Geology topics

Brian Lockwood

Publications and source records attributed to Brian Lockwood.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

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USGS2014

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000–2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

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USGS2014

Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model. The PVHM model, using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP2), is capable of being accurate at seasonal to interannual time frames and subregional to valley-wide spatial scales for the assessment of the groundwater hydrologic budget for water years 1964–2009, as well as potential assessment of the BMP components and sustainability analysis of conjunctive use. The model provides a good representation of the regional flow system and the use and movement of water throughout the valley. Simulated changes in storage over time show that, prior to the 1984–92 dry period, significant withdrawals from storage occurred only during drought years. Since about 1993, growers in the Pajaro Valley have shifted to more water intensive crops, such as strawberries, bushberries, and vegetable row crops, as well as making additional rotational plantings, which have increased demand on limited groundwater resources. Simulated groundwater flow indicates that vertical hydraulic gradients between horizontal layers fluctuate and even reverse in several parts of the basin as recharge and pumpage rates change seasonally and annually. The majority of recharge predominantly enters the Alluvial aquifer system, and along with pumpage and the largest fractions of storage depletion, occurs in the inland regions. Coastal inflow as seawater intrusion replaces much of the potential storage depletion in the coastal regions. The simulated long-term imbalance between inflows and outflows indicates overdraft of the groundwater basin averaging about 12,950 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) over the 46-year period of water years (1964–2009). Annual overdraft varies considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatically driven factors can affect inflows, outflows, and water use by as much as a factor of two between wet and dry years. Coastal inflows and outflows vary by year and by aquifer; the net coastal inflow, or seawater intrusion, ranges from about 1,000 to more than 6,000 acre-ft/yr. Maps of simulated and measured water-level elevations indicate regions with water levels below sea level in the alluvium and Aromas layers. Ongoing expansion of local hydrologic monitoring networks indicates the importance of these networks to the understanding of changes in groundwater flow, streamflow, and streamflow infiltration. In particular, the monitoring of streamflow, groundwater pumpage, and groundwater levels throughout the valley not only indicates the state of the resources, but also provides valuable information for model calibration and for model-based evaluation of management actions. The HS-ASR was simulated for the years 2002–09, and replaced about about 1,290 acre-ft of coastal pumpage. This was combined with the simulation of additional 6,200 acre-ft of deliveries from supplemental wells, recycled water, and city connection deliveries through the CDS that also supplanted some coastal pumpage. Total simulated deliveries were 7,350 acre-ft of the 7,500 acre-ft of reported deliveries for the period 2002-09. The completed CDS should be capable of delivering about 8.8 million cubic meters (7,150 acre-ft) of water per year to coastal farms within the Pajaro Valley, if all the local supply components were fully available for this purpose. This would represent about 15 percent of the 48,300 acre-ft (59.6 million cubic meters) average agricultural pumpage for the period 2005 to 2009. Combined with the potential capture and reuse of some of the return flows and tile-drain flows, this could represent an almost 70 percent reduction of average overdraft for the entire valley and a large part of the coastal pumpage that induces seawater intrusion.

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