Geology topics

Brent M. Lofgren

Publications and source records attributed to Brent M. Lofgren.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2015

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan↗

USGS2015

Climate change projections for lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) recruitment in the 1836 Treaty Waters of the Upper Great Lakes

Lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) is an ecologically, culturally, and economically important species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Lake whitefish have been a staple food source for thousands of years and, since 1980, have supported the most economically valuable (annual catch value ≈ US$16.6 million) and productive (annual harvest ≈ 7 million kg) commercial fishery in the upper Great Lakes (Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior). Climate changes, specifically changes in temperature, wind, and ice cover, are expected to impact the ecology, production dynamics, and value of this fishery because the success of recruitment to the fishery has been linked with these climatic variables. We used linear regression to determine the relationship between fall and spring air temperature indices, fall wind speed, winter ice cover, and lake whitefish recruitment in 13 management units located in the 1836 Treaty Waters of the Upper Great Lakes ceded by the Ottawa and Chippewa nations, a culturally and commercially important region for the lake whitefish fishery. In eight of the 13 management units evaluated, models including one or more climate variables (temperature, wind, ice cover) explained significantly more variation in recruitment than models with only the stock–recruitment relationship, using corrected Akaike's Information Criterion comparisons (ΔAICc > 3). Isolating the climate–recruitment relationship and projecting recruitment with the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM) indicated the potential for increased lake whitefish recruitment in the majority of the 1836 Treaty Waters management units. These results can inform adaptive management strategies by providing anticipated implications of climate on lake whitefish recruitment.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Superior↗

USGS2014

Temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by salmonines in Lakes Michigan and Huron

We used bioenergetics models to investigate temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , lake trout Salvelinus namaycush , and steelhead O. mykiss in Lakes Michigan and Huron. We updated biological inputs to account for recent changes in the food webs and used temperature inputs in response to regional climate observed in the baseline period (1964–1993) and projected in the future period (2043–2070). Bioenergetics simulations were run across multiple age-classes and across all four seasons in different scenarios of prey availability. Due to the increased capacity of prey consumption, future growth and consumption by these salmonines were projected to increase substantially when prey availability was not limited. When prey consumption remained constant, future growth of these salmonines was projected to decrease in most cases but increase in some cases where the increase in metabolic cost can be compensated by the decrease in waste (egestion and excretion) loss. Consumption by these salmonines was projected to increase the most during spring and fall when prey energy densities are relatively high. Such seasonality benefits their future growth through increasing annual gross energy intake. Our results indicated that lake trout and steelhead would be better adapted to the warming climate than Chinook salmon. To maintain baseline growth into the future, an increase of 10 % in baseline prey consumption was required for Chinook salmon but considerably smaller increases, or no increases, in prey consumption were needed by lake trout and steelhead.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan↗

USGS2002

Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs

The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

Great Lakes basin↗