Geology topics

Anne C. Tillery

Publications and source records attributed to Anne C. Tillery.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey Colorado River Basin science and technology collaboration meetings on drought (2021)—Synthesis of findings

Ongoing, prolonged, and severe drought and water overuse during the first two decades of the 21st century have reduced water supplies of the Colorado River Basin, with effects cascading to ecosystems and human communities throughout the basin. In June and July 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology initiative team held a series of 12 collaboration meetings with USGS scientists and managers to discuss complicated, integrated science challenges and solutions related to drought in the Colorado River Basin. These Science and Technology collaboration meetings were structured to identify challenges experienced by meeting participants when working on complex problems, explore opportunities for coproducing scientific information, and envision future collaborative programs that leverage new technology. The 12 meetings were attended by 79 USGS staff representing 43 unique affiliations (for example, USGS science centers, mission areas, and regional offices). Meeting participants submitted 865 individual responses to six general discussion prompt topics (“Challenges,” “Knowledge Gaps,” “Existing Capabilities,” “Strategies and Actions,” “Example Applications,” and “Next Steps”) using a structured online collaboration tool. However, specific questions or tasks from each general discussion prompt varied by meeting topic. Terms from the USGS Thesaurus ( https://apps.usgs.gov/thesaurus/ ) and USGS Data Lifecycle Model ( https://www.usgs.gov/data-management/data-lifecycle ) were used to identify and summarize participant responses relevant to science integration, stakeholder engagement, and information management technology. From these responses, opportunities for the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology initiative to facilitate science integration in the Colorado River Basin are highlighted in this report, including (a) pursuing specific interdisciplinary research topics that require integrating knowledge across spatial and temporal scales, (b) connecting scientists across disciplines, (c) reducing barriers to stakeholder engagement, (d) identifying new technologies, and (e) facilitating data access. Multiple strategies for designing future Science and Technology collaboration meetings are also outlined in this circular to better collect and analyze participant responses.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2024

Pre-fire assessment of post-fire debris flow hazards in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed

Background Wildfires are increasing in size and severity due to climate change combined with overstocked forests. Fire increases the likelihood of debris flows, posing significant threats to life, property, and water supplies. Aims We conducted a debris-flow hazard assessment of the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed (SFMW) to answer two questions: (1) where are debris flows most likely to occur; and (2) how much debris might they produce? We also document the influence of fuel treatments on fire severity and debris flows. Methods We modelled post-fire debris-flow likelihood and volume in 103 sub-basins for 2-year, 5-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation rainfalls following modelled low-, moderate-, and high-severity wildfires. Key results Post-fire debris-flow likelihoods were >90% in all but the lowest fire and rain scenarios. Sub-basins with fuel treatments had the lowest burn severities, debris-flow likelihoods, and sediment volumes, but treatment effects decreased with increased fire severity and rain intensity. Conclusions Post-fire debris flows with varying debris volumes are likely to occur following wildfire in the SFMW, but fuel treatments can reduce likelihood and volume. Implications Future post-fire debris flows will continue to threaten water supplies, but fuel reduction treatments and debris-flow mitigation provide opportunities to minimise effects.

New Mexico↗

USGS2024

Redistribution of debris-flow sediment following severe wildfire and floods in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, USA

Severe fire on steep slopes increases stormwater runoff and the occurrence of runoff-initiated debris flows. Predicting locations of debris flows and their downstream effects on trunk streams requires watershed-scale high-resolution topographic data. Intense precipitation in July and September 2013 following the June 2011 Las Conchas Fire in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, led to widespread debris flows in the watershed of Rito de los Frijoles. We differenced lidar Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) collected in 2010 and 2016 to map subwatersheds experiencing debris flows and changes in elevation of the trunk stream. Debris flow occurrence was well predicted by previous assessments of debris-flow hazard; debris flows occurred in 7 of 9 sub-basins where the debris-flow hazard was above 60% for the 25-year rainfall event, and in 0 of 21 basins where debris flow hazard was less than 60%. Debris flows resulted in fan deposition at the confluence with the trunk stream followed by transport during three documented floods. The bed of the 22 km trunk stream increased in elevation by a mean of 0.29 m, but the local change in thalweg elevation was controlled by inputs of water and sediment and longitudinal variation in gradient. Downstream of the mouths of tributaries with debris flows, the thalweg of the trunk stream rose as much as 2 m. Downstream of the mouths of tributaries without debris flows the thalweg of the main stem degraded by as much as 2 m, mobilizing sediment that was then deposited further downstream where the gradient of the trunk stream decreases. In conclusion, the transport of sediment generated by debris flows was predictably related to spatial variation in sediment supply, discharge and gradient.

