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C. G. Newhall

Publications and source records attributed to C. G. Newhall.

12 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2014

Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees

The key parameters one needs to forecast outcomes of volcanic unrest are hidden kilometers beneath the Earth’s surface, and volcanic systems are so complex that there will invariably be stochastic elements in the evolution of any unrest. Fortunately, there is sufficient regularity in behaviour that some, perhaps many, eruptions can be forecast with enough certainty for populations to be evacuated and kept safe. Volcanologists charged with forecasting eruptions must try to understand each volcanic system well enough that unrest can be interpreted in terms of pre-eruptive process, but must simultaneously recognize and convey uncertainties in their assessment. We have found that use of event trees helps to focus discussion, integrate data from multiple sources, reach consensus among scientists about both pre-eruptive process and uncertainties and, in some cases, to explain all of this to officials. Figure 1 shows a generic volcanic event tree from Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) that can be modified as needed for each specific volcano. This paper reviews how we and our colleagues have used such trees during a number of volcanic crises worldwide, for rapid hazard assessments in situations in which more formal expert elicitations could not be conducted. We describe how Multiple Data Sets can be used to estimate probabilities at each node and branch. We also present case histories of probability estimation during crises, how the estimates were used by public officials, and some suggestions for future improvements.

Book chapter↗
USGS2008

Determining an age for the Inararo Tuff eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, based on correlation with a distal ash layer in core MD97-2142, South China Sea

The largest known eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the late Quaternary was the Inararo Tuff Formation (ITF) eruption, roughly estimated as five times larger than the 1991 eruption. The precise age of the ITF eruption has been uncertain. Here, a correlative of the ITF eruption, Layer D, is identified in marine sediments, and an age obtained. Tephras were identified in core MD97-2142 of Leg II of the IMAGES III cruise in northern offshore of Palawan, southeastern South China Sea (12??41.33???N, 119??27.90???E). On the basis of the geochemical and isotopic fingerprints, Layer D can be correlated with the ITF eruption of the modern Pinatubo-eruption sequence. By means of the MD97-2142 SPECMAP chronology, Layer D was dated at around 81??2 ka. This estimated age of the ITF eruption and tephra Layer D coincides with an anomalously high SO4-2 spike occurring within the 5 millennia from 79 to 84 ka in the GISP2 ice core record. ?? 2007.

Quaternary International↗
USGS2002

Fluvial sediment transport and deposition following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo generated extreme sediment yields from watersheds heavily impacted by pyroclastic flows. Bedload sampling in the Pasig-Potrero River, one of the most heavily impacted rivers, revealed negligible critical shear stress and very high transport rates that reflected an essentially unlimited sediment supply and the enhanced mobility of particles moving over a smooth, fine-grained bed. Dimensionless bedload transport rates in the Pasig-Potrero River differed substantially from those previously reported for rivers in temperate regions for the same dimensionless shear stress, but were similar to rates identified in rivers on other volcanoes and ephemeral streams in arid environments. The similarity between volcanically disturbed and arid rivers appears to arise from the lack of an armored bed surface due to very high relative sediment supply; in arid rivers, this is attributed to a flashy hydrograph, whereas volcanically disturbed rivers lack armoring due to sustained high rates of sediment delivery. This work suggests that the increases in sediment supply accompanying massive disturbance induce morphologic and hydrologic changes that temporarily enhance transport efficiency until the watershed recovers and sediment supply is reduced. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2000

10,000 Years of explosive eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java: archaeological and modern implications

Stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic deposits at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, reveals ~10,000 years of explosive eruptions. Highlights include: (1) Construction of an Old Merapi stratovolcano to the height of the present cone or slightly higher. Our oldest age for an explosive eruption is 9630±60 14 C y B.P.; construction of Old Merapi certainly began earlier. (2) Collapse(s) of Old Merapi that left a somma rim high on its eastern slope and sent one or more debris avalanche(s) down its southern and western flanks. Impoundment of Kali Progo to form an early Lake Borobudur at ~3400 14 C y B.P. hints at a possible early collapse of Merapi. The latest somma-forming collapse occurred ~1900 14 C y B.P. The current cone, New Merapi, began to grow soon thereafter. (3) Several large and many small Buddhist and Hindu temples were constructed in Central Java between 732 and ~900 A.D. (roughly, 1400-1000 14 C y B.P.). Explosive Merapi eruptions occurred before, during and after temple construction. Some temples were destroyed and (or) buried soon after their construction, and we suspect that this destruction contributed to an abrupt shift of power and organized society to East Java in 928 A.D. Other temples sites, though, were occupied by "caretakers" for several centuries longer. (4) A partial collapse of New Merapi occurred <1130±50 14 C y B.P. Eruptions ~700-800 14 C y B.P. (12-14th century A.D.) deposited ash on the floors of (still-occupied?) Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. We speculate but cannot prove that these eruptions were triggered by (the same?) partial collapse of New Merapi, and that the eruptions, in turn, ended "caretaker" occupation at Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. A new or raised Lake Borobudur also existed during part or all of the 12-14th centuries, probably impounded by deposits from Merapi. (5) Relatively benign lava-dome extrusion and dome-collapse pyroclastic flows have dominated activity of the 20th century, but explosive eruptions much larger than any of this century have occurred many times during Merapi's history, most recently during the 19th century. Are the relatively small eruptions of the 20th century a new style of open-vent, less hazardous activity that will persist for the foreseeable future? Or, alternatively, are they merely low-level "background" activity that could be interrupted upon relatively short notice by much larger explosive eruptions? The geologic record suggests the latter, which would place several hundred thousand people at risk. We know of no reliable method to forecast when an explosive eruption will interrupt the present interval of low-level activity. This conclusion has important implications for hazard evaluation.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1987

Recent geologic history of lake Atitlán, a caldera lake in western Guatemala

Lake Atitl&aacute;n, a caldera lake in western Guatemala, was investigated for evidence of recent volcanic and tectonic activity. No vents, faults, or folds are apparent on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles of lake sediment, representing at least 17,500 years and probably more than 35,000 years of deposition. Three post-caldera stratovolcanoes (San Pedro, Tolim&aacute;n, and Atitl&aacute;n) have grown in southern parts of the caldera and two deltas have grown from the north shore of the lake. Elsewhere, the caldera is occupied by Lake Atitl&aacute;n, which is more than 300 m deep and has a relatively flat floor. Refraction profiles suggest that the original floor of the caldera lies ca. 300 m below the current lake floor, but prodigious amounts of methane gas in the lake sediment attenuated seismic signals and prevented any detailed view of the original caldera floor or faults along which the floor is presumed to have collapsed. Piston cores from deep basins of Lake Atitl&aacute;n record ca. 2,000 years of unusually rapid sedimentation (ca. 0.5 cm/yr). Only one thin silicic ash layer was penetrated, and it is probably from a distant source. Cores contain evidence of Mayan disturbance of the environment around the lake and, to a lesser degree, of the lake itself; they might also record episodes of increased thermal activity, each lasting several decades. Heat-flow measurements inside and just outside the caldera are high (290 and 230 mW m &minus;2 ), suggesting hydrothermal convection and a shallow heat source. High heat flow, a geological record of post-caldera silicic eruptions, and unexplained fluctuations of lake level (episodic tumescence ofthe lake floor?) suggest that magma remains beneath Lake Atitl&aacute;n and that future eruptions are possible.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1985

Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975-1984

Public statements about volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens include factual statements, forecasts, and predictions. A factual statement describes current conditions but does not anticipate future events. A forecast is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity. A prediction is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. A prediction usually covers a shorter time period than a forecast and is generally based dominantly on interpretations and measurements of ongoing processes and secondarily on a projection of past history. The three types of statements grade from one to another, and distinctions are sometimes arbitrary. Forecasts and predictions at Mount St. Helens became increasingly precise from 1975 to 1982. Stratigraphic studies led to a long-range forecast in 1975 of renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, possibly before the end of the century. On the basis of seismic, geodetic and geologic data, general forecasts for a landslide and eruption were issued in April 1980, before the catastrophic blast and landslide on 18 May 1980. All extrusions except two from June 1980 to the end of 1984 were predicted on the basis of integrated geophysical, geochemical, and geologic monitoring. The two extrusions that were not predicted were preceded by explosions that removed a substantial part of the dome, reducing confining pressure and essentially short-circuiting the normal precursors.

Journal of Geodynamics↗