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Bernard T. Nolan

Publications and source records attributed to Bernard T. Nolan.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Data worth and prediction uncertainty for pesticide transport and fate models in Nebraska and Maryland, United States

BACKGROUND Complex environmental models are frequently extrapolated to overcome data limitations in space and time, but quantifying data worth to such models is rarely attempted. The authors determined which field observations most informed the parameters of agricultural system models applied to field sites in Nebraska (NE) and Maryland (MD), and identified parameters and observations that most influenced prediction uncertainty. RESULTS The standard error of regression of the calibrated models was about the same at both NE (0.59) and MD (0.58), and overall reductions in prediction uncertainties of metolachlor and metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid concentrations were 98.0 and 98.6% respectively. Observation data groups reduced the prediction uncertainty by 55–90% at NE and by 28–96% at MD. Soil hydraulic parameters were well informed by the observed data at both sites, but pesticide and macropore properties had comparatively larger contributions after model calibration. CONCLUSIONS Although the observed data were sparse, they substantially reduced prediction uncertainty in unsampled regions of pesticide breakthrough curves. Nitrate evidently functioned as a surrogate for soil hydraulic data in well-drained loam soils conducive to conservative transport of nitrogen. Pesticide properties and macropore parameters could most benefit from improved characterization further to reduce model misfit and prediction uncertainty. RESULTS: The standard error of regression of the calibrated models was about the same at both NE (0.59) and MD (0.58), and overall reductions in prediction uncertainties of metolachlor and metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid concentrations were 98.0 and 98.6% respectively. Observation data groups reduced the prediction uncertainty by 55–90% at NE and by 28–96% at MD. Soil hydraulic parameters were well informed by the observed data at both sites, but pesticide and macropore properties had comparatively larger contributions after model calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Although the observed data were sparse, they substantially reduced prediction uncertainty in unsampled regions of pesticide breakthrough curves. Nitrate evidently functioned as a surrogate for soil hydraulic data in well-drained loam soils conducive to conservative transport of nitrogen. Pesticide properties and macropore parameters could most benefit from improved characterization further to reduce model misfit and prediction uncertainty.

Maryl;Nebraska↗
USGS2014

Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California

Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69–82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p < 0.0001) in logistic regression.

California↗
USGS2014

Effects of tillage and application rate on atrazine transport to subsurface drainage: Evaluation of RZWQM using a six-year field study

Well tested agricultural system models can improve our understanding of the water quality effects of management practices under different conditions. The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) has been tested under a variety of conditions. However, the current model's ability to simulate pesticide transport to subsurface drain flow over a long term period under different tillage systems and application rates is not clear. Therefore, we calibrated and tested RZWQM using six years of data from Nashua, Iowa. In this experiment, atrazine was spring applied at 2.8 (1990–1992) and 0.6 kg/ha/yr (1993–1995) to two 0.4 ha plots with different tillage (till and no-till). The observed and simulated average annual flow weighted atrazine concentrations (FWAC) in subsurface drain flow from the no-till plot were 3.7 and 3.2 μg/L, respectively for the period with high atrazine application rates, and 0.8 and 0.9 μg/L, respectively for the period with low application rates. The 1990–1992 observed average annual FWAC difference between the no-till and tilled plot was 2.4 μg/L while the simulated difference was 2.1 μg/L. These observed and simulated differences for 1993–1995 were 0.1 and 0.1 μg/L, respectively. The Nash–Sutcliffe model performance statistic (EF) for cumulative atrazine flux to subsurface drain flow was 0.93 for the no-till plot testing years (1993–1995), which is comparable to other recent model tests. The value of EF is 1.0 when simulated data perfectly match observed data. The order of selected parameter sensitivity for RZWQM simulated FWAC was atrazine partition coefficient > number of macropores > atrazine half life in soil > soil hydraulic conductivity. Simulations from 1990 to 1995 with four different atrazine application rates applied at a constant rate throughout the simulation period showed concentrations in drain flow for the no-till plot to be twice those of the tilled plot. The differences were more pronounced in the early simulation period (1990–1992), partly because of the characteristics of macropore flow during large storms. The results suggest that RZWQM is a promising tool to study pesticide transport to subsurface drain flow under different tillage systems and application rates over several years, the concentrations of atrazine in drain flow can be higher with no-till than tilled soil over a range of atrazine application rates, and atrazine concentrations in drain flow are sensitive to the macropore flow characteristics under different tillage systems and rainfall timing and intensity.