New Mexico↗

USGS2023

Regression equations for estimating the 4-day, 3-year low-flow frequency and adjusted harmonic mean streamflow at ungaged sites for unregulated, perennial streams in New Mexico

The Federal Clean Water Act stipulates that States adopt water-quality standards to protect and enhance the quality of water in those States and to protect water quality through the creation of planning documents and discharge permits. Critical low-flow values, including the 4-day, 3-year low-flow frequency (4Q3) and harmonic mean streamflows, are necessary for developing those planning documents and permits. The U.S. Geological Survey computed the 4Q3 and adjusted harmonic mean streamflows using data from 96 streamgages on perennial streams, and regression equations were developed for the estimation of these parameters at ungaged, perennial streams in the State of New Mexico using weighted least-squares regression and readily accessed basin and climatic characteristics. Six equations were developed for the 4Q3 statistic, and five equations were developed for the adjusted harmonic mean statistic. Separate equations were developed for sites located in basins with mean elevations equal to or greater than 8,000 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (except where noted as the North American Vertical Datum of 1988), as well as for sites on streams that are tributary to the San Juan River. Pseudo R-squared values ranged from 0.53 to 0.87 (4Q3) and adjusted R-squared values ranged from 0.69 to 0.89 (adjusted harmonic mean). For sites in basins with mean elevations of less than 8,000 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (except where noted as the North American Vertical Datum of 1988), equations were developed based on contributing drainage area size. Drainage area, mean basin elevation, basinwide mean annual precipitation, and mean basin slope were found to have relations to the 4Q3; drainage area, mean basin elevation, basinwide mean annual precipitation, mean basin slope, and mean basinwide precipitation for the winter period, defined as the months of October through April, were found to have relations to the adjusted harmonic mean. Comparison to previous 4Q3 regression equations using fit statistics indicate an overall improvement in performance.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

Addressing stakeholder science needs for integrated drought science in the Colorado River Basin

Stakeholders need scientific data, analysis, and predictions of how drought the will impact the Colorado River Basin in a format that is continuously updated, intuitive, and easily accessible. The Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Pilot Project was formed to demonstrate the effectiveness of addressing complex problems through stakeholder involvement and use of 21st century technology to deliver integrated science. By identifying stakeholders and their science needs, the project team is better able to prioritize integrated science and design science delivery systems to support better adaptation and management measures for the long-term drought occurring in this basin. The project team is conducting outreach and coordination with stakeholders to meet the current and future science and technology needs in the basin and fulfill the USGS vision of integrated drought science throughout the Basin. As the USGS works to streamline the approach for sharing integrated drought science in the Colorado River Basin, the project is looking for input, involvement, and collaboration to ensure the science provided works for stakeholders.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi↗

USGS2022

Rocky Mountain Region Science Exchange 2020—EarthMAP and the Colorado River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rocky Mountain Region (RMR) hosted USGS scientists, managers, program coordinators, and leadership team members for a virtual Science Exchange during September 15–17, 2020. The Science Exchange had 216 registered participants and included 48 talks over the 3-day period. Invited speakers presented information about the novel USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) concept. Scientists in the RMR and other regions showcased their research and participated in discussions related to the EarthMAP concept and EarthMAP applications. In addition, the Colorado River Basin Pilot Project, the first formal EarthMAP pilot project, was unveiled during the Science Exchange. Many of the products designed during the RMR Science Exchange were done so with the EarthMAP – Colorado River Basin Pilot Project in mind. This report summarizes the organization and objectives of the Science Exchange, highlights key points from session presentations, panel discussions, and breakout sessions, and, most importantly, discusses momentum generated for the EarthMAP – Colorado River Basin Pilot Project.

Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2022

Landscape change, fire and erosion

New Mexico has a dynamic landscape, which will become even more so in response to climate change over the next 50 years, in part because of increasing incidence of wildfire. As the climate changes to warmer conditions, less rainfall will infiltrate into aquifers, leading to increased overland runoff. Landform processes can be complex, but in general, the predicted changes in climate and precipitation will lead to increased flooding, increased upland erosion caused by runoff, and increased downstream sediment deposition. Canyons and mesas, small basins or valleys filled with sediment will be particularly affected. Rapid rearrangement of sediments by water is disruptive and potentially hazardous to ecosystems and societies. Dramatic examples of accelerated erosion following the Whitewater-Baldy, Las Conchas and other wildfires here in New Mexico illustrate the types of hazards created when forested landscapes are severely burned. Post-wildfire erosion is typically initiated by intense rainfall events. Given that both the number of wildfires, and rainfall intensities are likely to increase as the climate warms, New Mexico can expect to see increases in widespread erosion and sedimentation across and downstream from upland forested areas in the state. The large volume of sediment predicted to be on the move will be of concern for many reasons including filling reservoirs, choking channels, blocking or destroying infrastructure and positive feedback loops that lead to further reductions in slope stability.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

