdrawal estimation while incorporating a complex array of driving factors that include hydroclimatic, demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and land use factors. Model results reveal highly variable and lognormally distributed per-capita water withdrawal, spanning from 30 to 650 gallons per capita per day (GPCD), across community, regional, and national scales, with pronounced seasonal variations. Analysis of estimated withdrawal trends indicates that the national annual average withdrawal experienced a decline at a rate of 0.58 GPCD/year during the period from 2000 to 2020. Model interpretation reveals a complex interplay between public supply withdrawal and key predictors, including population size, warm-season precipitation, counts of large buildings and houses, and areas of urban and commercial land use. The developed models can forecast future public supply driven by various climate, demographic, and socioeconomic scenarios.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

Development and evaluation of public-supply community water service area boundaries for the conterminous United States

The water service area dataset, derived from the National Boundary Dataset for public-supply water systems in the United States, offers a detailed resolution surpassing county-level assessments, emphasizing water-centric land use. Crucial for linking populations and infrastructure to system withdrawals, it supports the creation of a national public-supply water-use model, enhancing accuracy in estimating water use and distinguishing between publicly supplied and self-supplied domestic water use. Integrating tabular water system data strengthens the national water-use model by enabling tracking of withdrawal locations, source water, and water quality. Evaluated against U.S. Census-derived population datasets, 16 state-provided water service area datasets, and two national land use datasets, the study covers 22,849 community water systems, excluding most small systems serving fewer than 1000 people. Robust correlations between water service areas (WSAs) and satellite-sourced urban and exurban land use types facilitate tracking changes over time. A comparison of state and national datasets for population and WSAs reveals discrepancies ranging from 5% to 73% in state-level populations and 0% to 167% in state-level WSAs. Significant differences can be attributed to the exclusion of sizable incorporated and unincorporated areas in the state-based datasets. Additional comparisons of major metropolitan areas exhibit differences ranging from 2% to 56%.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2018

Hydrogeologic framework for characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States—A digital map compilation and database

The U.S. Geological Survey has created a hydrogeologic framework for Quaternary sediments in glaciated areas of the conterminous United States that categorizes, maps, and characterizes the glacial sediments at and beneath the land surface. The hydrogeologic framework divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping, and was characterized using the Glacial Environments and Surficial Sediments geodatabase compiled from the Quaternary Atlas of the United States map series, the Surficial Materials Map of the United States, and several Integrated Geologic Map Databases for the United States; a groundwater use database compiled from public-supply, water-well data; and a lithologic database compiled from State-managed well records and geologic logs. This framework is to be used to assess the occurrence and characteristics of confined and unconfined glacial aquifers, their distribution and extent, and their potential intrinsic susceptibility and vulnerability.

