Geology topics

Annette E. Evans

Publications and source records attributed to Annette E. Evans.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

The future of biocontrol in the Anthropocene: A review of climate change impacts on biocontrol agents and their hosts

Biological control, the practice of using one species (biocontrol agent) to control the population of another (a host or prey species, hereafter target), can be a successful method to reduce pest species in agricultural and natural systems worldwide. Successful biocontrol agents often share a deep evolutionary history with their targets that results in high target specificity and synchronized phenology. However, with rapidly changing climatic conditions, users of biocontrol agents have questioned how climate change will affect both well-established and more recent biological control relationships. Using a meta-analysis of data collected from a systematic literature review, we evaluated the evidence for the impact of changing temperatures on the efficacy of biocontrol agents and corresponding responses in their targets. Overall, most studies of climate change impacts on biocontrol agents take place in the laboratory and focus on arthropod agents that are parasitoids. Results from our meta-analysis reveal that changes in temperature are projected to impact biocontrol agents and their targets similarly, with no overall significant changes to biocontrol agent or target performance. However, our results also show that temperature responses vary widely across study systems, as illustrated by case studies showing both positive, neutral, and negative effects of temperature on biocontrol agent efficacy, as well as variation in responses across the three core biological control measures of success: survival, reproduction, and efficacy. Our work highlights important knowledge gaps including how climate change will affect both biocontrol agents and their targets simultaneously. Additionally, we find that most current studies of climate impacts examined temperature relationships, predominantly of agricultural biocontrol agents. Increasing the breadth of studies is crucial for understanding the potential for climate change to affect the success of current and future biological control programs.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2024

Boundary spanning increases knowledge and action on invasive species in a changing climate

Challenges associated with global change stressors on ecosystems have prompted calls to improve actionable science, including through boundary-spanning activities, which aim to build connections and communication between researchers and natural resource practitioners. By synthesizing and translating research and practitioner knowledge, boundary-spanning activities could support proactive, research-informed conservation practice, but the success of these efforts is rarely evaluated. Using repeat survey data from the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network, a boundary-spanning organization, we evaluate whether participating in NE RISCC affected practitioners' knowledge, actions and priorities related to invasive species management under a changing climate. Our survey results suggest that practitioners who participate in NE RISCC have greater knowledge about invasive species and climate change and are incorporating climate change in more ways into their invasive species management. We also found NE RISCC membership affected the perceived usefulness of informational resources, with NE RISCC members more frequently identifying research syntheses and targeted workshops (both are common products used by NE RISCC to translate science into practice and share manager knowledge) as useful compared to non-members. Practitioners who participate in NE RISCC also identified somewhat different research priorities, with non-members and short-term members more frequently identifying range-shifting neonative species and their impacts on native communities as higher priorities compared to long-term NE RISCC members. NE RISCC research activities and outreach materials have consistently framed range-shifting neonative species as comparatively low risk, suggesting that this information has influenced practitioner's perception of risk. Practical implication : Although real-world impacts of applied ecology are notoriously difficult to quantify, this analysis illustrates that if research results are actively translated, they can affect the knowledge and actions of natural resource practitioners. These impacts illustrate the potential for boundary-spanning efforts to address other global change challenges to conservation.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

USGS2024

Identifying new invasive plants in the face of climate change: A focus on sleeper species

Sleeper populations are established populations of introduced species whose population growth is limited by one or more abiotic or biotic conditions. Sleeper populations pose an invasion risk if a change in those limiting conditions, such as climate change, enables population growth and invasion. With thousands of established introduced species, it is critical that we identify and prioritize potential sleepers. Here, we identified introduced plants established in the northeastern United States with high impacts and the potential to expand with climate change. Of 1795 introduced plants established in one or more northeastern states, we focused on 118 taxa regulated by one or more states outside the Northeast plus 61 taxa recorded as invasive globally and under consideration for regulation in the Northeast. We used the environmental impact classification for alien taxa framework to quantify negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts reported in the scientific literature for these 169 taxa. We compared mean minimum winter temperature and annual precipitation where the species were abundant with current and future climate in the Northeast to evaluate whether climate change could increase risk. We identified 49 plants with ecological impacts linked to loss of native diversity and 94 plants with socioeconomic impacts. 81 species showed an increase in climatic suitability for abundant populations with climate change. Using ecological impact, increased climate suitability, and presence in fewer than 20 Northeastern counties, we highlight 18 species as high priorities for potential management in the Northeast. This approach can inform climate-smart, proactive management of sleeper populations before they become invasive.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2023

Shifting hotspots: Climate change projected to drive contractions and expansions of invasive plant abundance habitats

Aim Preventing the spread of range-shifting invasive species is a top priority for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Invasive plants become abundant and cause negative impacts in only a fraction of their introduced ranges, yet projections of invasion risk are almost exclusively derived from models built using all non-native occurrences and neglect abundance information. Location Eastern USA. Methods We compiled abundance records for 144 invasive plant species from five major growth forms. We fit over 600 species distribution models based on occurrences of abundant plant populations, thus projecting which areas in the eastern United States (U.S.) will be most susceptible to invasion under current and +2°C climate change. Results We identified current invasive plant hotspots in the Great Lakes region, mid-Atlantic region, and along the northeast coast of Florida and Georgia, each climatically suitable for abundant populations of over 30 invasive plant species. Under a +2°C climate change scenario, hotspots will shift an average of 213 km, predominantly towards the northeast U.S., where some areas are projected to become suitable for up to 21 new invasive plant species. Range shifting species could exacerbate impacts of up to 40 invasive species projected to sustain populations within existing hotspots. On the other hand, within the eastern U.S., 62% of species will experience decreased suitability for abundant populations with climate change. This trend is consistent across five plant growth forms. Main Conclusions We produced species range maps and state-specific watch lists from these analyses, which can inform proactive regulation, monitoring, and management of invasive plants most likely to cause future ecological impacts. Additionally, areas we identify as becoming less suitable for abundant populations could be prioritized for restoration of climate-adapted native species. This research provides a first comprehensive assessment of risk from abundant plant invasions across the eastern U.S.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2023

Modeling habitat suitability across different levels of invasive plant abundance

Predicting where invasive plants are likely to spread and become abundant is critical for informing invasive plant management. Species distribution models are a key tool for informing the geography of invasion risk, but most distribution models are limited by their use of presence data, including no information on invader population abundance. In this study, we ask how habitat suitability varies for different levels of abundance for three invasive plants: stiltgrass ( Microstegium vimineum ), sericea lespedeza ( Lespedeza cuneata ), and privet ( Ligustrum sinense ). For each species, we used an ensemble distribution modeling approach to compare suitability for invasion estimated from subsets of point location data: all presences vs. locations with percent cover ≥ 1%, ≥ 5%, ≥ 10%, ≥ 25%, and ≥ 50%. For all species, the total area predicted as suitable for abundant populations was 32%–68% less than the area predicted as suitable for presence. For stiltgrass and sericea lespedeza, the area suitable for invasion decreased when predicted from higher levels of abundance, whereas for privet, suitable area was similar across abundance levels. Stiltgrass and sericea lespedeza are therefore likely to become highly abundant in a smaller portion of their ranges, while privet could become highly abundant anywhere it can establish at low abundance. Different environmental predictors explained suitability for presence versus abundance, suggesting the environmental niche associated with presence differs from that associated with high population abundance. Analyses of more species and growth forms are still needed, but our results combined with previous studies consistently show that fitting distribution models to point locations with ≥ 5–10% cover refines range maps and can produce a more targeted assessment of invasion risk.

Biological Invasions↗