Soils

Soils play a strong role in determining how New Mexico’s diverse landscapes will respond to climate change. Soil cover acts like a sponge, holding in water that falls as rain or snow. The presence of soil supports vegetation, and substantially reduces runoff and erosion. Soil enhances other processes such as infiltration of water and aquifer recharge. Soils can be damaged by a warming climate. Loss of vegetation in the Northwest High Desert and Eastern Plains, where soils are not well developed and easily damaged, will lead to dustier conditions in much of the state. On mountain hillslopes, the loss of vegetation cover in response to ongoing climate change will increase soil erosion, which then increases hillslope runoff. This, in turn, causes additional increases in soil erosion and bedrock exposure, which can largely prevent widespread recolonization by most plants, including trees. Soils on mountain hillslopes that face south, which are typically hotter and drier, will be damaged sooner by a warming climate than those on generally north-facing hillslopes that are slightly cooler and moister. Soils take many thousands of years to form, so these hillslopes will increasingly support sparse forests, or, in some circumstances, be entirely deforested. These changes are already well underway in some mountains in New Mexico.

New Mexico↗

USGS2019

Controls on debris‐flow initiation on burned and unburned hillslopes during an exceptional rainstorm in southern New Mexico, USA

AbstractUsing observations from 688 debris flows, we analyse the hydrologic and landscape characteristics that influenced debris‐flow initiation mechanisms and locations in a watershed that had been partially burned by the 2012 Whitewater‐Baldy Complex Fire in the Gila Mountains, southern New Mexico. Debris flows can initiate due to different processes. Slopes can fail as discrete landslides and then become fluidized and move downstream as debris flows (landslide initiated) or progressive bulking of sediment from a distributed area can become channelized and concentrated as it moves downslope (runoff generated). In this study, we have an unusual opportunity to investigate both types of debris‐flow initiation mechanisms in our observations of debris flows, triggered by an exceptional rainstorm in the autumn of 2013. Additionally, we compare our observations with those of a dataset of 1138 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, triggered during the same weather system. We found that runoff‐generated debris flows dominated in burn areas, and runoff required to start these flows could be well characterized by the Shields stress. Landslide‐initiated debris flows were dominant in unburned areas. Debris‐flow densities were tied to total rainfall and precipitation intensities. Like the observations in the Colorado Front Range, debris‐flow initiation locations were found primarily in areas of relatively sparse vegetation on south‐facing slopes between 25 and 40°, and with upslope contributing areas less than 1000 m 2 . In terms of preferential locations for debris‐flow initiations, 2013 vegetation coverage, approximated by Green–Red Vegetation Index metrics, proved to be more influential than the 2012 burn‐severity designation. The uniformity of observations between our study area and those in the Colorado Front Range indicate that the underlying hydrologic and landscape patterns of the debris‐flow initiation locations documented in these studies could be applicable to the wider southwest and Rocky Mountain regions.

New Mexico↗

USGS2018

Effects of hillslope gully stabilization on erosion and sediment production in the Torreon Wash watershed, New Mexico, 2009–12