Data Series↗
USGS2018

Characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States

The glacial aquifer system, which is a collection of aquifers within Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States, is a principal aquifer that supplies groundwater that serves about 42 million people and accounts for about 5 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. This aquifer system (the area of maximum glacial advance) underlies parts of 25 States and covers 1.87×10 6 square kilometers. A hydrogeologic framework is presented that divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping. Each hydrogeologic terrane contains Quaternary sediment that is derived from a common depositional history and can be characterized by similar texture and thickness. Characteristics of Quaternary sediments are described using attributes computed from a lithologic database of well logs compiled from 24 States (excluding Kentucky). The hydrogeologic framework presents a nationwide picture of the glacial aquifer system and provides generalizations concerning the nature of aquifers within it (for example, whether the aquifers are shallow or deep, and unconfined or confined). In this way insights can be gained from understanding the similarities and differences in distinct parts of the glacial aquifer system and how they relate to water use and quality and to aquifer vulnerability. Delineation of hydrogeologic terranes was based on an interpretation of existing geologic mapping of Quaternary sediments and the thickness of unconsolidated material. Overall thickness of Quaternary sediment was used to qualitatively rank the generalized complexity of the hydrogeologic framework in each terrane: “lower” complexity (assigned a terrane code 1), “moderate” complexity (terrane code 2), and “higher” complexity (terrane code 3). Letter designations appended to the terrane codes (for example, 1A, 1B, or 1C) differentiate terranes of similar complexity. Two unique areas, where thick, stratified, coarse-grained sediment dominates, were assigned terrane code 4. Elements of this hydrogeologic framework include a glacial environments and surficial sediments geodatabase, which includes lithologic, geomorphic, and stratigraphic characterization of Quaternary sediments based on previous mapping; a gridded database of sediment and aquifer characteristics computed from lithologic logs obtained from water-well driller records; a water-use database with information on public-water supply systems and sources of groundwater; and estimated recharge computed from a geologically based soil-water balance model. A generalized map of the bedrock geology based on previous State-level mapping is included as well. Quaternary sediment in the glaciated United States includes glacial, postglacial (Holocene) and nonglacial sediments. At land surface, 60 percent of the glacial sediment is till. Large areas of outwash and ice contact sediments are extensive throughout the Midwest but generally are confined to valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lacustrine sediments were deposited in proglacial lakes adjacent to the present Great Lakes and in glacial Lake Agassiz in the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota. The median thickness of Quaternary sediment ranges from 6 to 45 meters across the 17 hydrogeologic terranes, but the maximum thickness is more than 500 meters in some areas. Quaternary sediments generally contain less than 10 percent coarse material; the median range is near zero percent under till to about 50 percent under ice contact and outwash sediments. About 80 percent of the coarse material lies within 25 to 40 meters of land surface. In most of the glaciated United States, there is a small likelihood of penetrating an aquifer-material interval containing coarse material at least 3 meters thick. A single aquifer-material interval was recorded in about 44 percent of lithologic logs, whereas about 11 percent of the logs penetrated multiple intervals. About 44 percent of water wells in the lithologic database are completed in Quaternary sediment, and many of these Quaternary water wells (42 percent) are confined by at least 7.5 meters of fine materials. About 33 percent of these Quaternary water wells are unconfined—the remainder are where only thin layers (less than 3 meters) of coarse material are present. The median depths of Quaternary water wells range from 13 to 40 meters among the 17 hydrogeologic terranes. Recharge ranges from more than 400 millimeters per year in the Northeast to 11 millimeters or less per year in the Dakotas and Montana (median value of 136 millimeters per year). Annual groundwater withdrawals compiled by county range on an areal basis from less than 1 to 370 millimeters per year, and the mean is 7.4 millimeters per year. About 36 percent of the withdrawals are for public-water supply, of which 70 percent are derived from Quaternary sediments. Groundwater withdrawals are less than 10 percent of recharge throughout most of the glaciated conterminous United States but are a larger proportion of recharge near urban areas in the Northeast and the Midwest, and in counties throughout drier parts of the Midwest. The salient characteristics of the 17 hydrogeologic terranes are presented through maps and a set of descriptive plots to facilitate visual comparisons between selected sediment and aquifer characteristics. The thickness of Quaternary sediment generally increases from the lower complexity terranes through the higher complexity terranes, consistent with their delineation. Median proportions of coarse material in Quaternary sediment and depths to aquifer-material intervals are highly variable (less than 10 to 50 percent, and 0 to 30 meters, respectively). Median thicknesses of aquifer-material intervals generally fall within a narrow range (10 to 20 meters), except in two terranes that contain thick coarse-grained sediment (30 to 35 meters). The source of water in wells varies from mostly bedrock wells in the lower complexity terranes to mostly Quaternary wells in the higher complexity terranes where the sediment is thickest. A tree diagram compiled from a hierarchical cluster analysis of a matrix composed of metrics based on sediment and aquifer characteristics, and the distribution of water wells in each terrane, indicates some groups of terranes that can be treated as comparable when analyzing groundwater flow and quality. Aquifer-material intervals indicated on maps prepared from the lithologic logs, including unconfined and confined conditions, correlate well with aquifer systems delineated on state maps for Illinois, Indiana, and North Dakota. The large scale of the study limits the resolution at which the maps can be interpreted, however, and alluvial units are not mapped correctly for some valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lithologic logs used in the study are biased toward shallow depths because not all logs penetrate the entire thickness of Quaternary sediment, but this bias should not limit the utility of the sediment and aquifer descriptions because shallow depths are commonly exploited for water supply. The hydrogeologic framework will support ongoing studies of groundwater flow and quality in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment program for the glaciated United States.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2017

