Geology topics

Ayesha Genz

Publications and source records attributed to Ayesha Genz.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Population trends of native and non-native forest birds on the island of Molokai, Hawaii

Hawaiʻi’s avifauna has undergone profound changes over the past 1,000 years, with many endemic bird species driven to extinction and non-native introductions reshaping forest ecosystems. On the island of Molokaʻi, habitat degradation and the introduction of mosquito-borne disease, mainly avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), have caused extinctions and severe declines in native forest bird populations. To assess these changes, point-transect distance sampling surveys were initiated in 1979 and 1980 and repeated six times, most recently in 2021, covering a 3,527 ha area. This study analyzes species composition, population densities, abundances, and long-term trends for species with sufficient detections using log-linear regression. Since 1979–1980, a total of 17 non-native and 3 native species were detected across all six surveys. The non-native Warbling White-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ) had the highest density and abundance in every survey, while abundance of Red-billed Leiothrix ( Leiothrix lutea ) significantly trended upward. The Japanese Bush Warbler ( Horornis diphone ) irrupted in the survey area, increasing in abundance by more than 99% since 1979–1980. Among native species, ʻApapane ( Himatione sanguinea ) populations increased by 33%, while Hawaiʻi ʻAmakihi ( Chlorodrepanis virens ) declined by 78% from their peak in 1995. Federally threatened ʻIʻiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ), highly susceptible to avian malaria, have not been recorded on Molokaʻi since 2010, and the endemic Olomaʻo ( Myadestes lanaiensis ) has not been detected since 1980 and is possibly extinct. Our results underscore the ongoing conservation crisis for Molokaʻi’s forest birds and the continued vulnerability of native birds to disease and habitat loss.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Forest bird populations at the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Hawai'i

E ndemic Hawaiian forest birds have experienced dramatic population declines. The Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Refuge Complex) was established for the conservation of endangered forest birds and their habitats. Surveys have been conducted at two units of the Refuge Complex to monitor forest bird populations and their response to management actions. We analyzed survey data from 1987 to 2019 at the Hakalau Forest Unit (HFU) and from 1995 to 2019 at the Kona Forest Unit (KFU). We analyzed three strata at HFU: open-forest, closed-forest, and afforested-pasture, and two strata at KFU: upper (>1,524 m elevation) and lower (<1,524 m). In all years, ‘i‘iwi Vestiaria coccinea , ‘apapane Himatione sanguinea , and Hawai'i ‘amakihi Chlorodrepanis virens virens were the most abundant species at HFU. Three endangered forest bird species, Hawai'i ‘ākepa Loxops coccineus , ‘alawī Loxops mana (also known as Hawai'i creeper) and ‘akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus wilsoni , had much lower densities. The most abundant species at KFU was ‘apapane, followed by Hawai'i ‘amakihi at much lower densities. We found a continuation of several trends observed in previous analyses at HFU up to 2012, with most species’ trends upward in afforested-pasture stratum, stable in the open-forest stratum, and downward in the closed-forest stratum. However, more species were showing downward trends in all three strata during the most recent decade. Results were mixed at KFU, with most species’ trends downward in the upper stratum and upward in the lower stratum. Populations of endangered species were either locally extirpated at KFU or in numbers too low to reliably estimate population abundance. The Refuge Complex is important for conservation of forest birds on Hawai'i Island. Our results show that HFU supports the majority of three endangered forest bird species. Threats to forest birds at the Refuge Complex appear to be having a negative impact. These threats include habitat loss, disease, feral ungulates, and nonnative predators. Continuing and enhancing management actions, such as forest restoration and removal of invasive species, could help mitigate these impacts and allow the Refuge Complex to remain a key site for forest bird conservation in Hawai'i.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Divergent trends in distribution and abundance of landbirds in low and high elevation habitats of the Kaʻū Rainforest