Sediment erosion and deposition in two sets of paired (treated and untreated) upland drainages in the Torreon Wash watershed, upper Rio Puerco Basin, New Mexico, were examined over a 3 1/2-year period from spring 2009 through fall 2012. The objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of shallow, loose-stone check dams, or “one-rock dams,” as a hillslope gully erosion stabilization and mitigation method, and its potential for retaining upland eroded soils and decreasing delivery of sediment to lower ephemeral stream channels. Two high-resolution topographic surveys, completed at the beginning and end of the study period, were used to assess the effects of the mitigation measures at paired-drainage sites in both Penistaja Arroyo and Papers Wash watersheds, and at six main-stem-channel cross-section clusters along Penistaja Arroyo and Torreon Wash in the Torreon Wash watershed. For both drainage pairs, the treated drainage had greater sediment aggradation near the channel than the untreated drainage. Erosion was the dominant geomorphic process in the untreated Penistaja Arroyo drainage, whereas aggradation was the dominant process in the other three drainages. For the Penistaja Arroyo paired drainages, the treated site showed a 51-percent increase in area aggraded and 67-percent increase in volume aggraded per area analyzed over the untreated site. Both Papers Wash drainages showed net aggradation, but with similar treatment effect, with the treated site showing a 29-percent increase in area aggraded and 60-percent increase in volume aggraded per area analyzed over the untreated site. In the untreated Penistaja Arroyo drainage, the calculated minimum erosion rate was 0.0055 inches per year (in/yr; 0.14 millimeters per year [mm/yr]), whereas the calculated aggradation rates for the three drainages for which aggradation was the dominant geomorphic process were 0.0063 in/yr (0.16 mm/yr) for the Penistaja Arroyo treated drainage, 0.012 in/yr (0.31 mm/yr) for the Papers Wash untreated drainage, and 0.988 in/yr (2.51 mm/yr) for the Papers Wash treated drainage. Changes in the channel cross section along the main-stem Penistaja Arroyo and Torreon Wash were also examined. Channel-bank slumping and erosion of previously deposited bed material were apparent sources for sediment suspended in ephemeral streamflow. Cross-sectional channel surveys indicated examples of both erosion and deposition along each channel over the study period. Because the drainage area of the treated drainages is small compared to that of the Torreon Wash watershed, the upland mitigation measures would not be expected to measurably affect short-term concentrations of suspended sediment in main-stem channels. One-rock-dam mitigation structures in the upland drainages appear to have resulted in a decrease in sediment delivery to the main-stem channel. One-rock-dam mitigation structures may affect streamflow through their influence on runoff volume (via infiltration) and runoff rate (via detention), both of which may vary with time after structure installation.

New Mexico↗

USGS2018

Estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards prior to wildfire using a statistical analysis of historical distributions of fire severity from remote sensing data

Following wildfire, mountainous areas of the western United States are susceptible to debris flow during intense rainfall. Convective storms that can generate debris flows in recently burned areas may occur during or immediately after the wildfire, leaving insufficient time for development and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a method for estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards prior to wildfire using historical data to define the range of potential fire severities for a given location based on the statistical distribution of severity metrics obtained from remote sensing. Estimates of debris-flow likelihood, magnitude, and triggering rainfall threshold based upon the statistically simulated fire severity data provide hazard predictions consistent with those calculated from fire severity data collected after wildfire. Simulated fire severity data also produce hazard estimates that replicate observed debris-flow occurrence, rainfall conditions, and magnitude at a monitored site in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. Future applications of this method should rely upon a range of potential fire severity scenarios for improved pre-fire estimates of debris-flow hazard. The method presented here is also applicable to modeling other post-fire hazards, such as flooding and erosion risk, and for quantifying trends in observed fire severity in a changing climate.

California, Colorado, Washington↗

USGS2017

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity–duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity–duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2016

Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessments

Wildfires can increase the frequency and magnitude of catastrophic debris flows. Integrated, proactive natural hazard assessment would therefore characterize landscapes based on the potential for the occurrence and interactions of wildfires and postwildfire debris flows. This chapter presents a new modeling effort that can quantify the variability surrounding a key input to postwildfire debris-flow modeling, the amount of watershed burned at moderate to high severity, in a prewildfire context. The use of stochastic wildfire simulation captures variability surrounding the timing and location of ignitions, fire weather patterns, and ultimately the spatial patterns of watershed area burned. Model results provide for enhanced estimates of postwildfire debris-flow hazard in a prewildfire context, and multiple hazard metrics are generated to characterize and contrast hazards across watersheds. Results can guide mitigation efforts by allowing planners to identify which factors may be contributing the most to the hazard rankings of watersheds.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards—A prewildfire evaluation for the Jemez Mountains, north-central New Mexico

Wildfire can substantially increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire or subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known, probabilities of fire and debris‑flow occurrence for given locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris - flow hazards in the event of a large - scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Jemez Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in both the unburned and previously burned areas of the Jemez Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris - flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Forest Service. Of the 4,998 subbasins modeled for this study, computed debris-flow probabilities in 671 subbasins were greater than 80 percent in response to the 100 - year recurrence interval, 30-minute duration rainfall event. These subbasins ranged in size from 0.01 to 6.57 square kilometers (km 2 ), with an average area of 0.29 km 2 , and were mostly steep, upstream tributaries to larger channels in the area. Modeled debris-flow volumes in 465 subbasins were greater than 10,000 cubic meters (m 3 ), and 14 of those subbasins had modeled debris‑flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 . The rankings of integrated relative debris - flow hazard indexes for each subbasin were generated by multiplying the individual subbasin values for debris - flow volume, debris‑flow probability, and average burn probability. The subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent typically are large, upland tributaries to canyons and channels primarily in the Upper Rio Grande and Rio Grande-Santa Fe watershed areas. No subbasins in this group have basin areas less than 1.0 km 2 . Many of these areas already had significant mass‑wasting episodes following the Las Conchas Fire in 2011. Other subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent are scattered throughout the Jemez River watershed area, including some subbasins in the interior of the Valles Caldera. Only a few subbasins in the top integrated hazard index group are in the Rio Chama watershed area. This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In north‑central New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being done to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was designed to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