Estimation of the groundwater resources of the bedrock aquifers at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin

Groundwater resources information was needed to understand regional aquifer systems and water available to wells and springs for rearing important Lake Michigan fish species at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. As a basis for estimating the groundwater resources available, an existing groundwater-flow model was refined, and new groundwater-flow models were developed for the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery area using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW. This report describes the origin and construction of these groundwater-flow models and their use in testing conceptual models and simulating the hydrogeologic system. The study area is in the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands geographical province of Wisconsin, and the hatchery property is situated on the southeastern edge of the Kettle Moraine, a north-south trending topographic high of glacial origin. The bedrock units underlying the study area consist of Cambrian, Ordovician, and Silurian units of carbonate and siliciclastic lithology. In the Sheboygan County area, the sedimentary bedrock sequence reaches a thickness of as much as about 1,600 feet (ft). Two aquifer systems are present at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. A shallow system is made up of Silurian bedrock, consisting chiefly of dolomite, overlain by unconsolidated Quaternary-age glacial deposits. The glacial deposits of this aquifer system are the typical source of water to local springs, including the springs that have historically supplied the hatchery. The shallow aquifer system, therefore, consists of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer and the underlying bedrock Silurian aquifer. Most residential wells in the area draw from the Silurian aquifer. A deeper confined aquifer system is made up of Cambrian- and Ordovician-age bedrock units including sandstone formations. Because of its depth, very few wells are completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system (COAS) near the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. Three groundwater-flow models were used to estimate the water resources available to the hatchery from bedrock aquifers under selected scenarios of well placement and seasonal water requirements and subject to constraints on the effects of pumping on neighboring wells, local springs, and creeks. Model input data (recharge, water withdrawal, and boundary conditions) for these models were compiled from a number of data and information sources. The first model, named the “KMS model,” (KMS stands for Kettle Moraine Springs) is an inset model derived from a published USGS regional Lake Michigan Basin model and was constructed to simulate groundwater pumping from the semiconfined Silurian aquifer. The second model, named the “Pumping Test model,” was constructed to evaluate an aquifer pumping test conducted in the COAS as part of this project. The Pumping Test model was also used to simulate the local effects of 20 years of groundwater pumping from this deep bedrock aquifer for future hatchery operations. The third model, named the “LMB modified model,” is a version of the published Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) model that was modified with aquifer parameters refined in an area around the hatchery (approximately a 5-mile radius circle, corresponding to the area stressed by the aquifer pumping test). This LMB modified model was applied to evaluate regional effects of pumping from the confined COAS. The available Silurian aquifer groundwater resource was estimated using the KMS model with three scenarios—named “AllConstraints,” “Constraints2,” and “Constraints3”—that specified local water-level and flow constraints such as drawdown at nearby household wells, water levels inside pumping well boreholes, and flow in local streams and springs. Each scenario utilized the MODFLOW Groundwater Management Process (GWM) to select three locations from six candidate locations that provided the greatest combined flow while satisfying the constraints. The three constraint scenarios provided estimates of 430 gallons per minute (gal/min), 480 gal/min, and 520 gal/min pumping from three wells—AllConstraints, Constraints2, and Constraints3, respectively. The same three wells were selected for the scenarios that estimated 480 gal/min and 520 gal/min; the scenario that estimated 430 gal/min shared two of these same wells, but the third selected well was different. The available COAS groundwater resource was estimated by two scenarios with each conducted over a period of 20 years with the Pumping Test model and the LMB modified model . The Pumping Test model was used to simulate local effects of pumping, and the LMB modified model was used to simulate regional effects of pumping. The scenarios simulate a range of total and seasonal pumping rates potentially linked to site activities. Scenario 1 simulates two wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, each pumping for 8 months at 300 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 600 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 1 is 800 gal/min. Scenario 2 simulates three wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system pumping for 8 months at 200 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 500 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 2 is 900 gal/min. The Pumping Test model simulations confirmed that drawdown in the boreholes of the pumping wells at the selected 2-well or 3-well rates will meet the desired condition that the pumping water level remains at least 100 ft above the highest Cambrian-Ordovician unit open to the well. The LMB modified model was used to evaluate the regional drawdown of the pumping from the confined COAS under the same 2-well and 3-well scenarios. At the nearest known existing COAS well, Campbellsport production well #4, the simulated drawdown for Scenario 1 after 20 years of cyclical pumping with two pumping wells averaging a total of 800 gal/min is 16.9 ft, whereas the simulated drawdown for Scenario 2 after 20 years of pumping with three pumping wells averaging a total of 900 gal/min is 19.0 ft. The total deep aquifer thickness at the Campbellsport location is on the order of 620 ft, meaning that the simulated drawdown for either scenario is about 3 percent of the confined aquifer thickness. The models developed as part of this project are archived in the project data release. The archive includes the model input and output files as well as MODFLOW source code and executables. ( Haserodt and others, 2017 ).

