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Geology topics

Andrea Mott

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Mott.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Mitigating risk: Predicting H5N1 avian influenza spread with an empirical model of bird movement

Understanding timing and distribution of virus spread is critical to global commercial and wildlife biosecurity management. A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) global panzootic, affecting ~600 bird and mammal species globally and over 83 million birds across North America (Dec 2023), poses a serious global threat to animals and public health. We combined a large, long-term waterfowl GPS tracking dataset (16 species) with on-ground disease surveillance data (county-level HPAIv detections) to create a novel empirical model that evaluated spatiotemporal exposure and predicted future spread and potential arrival of HPAIv via GPS tracked migratory waterfowl through 2022. Our model was effective for wild waterfowl, but predictions lagged HPAIv detections in poultry facilities and among some highly impacted non-migratory species. Our results offer critical advance warning for applied biosecurity management and planning and demonstrate the importance and utility of extensive multi-species tracking to highlight potential high-risk disease spread locations and more effectively manage outbreaks.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

Machine learned daily life history classification using low frequency tracking data and automated modelling pipelines: Application to North American waterfowl

Background Identifying animal behaviors, life history states, and movement patterns is a prerequisite for many animal behavior analyses and effective management of wildlife and habitats. Most approaches classify short-term movement patterns with high frequency location or accelerometry data. However, patterns reflecting life history across longer time scales can have greater relevance to species biology or management needs, especially when available in near real-time. Given limitations in collecting and using such data to accurately classify complex behaviors in the long-term, we used hourly GPS data from 5 waterfowl species to produce daily activity classifications with machine-learned models using “automated modelling pipelines”. Methods Automated pipelines are computer-generated code that complete many tasks including feature engineering, multi-framework model development, training, validation, and hyperparameter tuning to produce daily classifications from eight activity patterns reflecting waterfowl life history or movement states. We developed several input features for modeling grouped into three broad categories, hereafter “feature sets”: GPS locations, habitat information, and movement history. Each feature set used different data sources or data collected across different time intervals to develop the “features” (independent variables) used in models. Results Automated modelling pipelines rapidly developed easily reproducible data preprocessing and analysis steps, identification and optimization of the best performing model and provided outputs for interpreting feature importance. Unequal expression of life history states caused unbalanced classes, so we evaluated feature set importance using a weighted F1-score to balance model recall and precision among individual classes. Although the best model using the least restrictive feature set (only 24 hourly relocations in a day) produced effective classifications (weighted F1 = 0.887), models using all feature sets performed substantially better (weighted F1 = 0.95), particularly for rarer but demographically more impactful life history states (i.e., nesting). Conclusions Automated pipelines generated models producing highly accurate classifications of complex daily activity patterns using relatively low frequency GPS and incorporating more classes than previous GPS studies. Near real-time classification is possible which is ideal for time-sensitive needs such as identifying reproduction. Including habitat and longer sequences of spatial information produced more accurate classifications but incurred slight delays in processing.

Movement Ecology