Geology topics

Anna K. Liljedahl

Publications and source records attributed to Anna K. Liljedahl.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Climate change risks to freshwater subsistence fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and uncertainty from broad whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Modeled streamflow response to scenarios of Tundra Lake water withdrawal and seasonal climate extremes, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

On the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in Northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface-water storage define watershed hydrological processes, which are increasingly subject to changes both in climate and land-use. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for construction of infrastructure related to resource extraction (primarily ice roads and industrial operations). However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km² Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May-August), including minimum 7-day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre-perturbation conditions and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low-rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, 1 to 3 summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (56 - 69%) than LWW alone (44 - 58%). Decadal-long consecutive LWW resulted in a new equilibrium in low-flow and seasonal runoff after the third year of LWW that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced contributing area (54% of the watershed area) and limited fish passage throughout summer. Our results highlight that LWW is not offset by same-year snowmelt for lake water levels and streamflow as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial lake water withdrawals.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Detection and assessment of a large and potentially tsunamigenic periglacial landslide in Barry Arm, Alaska

The retreat of glaciers in response to global warming has the potential to trigger landslides in glaciated regions around the globe. Landslides that enter fjords or lakes can cause tsunamis, which endanger people and infrastructure far from the landslide itself. Here we document the ongoing movement of an unstable slope (total volume of 455 million m 3 ) in Barry Arm, a fjord in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The slope moved rapidly between 2010 and 2017, yielding a horizontal displacement of 120 m, which is highly correlated with the rapid retreat and thinning of Barry Glacier. Should the entire unstable slope collapse at once, preliminary tsunami modeling suggests a maximum runup of 300 m near the landslide, which may have devastating impacts on local communities. Our findings highlight the need for interdisciplinary studies of recently deglaciated fjords to refine our understanding of the impact of climate change on landslides and tsunamis.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

The Polar WRF downscaled historical and projected twenty-first century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska experiencing climate and land-use changes

Lakes are dominant and diverse landscape features in the Arctic, but conventional land cover classification schemes typically map them as a single uniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centric geospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362 lakes that provides information on lake morphometry, hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics, surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other important conditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing the geospatial database relative to fish and bird survey data shows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity, which are being used to guide research and aid in the management of aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Further development of similar geospatial databases is needed to better understand and plan for the impacts of ongoing climate and land-use changes occurring across lake-rich landscapes in the Arctic.

Ambio↗

USGS2015

Depth, ice thickness, and ice-out timing cause divergent hydrologic responses among Arctic lakes

Lakes are prevalent in the Arctic and thus play a key role in regional hydrology. Since many Arctic lakes are shallow and ice grows thick (historically 2-m or greater), seasonal ice commonly freezes to the lake bed (bedfast ice) by winter's end. Bedfast ice fundamentally alters lake energy balance and melt-out processes compared to deeper lakes that exceed the maximum ice thickness (floating ice) and maintain perennial liquid water below floating ice. Our analysis of lakes in northern Alaska indicated that ice-out of bedfast ice lakes occurred on average 17 days earlier (22-June) than ice-out on adjacent floating ice lakes (9-July). Earlier ice-free conditions in bedfast ice lakes caused higher open-water evaporation, 28% on average, relative to floating ice lakes and this divergence increased in lakes closer to the coast and in cooler summers. Water isotopes ( 18 O and 2 H) indicated similar differences in evaporation between these lake types. Our analysis suggests that ice regimes created by the combination of lake depth relative to ice thickness and associated ice-out timing currently cause a strong hydrologic divergence among Arctic lakes. Thus understanding the distribution and dynamics of lakes by ice regime is essential for predicting regional hydrology. An observed regime shift in lakes to floating ice conditions due to thinner ice growth may initially offset lake drying because of lower evaporative loss from this lake type. This potential negative feedback caused by winter processes occurs in spite of an overall projected increase in evapotranspiration as the Arctic climate warms.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Interactions between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics in the response of Alaska ecosystems to fire disturbance

Soil temperature and moisture are important factors that control many ecosystem processes. However, interactions between soil thermal and hydrological processes are not adequately understood in cold regions, where the frozen soil, fire disturbance, and soil drainage play important roles in controlling interactions among these processes. These interactions were investigated with a new ecosystem model framework, the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, that incorporates an efficient and stable numerical scheme for simulating soil thermal and hydrological dynamics within soil profiles that contain a live moss horizon, fibrous and amorphous organic horizons, and mineral soil horizons. The performance of the model was evaluated for a tundra burn site that had both preburn and postburn measurements, two black spruce fire chronosequences (representing space-for-time substitutions in well and intermediately drained conditions), and a poorly drained black spruce site. Although space-for-time substitutions present challenges in model-data comparison, the model demonstrates substantial ability in simulating the dynamics of evapotranspiration, soil temperature, active layer depth, soil moisture, and water table depth in response to both climate variability and fire disturbance. Several differences between model simulations and field measurements identified key challenges for evaluating/improving model performance that include (1) proper representation of discrepancies between air temperature and ground surface temperature; (2) minimization of precipitation biases in the driving data sets; (3) improvement of the measurement accuracy of soil moisture in surface organic horizons; and (4) proper specification of organic horizon depth/properties, and soil thermal conductivity.

Alaska↗