Wisconsin↗
USGS2015

Groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Bad River Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater-flow model was developed for the Bad River Watershed and surrounding area by using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state groundwater-flow and base flow in streams by using the streamflow routing (SFR) package. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system in the Bad River Watershed at the regional scale, including the sources of water to the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Reservation (Reservation) and groundwater/surface-water interactions; (2) provide a quantitative platform for evaluating future impacts to the watershed, which can be used as a starting point for more detailed investigations at the local scale; and (3) identify areas where more data are needed. This report describes the construction and calibration of the groundwater-flow model that was subsequently used for analyzing potential locations for the collection of additional field data, including new observations of water-table elevation for refining the conceptualization and corresponding numerical model of the hydrogeologic system. The study area can be conceptually divided into three primary hydrogeologic environments. The first encompasses the southern uplands with relatively low topographic relief, where groundwater-flow is unconfined and occurs primarily in sandy till and glacial outwash overlying Archean-aged crystalline bedrock. The second includes a transitional area of higher topographic relief and shallow depth to bedrock, in the vicinity of ridges formed by steeply dipping, early-Proterozoic aged metasedimentary units of the Marquette Range Supergroup (including the Ironwood Formation), and late-Proterozoic igneous units associated with the Midcontinent Rift System (MRS). Groundwater-flow in this area likely occurs primarily through connected networks of bedrock fractures that are not well characterized, and also in isolated pockets of Quaternary deposits. The third and last hydrogeologic environment includes lowlands along Lake Superior where a deep sandstone aquifer is confined by thick deposits of clay-rich till. Model input was compiled by using both published and unpublished data. Constant flux boundary conditions for the model perimeter were developed from a regional analytic element model described in appendix 1 of this report. Pumping from 26 high-capacity wells within the model area was included. The SFR stream network was developed from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Version 2) and hydrography from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR). Hydraulic conductivity values were determined for each model cell by interpolation from a network of pilot points, within zones representing major hydrogeologic units. Recharge to the groundwater system was estimated on a cell-by-cell basis by using the Soil Water Balance code (SWB), with gridded daily temperature and precipitation data for the period 1980–2011, and GIS coverages of soil and land-surface conditions. Estimated recharge varies considerably, following spatial patterns in the precipitation and soil hydrologic group inputs. The lowest recharge values occur in the Superior lowlands, whereas the highest values occur in the upland areas, especially those underlain by sandy soils, and in the vicinity of bedrock hills. The model was calibrated to groundwater-levels and base flows obtained from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database, and groundwater-levels obtained from the WDNR and Band River Band well-construction databases. Calibration was performed via nonlinear regression by using the parameter-estimation software suite PEST. Groundwater levels and base-flow observations in the calibration dataset were well simulated by the calibrated model, with reasonable values of hydraulic conductivity. The pilot-point parameters that were most constrained by observations during model calibration coincided with the locations containing the most wells (head observations)—especially the population centers of Ashland, Mellen, and other communities along the major highway corridors. Results from the calibrated model illustrate differences in the nature of groundwater-flow within the watershed. In the southern part of the watershed, where bedrock is shallow, groundwater flow paths are relatively short, extending from local recharge areas to adjacent first and second-order streams. In contrast, laterally continuous deposits of clay-rich till covering the Superior Lowlands isolate most smaller streams from the sandstone aquifer, allowing for longer flow paths toward larger streams such as the Bad, Marengo, and White Rivers. Approximately three-quarters of all first-order stream cells were dry in the Superior Lowlands, compared to only half of first-order stream cells in the southern bedrock uplands. The model was used to delineate the groundwatershed for the Bad and Kakagon Rivers. “Groundwatershed” is defined as the area contributing groundwater discharge to one of these streams and their tributaries. The groundwatershed was found to align closely with the surface-watershed, with the most notable exception occurring along the southwestern half of Birch Hill, where surface water drains southwest towards the Potato River, and groundwater flows north and east towards Lake Superior. Similarly, the contributing area of groundwater-flow to the Reservation was delineated. Results indicate the off-Reservation groundwater contributing area to be limited in comparison to the extent of the watershed, extending southward into the highlands underlain by MRS igneous rock units, but not further into the area underlain by the Marquette Range Supergroup. Stable isotope samples were collected from 54 wells within the watershed, to investigate sources of groundwater. Oxygen-18 (δ 18 O) values lower than -13.0 per mil were documented in the sampling, and likely indicate the presence of recharge water from the last glacial period (>9,500 years old) beneath the northern portion of the Reservation, in the vicinity of Odanah, Wisconsin. Finally, a new data-worth analysis of potential new monitoring-well locations was performed by using the model. The relative worth of new measurements was evaluated based on their ability to increase confidence in model predictions of groundwater levels and base flows at 35 locations, under the condition of a proposed open-pit iron mine. Results of the new data-worth analysis, and other inputs and outputs from the Bad River model, are available through an online dynamic web mapping service at ( http://wim.usgs.gov/badriver/ ).