New Mexico↗

USGS2016

Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards: a prewildfire evaluation for the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas, central New Mexico

Wildfire can drastically increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although there is no way to know the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire, or the subsequent rainfall intensity and duration before it happens, probabilities of fire and debris-flow occurrence for different locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling efforts. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious, potential, debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in the unburned Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The locations of the greatest debris-flow hazards correlate with the areas of steepest slopes and simulated crown-fire behavior. The four subbasins with the highest computed debris-flow probabilities (greater than 98 percent) were all in the Manzano Mountains, two flowing east and two flowing west. Volumes in sixteen subbasins were greater than 50,000 square meters and most of these were in the central Manzanos and the western facing slopes of the Sandias. Five subbasins on the west-facing slopes of the Sandia Mountains, four of which have downstream reaches that lead into the outskirts of the City of Albuquerque, are among subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings. The bulk of the remaining subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings are located along the highest and steepest slopes of the Manzano Mountains. One of the subbasins is several miles upstream from the community of Tajique and another is several miles upstream from the community of Manzano, both on the eastern slopes of the Manzano Mountains. This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In northern New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being carried out to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was initiated to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

New Mexico↗

USGS2013

Postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2012 Little Bear Fire, south-central New Mexico

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed of the debris-flow potential from 56 drainage basins burned by the Little Bear Fire in south-central New Mexico in June 2012. The Little Bear Fire burned approximately 179 square kilometers (km 2 ) (44,330 acres), including about 143 km2 (35,300 acres) of National Forest System lands of the Lincoln National Forest. Within the Lincoln National Forest, about 72 km 2 (17,664 acres) of the White Mountain Wilderness were burned. The burn area also included about 34 km 2 (8,500 acres) of private lands. Burn severity was high or moderate on 53 percent of the burn area. The area burned is at risk of substantial postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. A postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the Little Bear Fire was performed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest. A set of two empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burn area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burn area. The models incorporate measures of areal burn extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. Relative hazard rankings of postwildfire debris flows were produced by summing the estimated probability and volume ranking to illustrate those areas with the highest potential occurrence of debris flows with the largest volumes. The probability that a drainage basin could produce debris flows and the volume of a possible debris flow at the basin outlet were estimated for three design storms: (1) a 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 27 millimeters (mm) (a 50 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); (2) a 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 42 mm (a 10 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); and (3) a 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 51 mm (a 4 percent chance of occurrence in any given year). Thirty-nine percent of the 56 drainage basins modeled have a high (greater than 80 percent) probability of debris flows in response to the 2-year design storm; 80 percent of the modeled drainage basins have a high probability of debris flows in response to the 25-year design storm. For debris-flow volume, 7 percent of the modeled drainage basins have an estimated debris-flow volume greater than 100,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) in response to the 2-year design storm; 9 percent of the drainage basins are included in the greater than 100,000 m 3 category for both the 10-year and the 25-year design storms. Drainage basins in the greater than 100,000 m 3 volume category also received the highest combined hazard ranking. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be needed prior to rainstorms within these drainage basins, their outlets, or areas downstream from these drainage basins within the 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

New Mexico↗

USGS2012

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) to greater than 500,000 m 3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m 3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow Creek, Iron Creek, and West Fork Mogollon Creek. Drainage basins with estimated debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 for the 25-year-recurrence event, 24 percent of the basins modeled, also include tributaries to Deep Creek, Mineral Creek, Gilita Creek, West Fork Gila River, Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek, among others. Basins with the highest combined probability and volume relative hazard rankings for the 25-year-recurrence rainfall include tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, Willow Creek, West Fork Gila River, West Fork Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek. Debris flows from Whitewater, Mineral, and Willow Creeks could affect the southwestern New Mexico communities of Glenwood, Alma, and Willow Creek. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability following the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. It is being provided because of the need for timely "best science" information. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

New Mexico↗