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Geology topics

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner

Publications and source records attributed to Bette L. Otto-Bliesner.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2022

Atlantic circulation change still uncertain

Deep oceanic overturning circulation in the Atlantic (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)) is projected to decrease in the future in response to anthropogenic warming. Caesar et al. 1 argue that an AMOC slowdown started in the nineteenth century and intensified during the mid-twentieth century. Although the argument and selected evidence proposed have some merits, we find that their conclusions might be different if a more complete array of data available in the North Atlantic region is considered. We argue that the strength of AMOC over recent centuries is still poorly constrained and the expected slowdown may not have started yet. Recently, Moffa-Sánchez et al. 2 compiled a comprehensive set of palaeoclimate proxy data from the North Atlantic and Arctic regions using objective criteria to identify high-quality datasets of ocean conditions that span the past two millennia (Fig. 1). Although no direct (singular) proxy for AMOC exists, the palaeoceanographic proxy data compiled by Moffa-Sánchez et al. 2 highlight the spatial and temporal complexities of the ocean state in modern times and the recent past. When all the available proxy records potentially related to AMOC variability and twentieth century observational datasets are considered, the time history of the AMOC system becomes less certain. In contrast, selecting only a subset of proxy records that share similar trends, as performed by Caesar et al. 1 , provides an incomplete perspective on AMOC changes through time.

Atlantic Ocean↗
USGS2021

Retreat and regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial as simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 coupled climate–ice sheet model

During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model-derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre-industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice-sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high-latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice-sheet response.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗
USGS2020

Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90 ∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘ C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘ C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to - 10.4 × 10 6 "> − 10.4 × 10 6 km 2 , with a MMM anomaly of - 5.6 × 10 6 "> − 5.6 × 10 6 km 2 , which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions ( ≤ 1 × 10 6 "> ≤ 1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Climate of the Past↗
USGS2020

A comparison of the CMIP6 midHolocene and lig127k simulations in CESM2

Results are presented and compared for the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulations of the middle Holocene (MH, 6 ka) and Last Interglacial (LIG, 127 ka). These simulations are designated as Tier 1 experiments ( midHolocene and lig127k ) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). They use the low-top, standard 1° version of CESM2 contributing to CMIP6 DECK, historical, and future projection simulations, and to other modeling intercomparison projects. The midHolocene and lig127k provide the opportunity to examine the responses in CESM2 to the orbitally induced changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation. The insolation anomalies result in summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents, reduced Arctic summer minimum sea ice, and increased areal extent of the North African monsoon. The Arctic remains warm throughout the year. These changes are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulation. Other notable changes are reduction of the Niño3.4 variability and Drake Passage transport and a small increase in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the piControl to midHolocene to lig127k simulation. Comparisons to paleo-data and to simulations from previous model versions are discussed. Possible reasons for mismatches with the paleo-observations are proposed, including missing processes in CESM2, simplifications in the CMIP6 protocols for these experiments, and dating and calibration uncertainties in the data reconstructions.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗
USGS2020

Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change

Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species’ conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.

Science↗
USGS2018

Mid-piacenzian of the north Atlantic Ocean

The Piacenzian Age (Pliocene) represents a past climate interval within which frequency and magnitude of environmental changes during a period of past global warmth can be analyzed, climate models can be tested, and results can be placed in a context to better prepare for future change. Here we focus on the North Atlantic region, incorporating new and existing faunal assemblage and alkenone data from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 642, 662, 982, and 999, and International Ocean Discovery Program Sites 1308 and 1313 into our paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Cores and outcrop material containing Piacenzian sediments from the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Virginia, USA, are also included. These data allow us to characterize regional changes in temperature, salinity, upwelling, surface productivity, and diversity, associated with climate transitions, and make nuanced reconstructions of mid-Piacenzian conditions within a high-resolution temporal framework between ~3.40 and ~3.15 Ma, inclusive of Marine Isotope Stages M2 through KM5. We include an initial comparison of estimated sea-surface temperature to coupled climate model simulations, which shows improvement in model adherence to paleoclimate parameters over previous data-model comparisons for the Pliocene.

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2018

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Science↗
USGS2012

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2006

Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation

In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.

Science↗