Geology topics

Cayelan C. Carey

Publications and source records attributed to Cayelan C. Carey.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

The Zooplankton International Geospatial (ZIG) dataset: A global repository of spatiotemporal freshwater zooplankton community composition data from lakes and reservoirs to support ecological research

Zooplankton transfer substantial energy in aquatic food webs and are used as indicators of environmental change. Syntheses of zooplankton community dynamics globally require datasets that span a wide range of environmental gradients; however, these datasets are limited due to methodological differences across programs, taxonomic inconsistencies, and a lack of standardized metadata. To reconcile these challenges, we created the Zooplankton International Geospatial (ZIG) dataset, which includes original zooplankton, water physical and chemical variables, and lake morphometric data from 311 inland lakes and reservoirs. ZIG includes waterbodies ranging in size from 0.005 to 82,100 km 2 and spanning broad latitudinal (−47.26 to 64.90) and longitudinal ranges (−165.04 to 176.53). Temporal coverage for individual waterbodies ranges between 1 and 60 yr with sampling frequency ranging from annually to weekly. With its extensive coverage and content, we consider ZIG to be a cornerstone for future investigations of global scale lake biodiversity change.

Limnology & Oceanography - Letters↗

USGS2026

Seasons and seasonality in lakes: Synthesis amid global change

Seasonality in environmental conditions plays a fundamental role in shaping lake ecosystems. However, patterns of seasonality vary worldwide, and these patterns are shifting over time amid global change. Thus, it is increasingly important to evaluate how seasons and seasonality are represented in lake ecosystem research. Here, we used a literature review and global data analysis to synthesize approaches for conceptualizing seasons and seasonality in lakes. We found that a wide range of criteria are used to delineate discrete seasons in published literature, including fixed dates (e.g., months, solstice/equinox), environmental thresholds (e.g., temperature and precipitation cutoffs), and lake-specific indicators (e.g., ice cover, plankton phenology). Analyzing data from lakes worldwide, we found that using different criteria to define the same season resulted in divergent interpretations of ecosystem states. Based on our synthesis, we offer recommendations for how to incorporate seasonality into lake research and communications amid global change.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters↗

USGS2026

Depth-resolved carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in 522 lakes, ponds, and reservoirs worldwide

Lakes, ponds, and reservoirs (hereafter: “lakes”) are important sources of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 from lakes are regulated in part by in-lake processes, including the production and storage of gases in the lower parts of the water column (bottom waters). However, while substantial efforts have been made to improve estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from lakes, limited data on gas concentrations along depth profiles have prevented the incorporation of bottom-water processes in global emission estimates. Here, we present GHG-depths: the largest existing dataset of depth-profile CO 2 and CH 4 measurements worldwide, including 522 lakes across 38 countries and all seven continents. These data include contributions from 45 research teams and 56 published studies, totaling 2558 discrete sampling events. As global change continues to alter biogeochemical cycling in lakes, these data can help improve mechanistic models to better predict greenhouse gas production and emission from lakes worldwide.

Scientific Data↗

USGS2025

Assessing risk for enhanced cyanobacteria, phytoplankton, and pathogens with changes in water level regime with potential application to Lake Powell and Lake Mead: A mixed methods literature review

Water levels in freshwater reservoirs worldwide are changing due to altered climate, management practices, and increasing human demand for water. In the desert southwestern USA, managers are considering significant changes to reservoir operation strategies and water management in response to consumptive use and ongoing drought. To inform reservoir management decision-making, we reviewed current peer-reviewed literature to identify the effects of decreasing or increasing water level on phytoplankton, cyanobacteria, Escherichia coli , and Naegleria spp. We identified 34 studies containing 42 individual waterbodies that investigated the effects of water level increases or decreases on phytoplankton or cyanobacteria. We found that water level decreases resulted in a higher likelihood of increased cyanobacteria, and that phytoplankton were more likely to decrease in response to water level increases. Most of the waterbodies included in the literature review were eutrophic or hypereutrophic, underscoring the need to explore the effects of water level fluctuations on oligotrophic systems. We only identified five studies on E. coli through our review, and no studies on Naegleria spp. We supplemented our review with regional white papers and case studies within the Colorado River Basin and the Rio Grande River Basin to highlight relevant research. Prior and ongoing research highlights the need to explore impacts of water level fluctuations on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to guide future management decision-making.