Federal, state, and non-governmental partners resurveyed landbirds in the Kaʻū Rainforest on the Island of Hawai‘i in 2019. Point-transect distance sampling was conducted in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, Kaʻū Forest Reserve, Kapāpala Forest Reserve, and Kapāpala Cooperative Game Management Area. This is the first comprehensive survey of the region since 2008. Through a collaborative effort, monitoring transects were consolidated to provide a consistent, repeatable sampling frame for future surveys. We estimated landbird distribution, density, and abundance for eight surveys since 1976. Changes in species-specific densities were assessed using a log-linear regression to determine trends of the six most recent surveys since 2002. Trends were assessed in three strata: low elevation (<1,500 m), high elevation (≥1,500 m), and total survey area.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Evaluation of replicate sampling using hierarchical spatial modeling of population surveys accounting for imperfect detectability

Effective species management and conservation benefit from knowledge of species distribution and status. Surveys to obtain that information often involve replicate sampling, which increases survey effort and costs. We simultaneously modeled species distribution, abundance and spatial correlation, and compared the uncertainty in replicate abundance estimates of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) using hierarchical generalized additive models with a soap film smoother that incorporated random effects for visit. Based on survey coverage and detections, we selected the 2017 point-transect distance sampling survey on Mauna Kea, Hawai‘i Island, for our modeling. Our modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detections, control the effects of boundary features, and generate visit-specific density surface maps. We found that visit-specific smooths were nearly identical, indicating that little information was gained from a subsequent visit, and that most of the estimator uncertainty was derived from within-visit variability. Scaling back the palila survey to a single visit would halve the survey effort and logistical costs and increase efficiencies in data management and processing. Changing the sampling protocol warrants careful consideration and our findings may help management and regulatory agencies by maximizing efficiency and minimizing costs of surveying protocols, while providing guidelines on how to best collect information critical to species' conservation.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2023

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report↗

USGS2022

Density surface and excursion sets modeling as an approach to estimating population densities

Effective species management and conservation require knowledge of species distribution and status. We used point-transect distance sampling surveys of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a honeycreeper currently found only on the Island of Hawai'i, USA, to generate robust estimates of total abundance and simultaneously model the distribution, abundance, and spatial correlation of the species as a density surface model (DSM). Point-transect distance sampling is a widely applied method to estimate bird densities accounting for imperfect detection probability. For the DSM we used a generalized additive model framework and soap film smoothers to control the effects of boundary features. This modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detection and propagate detection probability uncertainty. We compared the uncertainty in palila abundance estimates using standard point-transect distance sampling to estimates from the DSM. The DSM, accounting for both distance-sampling-derived detection probability variance and the generalized additive model density estimate variance, did not improve population estimator precision; however, it provided insight into the species' distribution, density, and uncertainty. We also applied excursion sets analysis to objectively identify areas where the species occurs in high densities. The 2017 global population of <2,000 individuals was limited to an excursion area of 1,500 ha. Our findings can help management and regulatory agencies by simultaneously mapping a species' distribution and density, improving survey protocols, and providing information important to species conservation.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

2019-2021 Palila abundance estimates and trend

The palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) population on Mauna Kea Volcano, Hawai‘i Island, was estimated from annual surveys in 2019−2021, and a trend analysis was performed on survey data from 1998−2021. The 2019 population was estimated at 1,030−1,899 birds (point estimate: 1,432), the 2020 population was estimated at 964−1,700 birds (point estimate: 1,312), and the 2021 population was estimated at 452−940 birds (point estimate: 678). Since 1998, a visual inspection of the size of the area containing palila detections on the western slope based on the minimum/maximum elevations has not shown a substantial change, indicating that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2005, palila numbers fluctuated between 4,000 and 6,000, followed by a steep decline. After 2010, palila estimates stabilized around an abundance of 2,000 with a much slower rate of decline. The decline during 1998−2021 was on average 229 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall downward trend in abundance. Over the 23-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to an 89% decline in the population.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Forest bird populations at the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Hawai‘i