Agricultural Water Management↗
USGS2014

Dietary nitrate and cardiovascular health

Sep tember 17, 2014, Bethesda, Maryland The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened this workshop to discuss the results of recent research on the effects of inorganic nitrate and nitrite on the cardiovascular system, possible long term effects of these compounds in the diet and drinking water, and future research needs including population-wide effects examined through epidemiological studies.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Nitrate in groundwater of the United States, 1991-2003

An assessment of nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the United States indicates that concentrations are highest in shallow, oxic groundwater beneath areas with high N inputs. During 1991-2003, 5101 wells were sampled in 51 study areas throughout the U.S. as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. The well networks reflect the existing used resource represented by domestic wells in major aquifers (major aquifer studies), and recently recharged groundwater beneath dominant land-surface activities (land-use studies). Nitrate concentrations were highest in shallow groundwater beneath agricultural land use in areas with well-drained soils and oxic geochemical conditions. Nitrate concentrations were lowest in deep groundwater where groundwater is reduced, or where groundwater is older and hence concentrations reflect historically low N application rates. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify the relative importance of N inputs, biogeochemical processes, and physical aquifer properties in explaining nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Factors ranked by reduction in sum of squares indicate that dissolved iron concentrations explained most of the variation in groundwater nitrate concentration, followed by manganese, calcium, farm N fertilizer inputs, percent well-drained soils, and dissolved oxygen. Overall, nitrate concentrations in groundwater are most significantly affected by redox conditions, followed by nonpoint-source N inputs. Other water-quality indicators and physical variables had a secondary influence on nitrate concentrations.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2010

Predicting unsaturated zone nitrogen mass balances in agricultural settings of the United States

Unsaturated zone N fate and transport were evaluated at four sites to identify the predominant pathways of N cycling: an almond [ Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] orchard and cornfield ( Zea mays L.) in the lower Merced River study basin, California; and corn–soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotations in study basins at Maple Creek, Nebraska, and at Morgan Creek, Maryland. We used inverse modeling with a new version of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) to estimate soil hydraulic and nitrogen transformation parameters throughout the unsaturated zone; previous versions were limited to 3-m depth and relied on manual calibration. The overall goal of the modeling was to derive unsaturated zone N mass balances for the four sites. RZWQM2 showed promise for deeper simulation profiles. Relative root mean square error (RRMSE) values for predicted and observed nitrate concentrations in lysimeters were 0.40 and 0.52 for California (6.5 m depth) and Nebraska (10 m), respectively, and index of agreement ( d ) values were 0.60 and 0.71 ( d varies between 0 and 1, with higher values indicating better agreement). For the shallow simulation profile (1 m) in Maryland, RRMSE and d for nitrate were 0.22 and 0.86, respectively. Except for Nebraska, predictions of average nitrate concentration at the bottom of the simulation profile agreed reasonably well with measured concentrations in monitoring wells. The largest additions of N were predicted to come from inorganic fertilizer (153–195 kg N ha −1 yr −1 in California) and N fixation (99 and 131 kg N ha −1 yr −1 in Maryland and Nebraska, respectively). Predicted N losses occurred primarily through plant uptake (144–237 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ) and deep seepage out of the profile (56–102 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ). Large reservoirs of organic N (up to 17,500 kg N ha −1 m −1 at Nebraska) were predicted to reside in the unsaturated zone, which has implications for potential future transfer of nitrate to groundwater.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2010

The quality of our nation's waters: Nutrients in the nation's streams and groundwater, 1992-2004

National Findings and Their Implications Although the use of artificial fertilizer has supported increasing food production to meet the needs of a growing population, increases in nutrient loadings from agricultural and, to a lesser extent, urban sources have resulted in nutrient concentrations in many streams and parts of aquifers that exceed standards for protection of human health and (or) aquatic life, often by large margins. Do NAWQA findings substantiate national concerns for aquatic and human health? National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) findings indicate that nutrient concentrations in streams and groundwater in basins with significant agricultural or urban development are substantially greater than naturally occurring or “background” levels. For example, median concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural streams are about 6 times greater than background levels. Findings also indicate that concentrations in streams routinely were 2 to 10 times greater than regional nutrient criteria recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to protect aquatic life. Such large differences in magnitude suggest that significant reductions in sources of nutrients, as well as greater use of land management strategies to reduce the transport of nutrients to streams, are needed to meet recommended criteria for streams draining areas with significant agricultural and urban development. Nitrate concentrations above the Federal drinking-water standard—or Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL)—of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L, as nitrogen) are relatively uncommon in samples from streams used for drinking water or from relatively deep aquifers; the MCL is exceeded, however, in more than 20 percent of shallow (less than 100 feet below the water table) domestic wells in agricultural areas. This finding raises concerns for human health in rural agricultural areas where shallow groundwater is used for domestic supply and may warn of future contamination of deeper groundwater pumped from public‑supply wells. Are levels of nutrients in water increasing or decreasing? A decadal assessment of trends in concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus from about 1993 to 2003 shows minimal changes in those concentrations in the majority of studied streams across the Nation, and more upward than downward trends in concentrations at sites with changes. These findings underscore the need for reductions in nutrient inputs or management strategies that would reduce transport of nutrients to streams. Upward trends were evident among all land uses, including those only minimally affected by agricultural and (or) urban development, which suggests that additional protection of some of our Nation’s most pristine streams warrants consideration. The median of nitrate concentrations in groundwater from 495 wells also increased significantly from 3.2 to 3.4 mg/L (6 percent) during about the same period, and the proportion of wells with concentrations of nitrate greater than the MCL increased from 16 to 21 percent. Nitrate concentrations in water in deep aquifers are likely to increase during the next decade as shallow groundwater with elevated concentrations moves downward. The potential for future contamination of the deep aquifers requires attention because these aquifers commonly are used for public water supply, and because restoration of groundwater is costly and difficult. Long-term and consistent monitoring of nutrients, improved accounting of nutrient sources, and improved tracking and modeling of climatic and landscape changes will be essential for distinguishing trends in nutrient concentrations, understanding the causes of those trends, and accurately tracking the effectiveness of strategies implemented to manage nutrients.

