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C. R. Tiedeman

Publications and source records attributed to C. R. Tiedeman.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Evaluating observations in the context of predictions for the death valley regional groundwater system

When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic and inferential statistics provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This work uses linear inferential statistics that are measures of prediction uncertainty to investigate the likely importance of continued monitoring of hydraulic head to the accuracy of model predictions. The measurements evaluated are hydraulic heads; the predictions of interest are subsurface transport from 15 locations. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the regional-scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its Advective Travel Observation (ADV) Package. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2005

Assessing an open-well aquifer test in fractured crystalline rock

Use of open wells to conduct aquifer tests in fractured crystalline rock aquifers is potentially problematic, because open wells can hydraulically connect highly permeable fracture zones at different depths within the rock. Because of this effect, it is questionable whether estimates of the hydraulic properties of the rock obtained from analysis of an open-well aquifer test in fractured crystalline rock are representative of the true rock properties. To address this issue, rock properties estimated from such a test are compared with rock properties estimated from an aquifer test at the same location in which packers were installed in wells to restrict vertical fluid movement along the wellbores. Results indicate that when the open-hole test is analyzed with a numerical model that accurately represents the three-dimensional heterogeneity structure in the wellfield, the open-hole test estimates of the rock hydraulic properties are similar to the packer-isolated test estimates. When the open-well test is analyzed using a model having an oversimplified representation of the rock heterogeneity, the estimates of rock transmissivity are similar to the transmissivity estimates from the packer-isolated test, but the storativity estimates are larger than the storativity estimates from the packer-isolated test. These results indicate the importance of accurately representing the rock heterogeneity structure when analyzing an open-hole aquifer test in fractured crystalline rock.Use of open wells to conduct aquifer tests in fractured crystalline rock aquifers is potentially problematic, because open wells can hydraulically connect highly permeable fracture zones at different depths within the rock. Because of this effect, it is questionable whether estimates of the hydraulic properties of the rock obtained from analysis of an open-well aquifer test in fractured crystalline rock are representative of the true rock properties. To address this issue, rock properties estimated from such a test are compared with rock properties estimated from an aquifer test at the same location in which packers were installed in wells to restrict vertical fluid movement along the wellbores. Results indicate that when the open-hole test is analyzed with a numerical model that accurately represents the three-dimensional heterogeneity structure in the wellfield, the open-hole test estimates of the rock hydraulic properties are similar to the packer-isolated test estimates. When the open-well test is analyzed using a model having an oversimplified representation of the rock heterogeneity, the estimates of rock transmissivity are similar to the transmissivity estimates from the packer-isolated test, but the storativity estimates are larger than the storativity estimates from the packer-isolated test. These results indicate the importance of accurately representing the rock heterogeneity structure when analyzing an open-hole aquifer test in fractured crystalline rock.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2003

Methods for using groundwater model predictions to guide hydrogeologic data collection, with application to the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

Calibrated models of groundwater systems can provide substantial information for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models to guide hydrogeologic data collection for improving model predictions by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions. Identification of these important parameters can help guide collection of field data about parameter values and associated flow system features and can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new “value of improved information” (VOII) method presented here, which includes the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter uncertainty and prediction sensitivity. In this work, the PSS and VOII methods are demonstrated and evaluated using a model of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system. The predictions of interest are advective transport paths originating at sites of past underground nuclear testing. Results show that for two paths evaluated the most important parameters include a subset of five or six of the 23 defined model parameters. Some of the parameters identified as most important are associated with flow system attributes that do not lie in the immediate vicinity of the paths. Results also indicate that the PSS and VOII methods can identify different important parameters. Because the methods emphasize somewhat different criteria for parameter importance, it is suggested that parameters identified by both methods be carefully considered in subsequent data collection efforts aimed at improving model predictions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2002

Evaluation of longitudinal dispersivity estimates from forced-gradient tracer tests in heterogeneous aquifers

Converging radial-flow and two-well tracer tests are simulated in two-dimensional aquifers to investigate the effects of heterogeneity and forced-gradient test configuration on longitudinal dispersivity (??L) estimates, and to compare ??L estimates from forced-gradient tests with ??L values that characterize solute spreading under natural-gradient flow. Results indicate that in both mildly and highly heterogeneous aquifers, ??L estimates from two-well tests are generally larger than those from radial-flow tests. In mildly heterogeneous aquifers, ??L estimates from two-well tests with relatively large tracer transport distances are similar to ??L values from natural-gradient simulations. In highly heterogeneous aquifers, ??L estimates from two-well tests at all tracer transport distances are typically smaller than ??L values from natural-gradient simulations.