Wisconsin↗
USGS2015

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change in Wisconsin

Expected climatic changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns across the State of Wisconsin may alter future stream temperature and flow regimes. As a consequence of flow and temperature changes, the composition and distribution of fish species assemblages are expected to change. In an effort to gain a better understanding of how climatic changes may affect stream temperature, an approach was developed to predict and project daily summertime stream temperature under current and future climate conditions for 94,341 stream kilometers across Wisconsin. The approach uses a combination of static landscape characteristics and dynamic time-series climatic variables as input for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model integrated with a Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) Model. Future climate scenarios are based on output from downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The SWB model provided a means to estimate the temporal variability in groundwater recharge and provided a mechanism to evaluate the effect of changing air temperature and precipitation on groundwater recharge and soil moisture. The Integrated Soil-Water-Balance and Artificial Neural Network version 1 (SWB-ANNv1) Model was used to simulate daily summertime stream temperature under current (1990–2008) climate and explained 76 percent of the variation in the daily mean based on validation at 67 independent sites. Results were summarized as July mean water temperature, and individual stream segments were classified by thermal class (cold, cold transition, warm transition, and warm) for comparison of current (1990–2008) with future climate conditions. Integrating the SWB Model with the ANN Model provided a mechanism by which downscaled global or regional climate model results could be used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on future stream temperature on a daily time step. To address future climate scenarios, statistically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from 10 GCMs and 2 time periods were used with the SWB-ANNv1 Model to project future stream temperature. Projections of future stream temperatures at mid- (2046–65) and late- (2081–2100) 21st century showed the July mean water temperature increasing for all stream segments with about 80 percent of stream kilometers increasing by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (°C) by mid-century and about 99 percent increasing by 1 to 3 °C by late-century. Projected changes in stream temperatures also affected changes in thermal classes with a loss in the total amount of cold-water, cold-transition, and warm-transition thermal habitat and a gain in warm-water and very warm thermal habitat for both mid- and late-21st century time periods. The greatest losses occurred for cold-water streams and the greatest gains for warm-water streams, with a contraction of cold-water streams in the Driftless Area of western and southern Wisconsin and an expansion of warm-water streams across northern Wisconsin. Results of this study suggest that such changes will affect the composition of fish assemblages, with a loss of suitable habitat for cold-water fishes and gain in suitable habitat for warm-water fishes. In the end, these projected changes in thermal habitat attributable to climate may result in a net loss of fisheries, because many warm-water species may be unable to colonize habitats formerly occupied by cold-water species because of other habitat limitations (e.g., stream size, gradient). Although projected stream temperatures may vary greatly, depending on the emissions scenario and models used, the results presented in this report represent one possibility. The relative change in stream temperature can provide useful information for planning for potential climate impacts to aquatic ecosystems. Model results can be used to help identify vulnerabilities of streams to climate change, guide stream surveys and thermal classifications, prioritize the allocation of scarce financial resources, identify approaches to climate adaptation to best protect and enhance resiliency in stream thermal habitat, and provide information to make quantitative assessments of statewide stream resources.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2010