Circular↗
USGS2006

Vulnerability of shallow groundwater and drinking-water wells to nitrate in the United States

Two nonlinear models were developed at the national scale to (1) predict contamination of shallow ground water (typically < 5 m deep) by nitrate from nonpoint sources and (2) to predict ambient nitrate concentration in deeper supplies used for drinking. The new models have several advantages over previous national-scale approaches. First, they predict nitrate concentration (rather than probability of occurrence), which can be directly compared with water-quality criteria. Second, the models share a mechanistic structure that segregates nitrogen (N) sources and physical factors that enhance or restrict nitrate transport and accumulation in ground water. Finally, data were spatially averaged to minimize small-scale variability so that the large-scale influences of N loading, climate, and aquifer characteristics could more readily be identified. Results indicate that areas with high N application, high water input, well-drained soils, fractured rocks or those with high effective porosity, and lack of attenuation processes have the highest predicted nitrate concentration. The shallow groundwater model (mean square error or MSE = 2.96) yielded a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) of 0.801, indicating that much of the variation in nitrate concentration is explained by the model. Moderate to severe nitrate contamination is predicted to occur in the High Plains, northern Midwest, and selected other areas. The drinking-water model performed comparably (MSE = 2.00, R 2 = 0.767) and predicts that the number of users on private wells and residing in moderately contaminated areas (>5 to ≤10 mg/L nitrate) decreases by 12% when simulation depth increases from 10 to 50 m.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2005

Evaluation of unsaturated-zone solute-transport models for studies of agricultural chemicals

Seven unsaturated-zone solute-transport models were tested with two data sets to select models for use by the Agricultural Chemical Team of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The data sets were from a bromide tracer test near Merced, California, and an atrazine study in the White River Basin, Indiana. In this study the models are designated either as complex or simple based on the water flux algorithm. The complex models, HYDRUS2D, LEACHP, RZWQM, and VS2DT, use Richards' equation to simulate water flux and are well suited to process understanding. The simple models, CALF, GLEAMS, and PRZM, use a tipping-bucket algorithm and are more amenable to extrapolation because they require fewer input parameters. The purpose of this report is not to endorse a particular model, but to describe useful features, potential capabilities, and possible limitations that emerged from working with the model input data sets. More rigorous assessment of model applicability involves proper calibration, which was beyond the scope of this study. Uncalibrated ("cold") simulations were run using all seven models to predict the transport of bromide (Merced) and the transport and fate of atrazine and three of its transformation products (White River Basin). Among the complex models, HYDRUS2D successfully predicted both the surface retention and accumulation of bromide at depth at the Merced site, whereas RZWQM and VS2DT predicted only the latter. RZWQM predictions of atrazine were closest to observed values at the White River Basin site, where preferential flow has been observed. LEACHP predicted smaller solute concentrations than observed at both the Merced and White River Basin sites. Among the simple models, CALF predicted the highest values of atrazine and deethylatrazine at the measurement depth of 1.5 meters. CALF includes the Addiscott flow option for preferential flow, and also accepts user-specified dispersivity. PRZM underpredicted solute concentrations, probably because control of dispersion is a problem with this model. GLEAMS has a maximum simulation depth of 1.5 meters, which is limiting for mass-balance purposes because it creates a potential disconnect between unsaturated-zone transport and the water table. Of the models tested, RZWQM, HYDRUS2D, VS2DT, GLEAMS and PRZM had graphical user interfaces. Extensive documentation was available for RZWQM, HYDRUS2D, and VS2DT. RZWQM can explicitly simulate water and solute flux in macropores, and both HYDRUS2D and VS2DT can simulate water and solute flux in two dimensions. The version of RZWQM tested had a maximum simulation depth of 3 meters. The complex models simulate the formation, transport, and fate of degradates of up to three to five compounds including the parent, with the exception of VS2DT, which simulates the transport and fate of a single compound.

