Geology topics

Bradley M. Cramer

Publications and source records attributed to Bradley M. Cramer.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Avian predation on juvenile and adult Lost River and Shortnose Suckers: An updated multi-predator species evaluation

Previous research suggests that predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds may negatively influence the survival of Lost River Suckers (LRS) Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers (SNS) Chasmistes brevirostris in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), USA. However, estimates of predation from past studies, which were based on suckers with PIT tags, represent minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of tags that were consumed by birds and deposited beyond their breeding colony. To address this uncertainty, we fed PIT-tagged suckers to American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos to estimate deposition probabilities. A hierarchical Bayesian model was then used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish that were consumed) on juvenile suckers that were released as part of the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP) and on wild juvenile and adult LRS and SNS during 2009–2020. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated to be 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 tags consumed, 47 tags on average were deposited on breeding colonies by birds. Deposition-corrected estimates of predation rates were approximately two times greater than those previously reported and ranged annually from 4.3% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.7%) to 8.5% (6.3–12.7%) on SARP juvenile suckers, from 4.3% (0.9–13.2%) to 10.5% (3.8–24.5%) on wild juvenile suckers, and from 0.1% (<0.1–0.3%) to 7.2% (2.8–16.4%) on adult suckers, depending on species and location. Results suggest that predation by colonial waterbirds, although not the original cause of sucker declines, was a substantial source of sucker mortality in some years. Future studies should consider models that jointly estimate both predation and survival and models that include environmental factors that potentially influence sucker susceptibility to avian predators in the UKB.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2022

Cumulative effects of piscivorous colonial waterbirds on juvenile salmonids: A multi predator-prey species evaluation

We investigated the cumulative effects of predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds on the survival of multiple salmonid ( Oncorhynchus spp.) populations listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and determined what proportion of all sources of fish mortality (1 –survival) were due to birds in the Columbia River basin, USA. Anadromous juvenile salmonids (smolts) were exposed to predation by Caspian terns ( Hydroprogne caspia ), double-crested cormorants ( Nannopterum auritum ), California gulls ( Larus californicus ), and ring-billed gulls ( L . delawarensis ), birds known to consume both live and dead fish. Avian consumption and survival probabilities (proportion of available fish consumed or alive) were estimated for steelhead trout ( O . mykiss ), yearling Chinook salmon ( O . tshawytscha ), sub-yearling Chinook salmon, and sockeye salmon ( O . nerka ) during out-migration from the lower Snake River to the Pacific Ocean during an 11-year study period (2008–2018). Results indicated that probabilities of avian consumption varied greatly across salmonid populations, bird species, colony location, river reach, and year. Cumulative consumption probabilities (consumption by birds from all colonies combined) were consistently the highest for steelhead, with annual estimates ranging from 0.22 (95% credible interval = 0.20–0.26) to 0.51 (0.43–0.60) of available smolts. The cumulative effects of avian consumption were significantly lower for yearling and sub-yearling Chinook salmon, with consumption probabilities ranging annually from 0.04 (0.02–0.07) to 0.10 (0.07–0.15) and from 0.06 (0.3–0.09) to 0.15 (0.10–0.23), respectively. Avian consumption probabilities for sockeye salmon smolts was generally higher than for Chinook salmon smolts, but lower than for steelhead smolts, ranging annually from 0.08 (0.03–0.22) to 0.25 (0.14–0.44). Although annual consumption probabilities for birds from certain colonies were more than 0.20 of available smolts, probabilities from other colonies were less than 0.01 of available smolts, indicating that not all colonies of birds posed a substantial risk to smolt mortality. Consumption probabilities were lowest for small colonies and for colonies located a considerable distance from the Snake and Columbia rivers. Total mortality attributed to avian consumption was relatively small for Chinook salmon (less than 10%) but was the single greatest source of mortality for steelhead (greater than 50%) in all years evaluated. Results suggest that the potential benefits to salmonid populations of managing birds to reduce smolt mortality would vary widely depending on the salmonid population, the species of bird, and the size and location of the breeding colony.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Avian predation of juvenile Lost River and Shortnose Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake: An assessment of Sucker assisted rearing program releases during 2018–2020

To bolster recruitment in Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed Lost River Suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and Shortnose Suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and its partners have implemented the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP). As part of this program, juvenile suckers were reared in captivity, implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags (n= 8,857), and released into the Upper Klamath Lake or its tributaries during 2018–2020. Previous research suggests that predation by American White Pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos), Double-crested Cormorants (Nannopterum auritum), and Caspian Terns (Hydroprogne caspia) may negatively influence sucker survival, particularly predation on juvenile suckers. Estimates of predation impacts from past studies, however, represented minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of consumed tags that were deposited by birds on their breeding colony where PIT tag recovery efforts took place. To estimate and account for deposition probabilities, we conducted a field study in which we fed pelicans PIT-tagged juvenile suckers (n = 401). We accounted for deposition probabilities of cormorants and terns by using previously published estimates. Sucker PIT tags were recovered from pelican, cormorant, and tern nesting sites in the UKB following each breeding season and a hierarchical Bayesian model was used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish consumed) on SARP releases as well as naturally-reared or wild juvenile suckers and adult suckers that were PIT-tagged in Upper Klamath Lake and Clear Lake Reservoir. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated at 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 PIT tags consumed, on average, 47 were deposited by pelicans on breeding colonies. Estimates of predation rates that incorporate corrections for deposition on SARP releases ranged annually from 4.4% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.8%) to 8.8% (6.2–13.3%) during 2018–2020. Results suggest that colonial waterbird predation impacts on SARP releases likely constituted a small, but unknown, component of total mortality for suckers released into the Upper Klamath Lake system. Predation impacts on SARP juvenile suckers and wild juvenile suckers, which were estimated annually at 4.7% (1.0–13.9%) to 14.9% (7.6–29.3%), were consistently higher than those observed on adult suckers, with predation on adult suckers typically less than 4.0% of available fish annually. Future predation studies may consider models that integrate both live and dead detections of PIT-tagged suckers to generate more accurate and precise estimates of survival following release, as well as models that consider environmental factors that influence sucker susceptibility to colonial waterbird predation. Such models would provide a more holistic understanding of the degree to which avian predation limits the survival of ESA-listed suckers in the UKB.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Wanted dead or alive: A state-space mark-recapture-recovery model incorporating multiple recovery types and state uncertainty