Estimation of groundwater use for a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas, 1864-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, at the request of Congress, is assessing the availability and use of the Nation's water resources to help characterize how much water is available now, how water availability is changing, and how much water can be expected to be available in the future. The Great Lakes Basin Pilot project of the U.S. Geological Survey national assessment of water availability and use focused on the Great Lakes Basin and included detailed studies of the processes governing water availability in the Great Lakes Basin. One of these studies included the development of a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin. This report describes the compilation and estimation of the groundwater withdrawals in those areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois that were needed for the Lake Michigan Basin study groundwater-flow model. These data were aggregated for 12 model time intervals spanning 1864 to 2005 and were summarized by model area, model subregion, category of water use, aquifer system, aquifer type, and hydrogeologic unit model layer. The types and availability of information on groundwater withdrawals vary considerably among states because water-use programs often differ in the types of data collected and in the methods and frequency of data collection. As a consequence, the methods used to estimate and verify the data also vary. Additionally, because of the different sources of data and different terminologies applied for the purposes of this report, the water-use data published in this report may differ from water-use data presented in other reports. These data represent only a partial estimate of groundwater use in each state because estimates were compiled only for areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois within the Lake Michigan Basin model area. Groundwater-withdrawal data were compiled for both nearfield and farfield model areas in Wisconsin and Illinois, whereas these data were compiled primarily for the nearfield model area in Michigan and Indiana. Overall water use for the selected areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois was less during early time intervals than during more recent intervals, with large increases beginning around the 1960s. Total estimated groundwater withdrawals for model input range from 18.01 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for interval 1 (1864-1900) to 1,280.25 Mgal/d for interval 12 (2001-5). Withdrawals for the public-supply category make up the majority of the withdrawals in each of the four states. In Wisconsin and Michigan, the second largest withdrawals are for the irrigation category; in Indiana and Illinois, industrial withdrawals account for the second largest withdrawal amounts. The smallest withdrawals are for miscellaneous uses in Wisconsin and irrigation uses in Indiana and Illinois. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, Northeastern Illinois, and the farfield model area are generally larger than in the other model subregions. Withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the Quaternary aquifer system, whereas withdrawals in Illinois are predominantly from the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Withdrawals in Wisconsin are about equal from the Quaternary and Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the unconfined unconsolidated aquifer type. Withdrawals in Illinois are largely from the deep confined bedrock aquifer type, although they decreased considerably in more recent time intervals. Wisconsin withdrawals are about equal from unconfined unconsolidated and deep confined bedrock aquifer types. Groundwater-withdrawal estimates in Wisconsin were compiled for the 47 easternmost counties within the boundary of the Lake Michigan Basin model, of which 32 counties, though not entirely contained, are at least partly within the Lake Michigan Basin. Overall, 6,457 withdrawal locations were estima