Endemic Hawaiian forest birds have experienced dramatic population declines. The Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (BINWRC) was created for conservation of endangered Hawaiian forest birds and their habitats. Surveys have been conducted at two units of BINWRC to monitor forest bird populations and their response to management actions. We analyzed survey data from 1987 to 2019 at the Hakalau Forest Unit (HFU) and from 1995 to 2019 at the Kona Forest Unit (KFU). We analyzed three strata at HFU: open-forest, closed-forest, and pasture, and two strata at the KFU: upper (>1524 m elevation) and lower (<1524 m). In all years, ‘i‘iwi (Drepanis coccinea), ‘apapane (Himatione sanguinea), and Hawai‘i ‘amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens virens) were the most abundant species at HFU. The three endangered forest bird species, Hawai‘i ‘ākepa (Loxops coccineus), ‘alawī (Loxops mana, also known as Hawai‘i creeper) and ‘akiapōlā‘au (Hemignathus wilsoni), had much lower densities. The most abundant species at KFU was ‘apapane, followed by Hawai‘i ‘amakihi and warbling white-eye (Zosterops japonicus) at much lower densities. At HFU we found a continuation of several trends observed in previous analyses from 1987–2012, with most species’ trends upward in pasture stratum, stable in the open-forest stratum, and downward in the closed-forest stratum. However, when we looked at the most recent decade at HFU, more species were showing downward trends in all three strata. At KFU results were mixed, with more species’ trends downward in the upper stratum and more species’ trends upward in the lower stratum. Populations of endangered forest species were either locally extirpated at KFU or in numbers too low to reliably estimate population densities. Both units in the BINWRC are important for conservation of forest birds on Hawai‘i Island, and our results show that HFU supports the majority of the three endangered forest bird species found on Hawai‘i Island. Our analysis also shows the importance of continuous monitoring and timely analysis to track forest bird populations. With the additional data provided by continued surveys, we determined conclusive population trends for species whose trends were previously inconclusive. Knowing current population densities, abundances, and trends allows managers to evaluate and adapt management actions to support forest bird conservation at the BINWRC.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

2021 Tinian Island forest bird abundance estimates

The U.S. Navy, through Micronesian Environmental Services, surveyed landbirds in the Military Lease Area on Tinian Island in May and June 2021 using point-transect distance sampling methods. There were 2,074 individuals of 14 species detected during 123 point counts. Six species were detected during >50% of the counts and were observed at relatively high abundances, while eight species occurred at <50% of the counts and were uncommon to rare. Densities of native landbirds in the Military Lease Area ranged from the uncommon Mariana kingfisher ( Todiramphus albicilla ) at 0.46 birds/ha (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.33–0.63) to the very abundant bridled white-eye ( Zosterops conspicillatus ) at 102.63 birds/ha (95%CI = 86.70–122.91). Most distances recorded during the 2021 Military Lease Area survey were rounded to distance intervals of 0 and 5. Measuring exact distances of detected animals is preferable to collecting distances grouped into bins or rounding. Direct comparison with previously published estimates was not possible because of changes in the sampling frame; however, densities of six species were greater, two were smaller, and one was similar to the 2008 survey estimates for the Hagoi, Diablo, and Masalog regions. Our findings indicate that the landbird community in the Military Lease Area appears to be dynamic and resilient.

Military Lease Area, Tinian Island↗

USGS2017

Hawai`i forest bird monitoring database: Database dictionary

Between 1976 and 1981, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (now U.S. Geological Survey – Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center [USGS-PIERC]) conducted systematic surveys of forest birds and plant communities on all the main Hawaiian Islands, except O‘ahu, as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Surveys (HFBS). Results of this monumental effort have guided conservation efforts and provided the basis for many plant and bird recovery plans and land acquisition decisions in Hawai‘i. Unfortunately, these estimates and range maps are now seriously outdated, hindering modern conservation decision-making and recovery planning. HFBIDP staff work closely with land managers and others to identify the location of bird populations in need of protection. In addition, HFBIDP is able to assess field collection methods, census areas, and survey frequency for their effectiveness. Survey and geographical data are refined and released in successive versions, each more inclusive, detailed, and accurate than the previous release. Incrementally releasing data gives land managers and survey coordinators reasonably good data to work with early on rather than waiting for the release of ‘perfect’ data, ‘perfectly’ analyzed. Consequently, summary results are available in a timely manner.

Technical Report↗