We developed a state-space mark-recapture-recovery model that incorporates multiple recovery types and state uncertainty to estimate survival of an anadromous fish species. We apply the model to a dataset of out-migrating juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) tagged with passive integrated transponders, recaptured during outmigration, and recovered on bird colonies in the Columbia River basin (2008-2014). Recoveries on bird colonies are often ignored in survival studies because the river reach of mortality is often unknown, which we model as a form of state uncertainty. Median outmigration survival from release to the lower river (river kilometer 729 to 75) ranged from 0.27 to 0.35, depending on year. Recovery probabilities were frequently >0.20 in the first river reach following tagging, indicating that one out of five fish that died in that reach was recovered on a bird colony. Integrating dead recovery data provided increased parameter precision, estimation of where birds consumed fish, and survival estimates across larger spatial scales. More generally, these modeling approaches provide a flexible framework to integrate multiple sources of tag recovery data into mark-recapture studies.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2016

Colonial waterbird predation on Lost River and Shortnose suckers in the Upper Klamath Basin

We evaluated predation on Lost River Suckers Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers Chasmistes brevirostris by American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos and double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus nesting at mixed-species colonies in the Upper Klamath Basin of Oregon and California during 2009–2014. Predation was evaluated by recovering (detecting) PIT tags from tagged fish on bird colonies and calculating minimum predation rates, as the percentage of available suckers consumed, adjusted for PIT tag detection probabilities but not deposition probabilities (i.e., probability an egested tag was deposited on- or off-colony). Results indicate that impacts of avian predation varied by sucker species, age-class (adult, juvenile), bird colony location, and year, demonstrating dynamic predator–prey interactions. Tagged suckers ranging in size from 72 to 730 mm were susceptible to cormorant or pelican predation; all but the largest Lost River Suckers were susceptible to bird predation. Minimum predation rate estimates ranged annually from <0.1% to 4.6% of the available PIT-tagged Lost River Suckers and from <0.1% to 4.2% of the available Shortnose Suckers, and predation rates were consistently higher on suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, than on suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. There was evidence that bird predation on juvenile suckers (species unknown) in Upper Klamath Lake was higher than on adult suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, where minimum predation rates ranged annually from 5.7% to 8.4% of available juveniles. Results suggest that avian predation is a factor limiting the recovery of populations of Lost River and Shortnose suckers, particularly juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake and adult suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir. Additional research is needed to measure predator-specific PIT tag deposition probabilities (which, based on other published studies, could increase predation rates presented herein by a factor of roughly 2.0) and to better understand biotic and abiotic factors that regulate sucker susceptibility to bird predation.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2015

Quantifying avian predation on fish populations: integrating predator-specific deposition probabilities in tag-recovery studies

Accurate assessment of specific mortality factors is vital to prioritize recovery actions for threatened and endangered species. For decades, tag recovery methods have been used to estimate fish mortality due to avian predation. Predation probabilities derived from fish tag recoveries on piscivorous waterbird colonies typically reflect minimum estimates of predation due to an unknown and unaccounted-for fraction of tags that are consumed but not deposited on-colony (i.e., deposition probability). We applied an integrated tag recovery modeling approach in a Bayesian context to estimate predation probabilities that accounted for predator-specific tag detection and deposition probabilities in a multiple-predator system. Studies of PIT tag deposition were conducted across three bird species nesting at seven different colonies in the Columbia River basin, USA. Tag deposition probabilities differed significantly among predator species (Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia : deposition probability = 0.71, 95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.51–0.89; double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus : 0.51, 95% CRI = 0.34–0.70; California gulls Larus californicus : 0.15, 95% CRI = 0.11–0.21) but showed little variation across trials within a species or across years. Data from a 6-year study (2008–2013) of PIT-tagged juvenile Snake River steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act) indicated that colony-specific predation probabilities ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.17 and varied by predator species, colony location, and year. Integrating the predator-specific deposition probabilities increased the predation probabilities by a factor of approximately 1.4 for Caspian terns, 2.0 for double-crested cormorants, and 6.7 for California gulls compared with traditional minimum predation rate methods, which do not account for deposition probabilities. Results supported previous findings on the high predation impacts from strictly piscivorous waterbirds nesting in the Columbia River estuary (i.e., terns and cormorants), but our findings also revealed greater impacts of a generalist predator species (i.e., California gulls) than were previously documented. Approaches used in this study allow for direct comparisons among multiple fish mortality factors and considerably improve the reliability of tag recovery models for estimating predation probabilities in multiple-predator systems.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