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Water Use in Wisconsin, 2005

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wisconsin Water Science Center is responsible for presenting data collected or estimated for water withdrawals and diversions every 5 years to the National Water-Use Information Program (NWUIP). This program serves many purposes such as quantifying how much, where, and for what purpose water is used; tracking and documenting water-use trends and changes; and providing these data to other agencies to support hydrologic projects. In 2005, data at both the county and subbasin levels were compiled into the USGS national water-use database system; these data are published in a statewide summary report and a national circular. This publication, Water Use in Wisconsin, 2005, presents the water-use estimates for 2005; this publication also describes how these water-use data were determined (including assumptions used), limitations of using these data, and trends in water-use data presented to the NWUIP. Estimates of water use in Wisconsin indicate that about 8,608 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) were withdrawn during 2005. Of this amount, about 7,622 Mgal/d (89 percent) were from surface-water sources and about 986 Mgal/d (11 percent) were from ground-water sources. Surface water used for cooling at thermoelectric-power plants constituted the largest portion of daily use at 6,898 Mgal/d. Water provided by public-supply water utilities is the second largest use of water and totaled 552 Mgal/d. Public supply served approximately 71 percent of the estimated 2005 Wisconsin population of 5.54 million people; two counties - Milwaukee and Dane - accounted for more than one-third of the public-supply withdrawal. Industrial and irrigation were the next major water uses at 471 and 402 Mgal/d, respectively. Non-irrigational agricultural (livestock and aquaculture) accounted for approximately 155 Mgal/d and is similar to the combined withdrawal for the remaining water-use categories of domestic, commercial, and mining (131 Mgal/d). Data on water use in Wisconsin by source of water and category of use have been compiled at 5-year intervals since 1950. During the past 55 years (1950-2005), water withdrawn to meet demands for public supply and self-supplied irrigation, industrial, commercial, domestic, and livestock increased 333 percent (1,117 Mgal/d). The greatest increases were for public supply, industrial, and irrigation, and are reflected in the increasing total per-capita water-use values. In recent (2000 and 2005) water-use estimation years, both public-supply and self-supplied domestic per-capita-use values have been declining. This can be attributed, at least in part, to a reduction in industrial-water deliveries, increased water-efficiency standards, and the implementation of leak-detection programs and water-conservation practices. However, when making comparisons to evaluate trends among other Wisconsin water-use estimation years, it is important to be aware of changes that may have occurred in estimation methods or objectives that create differences. Some changes that have occurred are the availability of data and information about water use, changes in data sources and estimation methods, and the inclusion and exclusion of certain water-use categories. These differences may have an effect on apparent trends and make comparing trends difficult.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Development and application of a screening model for simulating regional ground-water flow in the St. Croix River basin, Minnesota and Wisconsin

