Geology topics

Caleb P. Roberts

Publications and source records attributed to Caleb P. Roberts.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Rallus elegans (King Rail) occupancy is stable, but habitat is in short supply in the Arkansas Delta

Secretive marsh birds experienced precipitous declines due to losses in wetland habitat across North America. However, from 1998 to 2004, wetland area increased, and between 2009 and 2019, the extent of emergent wetlands did not significantly decrease. This raises the question: how did secretive marsh birds, which are tied to emergent wetlands, respond to this period of relative stability in wetland area? Here, we use Rallus elegans (King Rail) occurrence data collected in 2005, 2006, 2012, and 2017 in the Arkansas Delta in the United States to test the hypothesis that a period of stability in wetland vegetation is linked to stable Rallus elegans occupancy. Specifically, we sought to (1) quantify relationships between R. elegans occupancy and land cover, (2) quantify temporal trends in R. elegans occupancy, and (3) characterize changes in land cover types linked to R. elegans occupancy. We developed spatial multi-season occupancy models, and our top model contained the categorical year effect but showed no trend in R. elegans occupancy between 2005 and 2017, instead showing high interannual variation in occupancy. We found strong associations between R. elegans occupancy and emergent wetlands (positive) and elevation (negative). From 2005 to 2017 in the ∼3.7 million ha Arkansas Delta, rice crop cover decreased by 294,750 ha, emergent wetlands increased by 6,719 ha, and all other cover types increased or decreased by < 7,500 ha. Thus, although emergent wetlands did increase, the total area of emergent wetlands in 2016 (22,262 ha) comprised <1% of the Arkansas Delta. Our results support the hypothesis that R. elegans occupancy stabilized during a time when the main habitat type R. elegans depend on, emergent wetlands, also stabilized in spatial extent. There is an opportunity to turn the tide in R. elegans declines by conserving extant emergent wetlands and creating new emergent wetlands.

Arkansas↗

USGS2018

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g. historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. Here, we conduct a scenario impact assessment to determine the potential impact of climate change scenarios on the rates at which lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands are authorized for emergency biomass removal. Grassland biomass on CRP lands is authorized for ‘emergency’ harvesting for agricultural use when precipitation for the last four months falls below 40 percent of the normal, or ‘historical’ mean, precipitation for that four-month period. We develop and analyze scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections show the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28 ± 0.96%, according to long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario reflecting continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and experienced a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario reflecting rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario impact analysis indicates that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP will be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change, unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗

USGS2018

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader ( Juniperus virginiana ) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services.

Nebraska↗

USGS2017

Identifying ecologically relevant scales of habitat selection: diel habitat selection in elk

Although organisms make resource selection decisions at multiple spatiotemporal scales, not all scales are ecologically relevant to any given organism. Ecological patterns and rhythms such as behavioral and climatic patterns may provide a consistent method for identifying ecologically relevant scales of habitat selection. Using elk ( Cervus canadensis ) as an example species, we sought to test the ability of behavioral patterns to empirically partition diel scales for modeling habitat selection. We used model selection to partition diel scales by shifts in dominant behavior and then used resource selection probability functions to model elk habitat selection hierarchically at diel scales within seasons. Model selection distinguished four diel temporal partitions following elk crepuscular behavioral patterns: dawn, midday, dusk, and night. Across seasons, model‐averaged coefficients indicated that elk shifted from selecting grassland cover at dawn/dusk, to selecting for greater canopy and forest cover at midday, and then to areas with greater herbaceous biomass at night. Top models changed between diel intervals in spring and fall but stayed the same across diel intervals in winter and summer. In winter, elk selected for southern aspects during midday, for unburned areas at dawn/dusk, and for areas burned within 1–3 yr at dawn/dusk and night. In spring, elk selected for northern aspects and for areas burned within 1–3 yr at midday, for areas farther from roads at dawn/dusk and midday, and for areas farther from water at midday. In summer, elk changed diel preferences for fewer covariates: At dawn/dusk and midday, elk selected for areas farther from water and avoided forest cover, and at night, elk selected for areas burned within 1–3 yr. In fall, elk selected for areas burned the previous year at dawn/dusk and night, for higher elevations at midday, and for areas closer water at night. Using behavioral patterns to identify ecologically relevant scales can help identify overlooked habitat requirements such as diel changes in preference for fire history, forage availability, and cover. We show that the ecological relevancy of a given scale (e.g., a diel temporal scale) can change throughout a given extent (e.g., across seasons).

New Mexico↗

USGS2016

Application of activity sensors for estimating behavioral patterns

The increasing use of Global Positioning System (GPS) collars in habitat selection studies provides large numbers of precise location data points with reduced field effort. However, inclusion of activity sensors in many GPS collars also grants the potential to remotely estimate behavioral state. Thus, only using GPS collars to collect location data belies their full capabilities. Coupling behavioral state with location data would allow researchers and managers to refine habitat selection models by using diel behavioral state changes to partition fine-scale temporal shifts in habitat selection. We tested the capability of relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors to estimate behavior throughout diel periods using free-ranging female elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico, USA, 2013–2014. Collars recorded cumulative number of movements (hits) per 15-min recording period immediately preceding GPS fixes at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 hr. We measured diel behavioral patterns of focal elk, categorizing active (i.e., foraging, traveling, vigilant, grooming) and inactive (i.e., resting) states. Active behaviors (foraging, traveling) produced more average hits (0.87 ± 0.69 hits/min, 4.0 ± 2.2 hits/min, respectively; 95% CI) and inactive (resting) behavior fewer hits (−1.1 ± 0.61 95% CI). We differentiated active and inactive behavioral states with a bootstrapped threshold of 5.9 ± 3.9 hits/15-min recording period. Mean cumulative activity-sensor hits corresponded with observed diel behavioral patterns: hits increased during crepuscular (0600, 1800 hr) observations when elk were most active (0000–0600 hr: d = 0.19; 1200–1800 hr: d = 0.64) and decreased during midday and night (0000 hr, 1200 hr) when elk were least active (1800–0000 hr: d = −0.39; 0600–1200 hr: d = −0.43). Even using relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors, managers can remotely estimate behavioral states, approximate diel behavioral patterns, and potentially complement location data in developing habitat selection models.

New Mexico↗