IAHS-AISH Publication↗
USGS2002

Evaluation of longitudinal dispersivity estimates from forced-gradient tracer tests in heterogeneous aquifers

Converging radial-flow and two-well tracer tests are simulated in two-dimensional aquifers to investigate the effects of heterogeneity and forced-gradient test configuration on longitudinal dispersivity (??L) estimates, and to compare ??L estimates from forced-gradient tests with ??L values that characterize solute spreading under natural-gradient flow. Results indicate that in mildly heterogeneous aquifers, for tests with relatively large tracer transport distances, ??L estimates from the two test types are generally similar, and are also similar to ??L values determined from natural-gradient tracer simulations. In highly heterogeneous aquifers, ??L estimates from two-well tests are generally larger than those from radial-flow tests, and the ??L estimates from both test types are typically smaller than the ??L values determined from natural-gradient simulations.

Acta Universitatis Carolinae, Geologica↗
USGS2002

Weighting observations in the context of calibrating groundwater models

This paper investigates four issues related to weighting observations in the context of groundwater models calibrated with nonlinear regression: (a) terminology, (b) determining values for the weighting, (c) measurement and model errors, and (4) the effect weighting can have on the accuracy of calibrated models and measures of uncertainty. It is shown that the confusing aspects of weighting can be managed, and are not a practical barrier to using regression methods.

IAHS-AISH Publication↗
USGS2002

Weighting observations in the context of calibrating ground-water models

This paper investigates four issues related to weighting observations in the context of ground-water models calibrated with nonlinear regression: (1) terminology, (2) determining values for the weighting, (3) measurement and model errors, and (4) the effect weighting can have on the accuracy of calibrated models and measures of uncertainty. It is shown that the confusing aspects of weighting can be managed, and are not a practical barrier to using regression methods.

Acta Universitatis Carolinae, Geologica↗
USGS1998

Application of nonlinear-regression methods to a ground-water flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico

This report documents the application of nonlinear-regression methods to a numerical model of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico. In the Albuquerque Basin, ground water is the primary source for most water uses. Ground-water withdrawal has steadily increased since the 1940's, resulting in large declines in water levels in the Albuquerque area. A ground-water flow model was developed in 1994 and revised and updated in 1995 for the purpose of managing basin ground- water resources. In the work presented here, nonlinear-regression methods were applied to a modified version of the previous flow model. Goals of this work were to use regression methods to calibrate the model with each of six different configurations of the basin subsurface and to assess and compare optimal parameter estimates, model fit, and model error among the resulting calibrations. The Albuquerque Basin is one in a series of north trending structural basins within the Rio Grande Rift, a region of Cenozoic crustal extension. Mountains, uplifts, and fault zones bound the basin, and rock units within the basin include pre-Santa Fe Group deposits, Tertiary Santa Fe Group basin fill, and post-Santa Fe Group volcanics and sediments. The Santa Fe Group is greater than 14,000 feet (ft) thick in the central part of the basin. During deposition of the Santa Fe Group, crustal extension resulted in development of north trending normal faults with vertical displacements of as much as 30,000 ft. Ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin occurs primarily in the Santa Fe Group and post-Santa Fe Group deposits. Water flows between the ground-water system and surface-water bodies in the inner valley of the basin, where the Rio Grande, a network of interconnected canals and drains, and Cochiti Reservoir are located. Recharge to the ground-water flow system occurs as infiltration of precipitation along mountain fronts and infiltration of stream water along tributaries to the Rio Grande; subsurface flow from adjacent regions; irrigation and septic field seepage; and leakage through the Rio Grande, canal, and Cochiti Reservoir beds. Ground water is discharged from the basin by withdrawal; evapotranspiration; subsurface flow; and flow to the Rio Grande, canals, and drains. The transient, three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow to which nonlinear-regression methods were applied simulates flow in the Albuquerque Basin from 1900 to March 1995. Six different basin subsurface configurations are considered in the model. These configurations are designed to test the effects of (1) varying the simulated basin thickness, (2) including a hypothesized hydrogeologic unit with large hydraulic conductivity in the western part of the basin (the west basin high-K zone), and (3) substantially lowering the simulated hydraulic conductivity of a fault in the western part of the basin (the low-K fault zone). The model with each of the subsurface configurations was calibrated using a nonlinear least- squares regression technique. The calibration data set includes 802 hydraulic-head measurements that provide broad spatial and temporal coverage of basin conditions, and one measurement of net flow from the Rio Grande and drains to the ground-water system in the Albuquerque area. Data are weighted on the basis of estimates of the standard deviations of measurement errors. The 10 to 12 parameters to which the calibration data as a whole are generally most sensitive were estimated by nonlinear regression, whereas the remaining model parameter values were specified. Results of model calibration indicate that the optimal parameter estimates as a whole are most reasonable in calibrations of the model with with configurations 3 (which contains 1,600-ft-thick basin deposits and the west basin high-K zone), 4 (which contains 5,000-ft-thick basin de

New Mexico↗