A series of databases and an accompanying screening model were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, to better understand the regional ground-water-flow system and its relation to stream drainage in the St. Croix River Basin. The St. Croix River and its tributaries drain about 8,000 square miles in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The databases contain information for the entire St. Croix River Basin pertaining to well logs, lithology, thickness of lithologic groups, ground-water levels, streamflow, and well pumpage. Maps and generalized cross sections created from the compiled data show the lithologic groups, extending from the water table to the crystalline bedrock, through which ground water flows. These lithologic groups are: fine-grained unconsolidated deposits; coarse-grained unconsolidated deposits; sandstone bedrock; carbonate bedrock; and other bedrock lithologies including shale, siltstone, conglomerate, and igneous intrusions. The steady-state screening model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with transmissivity zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups, and with recharge zones that correspond to general areas of high or low evapotranspiration. The model includes representation of second- and higher-order streams and municipal and other high-capacity production wells. The analytic-element model code GFLOW was used to simulate the regional ground-water flow, the water-table surface across the St. Croix River Basin, and base-flow contributions from ground water to streams. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the stream network to the St. Croix River. The parameter-estimation inverse model UCODE was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match over 5,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 22 streamflow-gaging stations. Results from the calibrated screening model show ground-water contributing areas for selected stream reaches within the basin. The delineation of these areas is useful to water-resource managers concerned with protection of fisheries and other resources. The model results also identify the areas of the basin where ground-water travel time from the water table to streams and wells is relatively short (less than 50 years). Ninety percent of the simulated ground-water pathlines require travel times between 3 and 260 years. The median pathline distance traversed and the median pathline velocity were 1.7 mi and 177 ft/y, respectively. It is important to recognize the limitations of this screening model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale (hundreds to thousands of feet) flow systems associated with minor water bodies are neglected, and as a result, the model is not useful for simulating typical site-specific problems. Despite its limitations, the model serves as a framework for understanding the regional pattern of ground-water flow and as a starting point for a generation of more targeted and detailed ground-water models that would be needed to address emerging water-supply and water-quality concerns in the St. Croix River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2003

Hydrology, nutrient concentrations, and nutrient yields in nearshore areas of four lakes in northern Wisconsin, 1999-2001

The effects of shoreline development on water quality and nutrient yields in nearshore areas of four lakes in northern Wisconsin were investigated from October 1999 through September 2001. The study measured surface runoff and ground-water flows from paired developed (sites containing lawn, rooftops, sidewalks, and driveways) and undeveloped (mature and immature woods) catchments adjacent to four lakes in northern Wisconsin. Water samples from surface runoff and ground water were collected and analyzed for nutrients. Coupled with water volumes, loads and subsequent yields of selected constituents were computed for developed and undeveloped catchments. The median runoff from lawn surfaces ranged from 0.0019 to 0.059 inch over the catchment area. Median surface runoff estimates from the wooded catchments were an order of magnitude less than those from the lawn catchments. The increased water volumes from the lawn catchments resulted in greater nutrient loads and subsequent annual nutrient yields from the developed sites. Soil temperature and soil moisture were measured at two sites with mixed lawn and wooded areas. At both of these sites, the area covered with a lawn commonly was warmer than the wooded area. No consistent differences in soil moisture were found. A ground-water model was constructed to simulate the local flow systems at two of the paired catchments. Model simulations showed that much of the ground water delivered to the lake originated from distant areas that did not contribute runoff directly to the lake. Surface runoff and ground-water nutrient concentrations from the lawn and wooded catchments did not have apparent patterns. Some of the median concentrations from lawns were significantly different (at the 0.05 significance level) from those at wooded catchments. Water wells and piezometers were sampled for chemical analyses three times during the study period. Variability in the shallow ground-water chemistry over time in the lawn samples was larger than samples from the wooded areas and upgradient wells. Median nutrient yields in surface runoff from lawns always were greater than those from the wooded catchments. Runoff volumes were the most important factor in determining whether lawns or wooded catchments contribute more nutrients to the lake. The ground-water system had appreciable nutrient concentrations, and are likely an important pathway for nutrient transport to the lake. The nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen and total phosphorus yields to the ground-water system from a lawn catchment were approximately 3 to 4 times greater than those from the wooded catchment. There was no difference in the yields of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to the ground-water system from the lawn and wooded catchments. Study results demonstrate that choosing the appropriate landscape position for locating lawns in sloped areas (specifically, slopes that do not terminate at the lake or areas with intervening flat or buffer zones between lawn and lake) can help reduce the adverse effect of lawns on the shallow ground water and, ultimately, the lake. Additional information would be needed to extrapolate these results to a large drainage area of a lake.

Wisconsin↗