California, Indiana↗
USGS2003

Estimating spatial variability of recharge in southern New Jersey from unsaturated-zone measurements

Spatial variability of recharge in southern New Jersey was studied by sampling the unsat-urated zone at 48 sites distributed over approximately 930 square kilometers. Samples of unsaturated-zone sediment were collected during the summer and fall of 1996. Unsaturated flow was calculated using moisture-content data and estimates of conductivity and matric potential derived from sediment-size data. Matric forces were found to be important at about 70 percent of the sites despite the expectation that unsaturated flow in a humid climate is gravity driven. Upward water movement occurred at about 17 percent of the sites. The lower sediment layer at these sites consisted of sandy loam, indicating that upward movement can occur at depth only where the sediments are relatively fine-grained. At the other extreme, calculated flow at about 17 percent of the sites exceeded 250 centimeters per year. Because of the uncertainty inherent in unsaturated-flow calculations, the method provides only a scaling of recharge variability; however, the median calculated flow of 29.1 centimeters per year compares favorably with recharge estimates from previous water-budget studies. A map developed by spatial analysis of the recharge estimates identified an agricultural part of the study area where recharge was known to be low relative to recharge in other basins.

New Jersey↗
USGS2003

Nutrients in Shallow Ground Waters Beneath Relatively Undeveloped Areas in the Conterminous United States

Nutrient concentrations in shallow (well depth of 30 meters or less) ground waters of relatively undeveloped areas were evaluated to determine background conditions relative to agricultural and urban land uses. Lands comprising 67 percent or greater forest or range, 10 percent or less agricultural land, and 10 percent or less urban land were used to represent relatively undeveloped areas. Data subsets from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program (81 wells) and retrospective studies (320 wells) yielded 75th percentile nitrate concentrations of 0.51 and 1.1 milligrams per liter, respectively, in shallow ground water beneath relatively undeveloped areas. The value of 1.1 milligrams per liter is a reasonable upper bound estimate of relative background concentration of nitrate in shallow ground waters in the United States and incorporates effects of nominal nitrogen load to susceptible aquifers. Relative background concentration of nitrate is variable and depends in part on land use, rock type, and climate. Median nitrate concentration was significantly greater in ground water beneath rangeland (1.20 milligrams per liter) than beneath forest land (0.06 milligram per liter). Median nitrate concentration in ground water beneath rangeland was 1.4-2.7 milligrams per liter in susceptible aquifers, which consist of coarse-textured deposits or fractured rock. Increased relative background concentration of nitrate in rangeland areas likely results from evaporative concentration of nominal nitrogen load associated with natural organic and inorganic sources in hydrogeologically susceptible settings.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1998

Nitrate in Ground Waters of the United States--Assessing the Risk

Using data compiled by the National Water Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA), the USGS has evaluated the potential for nitrate contamination of ground waters in the United States. Soil-drainage characteristics and the amount of nitrogen contributed by fertilizer, manure, and atmospheric sources were found to markedly influence the concentration of nitrate in ground water. These two characteristics were compiled in a national map that shows patterns of risk for nitrate contamination of ground water. Areas with well-drained soils and high nitrogen input have the highest risk. Ground-water nitrate data generally verified the risk patterns shown on the national map. The verification analysis is based on over 10,000 samples collected through 1992.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1998

A national look at nitrate contamination of ground water

Ground water provides drinking water for more than one-half of the Nation's population (Solley and others, 1993), and is the sole source of drinking water for many rural communities and some large cities. In 1990, ground water accounted for 39 percent of water withdrawn for public supply for cities and towns and 96 percent of water withdrawn by self-supplied systems for domestic use. A variety of chemicals, including nitrate, can pass through the soil and potentially contaminate ground water. Nitrate comes from nitrogen, a plant nutrient supplied by inorganic fertilizer and animal manure. Additionally, airborne nitrogen compounds given off by industry and automobiles are deposited on the land in precipitation and dry particles. Other nonagricultural sources of nitrate include lawn fertilizers, septic systems, and domestic animals in residential areas. Beneath agricultural lands, nitrate is the primary form of nitrogen. It is soluble in water and can easily pass through soil to the ground-water table. Nitrate can persist in ground water for decades and accumulate to high levels as more nitrogen is applied to the land surface every year. Knowing where and what type of risks to ground water exist can alert water-resource managers and private users of the need to protect water supplies. Although nitrate generally is not an adult public-health threat, ingestion in drinking water by infants can cause low oxygen levels in the blood, a potentially fatal condition (Spalding and Exner, 1993). For this reason, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has established a drinking-water standard of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) nitrate as nitrogen (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1995). Nitrate concentrations in natural ground waters are usually less than 2 mg/L (Mueller and others, 1995).

Water Conditioning and Purification↗