Arizona, Utah, Nevada↗

USGS2024

Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2023

The NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge

The 21st century continues to be characterized by major changes to the environment and the ecosystem services upon which society depends. Anticipating and responding to these changes requires that scientists explicitly forecast future conditions in real time (Dietze et al . 2018 ). Ecological forecasting, like weather and epidemiological forecasting, involves integrating data and models to generate quantitative predictions of the future state of ecological systems before observations are collected. The iterative cycle of creating forecasts, evaluating them with new observations, updating the models, and then making new forecasts has the potential to accelerate learning across many ecological subdisciplines. This cycle builds on openly available data, often published soon after collection, as is increasingly common in ecological observatory networks, such as the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). To accelerate improvements in ecological forecasting, we designed and launched the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge (hereafter, “Challenge”) (Figure 1 ), an open platform for the ecological and data science communities to forecast NEON data before they are collected.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2022

Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming

The quality of lake ice is of uppermost importance for ice safety and under-ice ecology, but its temporal and spatial variability is largely unknown. Here we conducted a coordinated lake ice quality sampling campaign across the Northern Hemisphere during one of the warmest winters since 1880 and show that lake ice during 2020/2021 commonly consisted of unstable white ice, at times contributing up to 100% to the total ice thickness. We observed that white ice increased over the winter season, becoming thickest and constituting the largest proportion of the ice layer towards the end of the ice cover season when fatal winter drownings occur most often and light limits the growth and reproduction of primary producers. We attribute the dominance of white ice before ice-off to air temperatures varying around the freezing point, a condition which occurs more frequently during warmer winters. Thus, under continued global warming, the prevalence of white ice is likely to substantially increase during the critical period before ice-off, for which we adjusted commonly used equations for human ice safety and light transmittance through ice.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2022

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: The ISIMIP lake sector.

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 ∘ × 0.5 ∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2022

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata . We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2022

Physics-guided architecture (PGA) of LSTM models for uncertainty quantification in lake temperature modeling

This chapter focuses on meeting the need to produce neural network outputs that are physically consistent and also express uncertainties, a rare combination to date. It explains the effectiveness of physics-guided architecture - long-short-term-memory (PGA-LSTM) in achieving better generalizability and physical consistency over data collected from Lake Mendota in Wisconsin and Falling Creek Reservoir in Virginia, even with limited training data. Even though PGL formulations result in improvements in the generalization performance and lead to machine learning (ML) predictions that are more physically consistent, simply adding the physics-based loss function in the learning objective does not overcome the black-box nature of neural network architectures, which often involve arbitrary design choices. The temperature of water in a lake is a fundamental driver of lake biogeochemical processes, and it controls the growth, survival, and reproduction of fishes in the lake.

Virginia, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short‐term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well‐developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short‐ and long‐term. We summarize the current understanding of storm‐induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2019

A General Lake Model (GLM 3.0) for linking with high-frequency sensor data from the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON)

The General Lake Model (GLM) is a one-dimensional open-source code designed to simulate the hydrodynamics of lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands. GLM was developed to support the science needs of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), a network of researchers using sensors to understand lake functioning and address questions about how lakes around the world respond to climate and land use change. The scale and diversity of lake types, locations, and sizes, and the expanding observational datasets created the need for a robust community model of lake dynamics with sufficient flexibility to accommodate a range of scientific and management questions relevant to the GLEON community. This paper summarizes the scientific basis and numerical implementation of the model algorithms, including details of sub-models that simulate surface heat exchange and ice cover dynamics, vertical mixing, and inflow–outflow dynamics. We demonstrate the suitability of the model for different lake types that vary substantially in their morphology, hydrology, and climatic conditions. GLM supports a dynamic coupling with biogeochemical and ecological modelling libraries for integrated simulations of water quality and ecosystem health, and options for integration with other environmental models are outlined. Finally, we discuss utilities for the analysis of model outputs and uncertainty assessments, model operation within a distributed cloud-computing environment, and as a tool to support the learning of network participants.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2017

Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake

Oxygen concentration is both an indicator and driver of water quality in lakes. Decreases in oxygen concentration leads to altered ecosystem function as well as harmful consequences for aquatic biota, such as fishes. The responses of oxygen dynamics in lakes to climate-related drivers, such as temperature and wind speed, are well documented for lake surface waters. However, much less is known about how the oxic environment of bottom waters, especially the timing and magnitude of anoxia in eutrophic lakes, responds to changes in climate drivers. Understanding how important ecosystem states, such as hypolimnetic anoxia, may respond to differing climate scenarios requires a model that couples physical-biological conditions and sufficiently captures the density stratification that leads to strong oxygen gradients. Here, we analyzed the effects of changes in three important meteorological drivers (air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) on hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake using the anoxic factor as an index that captures both the temporal and spatial extent of anoxia. Air temperature and relative humidity were found to have a positive correlation with anoxic factor, while wind speed had a negative correlation. Air temperature was found to have the greatest potential impact of the three drivers on the anoxic factor, followed by wind speed and then relative humidity. Across the scenarios of climate variability, variation in the simulated anoxic factor was primarily due to changes in the timing of onset and decay of stratification. Given the potential for future changes in climate, especially increases in air temperature, this study provides important insight into how these changes will alter lake water quality.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2015

Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: a framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchmentmanagement, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientistsand policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are requiredthat are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiplestressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this chal-lenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of ﬂexible model libraries and data from observationnetworks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions.The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensornetworks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model isassessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinarynature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identiﬁed as a means to develop and inte-grate diverse model libraries and workﬂows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to modelassessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore thetheory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry,and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2014

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

Inland Waters↗